The Coming World War

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118220120#Comment_118220120

I suspect you're overstating the Suwalki gap problem. Kaliningrad has only one motor rifle division, with an additional tank regiment, enough to put forward some spoiling attacks but not much more if they plan on keeping most of Kaliningrad oblast under their control. It also presumes that Belarus is fine with the Russians launching an attack through their territory, a situation I'm not so sure applies. There have been recent differences of opinion between Lukoshenko and Putin, they're not as close as they used to be maybe a decade ago. Even if the gap was somehow closed, NATO forces are perfectly capable of punching through. There's a reason why the major force buildup is in Poland, south of the gap, and not in the Baltic states themselves. Yes, I know the gap is popular with analysts looking to make a splash, but it's not as if it's something which is catching NATO unawares.

AMKC

I see the USA were having war games in the South China Sea and just completed 10 days of military exercises with asian allies in that region to deter China from attacking Taiwan. Some here say they might not bother but they are not doing all them drills for nothing. I personally hope no big wars happen for at least 60 years then after that I am not as bothered. I am sure there will be changes and the odd spat but hopefully no WW3 or Nukes fired. That's the last thing the World needs right now or anytime really.

bob mcbob

Japan making their position clear on any threat to Taiwan (behind pw)

Japan would treat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as a crisis for its own security, the country’s former prime minister said in the latest indication that Tokyo would take part in any armed defence of the self-governed island.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taiwan-invasion-would-threaten-japan-shinzo-abe-tells-china-jvbgt3knc

Dubh Geannain

Since Taiwan doesn't have diplomatic ties with a lot of countries China has taken the opportunity to repatriate them and have done so in the hundreds. Probably a scary prospect for any Taiwanese abroad.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59486286

Hotblack Desiato

That's a very strange use of the word "repatriate".

Dubh Geannain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118255530#Comment_118255530

Haha, good spot. My sloppy use. I should have said what the article did which is "extradited". Which basically means the charges are arising from the Chinese side be they legitimate or otherwise so China is actively looking for these people to be sent to them for sentencing. That's an even scarier prospect than what I first implied.

Repatriating, which I used would have implied that they came to the attention of authorities in other jurisdictions and sent back to the native country which as far as Taiwanese are concerned while abroad is recognised as China for the most part but if China haven't been actively looking for them they've a better chance in this instance of getting sent to Taiwan.

Bass Reeves

OP

While Russia may seem to have a large conventional army it is technically way behind the US. The US has certain military advantages that take a large section of conventional armies out of the equation. While it struggles in conventional conflicts ( Afghanistan and Iran) where it needs feet on the ground in a war where technology was important it would be a very potent force.

While the Chinese and Russian Navy may seem potent the US has more aircraft carriers and nuclear submarine's than both of these put together. The US's ability to strike from distance would be a serious problem for either Country. It airforce is twice the size of both combined. In Europe the US would be backed by the UK, France and Italy if the chips were down as well as Turkey. In Asia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan would provide backup, as well as India and Australia.

If Trump was.in power Putin could do what he wants, China would be another issue. Biden is a different beast. The question is how far will he be willing to go. But if the US decided to go toe to toe It could nearly best them by themselves.

techman1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118212554#Comment_118212554

probably putin might be able to take ukraine but at a high cost , however the baltic countries are now EU members, surely France and Germany and UK would have to intervene then , the US would also be forced into intervention. The US could not sit out a war in Europe, this is not Afghanistan or Iraq.

I just cannot see it happening, way too high a risk for Putin, its not soviet times now and the russian people are not going to want to fight in a major war in Europe just to take back soviet era booty, With such high stakes nuclear weapons could be used , Putin is not that stupid

Hotblack Desiato

More to the point, they are NATO members.

Blazer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281242#Comment_118281242

Not only that but all 66 approx of the US's submarines can pop up outside Beking and fire off a few nuclear rockets. They are also all nuclear powered and thus more advanced than Russia's and China's diesel subs. Then you start to include Japan and other US allies and all those subs add up.

On the China side only 6 of their 76 subs can actually reach the US coast. So if it ever went nuclear China would be basically wiped off the map. So would a lot of other countries from the fallout so in reality its a no-win scenario and China are too clever to go nuclear regardless of how bad they want Taiwan.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118284631#Comment_118284631

The US can use those nuclear powered subs to deliver conventional explosive munitions as well. Those submarines could cripple the Chinese or Russian navy, similar with US aircraft carriers. They can stand off and use there aircraft to sink either navy.

Even when you go to tank warfare while the Russian army may have the larges number the quality is questionable. About 60%, are 1970's or earlier model tanks. It was only starting to bring it new modern tank ( the Armata) into the use last year. The best tank in the world is the German Leopard A2. Accross Europe there is about a couple thousand of them. Germany had 350+, Greece and Finland nearly 200 each, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Poland, The Netherlands, Croatia etc all have them. Turkey has as many as Greece.

France has 350 Leclerc's and the UK the same number of Chieftains. Both nearly as good as the Amata. The US tank the Abrams is ahead of the Amata and it is the only US tank and it has over 8k if them.

The only military advantage that China and Russia have no er the west is in manpower. But this can be equated to when the British used maxim machine guns in Africa against native peoples. It would be similar now with the AiR, Naval and conventional technologies that the West has compared to Russia or China

AMKC

That's good so no WW3 anytime soon so good.

AMKC

AbusesToilets

The larger danger from a potential conflict would be for unrestricted cyber attacks. There aren't the same conventions covering those as there are for regular means of warfare. You could have large facets of modern society severely damaged or destroyed at the speed of light, Banking records wiped out, electrical grids ruined, telecommunications knocked out. Potentially with much graver long term impacts than bombs being dropped.

RandomViewer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118211361#Comment_118211361

Dry Sundays, wee bit of rain and it's Dampstart and a rag

AMKC

I see more sabre rattling by Russia recently. It has two Nuclear bombers pertoling the skies of Belarus and they were using drones to shot down other drones over Crimea but yet Putin claimes he has no interest in invading Ukraine but then why have all them Russian troops on the border. I think he thinks Biden is a week president and this might have been easier but he is wrong. Still it could be worse. You can't help but wonder what Trump would have said and done if this had of happened under him and would Putin would have assured Trump nothing was going on but then invade quickly anyway or not.

WW3 isn't on just yet. The OP is in dreamland if thinking the 60's and presumably Cuban missile crisis was the closest the world ever got to Nuclear war. It was then as it is now, posturing. As in the Lemony Snickets title, it'll be a "series of unfortunate events" that brings Armageddon rather than expansionist aims towards the independent states of Ukraine or Taiwan. What's occurring in the world today is similar to what went on during other periods of history, taking advantage of situations. A tank is also something other than a tank, it's a target. It's a mistake to attribute menace to one side only.

Sam Russell

I think you are underestimating the Cuba crisis. It was a very serious threat, and JFK and his brother were deadly serious in stopping missiles getting into Cuba. Apparently, Robert Kennedy, AG, grabbed the Russian Ambassador to the USA by the tie and pulled him towards himself and said 'If you think we are not serious, you are much mistaken' (or words to that effect - which the Ambassador was in no doubt that he was in earnest). What the Kennedy brothers did not know at the time was the missiles were already there.

Berlin was another flash point, but not quite as serious.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checkpoint_Charlie

There have been quite a few standoffs. Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc.

techman1

I can't understand what Putin would get from invading, it would be a bloody war even if the west did not intervene. Then afterwards Russia would be a real pariah state, then there would be a huge build up of troops and hardware by NATO in eastern Europe, the very thing that Putin is trying to stop.

Putin is a very clever man , this is just a bargaining chip to get Europe to pull back from Ukraine, to get long term commitments on gas purchases from Russia which Europe badly needs and a relaxation of sanctions.

He is playing the trump game by moving the argument into his area by ratcheting up the pressure and then bargaining back from that extreme position rather than the original position before the troop build up

But because of his actions in Syria and Crimea he has to be taken seriously , he is not just talk but also action, Biden by comparison is a very weak president he is now reeping the whirlwind from the ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan

Sam Russell

What is a world war?

There currently is a state of war in many parts of the world, and as good as war in others.

Afghanistan is still effectively at war even though USA and allies have withdrawn. Syria has had a civil war for over a decade. Iraq is the same. Israel is also involved in a civil war (of sorts). Libya, Ethiopia, Somalia, DRC, Nigeria, Southern Sudan are all involved in war. China is involved in Tibet, HK, plus some internal provinces, and is threatening Taiwan. Russia is threatening Ukraine, and stability in Eastern Europe. Belarus is in turmoil due to corrupt elections. Myanmar and Thailand are both military regimes, involved in combatting insurrections. South and Central America has many despotic governments, which is close to civil war. Those are just the ones I can think of from the top of my head.

How many more need to start wars before it is called a world war?

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118361150#Comment_118361150

Putin has always been clear about his motivations:

1. Preventing any more of the "near abroad" countries joining NATO
2. Restoring the respect on the world stage that Russia lost when the Soviet Union collapsed

At the root of #1 is the fear of being surrounded by enemies and ultimately being invaded. In a world of hypersonic missiles and cyber attacks that might seem like an anachronistic fear but all you need to do is look at Russia's history to see why this is so lodged in their psyche. In the past 210 years alone Napoleon, The Ottomans and the Nazis have all invaded Russia. Ukraine is a large flat country that acts as a buffer zone between Russia and a whole host of NATO countries. it's also commonly seen as the cradle of the Russian people themselves (Kievan Rus').

So, control of Ukraine or to put it another way, not letting control of Ukraine pass into "enemy" hands is a major prize in and of itself for Russia. That is what Putin would get. Control of Ukraine now and for the long-term. It would be similar to how China invaded Tibet in the 1950s both to secure their water supply and to prevent a future where India might invade Tibet first.

So what's the cost? "Russia would be a real pariah state". There are a few ways of looking at that statement. Firstly, to whom would it be a pariah state? China certainly wouldn't care and they're the latest target market for Russian natural resources. What's Europe going to do? Stop importing Russian gas? That would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. Many European countries are building LNG terminals to import from other countries and ramping up renewables but those are only sticking plasters - they need Russian gas supplies and Russia knows it. No doubt the Americans would pile on more sanctions but can they really hurt Putin?

The real victims of more sanctions are likely to be the ordinary Russian people. So what? They don't live in a real democracy. The media is dominated by pro-Kremlin outlets. No serious political opposition is tolerated. Protests are either banned or broken up violently by the police. For a lot of older Russians the memories of the chaos and humiliations of the 1990s haunt them and they are eternally loyal to Putin for bringing about stability. The only real fear for Putin would be that some of the wealthy elite might be shut out of sending their wealth abroad to the western countries of their choice (U.K., Cyprus, USA etc). No doubt they'll be able to find other locations for their loot and to send their children to be educated in instead.

I poo-poo'd the original post in this thread which envisaged a Russian attack on actual NATO countries. Ukraine....that's a different matter entirely. If it's going to happen it'll be early next year when the ground freezes.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360254#Comment_118360254

Indeed, including the 1995 Norwegian Rocket Incident, where the Russian nuclear briefcase was activated and submarines at sea ordered to prepare for a launch. This in peace time, with advance notice of the launch having been given to Russia days before. The notice simply didn't reach the nuclear radar operators. Imagine how frayed the nerves would be in a conventional war with incoming missiles on the screen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_rocket_incident

Hotblack Desiato

This has got nothing to do with Afghanistan, US was winding down there for years, Trump set a withdrawal date but not a withdrawal plan. If he'd won the election the endgame would have been, if anything, more chaotic.

techman1

The real victims of more sanctions are likely to be the ordinary Russian people. So what? They don't live in a real democracy. The media is dominated by pro-Kremlin outlets. No serious political opposition is tolerated. Protests are either banned or broken up violently by the police. For a lot of older Russians the memories of the chaos and humiliations of the 1990s haunt them and they are eternally loyal to Putin for bringing about stability. 

But thats the real risk for Putin that he returns Russia to its 1990s type economy, this is a big risk actually, Putin isn't a Stalin and doesn't have that power. If Putin really thinks that Russia's future lies with China and alienating completely the West well why is he so focussed on Ukraine a quasi European state anyway. Deep down Putin and much of Russia has a European centric viewpoint not an Asian one. He wants the US out of Europe and a return to Russian influence within Europe as a major player. He spent his early career in East Germany and speaks fluent german, he had a very good relationship with Angela Merkel. He obviously liked Trump due to his anti Nato stance. That is Putins real goal , he sees a very weak Joe Biden now after Afghanistan and he has decided to up the tempo and basically flex his muscles now.

A war in Ukraine would essentially be a European war , that is just too big even for Putin ,

Hotblack Desiato

That "weak Biden" trope again... can you justify this?

techman1

Putin today at a news conference said he is not going to invade Ukraine and does not want conflict but wants assurances from the US and Europe with regard to Nato expansionism . He has obviously realised that this was getting too dangerous and has decided to dial it back down a bit.

His focus is on the US and Nato, US missiles in Eastern Europe is a big concern of his. Hopefully Biden does not mess up this time

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118366262#Comment_118366262

What has Biden got to mess up. Putin acted tough and now has realised that Europe and the US will not tolerate an invasion of the the Ukraine. Biden is adopting the Teddy Roosevelt's strategy, '' walk softly and carry a big stick''.

We have had posters on here about the size of the Russian tank army, not realising it is mostly Cold War equipment 50 years out of date, as is there navy and airforce.

Now that he has sh!t in his pants after it was put up to him......we have the weak Biden line.

Strumms

Biden has the public image of the amiable old almost octogenarian, smiling, touchy feely sort of democrat fella, but if he gets or the US gets threatened or it’s allies I’d say he’d act smartly and decisively…

the US has too many allies, too strong nuclear capabilities itself. Russia and putin can posture all they like..

Eduard Khil

There will be a war but it will most certainly not be military it will be a trade war to destabilise western governments no one can afford an all out fight currently with the ledgers closed to view right now when they are open and the true cost of this pandemic is counted it will be Armageddon.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118368293#Comment_118368293

He been around a long time. Not the greatest public speaker or quickest add liber. Totally different character to the Donald. However I expect that he the sort of operator that listens to advisors and then reacts and knows how to make the moves.

They said he was really annoyed with Obama over the first Ukraine crisis in 2013/14. He felt that the US and Europe left the Ukraine down after giving them guarantees when they gave up there nuclear arsenal.