"Green" policies are destroying this country

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122257058#Comment_122257058

Yup. If only it would stop at 200Bn. That would be actually fantastic as that is very conservative estimate.

With project that size stretching up for over a decade or few, the end amount may actually be multiple of that.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122257377#Comment_122257377

These are just his quoted figures (where is his source?). Any extra capacity is going to cost money.

Also they don't take into account the carbon taxes penalties this country will pay if we don't move away from fossil fuel generation. Do they take into account the economies of scale generated by such a large scale development? The pro fossil fuel people don't mention these real costs.

What would happen in a global war scenario at least we would have a source of electricity independent of oil/fossil fuel?

See below re penalties

https://www.socialdemocrats.ie/ireland-facing-billions-in-fines-because-of-governments-failure-to-meet-climate-targets/

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262162#Comment_122262162

There’s no co2 emissions with nuclear

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262181#Comment_122262181

Not true but granted it is very small due to indirect emissions.

AllForIt

https://x.com/IrishTimes/status/1801874679290073415

Does anyone know when this extreme heat is gonna hit? I'm been browsing the fashion stores looking at all the lovely summer shorts on offer but reluctant to purchase just yet as I'm not convinced I'm gonna need them at all. No I'm not gonna need them for a summer holiday either as I've decided to cut my yearly flight count from 1 to 0. Just doing my bit.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262216#Comment_122262216

Short answer is no. Parts of mainland Europe are getting record temperatures for this time of year. See below for general scientific opinion.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/health-harming-heat-stress-rising-europe-scientists-say-2024-04-22/

Dr Turk Turkelton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262162#Comment_122262162

Well can we at least see your quoted figures and source so?

At least the poster gave us something not a whole load of bullsh!t.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262215#Comment_122262215

Wind generators and solar panels and batteries don’t grow on trees in China

If anything their production and concrete requirements are insane, and that’s before we get to rare earths

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262297#Comment_122262297

The bigger the wind farm you build, the cheaper the cost per MW of generation capacity. The rule of thumb used to be $2 million per MW, but it’s been dropping steadily. I don’t have 2021 figures at hand, but it’s closer to $1,000
now obviously. No bull.

https://www.quora.com/What-would-be-the-cost-of-building-enough-wind-turbines-to-output-1-000-MW-of-electricity

Seems a lot less that the 200Bn mentioned, especially as the technology develops and economies of scale are taken into account.

Dr Turk Turkelton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262317#Comment_122262317

Thank you for your costings. Appreciate taking the time for a response.

saabsaab

https://www.windtech-international.com/windtech-future/wind-versus-oil

More above re costs and benefits.

Dr Turk Turkelton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262252#Comment_122262252

We are currently in Southern Europe and it has been mid to high 20's all week with a significant drop to mid teens at night.

Absolutely wonderful weather- if we could only get it in Ireland we would be the greatest tourist destination in the world.

Apparently the week before last was cold and wet though.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262216#Comment_122262216

Tut, tut, Not good enough, clothes shopping is an eco-sin, ye should all be wearing sackcloth and ashes, for the planet. 🌍️

I could do with heat in my garden to bring my vegetables on a bit, this cool, damp weather (in June) has them lagging. Typical lazy click bait opinion piece from the Irish Times, newspapers publish any old sh!te once it complies with the climate narrative set by the "paper of record" editorial staff. Well, at least the "journalist" gets paid. It's easy, point to the hedge planted around your property 5 years ago to show your green credentials, cite a dodgy study (2015) that tangentially aligns with what you want to say, grab some quotes and hey presto, hit submit, the content management system (CMS) reviewer can approve (do they even look), all without having to leave the comfort of your home.

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262317#Comment_122262317

Same works for nuclear

Except I clearly posted prices from the most recent offshore project signed only a couple of weeks ago that almost double the LCOE of most expensive nuclear project in UK

The costs for offshore wind went up 70% in last year, with many projects being cancelled and likes of Orsted verging on bankruptcy

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262357#Comment_122262357

” Published: 01 January 2017”

And discusses onshore wind not the much more expensive offshore wind 37GW Ireland is planning to build

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262162#Comment_122262162

If you wanted to know the source then why did you not ask me ?

Could it possibly be because they have been posted on this thread and others so often that you were already aware of the figures and they showed how wrong you were. Either way they are from BVA Associates who provide strategic consulting in renewable energy, focusing on wind. https://guidetoanoffshorewindfarm.com/wind-farm-costs. .

Those were the costs a few years ago for the U.K. in sterling and before the recent 60-70% increase in costs that had cmpanies in the U.K. and worldwide pulling out of projects and the U.K. being unable to secure any bids for future offshore offering. BVA Associates have also provided consultation services for Ryan`s department, but for some strange reason he does not appear to have asked them how much his 37 GW offshore/hydrogen plan would cost.

The rest of your posts are pretty much B.S. Your economy of scale on reducing costs died a death sometime ago and was buried when costs rose by 60—70%. The cost has not been "dropping steadily", it has been rising exponentially and I would not look at posts from randomers on Quora as a reliable source for offshore wind capital costs, no more than I would from Meitheal Na Gaoithe unless you can provide a cost for a wind farm they have built offshore.

Again if you had taken the trouble to read through this thread or others here in relation to this proposed 37 GW offshore/hydrogen 2050 insanity, or even listened to what Eamon Ryan recently had to admit that 25% of that plan is not even technically possible you would know that from Eirgrid`s predictions of our demands for electricity we are going to fall somewhere short of 6 GW with this lunacy. That is why we will be paying penalties in the billions annually on top of the fortune wasted on this proposal for no benifits.

zerosquared

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/equinor-bp-seek-54-hike-us-offshore-wind-power-price-filings-show-2023-08-31/

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67430888

Some of the projects mentioned above were completely cancelled

The last offshore wind project as per link I posted higher up page, is almost double per MWh than nuclear, and that’s bottom attached offshore

Eamon wants 70% of the 37GW to be the much more expensive floating kind

machiavellianme

Double post.

The poor environment. Sorry.

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262317#Comment_122262317

So it used to be 2 million dollars per MW but is closer to one thousand dollars per MW now? What?

In an era of massive inflation, you think costs have reduced by 99.95%?

I think there might be some bull!

zerosquared

nuclear is about 90-100$ per MWh as i illustrated earlier (Koreans done it for 70 in UAE in 10 years and now doing same in Poland)

here is a report from this year from DOE

Notice their target of 100GW by 2050 compared to our one of 37, this is an economy thats 42x our size and actually has ships, ports, offshore industry and worlds largest pool of offshore engineering talent

Notice the 2x larger cost for offshore wind and how little actually installed ever as floating kind

reference: https://liftoff.energy.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Liftoff-Report-Offshore-Wind-Web2.pdf

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122262952#Comment_122262952

Should be 1,000,000 not 1,000!

saabsaab

Never mind the UK..They have their own agendas especially after Brexit. You must be aware that they won't have to pay carbon penalties now they also have a large nuclear industry.

Europe installed 18.3 GW of new wind power capacity in 2023. The EU-27 installed 16.2 GW of this, a record amount but only half of what it should be building to meet its 2030 climate and energy targets.

79% of the new wind capacity built in Europe last year was onshore. The volume of new offshore installations is growing – last year it was a record 3.8 GW in Europe. But 2/3rds of the new wind installations up to 2030 will continue to be onshore.

We expect Europe to install 260 GW of new wind power capacity over 2024-2030. The EU-27 should install 200 GW of this – 29 GW a year on average. To meet its 2030 climate and energy targets the EU now needs to
build 33 GW a year on average. We therefore expect the EU to fall around 30 GW short of its 425 GW ambition needed to meet the 42.5% renewable energy target.

Ireland due to its position on the Atlantic shore should be at the leading edge of this.

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264208#Comment_122264208

Why should Ireland be at the leading edge? Surely it's better to build capacity beside where it is used?

If we installed 37GW of offshore wind, how do we get it to Europe (since we need less than 10GW ourselves)? That would be at considerable cost. Then comes the question - why would Europe want our expensive wind when they can produce their own cheaper?

We're already importing electricity from GB while it's windy here. That's including paying for the transport costs over the interconnectors. If anything, we should just build interconnectors and pick up whatever the continent doesn't want. It'd be cheaper.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264466#Comment_122264466

It's not all about currrent costs and we are part of the EU unlike the UK. Oil and gas is limited and is being phased out. Our own power gives us security into the future unlike gas and oil.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264208#Comment_122264208

We are incapable of operating an NPP, a system of energy generation that has ben around and in operation for decades but we are going to be world leader in the developement and operation of green hydrogen production where noboby has a clue or if it would even work and now we should also be at the cutting edge of Atlantic wind generation. The logic behind that escapes me I`m afraid. But no matter.

How you missed it I do not know, but 25% of that 2050 37GW plan was for floating wind terminals off the West and Southwest coast. Eamon Ryan has now admitted that it is not even technically possible and will not be for the next 20 years if ever. Not difficult to see why, the U.K. had two such arrays. First one turned to mush and the second,the Hywind array, in the North Sea is being towed lock stock and barrel to Norway this summer for "heavy maintenance" that would be unsafe to carry out in situ after just 7 years into a siupposed 27 year lifespan and Atlantic storm waves are on average 50% higher than those of the North Sea.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264574#Comment_122264574

There is more coal, gas and oil being consumed worldwide than ever before. The demand for materials and energy is growing with the population, the future is going to be the above primary energy sources + wind + solar + nuclear. If the engineers solve the problems with fusion, then nuclear fusion becomes an option. Electricity is only one part of our energy consumption.

The Haber-Bosch process is key to feeding >3 billion of todays world population. Almost all the products we used today are in some way derived from oil processing. There is likely to be a glut of oil by the end of the decade according to the IEA reported in the Financial Times this week. Oil and gas are here to stay.

States across the world do not care about EU governments policies that restrict EUs own citizens and industries access to primary energy sources, politicians across the EU and Britain have signed their populations up to targets that cannot be reached in the time frames allocated, realpolitik dictates these will be rolled back as people push back and continue to vote against the incumbents who devised this net zero economic suicide pact.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264652#Comment_122264652

Are you sure of those statements. According to this recent report the Hywind is back in action after maintenance earlier this year!

https://www.power-technology.com/data-insights/power-plant-profile-hywind-scotland-pilot-park-uk/?cf-view

Also where has Eamonn Ryan admitted it is not technically possible?

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264703#Comment_122264703

Perhaps mankind is then more interested in an actual suicide pact in the destruction of our habitable environment. Fossil fuels for energy production is just not sustainable per the science. All the more so as mankind uses more and more of a non-renewable resource.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264712#Comment_122264712

I didn`t say it wasn`t still their on May 1st. I said according to Equinor the whole array has to be towed to Norway this Summer for "heavy maintenance" after just 7 years into a supposedly 27 year life span.

You really need to do a bit of research rather than posting articles from internet randomers that suit your agenda. Eamon Ryan`s statement was cover by the Irish Examiner, among other mainstream media,1st May 2024

machiavellianme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122264574#Comment_122264574

1. Current costs are likely as cheap as its going to get. Every green state in the world is vying for the same raw materials, boats, people concurrently and that isn't likely to reduce prices for Ireland who have nothing indigenous.
2. We aren't yet connected to the EU so all imports are via GB till at least 2026.
3. When we are connected to the EU, why should we spend more money to have our own when we can get it cheaper from our neighbours? (isn't that the logic we follow for oil and gas)
4. We could have far more security if we explored for aforementioned oil and gas ourselves. They are dependable, unlike wind and solar. Why are you so gung ho on an intermittent technology?