Fine Gael Demographic

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043383#Comment_118043383

I have noticed this as well. I think the penny has dropped with a lot of middle-class people when they send their kids to Dublin / Galway for college and see money evaporating in front of their eyes as they try to find accommodation for their kids. Sobers one up pretty quickly.

KaneToad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042784#Comment_118042784

If only we had an example of a SF govt that we could use as an indicator of how SF would perform in a govt scenario. Better still, if this example was geographically close to where we are so that we could draw some parallels.

Oh wait...

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043415#Comment_118043415

apples and oranges

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043189#Comment_118043189

...but they didn't just leave the market at it. They actively poured petrol on the fire. This is from Charlie McCreevy's wikipedia page:

From 1997 to 2000, McCreevy cut Capital Gains Tax from 40% to 20%, and extended Section 23 Tax allowances to the Upper Shannon Area (against the advice of the Finance Department) in the Finance Acts of 1998 and 1999. These included special tax incentives targeted at the area covered by the pilot Rural Renewal Scheme, which was later criticised by the Heritage Council for being introduced without a "Baseline Audit" to inform the level and scale of development to be supported through the scheme, not identifying priority areas suitable for development, not providing any strategic protection for designated areas including the corridor of the River Shannon nor promoting the use of sustainable design and building materials in any new build or refurbishment project supported by the scheme.[5]

These two measures of cutting Capital Gains Tax and providing tax incentives for property development in thinly populated rural areas have been partly responsible for the explosion in housing and commercial property speculation, which led ultimately to the collapse of the Irish banking system

They actively made everything worse.

2ndcoming

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043333#Comment_118043333

I think I just met one.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043404#Comment_118043404

yea i think both ffg are in serious trouble, both are slowly losing their traditional base, and i do think you re largely partially right in regards parents and grandparents starting to realise their off spring are in serious trouble, the next ge is gonna be very interesting, i suspect its gonna be a blood bath for them both

KaneToad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043422#Comment_118043422

You're saying SF, who claim to be an all island party, will behave differently in the ROI compared to NI?

Cyclingtourist

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043142#Comment_118043142

I told you my solution 'build proper homes and more of them' you're the one being sarcastic and personally abusive. I'm finished discussing anything with you.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043464#Comment_118043464

Their record in the North is their record, however, they by in large don't control the tax and spend levers in devolved government up North. That's the serious business of governance and it would be seriously remiss of you not to include that in your assessment. Stormont is for all intents and purposes a giant county council of the UK beholden to decisions from Whitehall.

KaneToad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043500#Comment_118043500

They voted to raise pension age in NI to 66 and pledged to reduce it in ROI to 65...

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043521#Comment_118043521

Northern Ireland Act 1988: by convention and constrained by legislation, NI was bound to remain in lockstep with the rest of the UK on big-ticket items like pensions, children's allowance etc. The pension @ 66 decision came from Whitehall and there was nothing that anyone in Stormont could do about it.

One should know the nitty-gritty before dropping the big H word.

KaneToad

So SF didn't support the legislation to increase the pension age?

Independent.ie

Mary Lou McDonald's party unanimously supported legislation passed by the Northern Assembly in 2012 which means the pension age in the North increases to 66 years this coming October.

Sinn Féin backed the Pension Bill, though it meant the age increase was brought forward by six years from the original date of 2026.

Examiner.ie

Sinn Féin unanimously supported legislation in Stormont which raised the pension age to 66 in 2012, which was implemented last year, however, TD Louise O'Reilly said this no longer the party's position.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043873#Comment_118043873

Know the reality. NI is bound by legislation to remain in lockstep with the rest of the UK on pensions. They could have voted against one supposes, which would have meant Westminster pulling the plug on Stormont and you'd be crowing about that then.

You either don't know or are deliberately trying to misrepresent the realities of devolved government and the legislative and constitutional framework of the UK.

In any case, Fine Gael thread as they say.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043246#Comment_118043246

I'll put it to you this way.

My outwardly moderate, liberal, middle class in-laws, in a certain east coast swing State, voted for Hillary the first time but Trump the second.

Why, says I? Because he's more likely to protect our money, says they.

Thats how a bunch of PD talking points are going to to help against SF.

And I didn't mention Housing, because its irrelevant. Its irrelevant to those who already own it and thats who FG are going after. They will try and terrify anyone who has a mortgage into not voting for SF, because the chances of wealth further increasing and the mortgage burden easing will lessen under SF.

Besides, SFs housing policies will be easily taken down with one question, 'how do you propose to do it without bankrupting the exchequer?'.

And if thats not enough, they can be interrogated on why their local Councillors have frustrated social and part-social housing schemes in some of the tightest supply areas in the Country again and again and again.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043959#Comment_118043959

At least you're honest about using boogeyman fear-mongering politics and trying to get property owners to drop their metaphorical monocles into their metaphorical sherry. We're getting close to the heart of the game FG are running on everybody.

Can you explain why FG bright young thing Emer Higgins objected to more housing units in one constituency than SF (allegedly did) combined across the entire Dublin urban area? Blocky blocky 😜

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043498#Comment_118043498

That's not very easy though is it? An acquaintance recently had a small extension priced - the lowest tender was 150% of the price that the house was (relatively recently) bought for. That's just 1 of many anecdotes. Material prices are crazy and rising, contractors are beyond capacity, Dublin is one of the most expensive cities in Europe to build and has some of the highest construction wages already and Ireland has a construction industry which is one of the most likely in the world to incur significant cost inflation due to demand - according to Turner & Townsend:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/dublin-third-most-expensive-city-in-europe-for-construction-costs-1.4626876

Plus building regulation standards went up again recently - which are expensive to comply with.

I personally don't see an easy way out of this which doesn't involve "build a time machine, travel back to the 1960's and build lots of high quality apartment blocks which can be readily upgraded".

KaneToad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043929#Comment_118043929

They could have voted against the Bill, as the SDLP did. It would not have collapsed Stormont. The difference in funding, as outlined by Sammy Wilson, would have to be taken from the public purse and the block grant - if NI were not to follow the UK. The political decision taken was to not try to find the funds elsewhere but to raise the pension age instead.

This is the exact opposite of what SF argued in Ireland.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118044524#Comment_118044524

False.

Facts and not conjecture for you:

All social security powers are devolved formally to Northern Ireland, aside from Child Benefit, Guardian’s Allowance, Working Tax Credit, and Child Tax Credit, which are ‘excepted’ powers. By long-standing convention, however – and more recently, under section 87 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 – Northern Ireland maintains ‘parity’ with social security, child maintenance, and pensions systems in Great Britain. In practice, this is an important limitation on the ability of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly to diverge from UK Government policy.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9048/

Yurt2

And further, if you're advocating that SF vote against Westminster legislative fait accompli on pensions and find the money elsewhere, how exactly is the NI Executive supposed to do so without tax and spend powers which are explicitly the preserve of the Chancellor in London? In your own time...

Or more pertinently, the topic of the thread: Fine Gael's existential conundrum

Cyclingtourist

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043994#Comment_118043994

I never said it would be easy but the simple fact is if more homes aren't built all the tinkering with the market won't give people places to live.

Northern Ireland run a deficit of about £10bn a year. It is a financial black hole run from Westminister. Stormont is basically there to keep the dialogue going and the bullets in the bunkers and has nothing to do with fiscal policy. Whenever they have a falling out and throw a tantrum in Stormont the show goes on regardless because someone else is in control.

Comparing that to running the republic of Ireland is pointless.

Getting back to the ROI...

Went through the Sinn Fein alternative 2021 budget. They are looking to build 4,000 affordable homes to buy. The majority of other housing they want to build is social housing.

We won't qualify for social housing or will be so far down the list it is effectively the same as our income is above average but not enough to buy anything other than a shoebox or a 3 bed semi detached in Dublin that has a list of issues that would keep you awake at night when looking at what is left after the cost of living and childcare.

They also want to remove the help to buy scheme for some unexplained reason.

Sinn Fein also said in this alternative budget they would reduce the cost of childcare by two thirds but didn't explain how this trick could be pulled off.

Very frustrating.

FG looking after those at the top and SF looking after those at the bottom. FF happy to let people bury themselves with a massive 30 year mortgage if they manage to escape the rent trap.

Being in the middle right now leaves you working just to pay the bills and give someone a 5% yield on their investment property.

No party is speaking for my (very large) cohort of voters.

At this stage I wouldn't be voting for Sinn Fein in the expectation that they will fix the issue but rather to send a message to FFG that broken promises will not be tolerated this time.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118046000#Comment_118046000

On help to buy

The following effect was observed in the UK with a similar scheme and has been observed over the course of the HTB here: Developers aren't thick, it just helps them increase the sticker price on new developments and in practice, the value of the tax rebate almost fully goes to the developer increasing the mortgage burden for the FTB and raising the price of new housing across the economy. It's a direct transfer to the developer at the expense of the exchequer and the buyer.

rolling boh

I think the traditional FG voter always thought they were that bit better class than the rest . Always banged on about the law and order party and their main concern about housing was whether any new building would affect the value of their own property if any were proposed near them .

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118043959#Comment_118043959

I'm not sure that your data point of a couple of voters in a different country with a radically different political system and number of parties is too relevant to the Irish context. Having said that there is definitely a wing in FG (and especially YFG) who'd like nothing more then to try and run a US-Republican party style playbook. As I said previously I don't think this would do anything except preach to the converted whilst alienating more moderate potential voters.

Let me ask you this. Why do you personally think that Sinn Fein saw such an unexpected surge in last year's election?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047015#Comment_118047015

Any schemes from other countries that you know of that worked well and could be implemented here?

Murph85

Op you are in the same situation as myself and most of my mates. Mid 30's... Ex FG voters... They have lost all of our votes and my parents. An insane rate of marginal tax, paid over a pittance. Rip off housing. No reform of anything. What does this rip off marginal rate get? free luxury housing, medical card , Xmas bonus for those that never work. While many of their current or ex voters are becoming worse off by the year...

The spend to tax cut ratio this budget was around 8 or 9:1! Every year with inflation that they didnt link the rates or tax to earnings, as in the past several budgets, people are worse off!

They barely touch the totally insignificant LPT as its a political hot potato. Raising it a few euro a year causes political hell! But you? the young? no problem with property prices increasing several hundred euro A DAY! For years on end and then you pay the extra interest on it!

FG are left wing, with the exception of rip off property prices and being friends of big business! They only needed to delude the peasants into thinking they were on our side, to win seats and power. There is no difference between FF and FG. If FG were in FF position during the first boom, it would have been the same outcome. FG were calling for INCREASED spending during that period!

We really need a new party, even one, that won 15-20 seats would be a game changer in Irish politics! it could leverage serious power!

Not voting is probably the best option to force change. Short of starting a new party yourself, many of us crave one, but non of us will do it! FG losing influence and seats, will either force them to listen to those that have and or do vote for them OR someone might grab this open goal by the balls and actually start a new party...

They have two main voters, the hardworking they lied to about change and rewarding work. Those screwed by the housing "crisis" that they love... Then older "my father voter FG" type. The young should be moving away from them in droves... Their biggest concern is how much to raise the state pension every year...

Force the change!

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118042936#Comment_118042936

Let them remove the LPT! The rate it is charged at, is a total farce. Its not even worth collecting! Many people pay nothing or a hundred euro a year! It is those already paying far more than their fair share, that are the only ones contributing anything worth talking about to LPT. SF also want to abolish any penalty for not paying motor tax by the year, I totally agree with this too...

I disagree with a lot of what SF do. But voting FG again isnt an option. A new party that is nothing like any of the current disgraceful offerings, is what is needed...

Murph85

Op I would highly recommend watching this! It gives you serious insight into housing and financial systems and why the system has become the way it is... The poster wanderer78 refers to much of it , in his posts...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL3n59wC8kk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL3n59wC8kk

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118047562#Comment_118047562

Not voting is probably the best option to force change

How does this work? Even if there was a sizeable number of you doing it it would be very difficult to pick out among other GE trends. FG might just conclude "Oh our vote's moved to left parties so we've got to shift left to recapture it.