Acceptable Covid death rates

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118146503#Comment_118146503

They produce multiple models, but they have been turning out fairly accurate thus far.

But the topic is acceptable covid death rates, are you trying to argue that we remove all restrictions and hospitals won't be overrun, or what exactly?

timmyntc

If you dont agree with an acceptable level of death, then what is the endgame? Because its not going to get any better from here.

Boosters will not make the situation any better, as based on data from those already doing boosters (Israel et al) they too have waning efficiency, and you'll end up needing a 4th. And a 5th, and so on.

So either we build up some surge capacity for the winter (because the surges are seasonal like most respiratory viruses) and live life as normal, or else we never go back to normal. Not ever. Mask wearing, social distancing, vaccine passports (that expire if you dont get your boosters) for the rest of our lives.

Covid is not going anywhere fast, so either we accept that some people will die, or we hide from it and never go back to normal.

I don't agree or disagree with an acceptable level of death because I don't accept the premise that we either have restrictions or hospitals are overwhelmed. What is an acceptable level of death for heart disease, cancer, flu and other preventable illnesses? Why do we only ask this question for CV19, a disease so lethal that according to official data only 99.8% of the infected survive? Throughout this "crisis" the hospitals have never been overwhelmed and that was before vaccines and facemasks, so why would it be any different this year compared to every year for the past 30 years when hospitals have been "overwhelmed" and we didn't lose the plot and lock everyone in their homes to "protect" the HSE. The REAL question is why is it that, despite billions of euro later, increased budgets and emergency top-ups every year, the HSE can't provide a service that's fit for purpose and meets the increased and known/expected demand during the winter?

boardlady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118086926#Comment_118086926

Oh for god's sake. People go into nursing homes for just that reason - to die. Everyone dies of something eventually. And those in nursing homes are by nature, elderly, and at 'dying-age'. That is a very bald way of stating it, but it really is just a matter of human mortality. We will all die of something and the elderly and vulnerable are more at risk at all stages.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118146534#Comment_118146534

I don't know what models you've been looking even a cursory look at the initial Neil Ferguson model which got everyone into this mess has been wildly off the mark.

What is an acceptable level of death for heart disease, cancer, flu and other preventable illnesses? Why do we only ask this question for CV19, a disease so lethal that according to official data only 99.8% of the infected survive? Throughout this "crisis" the hospitals have never been overwhelmed and that was before vaccines and facemasks, so why would it be any different this year compared to every year for the past 30 years when hospitals have been "overwhelmed" and we didn't lose the plot and lock everyone in their homes to "protect" the HSE. The REAL question is why is it that, despite billions of euro later, increased budgets and emergency top-ups every year, the HSE can't provide a service that's fit for purpose and meets the increased and known/expected demand during the winter?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118146802#Comment_118146802

People do not go into nursing homes to die.

They go into nursing homes to be cared for in their old age - not to be left to die without treatment so hospital beds can be kept available for younger people, as happened during the first wave.

If all the nursing home residents that were sacrificed then had been sent to hospital, the hospitals would most definitely have been overwhelmed.

With that, I'm stepping away. This is to close for me.

skimpydoo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118146802#Comment_118146802

Total BullShit. People go into nursing homes to be cared for. You could be in your early 60's and can't cope living on your own and you have nobody to care for you. Should that person be allowed to die when they are still young?

boardlady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118147164#Comment_118147164

I stand by my comment. I agree, I have worded it harshly. Entering a nursing home is a one-way ticket largely. Very occasionally, people go into a home for a respite situation. They go there, however, because they are vulnerable and need a respite scenario. My point is that nursing homes are by and large centralised areas where those who are elderly/frail/vulnerable/at end-of-life go to be cared for in the final stage of their life. It is disingenuous to suggest that every 'covid-related' death that took place in nursing homes over the past 18 months or so, would not have occurred at all, but for covid. I am not particularly young, and I have had family go into, and die in, a nursing home. It is simply a fact of human society that we have nursing homes for such people and that there is a high percentage of death annually in these places. I am not denying covid either in case anyone is reading that.

boardlady

Millions of people are 'allowed' to die young worldwide. Hunger being the largest killer. Cancer kills children. Drug overdose kills young adults. etc etc. Nobody has a 'right' to a long life.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118146743#Comment_118146743

The endgame is next Spring when the winter surge on hospitals abates and restrictions drop and we truly start getting back to normal.

Boosters (go get vaccinated yourself, it will help!) will help the vulnerable, new (expensive) pill treatments will help the rest. We're about 2/3 to 3/4 of the way through a marathon (I reckon), it's not the time to throw in the towel.

But excess deaths cannot occur without overwhelming hospitals unless we stop treating people, those who want to allow excess deaths to occur can only do this by deciding who to treat and who not to treat. We're lucky we live in a country that doesn't treat that as a decision and just treats everybody (acknowledging that what happened in the care homes was awful and likely to be subject to an inquiry when all is said and done).

The only thing that changes this is to show a model that doesn't have restrictions that doesn't overwhelm hospitals and that doesn't exist at the moment.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118147408#Comment_118147408

In Ireland we treat everyone, childhood cancer, drug overdoses, we feed the hungry, there is no discrimination, deaths, of course, can't always be prevented, but all can be treated in an attempt to save lives, you need to present a thesis on why we should stop doing that and convince people to implement that thesis.