"Green" policies are destroying this country

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122288438#Comment_122288438

Costs are changing all the time you can't predict the future cost of any power at least with wind generated we know its clean and we avoid billions in carbon penalties.

Wind generation will not stay in its current form either this may be a gamechanger in the near future.

https://newatlas.com/energy/airloom-energy-wind-track/

Potentially a third of the cost!

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122288438#Comment_122288438

Time and time again most of the arguments wheeled out about nuclear power are not nuclear-specific. Hinkley Point C problems are down to the UK having a poor record with civil engineering projects, with HS2 having much the same story.

saabsaab

Governments not just the west are investing heavily in Wind generation are they all misinformed or unaware of the costs?

'In the Taiwan Strait, off the coast of Chaozhou – a city in China’s
Guangdong province – China is planning the world’s largest wind farm.
Located between 75 and 185 kilometres offshore, the ten-kilometre-long
farm will feature thousands of powerful turbines, adding up to a total
of a 43.3 gigawatt – enough to power a small European country. Because
of the windy location, the turbines are expected to run between 43 per
cent and 49 per cent of the time. Work on the project will start before
2025 and, once completed, it will eclipse the world’s current largest
wind farm, the Jiuquan Wind Power base in China'

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291190#Comment_122291190

It is getting a bit childish this continually pointing at Hinkley while ignoring other NPPs that have been built or contracts signed for at a fraction of the price of Hinkley. Especially when a contract for wind has just been signed for New York which has the same strike price as Hinkley.

It`s the same as this favouring a proposed plan that they cannot or will not put costings too while attempting to ignore real world verifiable costs that show, for just a section of it, how financially unviable it is.,

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291180#Comment_122291180

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuxbMfKO9Pg

There is one born every minute. Once upon a time some people were obsessed with perpetual motion machines, these days it's all about batteries and various unreliable electrical generation or carbon capture schemes. Bill Gates has spare change to throw at these projects, this does not mean the product gets delivered. Meantime check out Betz's law, next time you see a press release about "potential" wind turbines "breakthough". Until someone has delivered an actual project that does what it says on the tin, ignore the hype merchants press releases or at least parse them very carefully, the end goal is usually the same "investors" or more often "taxpayers", buy this thing.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291276#Comment_122291276

Another article about nuclear. Does it make sense for a non-nuclear power? Military support its adoption in spite of costs. It may even contribute to its cost.

https://theconversation.com/military-interests-are-pushing-new-nuclear-power-and-the-uk-government-has-finally-admitted-it-216118

saabsaab

Another 10Gw wind farm. Note the amount of fuel saved yearly! That's by my maths is 130Bn saved without counting Carbon Penalties. Also 120,000 jobs during its construction phase and an estimated 45,000–75,000 indirect jobs!

https://www.power-technology.com/news/acwa-power-10gw-wind-egypt/?cf-view

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291551#Comment_122291551

Again no clue as to what point you are trying to make, but we would not be contributing to it`s cost through our military.

TBH I got as far as just after "Fight back against disinformation. Get your news here. Direct from experts." encouraging sign-up for their newsletter, when the next line stated "Even before wind and solar costs plummeted…." and lost any belief in their self proclaimed experts.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291812#Comment_122291812

Its cheaper for nuclear powers per Kw if their militaries purchase the by products or directly fund them. We won't have such an option unless we want to develop nuclear weapons.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291583#Comment_122291583

Again no idea as to what point you are trying to make, other than Egypt not being daft enough to put all their eggs in a wind hydrogen basket.

Egypt are presently building a nuclear power plant with 4.8 GW nameplate capacity that will save the same if not more fossil fuel use and carbon penalties, Carbon emissions penalties that are not applicable to Egypt anyway as they are not an E.U. state.

In fact as far as I know Egypt does not even have an explicate carbon tax, nor a CO2 emissions trading system.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291858#Comment_122291858

So you want to point to "expert" on costs that somehow believe the cost of wind has plummeted ?

Sorry but I prefer dealing in the world of reality rather than one of fantasy based on an agenda

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291876#Comment_122291876

Egypt doesn't but we do.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291930#Comment_122291930

Not according to this. Nuclear power station here is a fantasy at least in the short term.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/wind/offshore-wind-power-production-cost-drops-60-over-last-decade-orsted/36713

Even though this is 2022 it shows a trend over time. All costs have risen recently due to the war and the covid crisis.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122292210#Comment_122292210

Will you ever do yourself and everyone else a favour and stop posting out of date nonsense.

Turbine manufacturers were losing billions in 2022 and Gamesa went bust while greens were still whittling on about prices going to drop due to economy of scale. In 2023 wind companies were pulling out of contracts world-wide and the U.K. and the U.K could not get a single offer for their offshore offers forcing them to raise the ceiling by 66%.

This rubbish that all material and construction costs rose by 60% - 70% is just that, rubbish. Offshore wind created an inflation bubble all of it`s own. I have already given you real world examples of the cost. New York from just fixed bottom turbines with a strike price the same of Hinkley Point, ( the most expensive NPP that greens can find while ignoring any others),and Taiwan paying €6 Bn. for a nameplate capacity from the same.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122292210#Comment_122292210

Capacity factors of the entire wind fleet in the EU and UK were 24% on average, a 3% decrease on 2020. Capacity factors for onshore were 23% (down from 25% in 2020), while for offshore they fell significantly from 42% to 35% over 2021. source

Pat Fenlon pointed to "unprecedented rises in wholesale gas prices" which "have risen over 1000% over the past 18 months". He told the Joint Committee on Environment and Climate Action that two years ago, Electric Ireland's annual wholesale energy costs were €300m, and are now expected to hit €2bn. source

Did the unit rate on your electricity bill drop 60% in that time? Nothing to do with Covid lockdowns. In 2021, there was an extended cold weather Spring, that meant more gas consumed than a typical season, during Summer 2021 Europe experienced a Wind drought (turns out the wind does not always blow somewhere), this meant more gas consumed than expected for electrical generation, In most years there is surplus gas and combined with easy money policies (ECB negative interest rates) a lot of leveraged players would bid on the surplus gas contracts ahead of Winter demand. This time their cunning plan backfired, there was no surplus gas and prices shot up, the leveraged players went bust. Their previous customers found themselves without a gas or electricity energy supplier and got hammered on their bills being forced onto suppliers of last resort. All this happened before the Russians invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Wind and solar generation in Ireland and elsewhere across Europe is entirely dependent on gas and coal powered plants to match generation supply with demand.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122292423#Comment_122292423

Hornsea phase 4 is going ahead despite difficulties, output is unknown due to the ever increasing size of available wind turbines. Doesn't sound like a dead duck, does it?

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122292617#Comment_122292617

It got planning premission, but no work is scheduled to start until next year. Have they even got a strike price ? I could not find it and I cannot see them doing any work without one.

The Hornsea 4 proposal has a nameplate capacity of 2.6 GW. The capex for the turbines will be over €11.6 Bn. for around 1.2 GW (over €9.5 Bn. per GW). For a 20 -25 year lifespan I cannot see the strike price being cheap with a profit margin being added on top of that capex cost.

Especially when you see New York paying the same strike price for wind as the Hinkley strike price and Olkiluoto being able to deliver 1.5 GW, irrespective of weather, for a one off capex of €11 Bn. (€7.33 Bn.per GW) for a 60 year lifespan.

patnor1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122287532#Comment_122287532

Green hydrogen is the same as green biomass eu currently use.

Nothing green about it.

As for the wind - this picture and our government nonsensical push for it pretty much sums it up.

Oscar_Madison

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122287222#Comment_122287222

I have to say, I like this thread a lot. It’s great to see people debating the future of energy generation which of course is also the future of our country and indeed the world.

What this thread has brought home to me personally, is that I’ve not taken way enough interest in this topic and I’m probably not alone. I couldn’t possibly challenge anyone’s figures or stance on the future of where we’ll find our energy reserves from in 20 years from now- and what the impact will be on me personally- that’s my fault for not doing enough reading up.

It’s clear though that such an important topic can’t be outsourced to the Green Party - like it or not every government party needs to have this on their agenda - it impacts every individual but especially the poor and the vulnerable of our society. The larger parties like FF and FG need to convince the less fortunate in society that the burdens of future energy costs won’t be placed at the doors of those who can least afford it - but I think society needs also to accept that unless you’re in the privileged position of being able to afford home solar that the days of cheap or cheaper energy are gone.

I hope the concepts and impacts of climate change can be translated into more simple terms for the citizens of Ireland -there’s lots of support material already - yes absolutely there is and I’ve read a lot of it- but the challenges and specifics for Ireland need to be called out more- I think that will help bring more people to the debating table and thats not a bad thing.

thatsdaft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122292210#Comment_122292210

2022

…

2024

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/offshore-wind-developer-orsted-trims-investments-targets-major-review-2024-02-07/

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122293618#Comment_122293618

True it's nor just for the Green party it's too big for any one party. I believe that this is like the state's brave decision (and it was brave then) to push ahead with a new technology to supply electricity is similar to what is faced now with wind energy. Who know s the financial and energy situation in a year not to talk of 20 years.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122299556#Comment_122299556

Unless Ryan`s prospecting licences granted for exploring gold and silver hit paydirt and we nationalise a find as big as the Klondike, it`s not going to change in a year that it is financially unviable.

If it takes 20 years to find that Klondike, the bailiffs will have title to it long before then if we continue with this all wind/hydrogen plan.

Pa ElGrande

Tata Steel refutes any back-tracking on Port Talbot closure despite Labour party seeking renewed talks

Vauxhall owner threatens to close UK car factories

It has also threatened to reduce the number of petrol and diesel cars it sells in the UK.
The warning dramatically escalates a dispute with the Government over the so-called zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which requires car makers to sell rising proportions of electric cars annually.
From this year, at least 22pc of cars they sell must be electric and the figure rises gradually to 80pc by 2030. In 2035 the sale of new petrol and diesel cars will then be banned. source

Denmark to charge farmers €100 a cow in first carbon tax on agriculture from 2030.

Denmark’s parliament is expected to vote to approve the tax later this year, which has a headline rate of DKr300 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent in 2030, rising to DKr750 per tonne CO₂ equivalent in 2035. There are built-in incentives for farmers to reduce emissions, and the tax will be phased in with a basic tax deduction of 60 per cent for at least the first two years. source

We can have a modern, advanced economy or we can have net zero. We cannot have both. Our neighbours can no longer produce steel. They will no longer produce cars within a few years, the EV suits one segment of the market, most of the public are not impressed by the inconvenience of using them day to day. There is an election in the UK, the car company above is grandstanding in advance of the election trying to avoid the fines. Rather than mess around with their government, they should close down right now, as the saying goes if they want to play stupid games, they can win stupid prizes.

Larbre34

Well said.

And besides, only with an advanced and growing economy can we afford to innovate and invest in carbon divestment from the very top down, ie our sources of energy.

Not doing that means every other measure is just pissing into the wind.

ps200306

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122291224#Comment_122291224

Governments not just the west are investing heavily in Wind generation are they all misinformed or unaware of the costs?

It's a combination of being misinformed and not caring about the costs. The green movement has been wildly successful in whipping up fear in the general populace, and revolutionary zeal in the youth. Political parties are faced with the impossible balancing act of not damaging the environment, not damaging the economy, and not damaging their vote. Most of the public insist on the first two without any real idea of the trade-offs involved. Again, the green movement has sold them a pup with the idea that they can have the best of all worlds. (The "best world" for some greens is a dark place in which we are all punished for our collective sins against the planet. For anyone who has never been to an all-green talking shop, I encourage it — it's an eye-opener).

So yes, governments are giving their confused publics the future they didn't realise they were asking for: one with far higher energy costs and taxes, less energy security and resilience, and a deteriorating business environment. Ironically, it is also a future with less resilience to climate change, while also doing diddly squat for climate change mitigation.

One thing is for sure. Western self-flagellation does not contribute meaningfully to climate change avoidance. Our energy markets allow for more expensive energy at the margins. There is a place for wind generation but it will merely be added to overall increasing energy demand. Low carbon energy generation does not displace one molecule of CO2. Only the actual retirement of fossil fuels does that. In twenty years, renewables have slightly increased their share of total energy. That total itself has soared, so we have increasing renewables and increasing CO2 emissions.

Greens imagine a future in which increasing renewables share eventually overtakes demand increase, and emissions finally peak. Western publics looking at targets of 80% renewables penetration are being bamboozled into thinking this will be the case. There are two reasons it's not going to happen. First, western economies will crack under the strain before those targets are reached, provoking the anti-green backlash that we are already seeing the start of. Second, the locus of emissions increases is not in the West. Developing economies don't care about your green guilt. They care about your standard of living and, not unreasonably, aspire to the same for themselves.

Low carbon energy will not displace fossil fuels until it is cheaper than fossil fuels. That means cheaper than coal in an economy with no carbon taxes, not the sort of artificial situation we have in the West. There is no low carbon energy source that fits the criterion today. In the battle between wind and nuclear, only one of them has the chance of being that source. Nuclear would need a revolution in standards of both production and regulation. But at least it is sufficiently energy dense and has the potential to provide process heat as well. Windpower doesn't stand a chance from the get go. It's a luxury good that relies on government support and subsidies, and is cynically exploited by ravenous capital.

One last note. In some cases the public are not just lied to but actually defrauded. Germany, a country that once derived one third of its electricity from nuclear, shut down its last three operating plants in 2022. Those three plants were still producing 6% of electricity and it was not only the lowest cost energy available at 3c/kWh but also the "greenest". After sunk costs nuclear power is incredibly cheap to operate, and it can continue to do so for decades after its pay-back period. Junior green ministers in the German government took this information and rewrote reports to portray nuclear power as unjustifiable on technical and security grounds. I'm a fan of the EU in general but not if it means hitching our wagon to a bunch of German eco-loons.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/german-greens-minister-robert-habeck-under-fire-over-2022-nuclear-shutdown/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/26/german-greens-lying-nuclear-power-safety-plant-shutdown/

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122308154#Comment_122308154

The number of people a EV doesn't suit is small, most people seem to disregard an EV because 1-2 times a year they might drive a longer distance than normal. So they make a decision on a car based on 1-2% of the overall car usage. It's ridiculous.

Like any new technology people have fear, which is increased by all the noise across all the web/tv/media by people who don't really understand the technology either but claim to be expert.

Even today you could swap out 1 car in every house with 2 cars and have zero impact to that household. You wouldn't even need more public chargers as all the charging would be done at home overnight.

By the way Im not suggesting they get rid of combustion or diesel, they have their uses as well.

Its a car at the end of day and a fuel, not sure why people are so hung up over it. Buy one, don't buy one but the constant whinging and moaning about them. Time to cop on a bit

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122308978#Comment_122308978

I've ordered popcorn from Amazon, expecting a Mexican standoff between the UK Labour government, the car producers and the establishment who have created the laws. White van man and the unions are going to be the deciding factor, the legislation will be kicked down the road and the Tories blamed for stupid policies, despite Labour fully endorsing the same policies to appeal to their upper middle class voters, the popcorn from Amazon will be delivered by diesel powered van.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122309183#Comment_122309183

What does a delivery van have to do with anything? This is the sort of ridiculous nonsense we see around electric

If Amazon deliver in Dublin using electric vans and outside using diesel so be it. Why do you care?

England isn’t a huge car manufacturing country anymore and that has nothing to do with electric cars

BluePlanet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122293618#Comment_122293618

"but I think society needs also to accept that unless you’re in the privileged position of being able to afford home solar that the days of cheap or cheaper energy are gone."

But why are they gone? Fossil fuels have plenty of road. People in power are making political and ideological decisions that effect our ability to access cheap sources of energy. Those politics and those positions can change.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122309627#Comment_122309627

What happens in the UK matters very much to us. Where they go we must follow, we have dependencies for fuel supplies (gas, petrol & diesel). We drive on the same side of the road, if car companies are not making vehicles for the UK market then our options are cut to second hand Japanese imports.

The British government has implemented perverse incentives for vehicle production, 22% of car and van sales have to be EVs this year, (80% by 2030) the car companies are fined for not meeting those targets.

EV sales are not doing the business, private companies cannot keep losing money. The UK motor industry as a whole cannot afford to pay the hundreds of millions in fines coming their way at the end of the year. The only option open to them is to cut back on production of internal combustion (ICE) cars, in order to get back to the 22% target. This means job losses and if it continues and the cessation of production in the UK, it also means that any ICE vehicles are destined for the UK market and the supply to us cut.

White vans matter a lot, the primary customers are tradesmen and self employed delivery men. Consider the practical day to day operations for tradespeople using electric vans.

1. Their daily operational range is limited to a radius around their homes. Where there is no charging infrastructure at the site, they cannot operate outside their radius.

2. The vans tend to be loaded up with tools and also used to haul 8' x 4' sheets of ply or plasterboard or insulation. Plus ladders, lengths of piping or 2" x 3" timber lengths on top. that affects the range, plus unexpected runs to the builders merchants to get odds and ends as needed.

3. Weather has an impact, nice to have the air con on a cold day, or during the tea break on site. short on range, that's a cold journey home in the dark.


EVs suit An Post, being tax efficient,, their business model has set routes and allows for overnight charging at the depot. Consider the self employed man with a van guys, the charge dictates the range, they are not paid to stand around charging stations to complete journeys. Consider that next time you order goods online, the man with the diesel van and truck is what makes that all happen.