12th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread!

Champagne Sally

My YR app says snow for Christmas Day 🥳☃️🌨 We shall see!!

pauldry

GFS is still in a mild mood but we will see what the next uns bring. Its definitely cold the lead to Xhristmas. Could be 4c and minus 1 max n min. Then if there's precipitation some could be snow. I thought there was zero chance of this. But what do I know?

Rebelbrowser

As those of you who follow the t120+ thread will know, it really is beginning to look (a lot?) like a (white) Christmas - or close enough! GFS and ECM for now both showing really good conditions for snow around Christmas / Stephen's day. See below:-

pauldry

Yes gone from absolute zero a week ago to about 50% chance now. What changed?

Rebelbrowser

Posted this in wrong thread, belonged here...

Ho Ho Ho, Merry Christmas from the big two models this morning...

Omicron, Schmomicron.....

tiegan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118335726#Comment_118335726

Schnomicron - I fixed that for ya - would be a treat alright!!

Wine Goddess

I know all the weather experts on here are rightly being cautious regarding the possibility of White Gold but I'm still feeling very excited about even the possibility of it!

Lovely change from the other major topic of the day!

pauldry

Sat24 showing rain spreading from the Southwest on Christmas Day. Ah cmon. I'll take dry n cold but not 6c n rain.

mcburns07

This is why I was hoping for the high to stay put even if it meant no chance of snow. A dry week at Christmas is enough for me, looks like we might end up with cold rain down south. Hopefully we get lucky.

Rebelbrowser

Just to keep this updated. Amazingly, with just over 4 days to go to the big day, no one really knows what weather to expect. This has been debated constantly over in the t120+ thread (now moving to t120- presumably) but basically the models keep flip flopping and swopping outcomes. One minute the ECM (european, best there is) model is showing cold from 25 to 29 Dec whilst the GFS (the US model) shows mild south westerlies, 12 hours later and they've swapped. This keeps happening too. Basically none of the models have a consistent view of an Atlantic low pressure that approaches Ireland on Christmas eve. If it goes over us we get milder, wetter weather. If it goes south of us it drags in cold air from the northeast and, depending on how far south and how quickly she goes this could be on Xmas day, though more likely Stephen's day. Either way, if the low "slides" under the high pressure block to the NE it could get interesting. In any case the further north you are in Ireland, the better your chances of benefitting from this.

At present cold from 26 December onwards looks an alright bet (say 45% shot). Cold / snow on Xmas day itself is probably a 15% shot at this stage, maybe 25% in NI.

Next models roll out from about 4pm to 7pm so look for updates then.

Oh, and continue to believe 😉

Rebelbrowser

Just to cross post from the t120 thread, GFS for Christmas night very interesting still...

I’ll believe it when the phone apps come on board.

Thud

YR is showing a serious amount of rain for Christmas day inDublin, are the models showing this?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118358264#Comment_118358264

GFS is showing alot of precipitation for Christmas Day particularly over the southern half of the country and this may push northwards into Christmas Day night/Stephens Day morning so it's possible that a 12 to 24 hour event could happen depending on the exact track of the low pressure and if it stalls or pivots over Munster and Leinster.

This would mostly be rain on Christmas Day daytime and towards midnight this may turn to sleet or wet snow in places but areas close to the coast such as Dublin may just see the rain become cold rain.

Light rain by 7am in Dublin.

Rain becomes heavier as the day progresses and this may turn wintry over the Wicklow mountains.

Through Christmas Day night and on into Stephens Day early hours and the rain may push a bit further north and turn to sleet or wet snow but rain likely near the coasts.

Still raining on Stephens Day morning with sleet or wet snow possible in midland areas but the wintry precipitation could easily turn back to rain as temperatures rise a bit during daylight hours.

Still rain or showers in the Dublin area up to 7pm Stephens Day.

With so much uncertainty in advance of Christmas Day the next GFS run is likely to be different again and may not be nearly as wet as this forecast. This forecast will probably change several times before the 25th.

pauldry

Also due to battleground scenario all possibilities are on the table right up to the weather forecast Christmas eve. May be that we get a bit of everything as in rain and snow and dry and cloudy further North with light showers in the extreme North of sleet and snow.

mcburns07

Looking grim now for the south, 70-80mm over the next 4 days til midnight Christmas Day.

Gonzo

The 18z is milder than the 12z, looks wetter and very little wintryness away from the mountain tops. Temperatures generally 4 to 10C on Christmas Day and 2 to 10C on Stephens Day, mildest in the south-west and coldest in northern areas. GFS 00z later is likely to be different to this again.

Rebelbrowser

Not looking great I'll grant you. 10c and rain about as bad as it gets. Last week we looked nailed on for a dry, cold day - in fact it looked that way all the way to NYE. Nothing is ever certain in this country weather wise....

pauldry

Yeah it's like we're trying to hang on to the white dream by a thread but 4 to 10c is daytime. Nighttime could be near 0c in many North and North midland areas

mcburns07

I was happier seeing the charts with high pressure tbh, snow chances being shown by the charts are much more hit than miss in this country. Hopefully things will pick up in Jan. Good to remember that winter never really gets going til then anyway.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118358993#Comment_118358993

It’s nearly as hard to get cold, dry frosty weather as it is trying to get snow in Ireland these days! You have to laugh really.

Rebelbrowser

Lest you aren't following the other threads, sad to confirm there will not be a white Christmas nor anything like that out to New Year. In fact the models are now showing mild weather with almost exceptionally mild weather by NYD. On the plus side, we got to about 21 Dec with realistic chances for a White Christmas for some. On the down side, the models performed awfully and were leading us up the garden path basically. One of these years we will strike it lucky....

NickNickleby

All along, I've been following the various weather threads here. The anticipation of a surprise delivery of the white stuff is almost - almost - as good as the real thing actually arriving. It now seems our hopes have been dashed. Anyway, my gas boiler gave up the ghost yesterday and €150 later, I learn its toast and can be fixed for more than 500 or replaced for about2k. But neither before Christmas. So, if it stays mild I won't complain. On the other hand, I grew up in a house with one coal fire and one electric fire which was used with caution for fear of burning the house down, and more importantly , running up the electricity bill. So its back to the good old days for us.

Merry Christmas everyone!!

KanyeSouthEast

Like death and taxes tumbleweed in this thread by the 23rd every year!

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118368353#Comment_118368353

One of these years Kanye (or just Ye now?), one of these years....

Rebelbrowser

Just for posterity, details on yesterday's weather below. Highest temp was 12c at Valentia, lowest was 4.6 at Casement and there was a lot rain, especially in Leinster, with Johnstown Castle recording 58.9mm. And no, there was no snow....

See ye all from 1 November 2022 onwards, same Bat place, same Bat thread.... ( as I type this I'm reminded that we will share the run in to Christmas next year with a World Cup - mad).

Gonzo

Yesterday was possibly the most grim and wettest Christmas Day weather i've ever experienced. Hopefully Christmas Day next year is not as mild or as wet. A dry cold day with a frost is all I ask for.