Is the Lotto too hard to win ?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118328746#Comment_118328746

Yeh, I got the number of total balls wrong. You are right - and that number for Norway is where we should be.

Atlantic Dawn

Right, time to take this serious, after watching Superman III it looks to me that 3 lines will be needed to cover all bases and put this to sleep. I am taking the average of each number drawn since it was last won in ascending order and then the min and the max of each...

So for Wednesday, 3 sets of numbers based on those already drawn...

Average - 8, 14, 22, 28, 35, 42

Lowest - 1, 2, 9, 13, 19, 25

Highest - 33, 38, 39, 42, 46, 47

Numbers of previous draws sourced from https://www.irishlottery.com/archive-2021

cj maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345146#Comment_118345146

How exactly does it work? Pick 6 numbers and hope for the best?

The lottery was supposed to be about raising funds for good causes while being self sustaining. Now it's a screw the fools for everything and maximise profit.

callaway92

Looking forward to someone winning around Christmas and getting the usuals with the ‘sure I knew they’d wait and have a Christmas winner of course, it’s always the same’

When the person would say the same if it was won on any Bank Hol or significant weekend

Laviski

While I do think they should have a must win game once capped.

The good thing is that the prize money for the next tier winners is decent. Yesterday the 5 + bonus got a mill where normally they get what 10k? If that wasn't one the guys with just 5 numbers are walking away with 30k abouts.... Where normally they get 100 euro

silver linings and all that

Wheety

Will there be a winner on Christmas Day? 🙄

Imagine the outcry of fix. 😂

Atlantic Dawn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345258#Comment_118345258

Big fat zero win, I will have to recheck my calculations so to speak, perhaps a small rounding issue to bring the big one home 😁

dxhound2005

I do 8 draws using the same play slip every time. This morning 23 Dec the machine in the shop rejected the slip, "Too Many Advance Draws".

I remember that happened with the Euro Millions in advance of one of their changes. To me it must mean a complete redesign of the draw, probably fewer numbers than 47. Any Must Win draw for the €19 million, would be catered for in the current game, just pay out the money to lower tier(s).

Wheety

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118364970#Comment_118364970

Lotto Game Update – Advance Play Countdown Commences from Thursday December 16th | Irish National Lottery

Not won on Christmas Day. According to the above link they have sought permission for a must be won draw. Will probably happen. They should make it part of their T&Cs when they reduce the number of balls again.

Atlantic Dawn

The problem is if it's won there will be near zero appetite to touch the draw for a few months until it builds back up to €4-5million.

Wheety

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118373129#Comment_118373129

I wonder what the split is between the play every draw with the same numbers crowd and the dip in when it's a big draw crowd.

Atlantic Dawn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118373144#Comment_118373144

Yes it would be nice if they published what today's draw would have translated to as a must win to see what each of the wins would have got.

jmlad2020

Makes me laugh on the lotto website. "Guaranteed €19million". Guaranteed for 7 months now.

Yes it is too hard to win. I hope they hurry up and change it.

How about creating 19 different millionaires in a big raffle? You will change 19 lives.

Wheety

Why did the regulator allow them to bring it up to 47 numbers?

"The Regulator carries out her functions in a manner most likely to ensure –

1. that the National Lottery is run with all due propriety,
2. that the interests of participants in the National Lottery are protected,
3. that the long term sustainability of the National Lottery is safeguarded, and

subject to a) to c), to ensure revenues allocated to Good Causes are maximized."

How did that protect the interests of the participants?

Harryd225

I can't even get a winner on the horse racing these days, what chance have I got on the lotto

An Ri rua

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376166#Comment_118376166

1in 10.7m.

You're welcome.

animalinside

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376867#Comment_118376867

There are 50 numbers now, it was 47 when they calculated that.

animalinside

oh no wait, I was looking at the Euromillions. As you were. 😆

Atlantic Dawn

A new ad with Eric Cantona needed to bring it over the line, remember this, lol...

https://twitter.com/KillianM2/status/1476293866596835340?t=p5Sp6HUm2mzZeVd2W-Hs6w&s=19

skinny90

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345258#Comment_118345258

you would have matched 5 numbers and be 40K richer if you picked the right combo from that list on the last draw :D

dxhound2005

Inadvertently the Lotto have created the sort of draw that I have seen people on the interntet looking for. That is nobody gets a very big jackpot, but a few people get around a million, or failing that dozens of people get €30K or more. All the time leaving a big 19 million as an attraction. This should satisfy both the "It's too much for one person" crowd, and the "They should split up the prizes more" crowd.

It ran for the last 6 years or so with 47 numbers never generating a capped jackpot, so the argument against 47 numbers would not have arisen until recently.

Atlantic Dawn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118395463#Comment_118395463

So you are saying I was getting close 😁.

I won a whole €10 on Wednesday using the same set of numbers, going to try them again on Saturday, then they will be retired.

Dr. Bre

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0112/1273370-national-lottery/

it will be won on Saturday!

jacool

If you want to roughly gauge player numbers, see how many people win the €500 prize. There is one per 10000 lines played (albeit with plus selected)

Quantum Erasure

whats the betting there'll be one winner of the jackpot Saturday, and loads of people with 5 and the bonus thinking they won a share of 19 mill...

ForestFire

Last few weeks draws and what the winnings would be for the highest levels with matching numbers.

Match 5 + Bonus divided by 3 winners = €6.3Million each

Match 5 divided by 24 winners = 794K each

Match 5 + Bonus divided by 3 winners = €6.3Million each

Match 5 divided by 28 winners = 680K each

Match 5 divided by 17 winners = 1.12Million each

Match 5 divided by 36 winners = 529K each

Match 5 + Bonus divided by 1 winners = €19 Million each

So if no jackpot winner again and the prize winners remain somewhat consistent!! (more players this week??)

So 5+bonus likely to make you a multi-millionaire anyway

Match 5 somewhere between 500K to 1M potentially...still not bad I guess

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118470575#Comment_118470575

Approximately 20% chance of a winner, and 80% no winner, same as in every draw. There will not be loads of 5 plus bonus either way.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118471041#Comment_118471041

yeh, same odds as the jackpot. The next level will have a good chance of being won by a few people.

dxhound2005

A few being up to 3. Unless something exceptional happens. It was zero some draws, and never higher than 3 since the jackpot was capped.

Quantum Erasure

i dunno, i'd say the amount of lines sold will be up significantly for the next draw

Atlantic Dawn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345258#Comment_118345258

Slight update to my numbers as new draws have occured since my original calculations scewing them slightly for the average cases...

Average - 7, 14, 21, 28, 34, 41

TheValeyard

Did the lotto for the first time in a long time. So I'm going to win. No point any of ye doing any numbers. Might as well send me all your tickets.

iluvfatfrogs

Rumours of a UK gang over buying up all the combinations.

Will it cost them €16m for all variations?

Even if the main €19m is divided by 2/3/4etc, imagine how many of the supplementary prizes and Lotto Plus prizes they would win

PTH2009

Have bad news for ye

I'm going to win the lotto tomorrow and its all mine

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474688#Comment_118474688

Over the border?

Fathom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058218768/is-the-lotto-too-hard-to-win

Odds of winning the Irish lottery has been reported to be 1 in 10.7 million. Euro jackpots 1 in 95.3 million. Mega millions 1 in 302.6 million.

Odds of being struck by lightning are much better. In the UK it’s 300,000 to one per BBC. ⛈

sligeach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118471273#Comment_118471273

They're called lurkers.

sligeach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474595#Comment_118474595

There's one now.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118476822#Comment_118476822

Have not done it in years. Spend a tenner all lotto no lotto plus. My so e and daughter who never do the lotto are doing it as well. I expect that 5-6 times the normal players.....to add to my winnings

Jeff2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474586#Comment_118474586

The first 4 numbers are multiples of 7.

I know it random but I be picking your last numbers.

Good luck everyone. :)

skinny90

It’s still very sneaky, they should have just done a draw/raffle or even a raffle with multiple winners. even if you were to match 5 or 5 plus the bonus the chances are still insane. Also I wonder will the normal pot be added to the lower tiers as was the last draws

dxhound2005

All the answers are here. There will be multiple winners if it is split between the Match 5's.

https://www.lottery.ie/news/19-million-lotto-jackpot-set-to-end-guaranteed-will-be-won-event

sligeach

I think this is all wrong. They shouldn't have done this. They should have kept going as is. Sure, it's been bizarre, bizarre isn't even strong enough a word for how there hasn't been a winner of the main Lotto jackpot for over 7 months. But the National Lottery kept saying there will be a winner eventually, so they should have let things play out naturally. Nor is it right to arbitrarily pick a date to end it.

I don't think it's fair on regular Lottery players either. If they wanted to make changes, they should have been made after this run had finished. Now it's not a 10 million to 1 chance of winning, it's effectively a raffle on the pool of participants tonight. People who have never played before, or contributed a cent to the jackpot before tonight, have as much a chance of winning as those who've made the pot what it is. There'll be people and syndicates from across the border playing tonight who are newbies as well. It's not a might be won, it's a will be won. So every Tom, Dick and Harriet is going to play tonight.

This doesn't fix anything either. The draw is free to do the same thing again and run another 4/5 months or whatever up to the new cap. There's never been a run like it ever before, nor will be ever again, thanks to the new rules. It's just so freakish. Looking over the past 25 draws on the National Lottery website, even the Lotto Plus 1 and 2 draws has seen their jackpots won 5 times(6 winners, 4 x €1,000,000 and 2 x €250,000) from the respective 50 draws, and there would be slightly less people who add Lotto Plus. I'd rather see a regular Lotto player(s) win tonight, over someone playing for the first time.

Grayson

I just skimmed the first page so I haven't read the whole thread but there's a reasom winnings are capped and the odds are what they are.

If the jackpot gets high enough then it can be gamed. It's possible to buy every combination so that you're guaranteed to win. It's happened before.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/how-a-secret-syndicate-managed-to-buy-the-lotto-35981173.html

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118479556#Comment_118479556

Why are you so concerned about who might win? They have as much right as you or me to take part.

Atlantic Dawn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118474688#Comment_118474688

Any truth in it that a UK gang is coming over to clean it out? My local newsagents said someone came in earlier and spent a grand on tickets, doubt there was method to their madness if it's a solo run. Could be 50 people in a business throwing €20 each in too I suppose.

sligeach

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118479586#Comment_118479586

I'm not "so concerned" as you put it. But I'll put it like this. There's 2 tickets in a hat, mine costs €6, your ticket costs €378. Winner takes all. It's not a perfect analogy, but would you like that?

dxhound2005

I thought it was three people, Tom, Dick and Harriet.

Princess Calla

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118479601#Comment_118479601

The sun (I know) ran a story about a syndicate coming from the isle of man.

Is there a cap per sale in shops? How long would it even take to process a big sale?

dxhound2005

It could be drug cartels laundering their money. I wouldn't be surprised if two of them got together and agreed one would do only odd number combinations, and the other one even numbers.