The Omicron variant

Snooker Loopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317729#Comment_118317729

South Africa's hospitalisation stats, and especially when you compare it against the hospitalisation stats as their previous waves emerged, are by no means encouraging. They are rising much quicker than in the other waves.

Figures as they stand today:

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-Report-National-20211213.pdf

Overview of how hospitalisations rose as their Delta wave emerged:

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-report-National-20210801.pdf

Overview of how hospitalisations rose during their December 2020-January 2021 wave:

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-report-National-20210401.pdf

Overview of how hospitalisations rose in the June/July 2020 wave:

https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-report-Private-20200901.pdf

Deeper Blue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317899#Comment_118317899

Except it's been stated that many weren't admitted for covid reasons

Scuid Mhór

So is the pandy over then?

Fiyatoe

Let’s all clap for graphs

#PintsForThePandy

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317401#Comment_118317401

We have had one of the most successful vaccine rollouts in the world.

Ease off on the self pity.

padjocollins

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/how-omicron-appears-to-be-infecting-britain-despite-the-vaccine might have been posted already, yewsterdays news too ...

deholleboom

The real test and important figures (UK): people in hospital and the ones on ventilators which usually means ICU.

People in hospital and on ventilators: flat or slightly down since 18 november ( in Ireland the numbers are down 😊). It means that despite rising cases the expected effect of higher numbers in hospital is not occurring, even under Delta looking at the weeks after 18 november in which Omicron was not prevalent. Everybody seems to expect higher hospital numbers in the coming weeks with Omicron. IF it is milder those hospital numbers will likely remain stable or even go down in the coming weeks before going up in January with higher positive cases. IF it is more like Delta the numbers should shoot up quite high. Omicron is already replacing Delta (and is now 40%?). Maybe some very smart person can tell me where i am going wrong with this..(hint: maybe the rapid rise of Omicron outpacing its mildness🤔)

In any case, we will know just before Christmas. May it be a happy one 🤗

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-variants-identified-in-the-uk

In the document (dec 13) it is stated:

"The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) can confirm that 10 people have been hospitalised with the Omicron variant in England; the individuals were diagnosed ON OR BEFORE ADMISSION.One individual diagnosed in hospital has sadly died."

So, they are not telling us who came into hospital due to Covid symptoms, the severity, the duration and who was diagnosed after entering hospital non related to Covid symptoms (10 people!). The header ("have been hospitalised") is misleading unless all 10 were admitted with Omicron symptoms, otherwise the 10 number is meaningless and is just the number in hospital with Omicron. "Hospitalised" hints at a causation. I believe the same thing is happening in Denmark.

One person died. Too short a time period for Omicron to be a factor. That person died with Omicron. Was he/she on a ventilator? Age? Ilnesses? Would that person have died anyway? Terminal? We don't know. It is what it is, just a headline..

The devil is in the details.

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118316682#Comment_118316682

Depends on the amount of initial seeding. At x8 per week, 1 case becomes 500 cases in 3 weeks.

If Ireland is at 500 cases/day of Omicron, it's likely to have been here less than 3 weeks, although maybe the spread is slower here due to Careful Now...

Wouldn't be surprised if our positivity rate hits 20% (for the first time?) in about a week.

Crappy timing for Christmas, but fingers crossed we'll all be eating deep fried damp squid.

MilkyToast

Even if Omicron is mild (and it looks like it is 🤞) Delta is still the dominant variant here and there's no reason someone couldn't be infected by both simultaneously. So maybe in a month or so everyone can (hopefully) chill out, but in the mean time people who are elderly or vulnerable (and those in contact with them) still need to be careful.

deholleboom

stephenjmcd

You really have to take anything an English politician says with a truck load of salt.

Dominic Raab on sky, 250 people in hospital with Omicron.

Dominic Raab 30 minutes later on the BBC - 9 people in hospital with Omicron.

TefalBrain

deholleboom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318298#Comment_118318298

I have to correct you here. You cannot have two variants in a person with different cell attack rates without a winner and a loser (anomalies aside). You can already see that in the rise of Omicron, replacing Delta. It does NOT add up unlike some of the headlines suggest. The two variants may live side by side in the community for a while until one outpaces the other. Delta goes down, Omicron up. It is a matter of scale.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318291#Comment_118318291

One individual diagnosed in hospital has sadly died

This implies he was in hospital for something else and then tested positive - suggests (not confirms) he died with omicron not from.

Rebelbrowser

Contradicting almost everything I've posted in the last few days (it's that kinda pandemic) I now think Omicron is actually about to go exponential in the UK and just run riot there, and short after here, in the next few weeks. Hopefully it's very mild in which case this could be a good thing long term. It may be so transmissible too that things like lockdowns and even PCR testing become pointless - hospitals just deal as best they can with whoever turns up.

Am I getting this wrong? That's my read this morning anyway..... currently have Delta myself. Will be a bit pissed off if I get Omicron within weeks. Thought there was an upside to getting delta....

MilkyToast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318416#Comment_118318416

Thanks for the correction. Saw a doc say it on something the other day... telly or a podcast I can't remember. Glad to hear it's not the case.

I suppose he might have been talking about the possibility of catching Omicron just after the viral load has died down from Delta? He didn't say that, but... to give him fair dues lol.

Probes

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317899#Comment_118317899

The rate of hospitalisations should largely increase with the rate of transmission regardless of severity, so it’s not unexpected. What we need to understand is the ratio of hospitalisations to cases.

PicardWithHair

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118317566#Comment_118317566

Indeed.

I don't think people realise how much people want this to be deadly and us back to March 2020 ...

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318505#Comment_118318505

Looks that way, pretty serious **** is about to hit the fan everywhere. Hopefully the boosters do the trick and it is not as harmful as it could be.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1470634875799568385

TonyMaloney

Report from SA on pfizer performance

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1470684351151157252?s=20

323

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318492#Comment_118318492

Exactly. Another death being twisted to feed the narrative required to keep the emergency in place. Without the emergency reason for the Conditional Marketing Authorisation dissapears and the jabs would have to be withdrawn.

PicardWithHair

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318625#Comment_118318625

300k cases a day !!! haha in a country with 5M people.

Ah yeah Eric Topol, another "100M deaths from covid" predictor ...

seamus

There's a bit of a hospitalisation paradox with Omicron; assuming it has a lower hospitalisation rate but a higher vaccine escape rate than Delta. In a largely unvaccinated country like ZA, an Omicron surge will see hospital numbers grow, but at a slower rate than a comparable Delta surge. Which is a big relief to such a country.

In a highly vaccinated country - like Denmark or Ireland - then an Omicron surge may see hospital numbers increase despite in general a milder illness, because the vaccine escape is higher. Which is a cause for concern for such countries.

However, if it is a milder illness, then the translation of those cases to ICU and deaths will be lower, which should mean no need for panic. We, for example, typically cite 2,000 patients in hospital as being our "limit" but that's only when you consider a 10:1 ratio for patients going to ICU. If Omicron has a 20:1 ratio then we can handle 4,000 covid patients in hospital. And we have the bed capacity for that afaik.

Since we know that the booster jab is highly effective here, then it once more tells us that boosters are the only game in town. Forget restrictions and crowd capacity limits, get boosters in arms.

PicardWithHair

A: Look at all this data from South Africa !! it looks good, and it's 3 weeks old and 1000s in sample size ...

B: NO no no no the data is not enough , it's too soon and the sample sizes are too small ... we can't get ANYTHING from this data ...

B: Look at this !!, in Denmark we have 1 day old data with a sample size of *TEN* but it looks more SEVERE!!!

OH MY GOD, it's a DISASTER !! We must take these findings as fact though and use it to spread more FEAR!!!

Jimi H

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318505#Comment_118318505

If it’s mild and hopefully it is, we might be able to get back to some level of normality. Maybe in Spring? If there’s high levels of infection among healthcare workers and they are absent from work, I wonder how that would play out in a couple of months. We know NPHET are conservative and their emphasis would be to protect the health service but government would be under enormous pressure to open up (if it turns out to be mild).

Of course though, the elephant in the room with 1000's in hospital with covid and ICU choked is what do we do for ICU and beds if a bus hits a truck on the M50 and the two of them glide into few houses ?

Thats possible but it's really the metaphorical equivalent of ignoring the wipe out of needed care for normal potentially life threatening conditions like cancer and dozens of others

Irish times reporting more restrictions coming. I wonder how long before they cancel non-essential travel. Suppose, will slow spread of omicron.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318814#Comment_118318814

Wrong thread, but the article says NPHET expected to recommend more restrictions. Nothing definitive about that yet, hopefully MM actually grows a pair of balls and stands up this time

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318905#Comment_118318905

It's related to stopping spread of the omicron variant.

dominatinMC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118318914#Comment_118318914

You can't stop it though.

And if the data from SA is to be believed, why is there so much concern around this head cold.