Will (or indeed should) the UK ever rejoin the EU?

GM228

At the moment Brexit is still in it's infancy, but the problems and realities of it grew up quickly,

So as the title asks, in light of the ever increasing lists of mess after mess after mess and the realities of Brexit, the damage it is causing to the UK, will reality bite (perhaps 20/30/40 years later?), and should the UK at some point in the future (obviously in need of leaders more in tune with said reality who admit defeat) apply for EU membership?

Donald Trump

It might be a case that they might try to apply but might not be admitted.

landofthetree

No insults.

Atlantic Dawn

Having to admit defeat and additionally having to surrender the 'mighty'' Sterling for the Euro would be humiliating, mind you having to q for petrol like some third world county is also humiliating. I couldn't see it happen within the next 20 years.

Seth Brundle

It will be another generation before the UK is ready to properly consider rejoining. However, there is a lot of issues at home that the UK need to resolve beforehand including a more representative form of democracy.

They need to have a proper mature fact-based discussion at home as to what happened previously that led to them leaving and why they want back into the union.

I think they also need a better understanding of what they get from their membership rather than the nonsense and lies spouted over the last four decades

They really do need to take a long hard look at how their media shape political views simply to suit the agendas of the owners of those media outlets.

When they rejoin, they need to show full involvement including adopting the Euro. I think a five year probationary period should be set in place (as it should be with other potential new members).

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030118#Comment_118030118

https://www.dw.com/en/greeces-hospitals-are-ill-suited-homes-for-kids/a-49295962

In Greece parents leave their kids in hospital as they can't feed them.

alchemist33

As Seth said above, it'll take a generation for the Brexiteers' voices to diminish and maybe then they will attempt to rejoin. But by then I expect the UK as we know it won't exist anyway and Scotland will already be in the EU.

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030122#Comment_118030122

In another generation the EU will be a lot different. Greater ever union will be further down the road. Can't see the Brits wanting to join it.

As Guy Verhofstadt said " To survive in the long-term, the Eurozone will need a proper banking union and a fiscal union."

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2014/02/25/five-minutes-with-guy-verhofstadt-we-simply-cannot-stand-by-and-watch-as-a-whole-generation-grows-up-without-a-good-prospect-of-finding-a-job/

Atlantic Dawn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030131#Comment_118030131

Greece should never have been allowed join the EU in the first place.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030239#Comment_118030239

Whatever about the EU, they should never have been allowed to join the Euro. They fiddled the books to qualify.

GoogleBot

UK will never join EU. Sovereignty more important than communal farming.

Sam Russell

Would the UK want to re-join the EU? I would not think so for a few reasons. Wil he UK be a single entity - or will it break up? An independent Scotland probably would, but England - no.

Would the EU accept them back? Well, de Gaulle did not want them - vetoed them twice.

So on balance - No they will not be back.

L1011

Extending on above - it won't be the UK deciding to rejoin, because it won't exist.

Within a decade Scotland will be gone and (at least on its way) back in and NI will be... somewhat in in some way; be it some variation of the Protocol or reunification or any stage in between.

England and Wales, possibly still trying to call itself "the UK" would need a political revolution to go back in; but if FPTP can somehow be killed that would be the start of it.

techman1

In a simple answer, No they won't rejoin even if Labour get back in.

Ireland will now be facing big questions regarding the EU itself, will Ireland have to join the EU army because that's the direction things are going, that's what macron wants increased militarization and an EU with proper power.

At the moment Poland is defying the European court of justice saying it has no jurisdiction over the polish supreme court. The EU has no real power here because it cannot send around the EU police force or army to enforce its edicts . That's why macron wants an eu army

screamer

The European Union will fail eventually or rather, it will diminish back to its original purpose a trading agreement. We’ll all be better off out of it. The EU needs to change or fail altogether.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030805#Comment_118030805

Sure; and other countries will abandon EU soon(tm); any day now... You can keep dreaming about the "good old days" but EU is not going back from where it's today dragging populist politicians in countries such as Hungary and Poland with it because no matter what it's politicians think their voters prefer EU and UK is making a great example of why for them.

20silkcut

De Gaulle was spot on all along. Britain should never have joined. Trouble is we would never have joined either. Maybe we would be joined in some form at this stage. Britain would be a lot better off now if it had gone down the Norway route. It would have deprived the eurosceptics of oxygen over the last 30 years and they’d probably never have gained the traction they did. Again to reiterate the point De Gaulle was right. He saw what it was like to be in a sort of union/humiliation with Britain during the war. Of course we ourselves here in Ireland know full well what it’s like to be in a union with Britain as well. Britain can’t countenance any Union of equals.

But trading difficulties with Britain does create problems for us they being our nearest neighbours there is no getting away from that reality that is why we are so excercised by brexit

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030805#Comment_118030805

When was it ever a "trading agreement" - the very first treaty said it was a political project - furthermore, how could it possibly be a single market without common rules enforced by a common court and freedom of movement of goods, services & people?

And why would Ireland ever want to go back to a place where the UK starves Ireland, deprives it of medicines, blocks trade,wages economic & propaganda wars - to force Ireland to submit to the will of a vicious corrupt British elite?

No thank you.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031318#Comment_118031318

Lucky for Ireland that the UK joined as Ireland could never have become economically independent otherwise.

UK could never have been a Norway - which must follow EU rules with relatively little input: UK wanted, wants & believes itself entitled to dominate others.

Ireland's problems with brexit primarily come down to Northern Ireland. Long term that's the UK's problem also: if they create an unstable situation there it is unsustainable for them which means a United Ireland. The only thing preventing a United Ireland is an operable NI protocol.

I would welcome Scotland back in and NI as part of a UI. England, no I wouldn’t want them back in they are still of the mighty Britain mindset, many still think in WW2 battle terms and a belief that they are just better than everyone else.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030131#Comment_118030131

So the UK has fallen so low that favourable comparisons to Greece are acceptable???

I've dropped my monocle

ujjjjjjjjj

Impossible to say now whether Brexit will benefit the UK or not, it is simply far too early to make any assessment. Covid of course has muddied the waters with every problem in the UK being used as a middle class hissy fit and by the Pro Remain sections of the media to say ' I told you so'. It will be a generation before any of us can look back and make an honest assessment. Regardless of the motives for leaving and the rights and the wrongs of it, leaving a trading bloc like the EU and untangling from it was always (and it would be the same for any country) going to cause a period of substantial adjustment.

Impossible for the Irish to have a rational discussion on it as we have so firmly staked our claim to being good little Europeans and blowing smoke about how good the EU is and awful the Brits are and it is a little tedious.

Like most things the reality is much more nuanced. Ireland and many other member States have big decisions ahead about where the European Project goes in terms of ever reducing national sovereignty and big decisions like an EU army etc. Clear as day that the power lies with Germany with French support and there is a clear push to increasing EU power. If that is what people want fine but rational and logical discussions need to take place. A recent simple example is the massive u-turn on our tax policy, personally I think it is morally the right thing to do but anyone under any illusions that it was an Irish decision is deluded, clear and simple messaging from the EU, Macron etc made it absolutely clear that Ireland had no room to manoeuvre on this one and we did what we were told despite it being directly against a core Irish sovereign policy.

Ireland isn't in a place to have these discussions now as all we seem concerned about is watching and hoping that Brexit turns into a sh*t show so we can be proved right. We have to move on.

Personally I hope the UK prospers and in time as the middle class hissy fit recedes they need to move on. I have doubts as to increasing EU powers as ultimately history teaches us that policy will be driven largely by German needs with the French tagging along.

I read very little actual of any sense in any sections in the Irish media or on message boards of this nature that is actually asking wider questions about where we go with the EU but plenty of tedious and boring 'Brexit disaster' commentary making out that the UK is falling apart at the seams due to all the morons who voted for Brexit. This has been going on since 2016 and after 5 years you might think we could move the discourse on a bit.

micosoft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030805#Comment_118030805

Does repeating that lie make you feel better? I mean, at this stage this has been done to death so I can't imagine you don't know the truth of the matter that the EU was never created as a trading agreement even before the inception of the European Coal and Steel Community? So why post it? Plainly the EU has radically changed and continues to change to this day. But you know all this and instead repeat debunked talking points from the far right.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030689#Comment_118030689

Eventually, yes. Either that or they'll negotiate ever closer alignment so as to make the difference meaningless. This is years, if not decades away. Brexit needs to fail on its own terms and we can see that happening now.

d4v1d

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031558#Comment_118031558

Personally I dread the thought of a United Ireland. As a 26 county country we are doing pretty damn well for ourselves overall and introducing the pile of sh**e that is NI politics (that being generous) into the new Republic would be a complete mess.

There is an alternative that no-one seems to be speaking about. Should Scotland secede I think NI and Ireland would be served much better if NI were to form part of a United Scotland. The traditional ties between GB and NI have always been stronger with the Scots than the English and this potential marriage of nations may satisfy nationalist and unionist both in that neither Dublin or London would be involved. If the United Scotland is accepted into the EU then border issues on Ireland cease to be a concern and we can finally bury the current idea of UI.

micosoft

To answer the question, the UK will never rejoin because the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland as currently constructed will not exist given the direction of travel of NI & Scotland.

Secondly, it's not a binary choice. There are many levels before full membership. The likely outcome will be an EFTA like membership for England & Wales. i.e. follow all the rules but get none of the input rights. It will take decades for this final defeat of the British Empire to filter through to it's population i.e. the Brexiteers die off, and a revised education system and genuinely free press emerge along with a functioning democracy replacing the current failed system. This would be prerequisite before the EU could consider having a political relationship with England and Wales.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031680#Comment_118031680

The union is busting at the seams. Sure, Johnson can always just refuse independence referenda but that's not really sustainable in the long run, especially in Northern Ireland. It's also going to be a serious embarrassment for them on the world stage about half of the UK's landmass wants to break away because of their leader's ambitions.

BuckoA51

I think whatever's left of it might re-join one day, but before the EU would even have them back they'd need an overhaul. A switch to a decent democratic voting system full PR would be great but those in power in the UK have resisted that for generations.

I'm just really grateful to be here now, way better. At this point it's starting to affect those middle class older voters who were so keen on it in the first place (and, ironically, the least vulnerable to having their jobs/businesses turned upside down as a result). As gaps appear on the supermarket shelves and fuel becomes more scarce, but you must never underestimate the British electorate's ability to blame anyone but themselves for the consequences.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031637#Comment_118031637

It's "impossible to say" in the same way as it is "impossible to say" if gravity works or if evolution is a thing. The basic rules of economics say that brexit can only be a failure.

The tax thing was an OECD decision - 193 countries for it - Ireland against. Is France so powerful now it controls all those countries? If so, it's a good thing we are in the EU so that they can't trample us the way the British have tried and continue to try.

Considering the UK is back again trying to dismantle the Irish sea border- which will allow Ireland to be flooded with the UK's excess BSE infected beef they can no longer sell abroad, the sewage soaked sea food they similarly cannot & the various lowest common denominator pesticide-soaked & GMO food - you'll have to forgive Irish people for giving a ****.

mick087

The UK will never give up sterling the UK will never accept the Schengen Area.

Unless the EU it self’s changes then IMO I don’t see the UK will ever re-join the EU in its current format.

UK elected governments come and go EU Presidents come and go people’s opinions change much can happen in 10 years.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031763#Comment_118031763

Your post is exactly the type of posting I am talking about.

I studied Economics and don't remember a basic rule that states that an independent country in charge of its own borders and trade agreements can't be economically stable and successful. You are simply assuming that by leaving a trading bloc a country will long term suffer economically but that assumes it stands still and does nothing else.

If you don't believe EU pressure, soundings and specifically French influence (Macron was in Dublin shortly before the u-turn) had nothing to do with Pascal's sudden change of tune fine but I think you being naive as to the influence senior EU figures have over domestic Irish policy.

Of course the UK are trying to dismantle the Irish Sea Border. Would you like a border around Cork for example ? I am fully aware Brexit has caused massive issues with the North but the defacto reality of the UK leaving the EU was having a border between the North and the South the only practical solution yet it was deemed politically impossible in Ireland so we ended up with a solution that can never work. The British and Boris signed up to it as Boris saw little choice to batter Brexit through and yes they are at fault for that and it is an unpleasant side effect of the whole Brexit process but a border in some shape or form between the UK and the EU is (and this means the North too) is the only long term solution bar of course a United Ireland. Anything else is a fudge and will continue to cause problems.

As for your comments on BSE and sewage laden seafood I am not too sure where to go with those. BSE is over in the UK with the UK due next year to apply for and restore the lowest possible risk level for BSE. Was it a mess yes but hardly the only food scandal in Europe. The UK is not selling BSE infected beef. As for the seafood sewage comments again no idea where to start on that and considering Ireland is in never ending trouble with the EU over sewage discharge into our seas and rivers very much a case of get our own house in order before critical commentary on other countries.

In time will Brexit prove to be an unmitigated mess for the UK, quite possibly. Might another narrative play out, quite possibly.

I know Brexit bashing is fun but maybe we could look past it now as it has happened.

To get back to the post topic I dont think the UK will rejoin the EU or even consider it for at least a generation and much will depend on exactly what happens in the EU and how the European Project plays out in the next 20-30 years.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031938#Comment_118031938

As regards economics, the UK has raised the highest trade barriers in history with 50% of its trade. Outside of wartime, it's actions are without precedent. I seriously seriously question your economics knowledge if you can even suggest that won't have severe and uncompensatably bad effects on the UK economy. Seriously.

As regards the French - you go and believe whatever you want about Macron - if he truly is that powerful then we should be quaking in our boots and glad we have the EU to protect us from him & have him on our side.

As regards the Irish border - the UK was fully entitled to leave with or without a deal - Ireland however is perfectly entitled to say "UK shall keep its commitments to no hard border or else there will be no beneficial trade deal for the UK". You say that the current solution is unsustainable - when it is by far the most sustainable solution. A border with 300 crossings which took up 1 third of the British army and a large amount of the North sea wealth to maintain won't be sustainable. The only 2 other sustainable options are UK re entering the single market or a United Ireland.

Just because we have to listen to fabricated British narratives that it is "not working" - when the UK cannot set up GB borders because they would result in total chaos and the UK refused longer transition periods for NI to make it look bad - and the UK tries (and failed) to spark loyalist violence and the UK needs to bring forward its nonsense attacks on the protocol because the fuel, food & worker shortages etc etc are becoming too obvious to ignore - and the negative comparisons

On British BSE infections - you haven't been paying attention - it's back again & foreign markets for British beef are collapsing. That's EU & China gone - so obviously unscrupulous people will be more than happy to look to the now unprotected market next door with access to the EU.

https://plantbasednews.org/lifestyle/health/china-beef-imports-mad-cow-disease/

Same economics effects work for UK sewage-seafood - they've lost their EU markets and Ireland is now unprotected .

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030786#Comment_118030786

Not sure where you are going with your EU army being needed to take action against Poland. Economic sanctions would be far cheaper, and far more effective than launching missiles at them and crossing the border with tanks (or whatever way you think international relations work!).

Poland's big issue if it decided to alienate itself from its current allies would be the sleeping bear to the east (or to its North if you want to be pedantic)

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032010#Comment_118032010

Time will tell on the economics front but you are continuing to assume that all the UK is doing is increasing trade barriers.

The border agreement is a fudge, yes Brexit caused this problem but the Irish, EU and the UK signed a ridiculous agreement to try and tick every box, it will continue to cause problems until all sides agree a border (and not it doesn't have to be a big fence with soldiers) has to exist. They exist across the world. Yes a United Ireland gets rid of the problem and that may fix it but that is for the North to decide on. The reality is now the North is in the UK and the UK is outside the EU so therefore a border in some shape or form has to exist.

As for BSE one cow in Somerset , seriously?? Ireland had a BSE cow and China banned us for over a year if I remember correctly and only recently reinstated us. China being that paragon of food safety and an open free society, it's political....

tinytobe

I think the situation in the UK would have to get worse from an economic perspective. This would increase the pressure to do something. It may also be the trigger for some kind of early election? We don't know.

I don't think that in the long run, the UK will be successful outside the EU, not at the stage things are now. Maybe if they had an arrangement like Switzerland or Norway, it may work, but not the way it's done now. Empty shelves one only knew from communist eastern Europe, and long queues for petrol, they didn't even have that in communist East Germany, as far as I know. The Brexit-UK economy will be one of shortages and disruption whilst no immigrant will show interest in a short term visa scheme, also the low value of the pound will make it a bit less attractive. From the NHS doctors and nurses to truck drivers, to butchers, and other essential jobs which were traditionally done by EU / Polish citizens won't be filled this easily. This will continue to hamper any strong and pronounced economic growth and keep direct foreign investment quite possibly subdued for more than a while.

If the British labour party was smart, they would advocate a re-entry into the EU. However the labour party is too focused on classical socialism, and thinks the EU is too capitalist, as it's something mainly economic driven.

Sam Russell

BSE has been detected in England in the last month. The outbreak is under investigation, so, until the details are reported, one cannot say whether he reaction is political. [If only China had been as quick and open about Covid]

It is one animal at present, but there is yet to be a report on the matter.

Britain has already moved away from EU rules regarding some insecticides banned by the EU. They have allowed the use of some GMO products banned in the EU. There needs to be full SPS surveillance on the Irish Sea border, and weakening such checks is a big mistake.

BSE and F&M are things we do not want here.

https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/09/bse-found-in-cow-in-england/

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032085#Comment_118032085

The EU is 50% of trade, and no doubt as someone who has studied economics you will understand the concept of "economic gravity".

Not only that but the only other large markets are problematic at best - China is not on friendly terms with the UK and the US itself doesn't even have an integrated service market for its own States - so is hardly going to be able to offer that to the UK.

That's why the UK government's own assessments were that a deal with the US would be worth a whopping 0.07% - but then only after 15 years.

So yes, it is very easy for someone with even a basic understanding of economics to know that brexit is a "put gun to the side of your head and pull the trigger" type decision.

Which is of course why the Brexiters have shifted to a "we wanted brexit to empower our corrupt secretive, duplicitous & autocratic elite" as their argument.

Northern Ireland itself is a contested fudge. Brexit is a contested fudge - with 50% of the population disagreeing with the very concept. Why should we care what the UK wants- these were and are Ireland's terms: no hard border or economic destruction & international pariah-dom for the UK. That's a pretty sweet offer.

And economic destruction is not a sustainable position for the UK - hence it has 3 options: no brexit; no NI or no hard border. They just have to pick one. They may need to be taught some harsh lessons before they get there - but if the lesson is sufficiently painful, they'll get there eventually.

So now you admit the UK has ongoing BSE issues - and has lost its biggest hoped-for foreign market aside from the EU. Where do you- with your economics education- think all of that now near worthless partly BSE infected beef is going to go?

And would the existence of an island next door with loyalist criminal smuggling gangs and a market without customs checks have any influence on your answer?

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032186#Comment_118032186

Further on the economics argument: it isn't simply a question of trade deals either. The UK shrunk its market (for supplies, visa-free ready manpower) from 500 million people down to 70 million. Previously it could rely on logistic system redundancy shared with that 500 million - HGV drivers could come and go, etc. Now, that it is alone it needs to build massive amounts of otherwise useless and resource draining redundancy and storage at every step of its supply chains. All of that needs to be paid for by the British.

They also need to pay for tens of thousands of public and private sector customs agents plus their accommodation and other business expenses plus pay for vets etc.

Parroting Brexiter slogans of "you just have to wait 50 years" and "nobody gave true brexit a chance" is simply a denial of the basics of economics. I suppose as an faith based ideology it is something it shares that with communism.

techman1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118031496#Comment_118031496

But the eu has no real independent power, it only has power by agreement of its member States and their willingness to comply with its decisions, it has no independent enforcement power, no police or army, that is a fundamental of a political union.

A German court has also ignored a European court ruling with regard to bond purchase by the ECB, it said the European court over stepped its mandate and the German court was the final law, there was no consequences, it was just forgotten about. Now Poland is using this precedent to also ignore the European court

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032186#Comment_118032186

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032186#Comment_118032186

I think Fash the issue with so much discussion on here and you are following the pattern is a lack of middle ground perspective.

The arguments for economic self harm that Brexit brings through increased trade barriers with the EU are sound but there is no willingness to see it may bring other benefits. And then you post comments above about empowering our corrupt secretive......etc etc and expect me to take it seriously and then one cow in Somerset turns into a plague of BSE infected meat.....just like Ireland didn't become a BSE infected hole when we had one cow with BSE a couple of years back.

And then your comment on loyalist criminal smuggling gangs, what are you talking about ?? They are hard at work currently, I believe there are only two options for the border. You either have one or you have a United Ireland and that is not our decision. Either way we will have a drugs / smuggling problem as we do today.

Brexit whether you like it or not has happened. We as Irish people can either continue on our current path of pouring scorn on it and forget the benefits of having 65 million people plus next door to us who are more than happy to buy our goods and visit us for holidays etc etc or be a touch more mature, take the higher moral ground and see how we can work with it. Ultimately I know which I would prefer to see but if you want to continue down the path feel free to do so. I just don't see how it benefits Ireland especially considering the shared history of these two islands.

For me it is time to change the tune but you do what you see fit.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032322#Comment_118032322

In Germany, there were consequences - court proceedings were initiated.

For Poland, money is being withheld - & there will be proceedings as well if it escalates that far.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032357#Comment_118032357

1. As regards brexit "benefits", while I'm sure certain sections can argue for intangible benefits (just as North Korea can argue for the intangible benefits of not being connected to the rest of the world), from an economics perspective, there is no version of reality where brexit makes economic sense - unless a magical world of Narnia or a super wealthy undersea and populous Atlantis just off the shore of Scotland exists. Otherwise, no - the benefits are at best tiny the economic costs are vast as are the political and other costs - the inability to influence EU legislation affecting British manufacturers & service providers (and around the world), to speak internationally on behalf of Europe, to offer freedoms to its people and to valuable and sought after migrants who can go elsewhere, to send refugees back to France, to hold hassle-free international court cases, the loss of stability and push for independence of UK regions etc etc

As regards BSE- tell that to the Chinese who banned British beef. Again where is all of that worthless and partly BSE infected beef going to go now? Are you honestly suggesting it will not be sent to Northern Ireland? Are you honestly suggesting that the UK is (and will continue to be) operating the NI protocol rigorously?

Any border region brings particular opportunities for smuggling based on the customs arbitrage - that is a consequence of brexit reintroducing differing customs areas - are you suggesting that the loyalist smugglers are not going to exploit the opportunities of lowered checks?

As regards options, again there are 5:

1. An Irish sea border (which the UK chose);

2. An economic purgatory which the UK cannot survive;

3. A United Ireland;

4. No brexit;

5. A SM brexit (giving up control).

Those are the options facing the UK. It is, as you said, not for Ireland to choose on behalf of the UK. Of note, the only way for the UK to avoid a United Ireland and no brexit for long is to maintain a sea border. A hard border in Ireland would be rejected by the local population and kick off a relentless push on both sides of the border to bring about a United Ireland, would cost a fortune in military assets for the UK to patrol & would be occurring at the same time as the complete economic collapse of the UK & the final shredding of any international standing and friendships it had.

And I'll change my tune when the UK stops duplicitously reneging on agreements and trying to **** over Ireland. If the UK needs to be broken for that to occur - then so be it.

Edit: I would also note that in order for brexit to have been a success, the EU needed to be destroyed. When that didn't happen, there were only the 5 "humiliating" forms of brexit mentioned above. Brexiters real issue is with the humiliation that any form of realistic brexit brings to the UK - and the fact that admitting brexit was a stupid idea is itself humiliating.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032552#Comment_118032552

Thanks for that Fash, quite clear where you stand on the issue, your comment about the UK trying to ***** over Ireland paints a clear picture of your mindset on this. In essence this is what I was talking about in my very first post which you reacted to so strongly. You laugh at the economic stupidity of the UK leaving the EU but are quite happy to talk openly about breaking the UK oblivious to the impact a failing UK would have on Ireland.

As I said I believe it is time for us to move on and accept Brexit and see what we can get out of it and we are uniquely placed with a strong self interest to calm things down and move things forward with the UK. Long before the EU even existed these two nations of Ireland and the UK agreed a common travel area which uniquely ties us to the UK and gives citizens of both jurisdictions privileges and access to each others country with no restrictions. Whether you like it or not Ireland and the UK are joined at the hip in so many ways.

We can agree to disagree perhaps.

And talk to anyone in the police force in the North and they will tell you Loyalist Gangs are quite happy now with a fluid open border and no checks.....

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032687#Comment_118032687

- and what else do you call trying to duplicitously renege on various treaties in breach of international law to force Ireland out of the single market/to subject it to British control and to threaten to reignite violence if they do not get their way other than "trying to**** over". Why, when even the Americans & Kiwis amongst others have condemned UK behaviour, are you excusing it?

I am perfectly happy to see UK succeed - but not at expense of Ireland. As the UK wishes to force Ireland to bear the costs of the choices of its political elite, you are damned right that I view this as a "them or us" situation - where there is no cost too high that they need to bear for their own decisions. These are their choices- they need to live with them and they need to bear the cost - not us. If the cost to ensure that Ireland remains free and does not acquiesce to a permanent border through the country is the complete economic collapse of the UK (a mere 7% and falling of Irish exports) - that is price I'm happy to see the UK pay for its freely made choices.

Prior to EEC/EU membership, Irish exports were 90% to the UK and its currency was tied to sterling. Ireland was not independent. The UK decided to join the EEC - and Ireland was obliged to follow. The UK initially decided to join Schengen, Ireland followed, the UK then thought again - and Ireland copied it. If the UK made its threats to Ireland to starve the country and wage an economic war at that point, Ireland would have been forced to its knees.

Ireland hasn't changed the relationship with the UK - the UK has. Did they think or care about Ireland when they decided to brexit in the way they did? Answer: obviously not - they thought they could force Ireland out of the single market and back under the control of corrupt British elites.

And those loyalist gangs are going to be much happier with no checks to the GB mainland, high food standards in Ireland/the EU and customs differences to arbitrage.

Now imagine if instead of that border being in a few ports it was spread out along a couple of hundred miles with over 300 crossing points.

So I fully agree with your point that Ireland needs to force the UK to comply with its obligations to fully operate the NI protocol to ensure that doesn't happen.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032815#Comment_118032815

Fash you are more than free to continue on with your position and we can agree to disagree on where things stand but don't misquote me - I don't think Ireland should 'force the UK to comply with its obligations to fully operate the NI Protocol to ensure that doesn't happen'.

I think the NI Protocol is a load of nonsense that makes no sense at all and all parties who signed it are at fault. Ireland simply signed it so our politicians could claim they prevented a hard border, the EU signed it to support Ireland but also fully aware it was putting the UK in an impossible position putting a border through the middle of their country and Boris made a mistake signing it as he was under ludicrous pressure to get something over the line and hoped to fudge and fiddle his way out of it down the line which he is currently trying to do. It was and always has been a flawed fudge and everyone is to blame. The insane thing about the Protocol is it was never needed. People under Common Travel Area legislation can freely move between the North and South and all that is needed is goods checks which can largely be done through trusted trader schemes and random monitoring. But politically it was viewed as impossible to have any form of a 'border' - people immediately jumped to the conclusion that we'd have wire fences and soldiers......not required.

The UK is an independent country now and that includes NI. Ireland is an EU member state and we need a border on the NI border to protect the EU and in reverse the UK if you look at from a different perspective - in short it's not science - two countries iwith different customs / tarriffs and standards potentially. I understand it's political minefield to have a border but it doesn't mean it isn't needed.

Yes a united Ireland gets around it but that is not an Irish decision - only the North can make that decision themselves. It is nothing to do with us.

By the way Ireland was an Independent Country prior to joining the EU - you seem to be rewriting history now too. Ireland made those decisions and they were not imposed on us by the UK.

Your other statement is also very revealing - corrupt British elites forcing Ireland out of the Single Market and back under British Control ???? Do you seriously believe any of this stuff ????

Brexit was and always has been a very simple question, do you want to stay in the EU - the answer was no, and they left. Has it caused problems for Ireland, yes, but that was not the intention of the referendum.

Ah so it's the EUs fault that Boris signed an internationally binding agreement?

Sure...

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032926#Comment_118032926

Didn't say that - all parties are at fault. The NI protocol never made any sense, will never make any sense and will continue to cause endless problems. It was signed by all parties as a fudge to a problem which there is no answer to. Ireland doesn't want a border between North and South but with the de facto position now of the UK and the EU being in different customs and standards regimes means a border is absolutely required.

We can all try and ignore the fact and honestly I see the problems but the border is an essential requirement - idiotic politicians can come up with whatever fudge they see fit to pretend it isn't needed but it is and until that fact is recognised we will keep going round the houses on this one.

There are only three potential solutions:

i) Have a border.

ii) UK rejoins the EU.

iii) United Ireland.

Anything else is just nonsense.

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118030805#Comment_118030805

What will ultimately kill the EU will be IF and it’s very possible...that that the EU continue to disregard the safety and wellbeing of the citizens of its member states...

122 Islamic terror attacks have occurred in the EU since 2015. 382 people were murdered in these attacks and thousands more injured. EU states are having to spend millions more on security, counter terrorism, intelligence etc... yet practically zero tangible control on their borders...

The UK won’t rejoin, I can see other countries in years looking at joining them.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032959#Comment_118032959

If that breaks up EU then the people in EU are even more stupid then you think they are; the number #1 source of terrorist attacks are not Muslims but home grown by separatists followed by leftist movements. Why waste billions on screening at the border for something that don't make up even 15% of the terrorist attacks?

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032889#Comment_118032889

You can say the NIP is a "load of nonsense" - but it (i.e. an Irish Sea border) is the ONLY solution to a non-SM brexit where NI remains in UK, there is no return to a border in Ireland & Ireland remains free. It's all well and good to say you don't think it's a perfect solution - but then you explain (and defend) your choice.

Ireland's demands of the UK were very simple and limited - and the UK immediately promised them - "no hard border" . The NIP was the only solution the UK could come up with and accept- what else would you want ireland to do? Invade the UK? Occupy Northern Ireland?

Johnson put himself in his position by advocating brexit, forcing through the hardest of hard brexits AND wanting a withdrawal agreement. He didn't have to sign the withdrawal agreement - he and his 80 seat majority could have left with no deal - "no deal is better than a bad deal" - remember that?

"No hard border" was the price Ireland wanted in return for the UK having a withdrawal agreement - they got the withdrawal agreement they wanted, now they must pay the relevant price.

So what it your solution: you honestly believe that Ireland should accept a hard border? Obviously those 300+ crossing points would need to be reduced (again) to something manageable - which routes would you block? The same as last time?

A border through Ireland will obviously be militarised - how many minutes would pass by at the 300 crossings dividing villages from their hinterlands before the first British customs official forcing checks on locals who don't accept brexit or believe they should be part of the UK gets shot? Do you think it would be more or less than 5 minutes? Why?

How much smuggling would there be through this border? How quickly would GMO foods& British BSE beef take before being found in every town in Ireland? What would the criminal gangs do with all the money they made from that? Start a charity?

If any Irish politician signed a treaty accepting that, how long do you think that politician would stay alive? Longer or shorter than Michael Collins? How long would their political party stay in existence? Do you think it would be gone and lost forever within a week or a month?

I'm very interested in your response.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118032946#Comment_118032946

There are answers - I pointed them out - the UK and Johnson led us here- let him pay the price to get us out. I say no to your hard border in Ireland.