What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

Danzy

The potential is significant for us, it could really hit beef farm lots very hard across the world.

Milk is cheaper to produce here than most other countries where grass fed is often not the norm.

Surviving till the arrival of the sunny uplands would be the concern for most of us.

cute geoge

Do yue seriously think that the likes of glanbia and Kerry wont be able to source Fert. If they wanted they could buy out fert. companies .They like to create panic as well though but when the time comes next year all the co op yards will have plenty of fert ,it will be a bit dearer but so will our milk price

Fanofconnacht

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117984077#Comment_117984077

They might be able to buy fertilizer co's but they will not. They will stick to their own business. Fertilizer prices will rise to balance demand \ supply. I would expect fertilizer co's to initially over egg increase and if does not stick will discount to move stock. If any shortage they will supply pro-rata their regular customers as they know shortage \ high prices will pass and will want to keep regular customers sweet. That life in any business.

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117984077#Comment_117984077

If they have forward bought already made product for jan/Feb co-op yards will be full, if not they will be whistling for it, glanbia and kerry group would be junior c and the likes of yara senior hurling with your they'll just buy them out line ffs..

Spot gas at the moment is over 35euro on the European Market today, here is the yara calculator on what they "need" per ton of fert at certain gas prices https://www.yara.com/investor-relations/analyst-information/calculators/ammonia-and-urea-cash-cost/

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117984077#Comment_117984077

If they will buy them, which is not happening.

They would want to do it now. Production will be down a third in Europe by Christmas.

In India and China it is the same, not as severe though but their production will be down as well, 40% of global phosphorus production Will not be exported, up to July next year by China.

Those 2 are by far the biggest producers in the world.

There will be significantly less fertilizer made in the next 12 months than the previous.

It's not about money, it's about getting the ingredients to make fertilizer. That's the problem, not the money side.

There are many with far deeper pockets than Kerry co-op and who would view big European fertilizer players like Yara as tiny acquisitions, thinking govt level, big agri companies in America, Asia. Kerry and glanbia together couldn't afford Yara.

For beef, tillage and most crops in Ireland next year, fertilizer will not make sense and quite a few lads who have deep pockets won't be able to buy what they want.

The EU should be telling European fertilizer companies that they will pay to close the difference, and that they will make a collective effort to get them as much gas as possible.

No company with a Whit of sense will produce fertilizer for next year at current prices or commit to contracts for next year and have no Idea if they'll have the inputs to make them.

Danzy

Spot gas at 35, and that is with a mild sept and forecast October.

Hopefully we'll have a mild winter.

Easten

I'm not going to buy any fertilizer next year. Slurry only, cut numbers and make less silage. You'd never know i might actually make a few bob from the farm besides handing a big cheque to the coop every spring for fertilizer which i believe more than half of it gets washed away with all the rain

Markcheese

A lot of American (and European ) feed for next year's milk and beef production is already in bins and silage pits - so that shouldn't mean any major slowdown in production till next summer/ autumn ...

But if they're struggling to get fertilizer for next springs plantings then they'll start dumping stock at an alarming rate... There'll be no shortage of burgers next year ..

cjpm

If the Glanbia management were running a fertiliser factory it would be like Beirut within a week ;)

Gawddawggonnit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117983407#Comment_117983407

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117983356#Comment_117983356

Ah here. If something works on 1ha it’ll work on 100ha. I’ve been speaking (on my own) for a decade now, about there being another way..and poisoning the environment will be put to a stop. Funny how a price increase brought things forward.

The dependence (addiction?) to N is startling. Jeezus for the most efficient milk producers in the world it’s easy to pull the rug out from under ye. I mean that in the most positive way.

Balance.

We got a 2cpl milk rise today.

Patience lads.

Gawddawggonnit

Vu l’état des choses vous allez devoir payer pour le fumier de canard?

Moi; Garde-le!

Text from a guy just now. He pays me to take duck slurry….’in view of the way things are you’ll have to pay for the duck slurry’. Me…’keep it!’

It’s started.

mr.stonewall

The pinch will be in the price of grain next year. Any idea are the Russian producing fertiliser at the moment. If they are, it will go either 2 ways. They will make a killing by selling it to the market or a killing on the grain exports in the winter of 2022

Does it look like we are going to have to consider a bit of self sufficiency on our grain inputs. Was tossing the idea of making a bit of whole crop in bales next year to drop the cost for meal. Not in a corn area, so maybe a runner

893bet

Will the likes of 10-10-20 at least be available do we think?

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985221#Comment_117985221

the cost of your ha out there is a lot lower than the cost of a ha out here

plus you can get a lot more of those cheaper ha to spread machinery cost over

alot of the poster boys over here practicing regen/mintill/direct drilling have substantial sfps or own feed mill/merchant companies and the followers trying to copy them then

theyre not relying on the corn for there income

go over to England and France where such systems are widely practiced 2.5t/ac of barley is a good crop

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985530#Comment_117985530

Maybe this "crisis" will cause more within the industry here to question the high input/low margin model that appears to be the basis of big dairy here??

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985524#Comment_117985524

The middle 10 will be very hard got globally next year.

GrasstoMilk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985552#Comment_117985552

What’s big dairy?

Dont follow what you mean by high input/low output?

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985585#Comment_117985585

Anyone who is milking a cow are now collectively known as "big dairy" I've noticed it creeping into conversation lately along with the the milk price is good this year and ye dairy men with slurry and fertilizer

Basically it's a dislike for dairy as we are polluting greedy ignorant selfish "big dairy"🙄🙄🙄

green daries

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985585#Comment_117985585

Low margin is from listening to us all giving out that we're not making a red cent 🤣🤣🤣👍

Gawddawggonnit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985530#Comment_117985530

There’s a fair bang of Ludditism from that post.

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985221#Comment_117985221

Enjoy your posts dwag ….but your totally downplaying the role your scale plays …and multiple enterprises

Gawddawggonnit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985690#Comment_117985690

Scale has nothing to do with it, multiple enterprises on the other hand, imho, are vital. A cow, a sow, an acre under plough.

It’s all a numbers game with ye. Horse on the cows, horse on the N etc. The talk on here about new N regs ‘breaking’ farmers is quite disturbing. Now the price increase has brought it a little closer, and there’s almost panic…

For any farm to be resilient it shouldn’t need to poison the environment to be viable, nor should it have to depend on a plentiful supply of cheap nitrogen.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985748#Comment_117985748

Truth in that as well.

Either way the future of agriculture in Ireland is for a massive reduction in fertilizer.

A transition over several years and a full stop are different though.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985657#Comment_117985657

There was a pub quiz here years ago where they asked who was the biggest farmer in the area, everyone said such and such with 900 acres.

Answer was a 6 ft 7 Man.

Gawddawggonnit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985769#Comment_117985769

A full stop would be suicidal. It takes a few years to wind it down and get the soil and the system set up.

Hopefully it will be a positive learning curve with successful results. Teagasc will now have to step up to the plate with a positive attitude. In fact, Teagasc are intrinsically important.

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985748#Comment_117985748

You have the acres to spread it over ….we don’t in farming 59 hectares …27 hectare milk block remaining spread over 5 blocks ….practices here have changed for the better ….I don’t horse out n ,I don’t have the spreader hooked up good to go 12 jan …slurry is spread throughout growing season with less on all blocks (80% between jan and may) I’ve oversown clover ,tried multi species

huge ball of money spent on yard making it labour efficient (don’t have scale for full time labour outside me )and is enviro complient ….new regs mean more slurry storage and more money to spend but I’m going to have to reduce cow nos so something will have to give ….land if u can get it is 300 plus an acre and landlord gets bps back

you do everything u can to produce food to a high standard and do your bit for the environment …..but your given a kick in the nuts here the more you do ….

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985805#Comment_117985805

I wouldn't be putting the house on teagasc pulling a rabbit out of a hat, they'll simply ramble on about mss, clover, less, and protected urea if its even available, I feel sorry for them though their going to have to write up a new play-book for next year instead of the rehashed grass to milk, and 100 units of n out before April to "set" the farm up for the year....

Are maize/wheat/barley futures rising much on the realisation of fertilizer shortages next year our are farmers even commiting to tonnages given the levels of uncertainty

Gawddawggonnit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985827#Comment_117985827

+1.

What changes will you make if N is €500t?

beachhead

late to this posting.The fish,birds etc even badgers must be happy.

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117985872#Comment_117985872

Lots lime been spread …don’t need huge amount ….ifs buts snd mabys wether n will go to levels been talked about but I’m expecting it ….will buy what I can and ration it ….slurry will be used more and diluted with parlour washings and spread with t shoe to get most I can from n content …outside of that no passengers will be kept …after that wing it 😀