The Omicron variant

leck · 30-12-2021 10:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393515#Comment_118393515

How do you know that?

Marty Bird · 30-12-2021 10:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393542#Comment_118393542

Know what ?

Pauliedragon · 30-12-2021 11:00pm

Have a friend who wont get vaxed. I respect his decision but it's a pain in the hole cause we are limited to the only pub that doesn't check certs for a pint and I'm bored of it. I want pints in other pubs for a change of scenery.

El_Duderino 09 · 30-12-2021 11:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392882#Comment_118392882

Of course I speculated. Not sure why you're getting upset about someone speculating.

Top tip: when someone starts a sentence with the term "imagine if" then they're posing a hypothetical. It's probably nothing to get upset about.

30-12-2021 11:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392976#Comment_118392976

He’s raising a potential issue with variants, which seem to mutate quite a lot. There’s a potential that variants are worse in the future, if it’s less likely. The delta variant was deadlier than the original and more transmittable.

2018na · 30-12-2021 11:04pm

I have tested positive. No vaccine. Fairly nasty dose of a fever. Had a rough enough first night with it. Improved today but I have got a sore throat. The reason I didn’t get the vaccine was the requirement for my pps number. It has not stopped treble vaccinated people getting it anyway. This varient is a different level of contagious altogether

El_Duderino 09 · 30-12-2021 11:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118392976#Comment_118392976

Unacceptable to speculate that the next variant might not be much milder then Omicron? Are you joking or being serious? It's hard to tell.

Is speculating that the next variant might be much more mild than Omicron also Unacceptable? I would have thought speculation is fine as long as its phrased as speculation. It's a pretty normal thing to imagine more than the most ideal scenario.

El_Duderino 09 · 30-12-2021 11:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393033#Comment_118393033

No you're not. The people who tell you they have Omicron are almost certainly talking out of their hat.

Seathrun66 · 30-12-2021 11:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118391770#Comment_118391770

😂😂 You go first. I'm still in happy holiday mode.

30-12-2021 11:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393282#Comment_118393282

I would quibble there because you said the original variant was between 2 + 3, then added 50% to get 5. You chose the max and rounded up the result and that affected subsequent multiplications.

if you started with 2 you would get:

2 + 50% = 3 for alpha

3 + 50% = 4.5 for delta

twice that = 9 for omicron as a R0.

(I know people don’t really use fractions for R values bit with multiple multiplications we probably should).

Wibbs · 30-12-2021 11:32pm

I only know two anti vaccination people. One is married to someone who has been vaccinated. The family got this pox a couple of weeks ago. They're all fine. The kids flew through it which is not too much of a shock, though one had worse symptoms, but still pretty mild. The main difference I noticed was the un vaccinated person had the same symptoms, but they were worse and lasted about double the time of the vaccinated person and are still lingering. The other non vaccinated person I know was in a kinda similar position and again their symptoms were worse and they lasted longer. These are people in their forties(other than the kids 😁). No underlying conditions, not overweight, pretty fit etc. Absolutely tiny fecking sample of course so all bets are off. EG the two people I know with the worst symptoms, but still "mild" in that they didn't need to get a doctor are both fully vaccinated and boosted in the last few weeks.

TL;DR? The science is pretty bloody clear; If you're under 60 your risk is low, but you could be one of the unlucky buggers and you don't know your genetic predisposition and you could well have underlying conditions(being fat is one of them BTW). Vaccines reduce the risks of serious illness and death and by quite a large margin across the board and reduce the frequency of symptoms even in mild cases. Get a vaccine.

PropJoe10 · 30-12-2021 11:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393515#Comment_118393515

No respect for those around you then, no?

Annasopra · 30-12-2021 11:37pm

Is there research that unvaxed people also more likely to get long covid

deholleboom · 30-12-2021 11:39pm

I have a hard time trying to find a simple non stratified number of patients in hospital, those with Covid or otherwise. The HSE data hub only mentions those with confirmed Covid. The official UK data does show it. I just want to see a total of hospital inpatients and compare it to other years. Any idea where to find that?

The irony is that there are so many reports of hospitals on the brink of collapse every winter PRE Covid, the trolley problem, over crowding etc, same as this year which is likely worse due to Covid but how much worse is my question. Adding extra Covid pressure on top normal winter pressure is of course a bad thing but if i could just make a calculation of the amount of money spent on Covid due to restrictions it is probably fair to say we couldve at least doubled the existing hospital capacity, paid staff a higher wage, fixed the yearly trolley problem, built specialised Covid clinics and more local facilities.

Restrictions have now become a default policy when hospitals seem to run into problems, a really bad thing i think.

The most recent Omicron developments are quite close to the ones i predicted in previous posts several weeks ago btw, you know, when everybody said we didnt have sufficient data yet. It is still the official line it seems with some glimpses of hope thrown in for good measure. I still think we are likely to end up with just under half the Delta numbers in hospital. That i think is the best scenario the official projections were putting out at the time some weeks ago. Personally i think it is closer to the max number we might see and could be less. Have any of the official projections changed lately? They should have..

leck · 30-12-2021 11:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393562#Comment_118393562

That "his/her body respect[s] their decision"

Wibbs · 30-12-2021 11:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393806#Comment_118393806

I haven't personally seen any proper research into long covid and vaccination and this pox is so bloody variable, but I would imagine given that they are more likely to get a symptomatic infection, it lasting longer and in the vulnerable groups more likely to get serious illness and even die, the long covid thing is more likely?

Wibbs · 30-12-2021 11:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393803#Comment_118393803

The current vaccines are so leaky and fall off in efficacy against transmission and breakthrough illness in a pretty short time, the "other people" thing is unlikely to hold much water, particularly among the anti vaccination crowd, who would not give a fig even if they were more effective and long lasting. At this stage at least IMHO it's better to go for the self preservation angle, because the vaccines most certainly do massively reduce the chances of severe illness and death.

Sweetemotion · 30-12-2021 11:52pm

Marty Bird · 30-12-2021 11:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393803#Comment_118393803

Those people are protected by the wonderful vaccines.

31-12-2021 12:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393515#Comment_118393515

I respect their decision as its their body as much as I respect the decision of someone to play their music on their phone as loudly as they like on a bus, i.e. put some headphones on (get a vaccine) and start thinking about those around you for once.

Markus Antonius · 31-12-2021 12:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118393787#Comment_118393787

Unless you are in a public-facing job, interact with lots of people or travel a lot, (or are in a house with any of these) your chances of contracting the virus are low. We've been through 2 years of covid, 4+ waves and yet only 15% of the country's population are confirmed covid positive. We can only assume the undetected cases are mild/asymptomatic as they would have presented themselves to a hospital to have thier case confirmed.

Therefore I choose to not get the vaccine nor the virus.