The Omicron variant

4Ad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386415#Comment_118386415

Just tested positive, fir the first time, feels like a head cold with a few aches and pains.

Picked it up St Stephens night in the local pub..

Luckily I have had very few contacts.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118385740#Comment_118385740

Here is the relevant parts of the article ( copy & paste )

Just one fifth of the weekly rise in Covid inpatients was caused by people admitted to hospital because of the virus, figures suggest. 

The most up-to-date NHS data show that on December 21, there were 6,245 beds occupied by coronavirus patients in English hospitals - an increase of 259 from the previous week. 

But within that increase, just 45 patients were admitted because of the virus, with the remaining 214 in hospital for other conditions but having also tested positive - so called “incidental Covid” admissions.

Critics of the data say it is wrong to include incidental figures in the daily updates of admissions and patient totals, as they can include someone with a broken leg who has just also tested positive on admission, but may be completely asymptomatic. 

'Not the same disease we were seeing a year ago'

The growing prevalence of omicron in the community also means that there are far more people likely to test positive on entering hospital, compared to during previous waves. 

Overall, nearly 30 per cent of people currently in hospital with Covid are “incidental” cases - 1,813 out of 6,245 - the highest it has been since the NHS started releasing the figures in the summer.

The number of incidental Covid cases has been rising in recent weeks because omicron is far more infectious than delta, meaning that many people will be entering hospital unknowingly infected.

In the previous week, December 7 to December 14 - when the vast majority of hospitalisations were still delta - some 59 per cent of the 289 weekly rise was primarily Covid.

brickster69

This is the graph from the article from article - Source NHS situation report

It does not show the numbers or wording for some reason when saving it but highest point is 100% and lowest is just under 20%

Dates go from Oct 12th - Dec 21st

Proportion of increase in Covid inpatients being driven by true Covid cases

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386467#Comment_118386467

Why skewed? In Ireland we had an average of 8 deaths a day last week and 7 the week before. Meanwhile countries testing ffar less than us and producing far less cases have death rates multiple times ours. That's the skewering you should focus on, our high figures pointing to us being in an Omicron hotspot whereas the reverse is true and we're amongst the very lowest death rates in Europe.

Focus on the hospitalisations, ICU patients and deaths. Ireland is doing relatively well and that will continue.

RavenBea17b

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386583#Comment_118386583

Serious question - how are we counting a Covid death - some are it's on the death cert, some if the person had a postivie test within so many days - UK it is 28 days. Others its a hospital death. Is it it just me or is it a bit confusing.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386615#Comment_118386615

Ours are confirmed deaths and probable deaths, as per ECDC guidelines.

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386615#Comment_118386615

Coroners and medical professionals.

RavenBea17b

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386629#Comment_118386629

Ah, so this is the definition from the ECDC website :

Mortality monitoring should be conducted according to the WHO definition:

A COVID-19 death is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g., trauma). There should be no period of complete recovery between the illness and death.

A death due to COVID-19 may not be attributed to another disease (e.g. cancer) and should be counted independently of pre-existing conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19.

 Number of deaths due to COVID-19 should be reported to TESSy on weekly base (case-based or aggregated data).

It is hospital admissions now we need to watch, along with key workers due isolation rules, shortage of staff in roles.

brickster69

Hospital situation in the UK from the CEO of NHS Providers

https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1475540046677790723

Stevek101

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386413#Comment_118386413

What are the German restrictions?

corkie

I am going to stop posting daily confirmed UK cases, follow the twitter account if you want them.

The prevalence % is so high that confirmed cases are meaningless

Numbers are screwed up because of Xmas/BH in this below report.

https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1476209651440095234

https://twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1476236685100953605

No ECDC report yet.

Steve012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386539#Comment_118386539

I had it over Xmas, bad headache, semi mild aches n pains, no sore throat, to chest infection, tickly cough though. Only lasted 3 days.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118376897#Comment_118376897

Not only Delta - SA population is largely seropositive for Wuhan, Beta AND Delta. No other country is similar in this respect.

The real problem with SA is the 20% HIV positive population that will keep breeding new variants and it's looking increasingly likely new strains (Sars-Cov-X). Omicron is half way towards Sars-Cov-3.

Pretty spectacular that a country of just 60M generated already two dominant Covid VOCs within 24 months. Not a confidence, of course.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386578#Comment_118386578

Wasn't that graph taken from a sample of just a few hundred cases? If it was really true that only 20% of UK Covid hospital patients had been admitted with Covid-19, the entire media would be all over the story.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118387388#Comment_118387388

Worse that they're rejecting so many vaccines (AZ at the start and others recently due to lack of administrative capacity).

BobbyMalone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118387388#Comment_118387388

Is there a link between being HIV positive and breeding new variants or am I reading you wrong?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118387700#Comment_118387700

In immune suppressed people the virus can live much longer and change more.

One third of South Africa is hiv positive.

It's a big Petri dish, add in that getting people to take the vaccine in South Africa and across Africa as a whole is meeting a complete wall of disinterest, regardless of vaccine availability

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386413#Comment_118386413

They banned everyone entering France from UK entering France

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386959#Comment_118386959

They need a serious increase in restrictions over there now, not after new year's. They've been an absolute shambles from the very start.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388005#Comment_118388005

Run it's course again? God almighty it's been declared dead more times than it's been alive.

Looking back. It's been declared dead at every point by the people who want to pretend it was never a big issue. But of all times to declare it to have run it's course, this is one of the absolute worst times. It hasn't even peaked in this wave yet. Wouldn't you wait a few weeks until its clear that it's peaked before you declare it dead again?

Zebra3

It was only ever a big issue to a minority of the population. Now would be a perfect time to let it flow with a weak variant around.

It’s what Mother Nature wants.

El_Duderino 09

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388249#Comment_118388249

I suppose that's what you tell people with cancer. Or what you'd say if you get high blood pressure "no thanks, no medication for me, doctor. Mother nature, and all that". Guff.

Seriously. I know loads of people don't care what argument they use to reach the conclusion that we just need to drop restrictions and "let it flow". But now, before it had peaked, is an absolutely daft time to suggest it.

corkie

Most omicron hospitalizations incidental

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM2VgBm9pTI

Seathrun66

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118386531#Comment_118386531

Update. Ireland has had 22 deaths in the past week, an average of 3 a day.

Poland, with 794 deaths today had 265 times more deaths than Ireland or a per capita rate of 35.5 times our mortalities.

Slovakia with 68 deaths has a per capita death rate of 23 times that of Ireland.

This variant is so infectious, my wifes friend (unboosted) picked it up out christmas shopping.

Wife went for drinks at her house night before she developed symptoms.

Her friend tested positive next day with antigen at home and antigen at pharmacy.

Wife has tested negative with pcr today.

We restricted movements and had to skip christmas lunch with her ones.

Now they all have it (8 in house all +).

We dodged a few bullets this christmas, but its only a matter of time.

Long runs the fox.

2ndcoming

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388634#Comment_118388634

It's that easy to catch she tripped, fell, landed on something else

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388634#Comment_118388634

This variant is so infectious, my wifes friend (unboosted) picked it up out christmas shopping.

It seems to be incredibly variable. Has been pretty much from the start too. Some people get it even if they follow all the precautions to the point of paranoia, others don't with caution thrown to the wind. I've heard and actually know of a load of households where some got it and others didn't even though living on top of each other, even people sharing a bed. That was the case with Alpha, Delta and now with Omicron, even though it's far more infectious. Then we have those who contract it but are asymptomatic. With previous strains anyway it was something like a third of positives fitted into this category.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388613#Comment_118388613

Very good case study for what vaccination but also some mild restrictions do the Covid death rate.

Slovakia has just 50% fully vaccinated or so, Poland about 60%. Czechia has about 71%,do you have mortality data for CZ?

If we see a correlation between th death rates SK<PL<CZ then it's pretty clear...

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118388634#Comment_118388634

I was criticised here for saying that Omicron R0 is approaching the measles.

It's a know fact in medical and scientific circles, obviously. A doctor said the same on Newstalk radio today.

Incredibly transmissible. If you're in the same room with any infected person you'll catch it...

Frank Bullitt

While omicron is crazy infectious, it does seem to be only infectious for a small period of time.

Has there been any data on this yet?