Is the Lotto too hard to win ?

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118256821#Comment_118256821

Yeah you’d get flights and the first couple of nights in a hotel paid for...

dxhound2005

140,000 won a prize on Wednesday and 166,000 on Saturday. Depending on the upper tier results, the majority of the money paid out is often to the bottom two tiers. Having a one winner raffle would do away with that distribution. And would reduce ticket sales, when there are never going to be rollover jackpots to attract extra spending.

Wheety

Not won again. I see their PR team are pushing the "I know we've pushed the odds of the jackpot to over 10m to 1 for a population of half that, but people have won smaller prizes so keep playing"

dxhound2005

Just over €1 million for the 5 + Bonus Saturday 04 December. The previous two Saturdays it was just under €1 million. So ticket sales must be continuing at around the same level.

magicbastarder

IIRC the 'spin the wheel and win up to £250,000' remained unwon (the £250k max did) until christmas eve that year; and it was won twice in the one night. probably the late 80s. can anyone confirm if my memory is correct?

cj maxx

It's shocking the amount of money has gone Unclaimed. I'm guilty of buyng tickets and stuffing them in my wallet till they're in tatters.

yerwanthere123

The current list of unclaimed prizes

https://www.lottery.ie/useful-info/unclaimed-prizes

Prizes of €500,000, €826,000 and even €1,000,000 currently unclaimed. The million hasn't been claimed since 13th of November! You'd wonder if the majority of these are people forgetting they did it and never checking their tickets, or is there a lot of panicked people out there frantically trying to find their tickets somewhere. Probably a mixture of both. How could anyone live with knowing they missed out on life-changing money.

dxhound2005

There is a prize of IR£20,000 won in Prize Bonds years ago, still unclaimed. The letter with the cheque would have come back marked "Gone Away" or some other reason, and they were never traced. The good thing unlike lottery prizes is that someone can come along and claim their money at any time. Same with Premium Bonds in the UK.

More than two million Premium Bond prizes worth a combined £74 million remain unclaimed, according to the latest figures from National Savings and Investments (NS&I). The unclaimed prizes include five worth £100,000 and nine worth £50,000.

But the €100 million unclaimed lottery prizes, is dwarfed by billions in dormant accounts. Again if someone reactivates the account (dormant means inactive for 15 years or more) the money is theirs. The Government is drawing down money from these accounts under legislation for the exchequer.

nigeldaniel

I had an interesting chat with an old relative yesterday about the lotto. Since a lot of post offices have closed down, old-timers get paid into the banks. A bit like most welfare money. As my relative told me, she would pick up her pension on Friday and spend 10 euros on tickets. Now it's [pension] going into the bank and she just does not bother with tickets at all. So I think it's down to not so many tickets being sold these days. And when tickets are sold people tend to go for the euro mill draw not the Irish one.

Just my two pennies worth here.

dxhound2005

Not supported by the results. Since the cap, Wednesday draws have consistently been in the region of 140,000 winners. Saturdays is always a lot higher than that. And since the cap, the next tier(s) get a payout in the same ballpark as the amount that is added to the jackpot in times when it is just a normal rollover. That couldn't keep happening unless the money was coming in from sales.

CrabRevolution

I was in the "yeah it's a hopeless bet and a waste of money, but it's nice to dream for a few hours between buying the ticket and looking up the numbers" camp about the lotto. Being called an idiot and a taxed fool etc. didn't really dissuade me from spending €3.50 a week on a euromillions ticket.

That is, until I joined a syndicate. Few hundred quid to enter, 100 lines a draw for all euromillions draws for a year. I knew it wouldn't greatly increase my chances of a (shared) jackpot by much and I'd still almost certainly be down money, but I figured it'd be pleasant to hoover up the match 2s and 3s and lotto plus prizes you're bound to win playing 200 lines of the lotto a week.

The actual results were pathetic. For €350 worth of tickets, some draws you might only win a tenner but I don't think it ever won a 3 figure sum in a single draw.

All of this is logical and predictable and backs up the maths, but it really laid bare for me just how poor the odds are of winning anything significant. The illusion was crushed and I haven't bothered with the lotto since.

dxhound2005

Your experience is not what proves (lays bare as you put it) just how long the odds are. That was the same before you started playing, and remains the same after you stopped. Not pathetic, but logical and mostly predictable.

Amik

Podcast from The Journal with a UCC Math lecturer on our topic:

https://www.thejournal.ie/the-explainer-lotto-podcast-rollover-5624766-Dec2021/

dxhound2005

Still no winner Saturday 11 December, but the second tier got over €900K. From what I can find on Google, there were 11 Jackpot wins in 2020. So assuming 104 draws a year, that would be 93 draws with a rollover. This year it appears to be 4 Jackpot wins so far, and if it continues to year end, 100 draws with a rollover. 93 and 100 out of 104 are in the same sort of ballpark.

One thing I found is that not long before this losing streak, three Jackpots were won close together.

June 06 2021

One lucky person in Galway woke up a multimillionaire this morning as their Lotto ticket landed them €2,475,303 last night.

The win means it is the third Saturday in a row where the Lotto jackpot has been won, making them the third new millionaire in the past 15 days.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308384#Comment_118308384

Clearly 93 and 100 out of 104 are not remotely in the same ballpark.

The 3 wins before this long rollover are very worrying indeed. To a casual observer.

dxhound2005

If 93 draws produced no jackpot winner in one year, it is very much in the same ballpark for 100 draws to produce no winner in the next year. 96.15% of draws, against 89.4%. The balls have no memory, each draw stands on its own.

They need to lower the number of balls

NIMAN

Do you think their sales are taking a hit with all the recent negative publicity?

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118310598#Comment_118310598

The last time they increased them was 6 years ago, so they have served well enough, with the jackpot never capped until this year. The "problem" is the number of tickets with the same combinations. Fewer combinations with numbers over 31, because of birthdays. And I heard today on the radio that about 500 people do 1 to 6 on a line in every draw. In the UK that is 10,000 people.

They might consider reducing the 47 after this, but there is a balance to be struck between having too many jackpot winners and too few. Bigger jackpots attract more sales. @NIMAN the prizes being paid out show that sales have stayed up.

The Lotto numbers to avoid: Going for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 will only bring you a tiny windfall

• About 10,000 people choose that combination of numbers each week
• Tonight's estimated £3.8m jackpot would be £380 each if they come up

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118310152#Comment_118310152

Statistically, that's not remotely in the same ballpark.

The balls have no memory. But moneymen do....

Snugbugrug28

Yes it is. Tenner a month on the lottery is 520 a year. That will cover the annual energy bills in a new build.

Fandymo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118313210#Comment_118313210

A tenner a month on the lottery is €120 a year buddy. Don't be offended if I'm not gonna take financial advice from you.

Snugbugrug28

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118314240#Comment_118314240

Clearly a typo. A tenner a week is 520 a year but you should be very proud of yourself for picking that out. Maybe it's even internet medal territory.

Tell you what, don't take financial advice from me and keep doing the lotto.

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316597#Comment_118316597

Its actually €521.80. Morto for you :D

Pendanticism apart, agree with your sentiment. With the current odd setup, the utility aspect of the Irish lotto is very low. There's having a punt /hope betting but they've pushed it too far. It should be more like El Gordo but instead it's more like El-itist

Strumms

From the regulators website :

The Regulator of the National Lottery is an independent regulatory office established by statute under the National Lottery Act 2013.  The Regulator procures and regulates the holding of the Irish National Lottery.

The Regulator carries out her functions in a manner most likely to ensure –

1. that the National Lottery is run with all due propriety,
2. that the interests of participants in the National Lottery are protected,
3. that the long term sustainability of the National Lottery is safeguarded, and

subject to a) to c), to ensure revenues allocated to Good Causes are maximized.

interests of all participants ? The word ‘ likely ‘ is interesting.

imagine a person being interviewed for a job as a bus driver... “ I want this job as I’m likely to operate the bus in a safe, responsible and legal fashion “...

Likely: such as well might happen or be true; probable

cj maxx

Yes it's too hard to win. What was proposed as a self sustainable lottery with a social aspect ie spreading funds to worthwhile causes should either raise the € cap or reduce the amount of numbers

cj maxx

Though, I did have a feeling I was going to win the euromillions once ( the same one as your doll in Limerick won). I was certain I was going to win it. The day of the draw I got a phone call to say I had won an all expenses trip to the Chinese GP. I was devastated 😢

Sorry to the girl from 3 who rang me .

TXPTGR1

why Would the company behind it change anything- sales aren’t dropping- plenty of greedy rubes to fleece every week- if I was them I’d be adding more balls and skimming more off the top

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317598#Comment_118317598

https://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2013/act/13/enacted/en/print#sec8

If you read that in conjunction with the subsection which follows in the legislation (subsection 3) I think it makes sense. Section 41 is to do with Good Causes. So it is saying the regulator needs to keep a good eye on the operator, while not clipping their wings too much to result in a reduction of sales and consequently less money going to the Good Causes.

Functions of Regulator

9. (1) The principal function of the Regulator shall be to procure the holding of the National Lottery—

(a) by a person under a licence, or

(b) where no licence is in force, under section 10 .

(2) The Regulator shall exercise his or her functions under this Act in such manner he or she considers the most likely to ensure—

(a) that the National Lottery is run with all due propriety,

(b) that the interests of participants in the National Lottery are protected, and

(c) that the long term sustainability of the National Lottery is safeguarded.

(3) Subject to subsection (2), the Regulator shall in exercising his or her functions seek to ensure that revenues allocated to the purposes, as provided for in section 41, are as great as possible subject to any terms in this regard contained in the licence.

Strumms

1 in 10,737,573 are the odds of winning the Irish lottery... that’s according to the lotto themselves...

Amik

Looks like a "must be won" draw is on the horizon!

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/lotto-operators-seek-approval-for-must-be-won-draw-after-19m-jackpot-not-won-for-six-months-41149948.html

It should never have been capped in my opinion! It's creaming from the top!

Why did they say they would tax the winners if it was a prize above 20 Million?

Would they tax you if you won the Euro Millions?

It's becoming very like the Prize Bonds with a system of reduced winnings.

I'll never do the Irish Lottery again & I hope others feel the same!

dxhound2005

It couldn't be more different than the Prize Bonds. And the prizes have not been reduced.

H

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318236#Comment_118318236

and mathematics. Its 47!/ 41! * 6!

in general N!/(N-B)!(B)!

where N is the total number of balls and B is the number picked. ! is factorial.

for the original 39 balls I get 1 in 3,262,623

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118192673#Comment_118192673

Jaysus. The Irish taxpayer was swindled on that contract.

dxhound2005

The original was 6 numbers out of 36. That is what made possible the foreign syndicate which tried to buy tickets for all the possible combinations.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118323095#Comment_118323095

When they expanded the no of numbers they had to cap it. If the present senario happened to an uncapped lotto the JP would be in the order of 70 million+. Long before it would have rolled over this far an attempt wood have been made to do all the combination's and win the JP. With the small population of the country, the chance of a second would be miniscule.

To do all the combination's would cost about 20 million. If you attempted this at a JP of 30million, you would add 5 million to the JP ( making it 35 million) then add 5 million to M5+B, M5,M4, M4+B etc which the syndicate would win the majority of.

If no joint winner the syndicate would net 40 million before costs, if there was a joint winner the syndicate would still have 4-5 million above cost of tickets

dxhound2005

A cap is fair anyway. It still leaves a big jackpot. And if that is not won, it pays out the money which would have gone to increase the jackpot in "normal" times to whoever matches 5 + Bonus. If nobody matches 5 + Bonus then that money is divided between all the 5 number winners.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118323200#Comment_118323200

Oh yes they have!

Savers short changed as prize bond pay out slashed – FF (fiannafail.ie)

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118323293#Comment_118323293

I should have made clear that I was writing that about the Lotto prizes.

What do you mean by this:

It's becoming very like the Prize Bonds with a system of reduced winnings.

dxhound2005

Just in case anyone is not familiar with Prize Bonds, than link is way out of date. The notional interest rate has been reduced at least three times since that was written, and currently stands at 0.35%. With over 99.5% of the prizes being €50, the effective rate is around 0.25%.

Amik

Norway has a similar sized population to ours so I went to check their Lotto results. They have a 7/34 system and the equivalent of a million+ Euro winner EVERY draw - often more than one! Now I'm thinking it's not oil and salmon that make them rich.

Oddly they list the sex and county of each winner. :P

https://www.norsk-tipping.no/lotteri/lotto/resultater

dxhound2005

Could be a man living right next door to Russia.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118323334#Comment_118323334

Because they have to pick 7 those odds are not that different to Ireland.

Amik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118324535#Comment_118324535

Norway Lotto odds are 1 in 5,379,616 according to my calculations.

Irish Lotto is 1 in 10,737,573. So 50% better chance of winning in Oslo.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118328746#Comment_118328746

Probably a slightly higher population as well. It means the odds of an extra long rollover is very slim. Ireland's is a freak but the odds are too high for the population base

cj maxx

I meant to do it on the app, but completely forgot when I was across the border. Seems i saved €2.50

Wheety

Not won again. When they brought in the cap, they should have thought about something like this. I know this is a bit of a freak run but they should have looked at the Euromillions and said if it's not won after 5 draws at the cap it rolls down to the next prize category where there's a winner.

Over 10m/1 for our population is a bit ridiculous.

When it was 45 number the odds were still 8m/1. The regulator should not have allowed the increase to 47.

yerwanthere123

Getting very embarrassing for them now in fairness. Should never have been increased beyond 45 balls, I guess greed took over.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118328948#Comment_118328948

🤔 That’s not how it works. Think about it.