"Green" policies are destroying this country

ps200306

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447507#Comment_119447507

How rare? And even if there is not zero wind blowing, what's the range? A range of 10%-100% is not much better than 0%-100%. It's still highly variable and requires backup. By the way, how are you going to persuade private investors to stump up for multiple times our needed capacity since, by definition, the amount of time they get to generate goes down proportionally. Unless you're planning to pay them when they don't generate. Or you envisage dozens of times the interconnector capacity that we have already, at a cost of hundreds of billions. Or you're relying on the mythical storage. Which brings us to ...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447535#Comment_119447535

Ah yes, the mythical storage. Very handy that we've kicked that can down the road until after 2030 because otherwise someone would have to say where it's coming from. And then the same someone would be shown up for an idiot because it's impossible. For god sake, do the numbers. I did, for lithium ion batteries, and I got a price tag of $375 billion dollars. And it doesn't really matter whether I'm out by a factor of several because it's BATSHIT CRAZY no matter what way you look at it. The price is not the only thing that makes it impossible, there are physical resource constraints as well.

Suppose we get some massive breakthrough like iron-air batteries at a sixth of the price of Li-ion. Still not a runner. At the expected energy density of iron-air batteries you would need four million tonnes of them. Battery chemistry just cannot hack the level of storage needed. What does that leave? Pumped storage is massively expensive and the required topography is rare around the world. (Even if Ireland could do it, I'm assuming it has to be a replicable technology as Ireland can never be more than a showcase due to its negligible emissions).

That leaves hydrogen -- quite inefficient; hard to handle, store and transport; the technology to convert it back to electricity at grid scale doesn't exist yet. Maybe some time long after 2050.

Have I missed anything? I'm a mere armchair engineer after all. But then so it seems are most of the people contributing here. Which would be funny if we weren't betting the entire country's near term economic future on this half-baked experiment. I mean seriously! Where are the costings? Have I missed them? I'm well capable of reading technical reports if I could be just pointed the right direction?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447682#Comment_119447682

Have I missed anything?

quite a bit, buts thats ok

xxxxxxl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447688#Comment_119447688

I don't see how. You could cover the entire country with windmills. Then burn out the grid. With no way to store the extra generation you turn them off. Has there been an actual fact based look into how much the grid can take. I mean substations Transformers and alike are not cheap. How much extra can be put onto the Grid. And Don't come up with some hocus pocus of selling extra capacity The grid can only handle so much. No one is putting the cables underground for this stuff that that's for obvious reasons so another rake of pylons. Not very green. And that before you come into voltage drop.

KildareP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447688#Comment_119447688

Bravo. Such insightful input. Guess you win the argument.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447507#Comment_119447507

No it’s not very rare.

Winter 2021 had a couple of weeks of a high pressure system that had low wind speeds (relatively speaking) at solar min for generating.

How many off shore wind farms do we need to generate what the grid needs- in the scenario above (low wind speed at solar min)

A: to keep lights on in the scenario above at our current electricity needs

B: to keep lights on when we electrify, heat and transport?

It will be a huge amount at huge costs.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447688#Comment_119447688

Congratulations, that’s the worst reply on this thread yet- and to be fair banana and broken had some pretty bad ones.

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119447535#Comment_119447535

At 80% green energy we aren't going to have enough to divert any into some future battery storage, this month we are getting on average 23% lows of 8% of our energy from wind. Best case 54%.

On shore wind should never be build close to housing because of flicker shadow and the background noise it creates is incessant and horrible to live with. Off shore is better but we will have to accept that it will kill sea birds, climate change might kill more but it's not a zero sum. They do create good marine reefs so that's plus.

Solar and batter storage have a major draw back, both depend on dirty toxic chemicals that are mined in the 3rd world.

From April to September you might get something useful from solar, from October too early April the days are probably to short.

This winter if the light go out or the gas is turned off expect ER to be forced to resign possibly bring down the government.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119448688#Comment_119448688

This winter if the light go out or the gas is turned off expect ER to be forced to resign possibly bring down the government.

Lol, nope, won't happen

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119437265#Comment_119437265

Finding any hard financial costings for offshore wind projects is suspiciously near impossible. Bucket loads of fluff about how many homes can be powered, with never a mention that that is a lie as homes need power 24/7/365 and OSW only delivers about 47% of the time in the absolute best case scenarios.

But from all the projects already established, I finally did find one with the actual cost given: East Anglia one, which is right out of the blocks, leading edge with the most modern turbines available: €2.965 billion for 712 MW. Let those numbers sink in. If our grid max load needed is, say, 6 GW, it would cost €27 Billion for something that only delivers 47% of the time and with a paltry lifespan of 20 years. Nuclear power stations currently are anticipated to last 60 years.

So if hydrogen or battery storage, or whatever nonexistant magic greenie nonsense you care to hypothesise, cost zero - nada - nothing - to power the grid you'd still need double that amount of wind capacity for an all up of €54 billion. But storage wouldn't cost zero, now would it?

At UAE Barakah nuclear power plant costs, 6 GW of capacity that's about 92% available would cost €26.7 billion. And people say nuclear is an expensive option.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119446583#Comment_119446583

The greenies simply can not accept that if your capacity factor is 47%, you need to double the cost to compare it with a different energy source that has a 94% capacity factor. The U.S. Energy Information Administration gets it right:

"The first German Offshore Wind Park Alpha Ventus Offshore Wind Farm with a nameplate capacity of 60 MW cost €250 million (after an initial estimate of €190 million).[22] In 2012 it produced 268 Gigawatt-hours of electricity, achieving a capacity factor of just over 50%.[23] If the overnight cost is calculated for the nameplate capacity, it works out to €4167 per Kilowatt whereas if one takes into account the capacity factor, the figure needs to be roughly doubled." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#cite_note-aeo-14

paddyisreal

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119448795#Comment_119448795

What makes you so sure ? People with a little bit more expertise disagree

https://www.newstalk.com/news/ireland-worst-prepared-country-in-europe-for-looming-energy-crisis-1370523

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449050#Comment_119449050

I meant about ER resigning

Will we have power cuts, I doubt it, but who knows. Either way it won't make a jot of difference to ER's position as there is nothing within his powers that would prevent it one way or another, nothing that could have been done within the time he has been in office so there is no dereliction on his part.

You could argue he could have kept Kinsale as a storage location, except that was killed before he took office back in 2017 (or was it 2019, not sure which).

You could argue he could have approved Barryroe immediately, but that would only be for an appraisal well and wouldn't make any difference to the short term as it will be the 2030's before any gas is extracted from there (if at all).

You could argue he should have more power generation set up, he has approved about a dozen additional gas power plants since he's come into office.

You could argue he shouldn't shut down Moneypoint until we have alternatives, and thats been done already.

You could argue he should have approved shannon LNG except that decision is with ABP and the application was submitted in Sept 2021 so even if it had been approved the day after it was approved it would still take 2-3 years to get it built.

You could argue he should have kept the peat power stations open but they would only provide a tiny fraction of grid needs and to do so would have meant going against the courts, which would absolutely be a reason for him to resign.

You could argue he should have built CNG storage yet there have never been any plans, by anyone, in the history of the state to do so, soooo 🤷‍♂️

and so on

So I ask you, under what circumstances would he be forced to resign? Note, hating him doesn't count.

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449224#Comment_119449224

He's minister for energy and the country runs out of it. We've had constant warning from esb/eir grid that we are on a knife edge and he delayed buying extra generators before the war. In the media he is disaster and he'll be sent out to explain how we ended up with load shedding

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449528#Comment_119449528

Did he?

Nov 2021 - 7 new gas plants approved at cabinet (2 GW)

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/new-gas-fired-power-plants-to-bridge-gap-to-renewables-1.4742283

Feb 2022 - 9 plants approved

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/ireland-to-get-nine-new-power-plants-by-2024-to-prevent-shortages-1.4794039

No idea if there's an overlap there, there probably is but either way your argument doesn't hold up and still would not lead to a resignation

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119448899#Comment_119448899

If you are designing a nuclear plant to fulfill demand the nameplate capacity factor and the output percentage from that capacity is meaningful in that the nuclear plant will produce that output 24/7/365 due to there being a constant fuel source. The only percentage drop off from nameplate capacity for nuclear is because of a shutdown for maintenance.

Doubling the nameplate capacity for a fuel source such as wind or solar with a 12 month rolling output of 47% will not get 94% 24/7/365. It will do that on the average day, but there is no 24/7/365 average for wind or solar as both are intermittent. That means that design based on there 12 month average rolling capacity is meaningless. The total nameplate capacity required will be determined by the lowest output percentage at any particular time. If that is 6% then 17X the nameplate capacity will be required, if 10% then 10X the nameplate capacity.

That is what greens fail to acknowledge and are attempting to hand-wave away on the time-frame and the massive costs that would be involved with this storage malarkey on batteries and hydrogen because they know that both time-frame and cost wise their case against nuclear is greatly diminished. The same applies for pumped storage.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449644#Comment_119449644

Its probably a good thing then that we're planning to build many times the required volume.

Quoting across forums doesn't work so copy and paste from this post

This graphic from IT Apr 2022 suggests 27 potential offshore wind projects in pipeline(on left). A more recent WEI slide indicates 32 projects (on right).

A trawl pulls up this graphic from a 2021 Orrick report which details 19 projects and MW of each:

And there is an older 2020 WEI report, which overlaps with above, but also specifies fixed vs floating:

Additional info from this post

80 projects of up to 1.9GW have been provisionally awarded and per RESS 2 I believe they are aimed for completion by 2024 (need to see the final details yet).

Of course this is just the RESS 2 Onshore auction, so just onshore wind and solar projects from the above list.

Next we will have a RESS 1 offshore auction and future auctions, the planned auction timeline and completion timelines look like so:

Auction Type Indicative Auction - Volume (GWh) - Indicative Auction Dates - Indicative Auction Commercial Operation Dates

Onshore RESS 2 - 1,000-3,500 - Q2 2022 - 2024

Offshore RESS 1 - 7,500-10,000 - Q4 2022 - 2027

Onshore RESS 3 - 2,000-5,500 - Q2 2023 - 2025

Offshore RESS 2 - 15,000-25,000 - 2024-2025 - 2029

Onshore RESS 4 - 1,000-5,000 - 2024 - 2026

charlie14

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449730#Comment_119449730

Are you being paid to post these puff pieces because for the life of me I cannot see what those are supposed to represent. Its`meaningless and nothing other than another hand-waving attempt to avoid answering the question.

Exactly how much nameplate capacity will need to be added over what time and at what cost to provide 100% 24/7/365 dependable electricity supply from renewables ?

For someone who knows so much about alternatives their timelines and costs surely you know the same on your own favoured approach.

T

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449922#Comment_119449922

I just showed that there's plans for many multiples of demand going to be installed over the next few years.

This is in addition to solar installations (5.5 GW planned by 2030 I believe), interconnectors (700MW Celtic, 500MW Greenlink), pumped storage (Silvermines), battery installations etc etc. This is all the stuff planned to happen before 2030 when we are set to achieve 80% renewables.

You are asking about 100%, its not mapped out yet as its a 2030-2050 problem to be solved, but will likely entail a lot more offshore, especially off the west coast, a lot more solar, a lot more storage (though what form that will take I don't know) and so on. Then there are options which are in their infancy in terms of scale like green hydrogen, wave, tidal, newer "battery" storage tech etc, all of which I have a certain level of skepticism over.

As for costs, I don't concern myself with how much its going to cost a private company to do something as it has no bearing on anything for me. The publicly funded projects have announced their costs where it is known, and will announce when its known for other upcoming projects.

That you are not getting answers to questions that have yet to be resolved, is, well, obvious, as to the reason why. The answers to your questions will come, in the fullness of time. Just have patience.

In the meantime, gas is planned to play a role in terms of generation up to 2050 so there is that as backup until the more sustainable options are up and running.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449224#Comment_119449224

The last one.

Why didn’t he think to build CNG tanks?

Ill admit I’ve only recently (last two years) found out Ireland has NO gas storage and depends on 70% of its gas via Moffat, but I’m not the energy minister.

This would have been brought to the attention of ER when he gained office three years ago and he could have immediately looked to remedy this.

On this one matter he will fall on his sword.

Just because no one ever thought of it before is his alibi? Not good enough.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119449634#Comment_119449634

I thought you weren’t a GP supporter by the way?

Why get so worked up with posters laying the blame at ER’s door?

No skin off your nose……right?

Mecanudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119440512#Comment_119440512

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119438232#Comment_119438232

It investors primarily who are spending money. Investment money can finance both renewables as well as storage facilities. It's not rocket science ffs.

Our energy regulator has already pointed out we need storage. The EU have already pointed out we need storage. And the greens think otherwise. 🙄

Clueless & etc

Mecanudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119450076#Comment_119450076

So lots more green hopium? Glad you cleared all that up for us. /s

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119450076#Comment_119450076

And if the gas stops flowing via Moffat, what happens then dacor?

Mecanudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119442501#Comment_119442501

Oh no it bloody hasn't and this is just one example

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/government-fined-5-million-european-20868416

What gives DaCor? Whats with the constant greenwashing of anything even remotely directed by the green party and friends, but every other solution is a massive problem and can't possibly happen because tthe reality is the greens don't want it to happen, while they ignore the reality of the very large elephant in the room which is the complete absence of any energy security for the country.

Greenwashing doesn't wash. It never has.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119450161#Comment_119450161

Why didn’t he think to build CNG tanks?

Maybe he has, maybe he hasn't, either way I can't speak to what he may or may not think

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119450170#Comment_119450170

I'm not, disagree with several of their policies. Its nothing to me whether he stays or goes, I'm just pointing out that there is nothing on the horizon as regards him resigning and I've yet to hear different

Mecanudo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119444746#Comment_119444746

Lol. We already know how much renewables are costing us in increasing electricity prices with renewable energy companies reaping the profits from guaranteed electricity prices.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/wind-energy-companies-see-prices-sky-rocket-as-electricity-prices-soar-1345965.html

In October 2020, Ireland’s energy regulator, announced an increase in charges for electricity customers to help finance investment in renewables, which saw considerable increases in Irish household’s electricity bills. 

Then there's the EU marginal price policy which dictates that wholesale electricity prices are set to the dearest component of any energy mix. And currently that is Gas. And no that's not likely to change in the near future

There is also the significant problem of lack of wind output. June and July 2021 were the least windy period in parts of Ireland, the UK, and the North Sea in decades. And according to Met Eireann, 2021 as a whole was the least windy year nationally in over a decade. Summer 2020 saw periods where over 90% of our electricity had to come from burning fossil fuels as there simply wasn't enough wind power being generated. 

Currently the vast majority of Ireland's renewable electricity comes from on-shore wind farms, so when it's not windy, gas and coal-fired power plants have to take up a lot of the slack. Higher prices for fossil fuels caused by increasing energy security concerns plus increases in prices of fossil fuels directly caused by increases in global demand for fossil fuels such as natural gas directly driven by green energy policies.

Renewable energy is also by nature highly volatile – nobody can tell very far in advance how windy or sunny it’s going to be and therefore how much energy will be generated. As a result, back-up power plants which generate their electricity from fossil fuels are still required, and will do so for a long time. Turning these on and off at irregular intervals depending on how windy or sunny it may or may not be isn’t very efficient and adds to costs too.

Data from Eurostat, (the EU statistics agency) now show that Irish electricity prices are the fourth highest in the EU at around 26% above average, with only Denmark, Germany and Belgium having higher prices.

In short, renewable energy is regularly  headlined as promising cheaper prices, the truth is consumers have to deal with much higher prices compared to the time before renewables and unfortunately thats unlikely to change.

Pa ElGrande

Wind energy Ireland need to hurry up with some more press releases.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119450440#Comment_119450440

It doesn’t make sense for you to say you can or can’t say what he’s thinking when you’ve come out with such a robust defence of him a couple of posts earlier. 🤦‍♂️

Anyway I don’t care what you think ER is thinking or not thinking, the fact remains he will be energy minister going into a winter with a high probability of blackouts- that just makes his position untenable.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119451079#Comment_119451079

It doesn’t make sense for you to say you can or can’t say what he’s thinking when you’ve come out with such a robust defence of him a couple of posts earlier.

So because I don't think he will have to resign I must know what he thinks? Seriously?

the fact remains he will be energy minister going into a winter with a high probability of blackouts- that just makes his position untenable.

Again, I highly doubt there'll be any blackouts but either way it still wouldn't lead to a resignation. Or can you show any instance since the foundation of the state when such a thing occurred. We've had blackouts in the past, so who was the last minister who had to resign because of them?

Furze99

In truth what's needed are a few rolling blackouts of domestic users in next few weeks, to really highlight this silly blind love in of the wind energy industry. We'd soon see real debate then on alternatives and back ups. So many people are sleep walking as regards this issue.