What are your thoughts on the fertiliser price s for 2022

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769281#Comment_118769281

I'd love to be sitting in on co-op meetings at the minute, they've all been downright negligent in locking in fertilizer supplies, theirs going to be some drop in national milk production this year, will be interesting to see how this affects what they can pay re milk price with less product to sell and high debt repayments on stainless steel that's not been maximised

cjpm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769281#Comment_118769281

Manager in local Dairygold shop told me the same this evening

ABitofsense

My local place said similar. They've being told that they can't guarantee anymore deliveries. What they have in the yard is it for now.

FarmerBrowne

Will be alot of freisans cows hanging upside down next November.

ginger22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769250#Comment_118769250

Well the lad that supplies the barley and grass seed would be very good with sprays and disease etc.

Tileman

Co op here said they are not taking any further orders also. They want to take the heat out of things. Lads panicking and buying more than they need and it’s causing short term shortages.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769691#Comment_118769691

The thought that drives a cold sweat when I think about buying cattle for the back end of the year.

Well it's one of the many thoughts that drive a cold sweat these days.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769912#Comment_118769912

I'd have thought I'd be more worried if I was trying to sell in the backend if things continue as is...people will at least want to reduce what they winter? Some might decide to leave sheds empty altogether....you might be able to buy to buy away to your hearts content?

Packrat

Anyone have any intel on whether blackstrap molasses and it's derivatives will jump in price soon or later this year?

Plenty feed buckets to be had at the moment and they'd stack and store well for 12 months...

Just thinking ahead.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118770546#Comment_118770546

That is my intention. Big bulk crop first of June. Done with slurry and a tonne of urea. Fill for next year over the year remainder. Understocked currently, grew nervous last year about inputs and killed animals for last December in January instead and did not replace. I Also fuxked up wiring around bales and had them damage more than anyone should see.

The cattle killed this year would want to do well. I've a lot of repairs to do this year, storm damage, rewire the place, and on and on.

I'm a worrier by nature I suppose. The numbers this year are hard to plan for confidently.

Birdnuts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118767203#Comment_118767203

The industrial farming lobby COPGEA speaking out of both sides of its mouth on this over the past week - on the one hand wants environmental measures scrapped, while also pushing for even more of the best tillage land to be lost to the biofuel scam across the EU!!

farmertipp

dairygold haven't had a board meeting yet. I would have expected an emergency meeting to get to grips with managing situation and giving guidance and communicating with farmers. the board of 5 r 10 ys ago would be all over this at this stage

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769336#Comment_118769336

How have they been negligent. Two months ago we had lads on that the fertilizer price going up was a scam. They were telling us that to hold tough it would be ok prices would fall in April.

TBF co-ops seemed to indicated from the start of the year that what was in there yards had to be sold before they could buy more. Lots of farmers market aught it was a competition as to who would blink first.

Now you have the opposite lads trying to buy next year's fertlizer. There would have been enormous risk sourcing all the fertlizer required for your co-op in December/ January. Farmer myself included buy where it can s cheapest. Most expected that as we got out later in the year prices would soften slightly.

A 100k tons of fertlizer sourced last December would cost 75 million. If prices dropped by 10% it would be a 7.5 million loss. Farmers who were not willing to buy 6-8 weeks ago are now cribbing that co-ops should have bought when they were unwilling to.

amacca

My main crib is farmers can't set prices like the oil merchants, agri merchants etc.....not a hope of them lads losing money or surviving on break even/less for years on end

Their input goes up, the price they charge you goes up so margin can be preserved and thats being generous imo.... my inputs go up I might get no more than last year or less

And yet everyone needs food as much if not more really than oil.....

Pisses me off that we cant organise a little opec and control supply/set prices so we can stay in it........but oil merchants can, they are nearly as crucial as food it seems but there's no arrangement that has the boot on their throat to the same degree.....all I can do is reduce numbers and worry about some price pen pusher using my stocking rate as some sort of reference to beat me with in subsequent years when their might be a couple of euros in actually carrying some animals etc

In fact one of the oil merchants I've been dealing with recently quoted a price about 3 weeks and told me twice since they were on the way and would honour the price....only to completely **** me up and cost me 000s by insisting on the current price today.......and they will get away with it too...although I do believe what goes around comes around....not a hope of a price taker farmer getting to act the price like that if he's selling produce

And yes I know its multi faceted and not really an apples for apples comparison and in many ways we have ourselves to blame.....we are morons for not demanding a fair share of revenue from the product produced and the hard work that goes into it and seeing to it we get it rather than being advised to death and given subsistence payments to keep producing at a loss so people can have cheap food and look down their noses at the people who make it for them....

jaymla627

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771526#Comment_118771526

Isn't assumption the mother of all ****-ups, their was a ignorance on the part of co-ops and farmers alike who despite two years of covid and all the signs of the breakdown of supply chains and historically high shipping rates plus capacity, co-ops took the view awh sure it will be time enough ordering in a few boats of cheap urea in February when the price drops, the 7.5 million example would of been a small price to pay for what's about to unfold to dairy co-ops milk supply and the fallout from this heading into 23, glanbia for example had no bother finding 300 odd million to buy out the pic's share of the co-op, but then didn't make any attempt to lock in fertilizer supplies for their suppliers instead they left it to the importers to carry the can its farcical

Cavanjack

I suppose the gas price did fall back from the start of the year and maybe fertilizer would have came back in price by now only for the war. I do agree though (especially the larger dairy farmers) how could they leave it till now to start buying.

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771990#Comment_118771990

Tbf jay ….Russians invading Ukraine has foiked the whole thing up and made Covid look like a walk in the park ….the disruption it has caused and will is far greater than Covid …..and no one bar putin saw it comming ….yes there were signs but it threw a whole new massive variable into the mix ….gas prices were easing after Christmas and positive signs re fertiliser prices by April may then putin just went and foiked it all up

ginger22

text message this morning from IFA grain commitee. wheat old crop 400 ton, new crop 320 ton, barley old crop 400 ton new crop 320 ton, maize old crop 400 ton new crop 325 ton, soya old crop 630 ton new crop 590 ton, fertilizer pasture, cut 1180 ton, 18s 1050, Yarra bulk wholesale CAN cif 950 ton.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772085#Comment_118772085

Because if a lot of larger dairy farmers have expanded on credit, borrowings and overdraft faculities. Remember the borrowings that the Greenacre project was carrying at the start. Earlier in the year merchants and co-op's were insisting on payment up front so that they could find further purchase of fertlizer.

As well a lot of larger dairy farmers fancy themselves as shrewd business people. In this case many were leaving it to the last minute to buy because they taught there would be pressure on co-ops to drop off he price.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771080#Comment_118771080

The wars over resources will kick off first, then the interethnic conflicts, then the famines

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118771990#Comment_118771990

Hindsight is 20/20 vision. Any yes co-op and merchants did not order as much as usual in December. However neither were farmers exactly rushing into the co-op to buy what was in stock until last week. I know more than one business man that farms that only runs into the local co-op to pick up his pallet or two of fertlizer a few days before he spreads it. Would they do it elsewhere in there business.

Any co-op or merchant that had committed late last year to buy all there supply would have got it in the neck if fertlizer fell by 200/ ton in March/ April and that stock had to be sold at a substantial loss and that affected milk price by 1-2c/ L.

mahoney_j

The level and lack of advice from tegasc /farmers journal and there dairy advisors is alarming now as well ….this situation isn’t going to resolve itself v quick ….meal prices and availability havnt been mentioned yet ….reports of v tight supplies of straights and poor quality imports been rejected are doing the rounds ….450/500 a tonne been mooted for next month and a very very tight supply of grains for next winter …if we get a dry summer we won’t all be able to load up on bulls /palm or beet pulp

a massive push should now be on to get farmers to drastically improve there silage quality ….and look at real alternatives like maize ,wholecrop and beet ….instead we’re listening to clovers and mss….there long term solutions and little benefit will be seen this year

newholland mad

And in fairness all the indicators were even up until early February that it would drop nicely. World urea prices were down to the high 500s . Simple as this since mid December there was ample fertiliser to be got with some even giving a few months credit but some gambled it dropping which would have paid off only for putin.

Reggie.

In fairness I did the dog and bought 25% extra fert this year. A total of 1.25 ton. In the big leagues here lads

blackdog1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772215#Comment_118772215

Agree with everything you said. That being said I'm still gonna experiment with mss this year on 4 acres because if fertilizer is a problem next year and I have no other choice but to grow this, I want to have confidence in it from my own experience.

mahoney_j

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772276#Comment_118772276

Hence more long term …did one paddock last year …all in all I’m happy with it down in April with 2 bags gran lime 2 10 10 20 all it got after that was parlour washings 1500 gallons after each grazing …..soil tested in January index 3 p index 4 k no lime needed and always a real healthy colour …will do another paddock this year

cjpm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772252#Comment_118772252

You fcuked it up for everyone else Reggie you hoor 😂

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772236#Comment_118772236

At those figures a co-op that committed 100 million to over buying fertlizer early in the year would have had a loss of 45-45 million on that tranaction. I am sure all those large dairy farmers would have forgiven them for the couple cent/ litre it reduced there milk price by.

On a 200/ cow herd milking 5.5k litre that 2c/ L is 22k. Ya there would have been no issue with that. These larger operators would have just said '"we understand it was just a hedging that went wrong''.........just like now it's easy to blame them for not doing it.

nklc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772215#Comment_118772215

Did the minister not ask us to look into making plans to avoid a fodder shortage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118772327#Comment_118772327

Best way to avoid that is to de-stock now, while others are still dithering.