"Green" policies are destroying this country

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994136#Comment_118994136

You don't know that SF will need another party because the next GE has not taken place yet.

SF was, I think, trying to put together a coalition government and some Green TDs owed their seats to SF transfers.

I'm a floating voter. The idea that floating voters exist is often a strange one to dedicated supporters of political parties. The three parties that seem to be getting slagged off the most are those in government. Do Green Party supporters condone every move by this government?

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994260#Comment_118994260

Yes yes, we have a lot of "floating voters" around boards who spent the entire time slagging off every party except Sinn Fein. A

I have yet to see any Green Party member agree with every policy they have, but I have seen loads of "floating voters" spend a significant period of time slagging them off and calling them every name under the sun. Strange carry on when the green are a junior member of the government

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994396#Comment_118994396

How dare they! :) I'm sure that the loyal subjects of the cabbage king will be upset with all this criticism. SF isn't in government. It is isn't trying to ban turf. It isn't trying to impose a carbon tax on an already financially stressed electorate. If SF manages to get into government then I'm sure that it will face criticism too.

Regards...jmcc

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994478#Comment_118994478

SF doesn’t know what it’s plan is, one minute they want carbon tax, the next they are not sure, the next they want to keep carbon tax but stop an increase

They released a video, as usual, yesterday and couldn’t even get the numbers who use turf right 🤦‍♂️

Now if you want that shambles running a country that’s good for you, don’t expect everyone else to pick out the problems

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994260#Comment_118994260

I'd be thinking any party considering allowing Ryan and maybe Martin(that's what'll be left) back to the trough will risk losing votes, clear statements from all parties that they won't coalesce with the Greens to form the next government will be needed, Labour exempted as they won't exist

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118992924#Comment_118992924

I remember Kevin Myers on the Late Late show pedalling the same shyte years ago, having an unoriginal bad idea is even worse than just having a bad idea.

Banana Republic 1

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/callans-kicks/id632123130

.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994576#Comment_118994576

I think you will find voters will be more interested in parties that confirm they will/will not go into coalition with a certain opposition party

The Green party are a small party so why would any voter be concerned about them? Ridiculous if you think any voters will care apart from a couple of headless chickens

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994544#Comment_118994544

When I vote, I vote for people that I want to solve problems. The carbon tax is a scam because it completely ignores the larger problems of countries like China continuing to build coal powered power stations. SF is a highly adaptive party and far more aware of what the electorate wants than FFG. To FF/FG and the loyal subjects of the cabbage king (like that phrase :) ) SF may appear "populist" but it seems to be using market research to identify the key issues for the electorate.

With many Greens, there is a combined element of Dunning-Krugerism and the wish for a secular Doomsday religion along with their cult of Saint Greta. Mention Climate Change to some of them and you will get a lecture from people who really don't understand the Science and that Climate Change has been happening since the Earth formed. As for SF, it is currently the most popular party in the opinion polls and that points to the FFG government doing a particularly bad job.

Regards...jmcc

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994616#Comment_118994616

Eamon Ryan helped wreck the country once and seems hell bent on doing it again. There's a huge financial crisis coming and the Greens are doing everything to make it worse. If you mention the Green party to anyone the reply is always " Them Ba####ds". All is not well in the country and there is a growing disconnect between ordinary people and all politicians and the media.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994646#Comment_118994646

...again the greens played a minor part in doing so, as they were the minority party in government at the time, but yes, they played a part, the root causes of the crash were ultimately based in private sector financial institutions, i.e. banks, again, yes aided and abetted by governments in power at the time, yes the greens and co., and other major institutions, i.e. central banks etc.....

yes theres a possibility of a major crash on the way, but the key component probably will be down to central bank activities, but who knows.....

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994657#Comment_118994657

The root causes of the property crash were economic stupidity, gombeen greed, little or no regulation of the banksters, and the failure to build new houses and hoping that the market would do it rather than the state. It happened well before the Greens got into government in 2007.

Regards...jmcc

Mecanudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994544#Comment_118994544

So basically you're saying SF and the GP are one and the same considering Turfgate et al and the 'You step in and they step out again' Lanigans Ball type shenanigans going on within the greens?

Interesting.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994627#Comment_118994627

Making comments like “cabbage king” and “Saint Greta” etc…says it all really

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994396#Comment_118994396

You are a green party supporter and I have yet to see you disagree with anything they have said.

So if your analogy of green party supporters is correct, than what is it you disagree with?

Or is it just yet again just something else you throw up here and then refuse to answer when asked.

Breifne Blue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118993591#Comment_118993591

Obesity is a major issue no doubt in Ireland. Yet I have never heard Green politicians or any indicate that is their motive for promoting cycling. Indeed the government seems almost afraid to mention the obesity epidemic.

Also how does promoting cycling circle with massively cutting roads funding? This does not compute. Again I don't think Eamon Ryan knows or even cares about the horrendous state of many roads throughout Ireland. It's getting worse and Minister Ryan has cut roads funding. Cyclists need safe roads. Many roads in Ireland are unsafe for cars never mind cyclists. The truth is cycling in large swathes of Ireland is extremely dangerous unfortunately. And it's no picnic in Dublin either I assume.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994880#Comment_118994880

"Mentally unstable, drug addicted narcissist" would likely get a ban, and unwell child being exploited by fame hungry parents doesn't just have the same ring to it. These are just examples of what might be interpreted from the terms you've mentioned,

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994576#Comment_118994576

Based on past electoral performance, Ryan seems to have the best chance of being reelected unless he decides not to run. I'm not sure that his standing down would save Bacik though. Ruling out parties for coalitions is a dangerous practice with proportional representation. On current %s in the opinion polls, Labour might be lucky to return three TDs. What could be emerging is an Irish version of the common Left/Right political axis but with it being the Non-Right (Left of centre and centre including SF and various Left wing parties) and Right of centre parties (FG, FF and Labour). Labour hasn't been a Left wing party since the time of Frank Cluskey. It has drifted quickly to the Right and lost much of its core vote. Much of its vote in 2011 was effectively a loaned vote that oscillated between FF and Labour. Labour's vote was always going to drop as that vote moved once more in 2016. Since Irish politics is no longer a 2.5 party model and hasn't been since about 2013, Labour really doesn't have much of a unique selling proposition. Every party has some element of Woke virtue signalling and will continue to do so for as long as it brings in votes.

Despite the Greens moving from being a fringe party to being a mainstream party, they still have a core ideology that is difficult for other parties to make their own. This is what happened to the PDs (essentially Provisional FF with a coat of blue paint) in that the larger parties took some of its economic policies as their own and the PDs ended up as nothing but lobby fodder.

The Greens got a massive boost from the cult of Saint Greta. It was very much like the Children's Crusade of the Middle Ages in terms of hysteria. The problem is that, much like the Childrens Crusade, it was not a long-term political movement. This puts the Greens in a very tricky position for the next GE in that it will lose some of the transfers from SF (SF votes may be more likely to stay with second SF candidates) and will lose the free publicity of the unquestioning media coverage of Greta Thunberg. The whole Green politics angle and the rise of SF could actually help the Greens remain above five seats but it really depends on how the war in Ukraine goes. If the next GE is held in Autumn, Winter or Spring then the effect of rising energy prices due to the sanctions on Russia could see an angry electorate reducing the Greens to about 1 seat. What is really interesting is where the vote that previously voted Labour will go. The Greens got some of that vote in 2016 and again in 2020 in that it became socially acceptable to vote Green as both a socially conscious and environmentally aware vote and also a "none of the above" vote for FF/FG/SF. The real politik of the Greens going into government with FF/FG really didn't surprise long-term Green voters who realise that it is necessary to be in government to get legislation enacted but it may have been a bit of a surprise to the new Green supporters.

It may have been a bit of a revelation for these new Green supporters to discover that they were not supporting a party of the Left as are most European Green parties. Many of the Leftist Greens split in 2007 and there was an attempt to set up a new party called Fis Nua. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F%C3%ADs_Nua ) The Green Left ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Rabharta_Glas ) party set up by some Leftist ex-Greens in 2021. That does point to the major problem with the Left in that the first thing on any agenda is the split.

Regards...jmcc

Mecanudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996159#Comment_118996159

A very good analysis jmcc. Though I reckon Ryan has done too much damage to himself to be re-elected at this point in time.

That does point to the major problem with the Left in that the first thing on any agenda is the split.

Has to be added 😁

https://youtu.be/QhaY1hRDYBg

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996406#Comment_118996406

ah shur the left are a bloody mess, its absolutely true that the left look for traitors, we need to get our sh1t together on the left

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996159#Comment_118996159

Well written analysis and I agree and disagree with various parts, but well written nonetheless.

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996159#Comment_118996159

I would find it debatable if what Behan said about the first item on the agenda being the split was for republican parties being the case for parties of the left based on differences on ideology. The splits, demise and even the coming together of parties, (as in the case of the Democratic Left and Labour), have pretty much one thing in common, and that is coalition governments. Other than under Brendan Corish leadership during the 60`s Labour have been a party that actively campaigned to be a coalition partner as in being so they would be a bulwark against the unrestricted excess of a center right government. During the 2011 general election campaign it was pretty much their only policy slogan. Corish did attempt to change that and position them as a party of the left in their own right, but that more or less came to an end in 1969 when having increased their share of the vote to 17% they actually lost seats.

The history of parties who have made up the minor parties in government is pretty dismal, so it will be interesting to see where the Greens go from here. Labour for years probably punched above their weight even in their bad days in that the were getting transfers from both parties of the center/center right FF and FG, more-so FG, that enabled them to take those last seats, but I cannot see the Greens getting many such transfers next time around. They also benefited by SF not running enough candidates in 2020 and that is not going to happen again. They will also have the problem that unlike 2020 they will not be coming into a general election campaign under the radar next time, but as a party of government.

Those are their external problems. Internally Behan`s quote may still hold water. They do have a bit of a lunatic fringe such as Saoirse McHugh that went unnoticed before that have become more vocal since that could scare off voters. From Patricia McKenna`s remarks on the granting of gold and silver prospecting licenses their may be also some unrest within the old guard as well. Unless there was a total collapse, Ryan with his share of the vote from 2020 and his constituency one of those leafy suburbs that are doing well from EV and retrofitting grants I would not see in any danger of losing his seat. In that constituency unless FG make a complete and utter balls up again there is a seat there for them. That will be more likely to cost the leader of Labour Ivana Bacik, or the potential leader of FF Jim O`Callaghan than Eamon Ryan. But then again, in politics you can never say never.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118996406#Comment_118996406

Perhaps. But there is a strong ideological aspect to his vote. Even when he lost his seat in 2011, he came close to being elected to the European Parliament in 2014. If he stands again, there is a good chance he will be reelected because much of the damage will be seen as rural but he is in an urban constituency.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118997435#Comment_118997435

The big mistake that Labour made in 2011, apart from going into government, was in thinking that the rise in its support was mainly a shift to Labour rather than a reaction against FF. In 1969, Ireland still had some heavy industry and the unions were much stronger. Labour also had some very strong connections to the unions. It has lost those connections and SF seems to have replaced it.

With small parties, there seems to be a 5% national threshold that they must consistently maintain across opinion polls to be considered a national party. If they fall below that, they are almost completely dependent on personal votes rather than ideological votes. Unless they have a very strong ideology (Greens/PBP/Soc) then they will find it difficult to go mainstream. The Greens made the leap in 2007 and Labour blew it. (People think of the Greens as a mainstream party now while Labour is just a fringe party.) It was obvious what the 2007 government was going to be after Kenny lost the leaders debate to Ahern but the Greens showed that they could do "Senior Hurling". Labour was being led by an ex-DL/Stickie (Rabbitte). DL had been part of the Rainbow coalition in the 1990s. The fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of the Soviet Union meant that they had to reinvent themselves.

The Greens needed to become more a more generalist party and make the leap beyond purely Green issues. However, the problem is that they do seem to be more FG on bikes at the moment and lack a broader appeal. I think that the water melon effect (Green on the outside Labour on the inside) of the post 2016 supporters might have tried to turn the Greens into a kind of new Labour with a slightly Green tinge if the leadership challenge had been successful. However, some of the more Left leaning decided to set up their own party so that threat to Ryan has declined somewhat.

Saoirse McHugh's candidature was wishful thinking by the Dublin media. It wanted an Irish Greta Thunberg and McHugh was the best candidate. If she had been running for the European Parliament in Dublin, she would have won a seat. However, she was running in a largely rural constituency.

Unless FG is being run by complete morons, it needs to rethink its election strategies. Varadkar only got elected on the fifth count in his own constituency and consistently lost seats for FG. The dynamics of a GE are very different to those of a bye-election and there is even a very low possibility that the Greens could even win a second seat there at the expense of Bacik. There was a sense that FF knew that it hadn't a chance in DBS on 5% so it didn't run a strong campaign. The FG-FF second preference transfers that have been mentioned in some opinion polls may save Jim O'Callaghan.

The next big test for the Greens, if there is no GE this year, will be the Local Elections. In 2019, the Greens won 49 seats (+37) and Labour only got 57 (+6) having lost 81 seats in 2014. if the Greens make more gains in 2024, then it could be at the expense of Labour though SF may recover some of the seats it lost (-78) in 2019 when it was changing from being a Gerry Adams-led party to being a Mary-Lou McDonald-led party.

Regards...jmcc

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118998185#Comment_118998185

The really big mistake for me for Labour in 2011 was them campaigning as a coalition party to prevent FG excesses in government. They may even have even come out of that 2011-2016 government relatively unscathed had they stood up to FG on water charges rather than going into a general election campaign where Joan Burton and Alan Kelly looked like two cheerleaders for the policy. Had they stayed out of government in 2011 they could possibly built on those voters they had picked up from FF rather than leaving the field open for both FF and SF in opposition.

I agree that the Greens are now considered more of a mainstream party than Labour, but to remain as such they are as you say going to have to poll above at the least 5% and be more generalist in policy. Right now there is now sign of that happening and it is all about green based ideology. I would not see the next general election at a stretch being much more than two years away. If the present energy crisis persists, and war or no war, I cannot see it easing to a great degree as Russian gas will not be back, then with their present stance on LNG and Barryroe in particular a late Autumn/Winter/early Spring election with nothing other than a policy of green ideology I cannot see it favoring them seat wise. Especially when it comes down to the all important transfers.

FG`s election strategies, especially under Varadkar have been a disaster, but it is also a problem that the Greens may also find themselves in when it comes to candidate selection. McHugh is a header who as you say had she ran in Dublin would have got an E.U. seat, but she is not the only extremist in the party, and some of the old guard may not be that happy either with how the party is being ran at present, so there is every chance of discord showing its head when it will come down to selecting candidates. There is also the problem that the candidates they do run will be under much more media scrutiny than was the case in 2020.

For me the real future of the Irish Greens will come down to the results of the next general election. I do not see a one party majority government being the outcome. I don`t think there is much doubt that SF will be the largest party, but even two years in to what has been a pretty much shambolic government both FF and FG are at the same level as their general election results. Next time around i see it, at lest at this stage, as another coalition government with SF in the driving seat. The question is, who will next time be the tail of the dog as there will be a lot of parties for SF to pick from. I am discounting this coalition of the left that SF mentioned in 2020 as they are too savvy to believe they could keep a rag tag grouping of left leaning individuals in order, so that basically leaves Labour, the Greens, FF and FG. FG & FF could possibly attempt to put their own rag tag army together, but unless they combine into one party then that is not going to happen. FG are very highly unlikely to go into coalition with SF so that leaves the Greens, Labour and FF. Labour would have nothing to lose, but would likely be short of the numbers needed. The Greens might have the numbers, but would be unlikely to get the kind of programme for government from SF the got from FF/FG and that could be a major problem for their membership. FF under a new leader and after a term in office with their 100 year old enemy I could see being very open to the idea. Whether SF would be is another matter, but if the Greens do end up back in opposition without more generalised policies could just go the way of the P.D`s in having their best clothes stolen and becoming an irrelevance. Much like the Labour party presently is.

jmcc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118998940#Comment_118998940

I'm not sure that they could have build on those 2011 votes as they always seem to be mobile. It isn't really a "supporter" vote as such. Burton was the wrong leader at the wrong time. Then again, Gilmore had really made a mess of things for Labour in that it would have been impossible for Labour to recover. As for Brendan Who, hardly anyone knew he was leader and he always seemed more FG than Labour. Things really started to change for Labour and FF when the voters who had been kids during the Celtic Tiger came of voting age. They had seen what FF, FG and Labour had done to their parents and found it much more difficult to get on the property ladder or even rent. It was obvious that such experiences would make them a lot more cynical about voting FF/FG/Labour. The Water Tax terrified politicans because it was a mass protest that ripped a lot of their snouts out of the public trough. The Turf War also has that kind of cultural resonance that even people who no longer use turf will remember their grandparents or parents burning it and some of those may well be Dubliners. The message is clear for the politicians: mess with our past and you won't have a political future.

The biggest problem that the Greens have had, historically, is student union type politicians. While some of them might have gained votes on ecological issues, they could not go mainstream and get widespread support. The Greens were lucky that the political landscape had changed to make these issues more important but there is still an element of student politics. The move to being mainstream requires candidates with a wider voter appeal. In some respects, the Greens were very lucky, twice, to lose what could have been a Left leaning faction that could have destroyed any electoral hopes by internal party feuding. Some of the Greens have learned that it is important to be for somethings rather than to be simply against everything.

There is still a genuine FF element (as opposed to Martin's wannabe FGer type) in FF who may consider going into coalition with SF. If Martin was to remain leader of FF beyond December, such a split might not be impossible. The Greens in opposition would do what they've always done. They'd reorganise and plan for their next time in government. The next big challenge, if there is no GE before then, are the Local Elections. If they manage to increase their number of seats there, then it could be an indication, much as the collapse of Labour at a local level in 2014 was an indication of what was going to happen to Labour in 2016, that they are moving towards being a more generalist party. That would really shake things up.

Regards...jmcc

The carbon tax increase goes ahead as planned

RTE news : Carbon tax increase on home heating fuels from today

http://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0501/1295400-energy/

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119000602#Comment_119000602

thank god, but we better get cracking on alternatives for people, as this winter is gonna be hell for most!

slay55

U

donaghs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119000714#Comment_119000714

What alternatives are there? Especially for people who are just struggling to pay their bills.

Is does seem like we are sleep-walking (maybe intentionally for some "Green" zealots) into a situation where we cannot produce enough power to live as we do now, or heat our homes. e.g. only having renewable power sources, and not enough of them. e.g. any new hydro power plants in planning or under construction?

So the answer is probably "managed demand", where people will be forced (probably by excessive costs) not to use electricity during "peak hours", e.g. the time we are awake and need it.