December 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Joe Public · 10-12-2021 11:34am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118293611#Comment_118293611

OK for Iceland ❄️

Jpmarn · 12-12-2021 10:06am

MAX 14.4 recorded at Moorepark 11th.

Joe Public · 14-12-2021 12:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308274#Comment_118308274

14.4 is a nice number

pauldry · 14-12-2021 2:15pm

Max prob 14c now

Rainfall very little till New Year as weather goes dead.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2021 7:05pm

After two weeks ...

IMT on 5.8 C, the past week averaged 6.2 which is 0.5 above normal. For both the month and the past week, Shannon has been running notably higher than the rest, the two-week mean there is 7.0, the average for the other four was 5.4 C.

MAX 14.4 and MIN -2.1 (14th at Mullingar)

PRC 105% of normal, this past week rather dry at 67% of normal. With quite a dry forecast it has to be added that we have only guaranteed an outcome of around 50% with that 105% in the first two weeks. If the rest of the month managed as little as 25% then the outcome would be 60%.

SUN is now at 115% with this past week very close to normal (99% from 595/600).

Current GFS prediction for 25th is for a cool and overcast pattern with temperatures rather steady around 5 C with no strong indications for snow anywhere on 24th or 25th. The GEM on the other hand was colder with east winds offering some hope of local snowfalls. The 12z ECM had not reached the 25th by the time I posted this, may edit in something from that later.

M.T. Cranium · 22-12-2021 4:14pm

After three weeks ...

IMT now 6.0, the third week average was 6.3 which is 0.8 above normal. Guidance has been all over the place recently but some suggestions of a very mild end to the month, this could end up a bit higher possibly.

MAX 14.4, MIN -2.1. Neither of these are settled yet.

PRC at 73 per cent of normal after a dry week (only 8% on average); however, today will anchor what looks to be a more normal sort of week so that the outcome for the month may be closer to normal than this report.

SUN at about 113 per cent of normal, with this past week 110.5 per cent (663/600) despite Cork being fully overcast. This average could slump a bit given the forecasts of mostly cloudy skies ahead.

The current numerical output for Dublin on the 25th from GFS 06z show the max and min to be 8 and 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2021 9:05am

Good morning, hope you had an enjoyable Christmas. Dublin had a narrow range of temperatures, 6.3 to 8.9, and of course the other part of the forecast was NO. Will post the scoring for the bonus in a few minutes, looks like the closest forecasts were MrSkinner and Bsal at 9.0 for the max, and Kindred Spirit was closest on the minimum at 4.0; nobody in the field quite foresaw such a narrow range of temperature, two had 2.9 and 3.1 between their high and their low (that being MTC and waterways) but we were looking for highs closer to the actual low. Will post the full scoring in a few minutes.

M.T. Cranium · 26-12-2021 10:25am

Here's a summary of the BONUS scoring then ... all add three points as shown, except those names with an asterisk who predicted YES for the snow portion. They remain at the points level. The groups at different points levels are separated in part by error differentials which were very similar in the larger groups near the top.

Scoring is based on your total error for max and min added together. That is what the numbers in brackets denote, max error then min error. Everyone in the field was at least somewhat below the actual average of 7.6, all were below the minimum and most were below the maximum.

10 pts (to 13) __ Bsal (0.1, 2.8) MrSkinner (0.1, 3.3) Pauldry (1.5, 2.5) MrStonewall (0.2, 4.0) Normal (0.4, 3.8)

9 pts (to 12) __ waterways (1.9, 2.4) Tae laidir (1.6, 2.8) Kindred Spirit (2.1, 2.3) JPmarn (0.6, 3.8)

8 pts (to 11) __ Joe Public (1.1, 3.8) 200motels (0.7, 4.2) Adam240610 (0.9, 4.3) John mac (2.3, 3.1) Con Sensus (1.1, 4.3)

7 pts (to 10) __ M.T. Cranium* (2.7, 3.0), Appledrop (0.9, 5.3), sunflower3 (0.7, 5.8)

6 pts (to 9) ___ Gonzo (2.5, 4.8), Artane2002 (1.6, 5.8)

5 pts (to 8) ___ DOCARCH (1.8, 7.1)

4 pts (to 7) ___ Mickey Mantle* (3.8, 7.5) sryanbruen (5.1, 7.0)

3 pts (to 6) ___ Esposito (3.5, 10.1) Dasa29 (3.9, 10.3)

2 pts (to 5) ___ Bazler*(6.4, 9.8) dacogawa* (5.8, 10.7)

1 pt (to 4 ) ___ BLIZZARD7* (8.2, 11.6) Danno* (7.5, 13.0)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Now, it would appear that MIN is unlikely to drop much as tonight will apparently be the last chance for a frost, the MIN is already -2.1 and I can't see it going much lower than that. If we need minimum progression for MIN scoring, then the top scores would go to Bsal (-4.0) and DOCARCH (-4.3) with MrSkinner at -5.0. Unless the MIN drops to -3.8 we will need minimum progression anyway; the only thing that could change would be an outcome of -3.8 to -4.5 which would trigger the reduced version with some raw score at or above 18/20. Anything lower than -4.5 would probably negate the need for it.

MAX could actually go up from 14.4 and the IMT is likely to drift up a bit too, most likely finish 6.5. That would necessitate a minor boost, so the scoring will be from 6.3 if the outcome is 6.3 or higher.

There were heavy rainfalls at several of our grid locations yesterday; that may push PRC up close to normal or even a bit above, with the other amounts that we already know plus what appears likely in the next few days. Johnstown had 58.9 mm and Oak Park 36.6 mm.

appledrop · 26-12-2021 11:27pm

Thanks for the update M.T, Merry Christmas!

M.T. Cranium · 29-12-2021 1:55pm

After four weeks ...

IMT on 6.4 C, fourth week average was 7.7 which is 2.4 above normal.

MAX 14.4 and MIN -2.1

PRC is now right on normal (100%) with the fourth week rather wet at 181%.

SUN 105% and the fourth week a bit cloudier at 81% (486/600).

BONUS was scored in a previous post.

MIN will require the use of minimum progression to generate scores.

MAX could gain at least slightly and IMT likely to rise to around 6.7 but will be scored from 6.3 whatever it gets up to, meanwhile PRC likely to edge closer to 105-110%. SUN could maintain a slight edge on normal as any small amounts today and Friday would cancel out what's likely to be an overcast day tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 30-12-2021 12:02pm

MAX has edged up to 14.5 (Moorepark 29th).

Tae laidir · 01-01-2022 11:29am

And edged up again to 14.6 at Casement yesterday.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2022 2:31pm

IMT soared in the last three days and finished on 6.9 C. PRC also gained and looks to be around 110% just from a rough check, will probably work it out more precisely and get a sun estimate as it would be at least the 4th before we see a Monthly Summary. So for some temporary scoring I will work out those values. So many hours of mild weather, you'd think it could have edged up past 15 somewhere but apparently not.

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2022 2:31pm

MIN was -23 (here) does that count?

Tae laidir · 01-01-2022 4:50pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118400282#Comment_118400282

That's COLD!

You'll have to move to Alaska!

M.T. Cranium · 01-01-2022 10:43pm

Approximate Scoring for December 2021

IMT was 6.9, scored from 6.3 as a form of maximum progression (highest forecast 6.1).

MAX was 14.6, MIN -2.1 (Min scored from min. progression)*

PRC was 110% and SUN est 95% (last three days barely one-third of normal applied to 100% after 28d)

BONUS already scored from 8.9, 6.3 NO (scores incl 3 pts for no snow, * did not get those 3 pts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ BONUS

Bsal ___________________ 18 _ 16 _ 19*_ 15 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 90

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _______ 22 _ 16 _ 17*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 13 _ 89-1= 88

Kindred Spirit ____________16 _ 19 _ 17*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 85

DOCARCH ___ (-2) _______ 23 _ 18 _ 18*_ 08 _ 10 ___ 08 _ 85-2= 83

Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 12 _ 14*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 80

___ Con Sensus _________ 13 _ 18 _ 11*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 11 ______ 78

Artane2002 _____________ 15 _ 16 _ 16*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 76

Mr Stonewall ____________ 13 _ 16 _ 08*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 13 ______ 74

200motels ______________ 14 _ 13 _ 13*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 74

Appledrop ______________ 09 _ 19 _ 15*_ 12 _ 08 ___ 10 ______ 73

Pauldry _________________13 _ 19 _ 11*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 73

Sunflower3 _____________ 10 _ 16 _ 12*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 10 ______ 70

Joe Public _______________18 _ 18 _ 06*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 70

John mac _______________14 _ 06 _ 16*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 68

adam240610 __ (-2) ______10 _ 17 _ 11*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 11 _70-2= 68

___ NormaL _____________15 _ 11 _ 08*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 68

waterways ___ (-2) _______15 _ 11 _ 11*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 12 _ 68-2= 66

sryanbruen _____________ 10 _ 17 _ 06*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ______ 62

M. T. Cranium ___________ 11 _ 13 _ 07*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 07* _____ 61

Jpmarn ________________ 13 _ 16 _ 09*_ 00 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 59

Gonzo _________________ 05 _ 15 _ 05*_ 14 _ 08 ___ 09 ______ 56

Esposito ________________15 _ 13 _ 07*_ 10 _ 03 ___ 06 ______ 54

Dasa29 ________________ 12 _ 00 _ 12*_ 10 _ 08 ___ 06 ______ 48

Dacogawa ______________ 09 _ 15 _ 03*_ 00 _ 07 ___ 02* _____ 36

Mickey Mantle __ (-5) _____11 _ 00 _ 03*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 04* _38-5=33

Bazler ______ (-1) _______ 03 _ 00 _ 04*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 02* _32-1=31

Danno _________________ 00 _ 13 _ 02*_ 07 _ 00 ___ 01* _____ 23

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) _______ 00 _ 01 _ 01*_ 08 _ 03 ___ 01* _14-3=11

... scoring to be confirmed or adjusted on 4th-5th Jan when possible to check MS ...

... will probably hold off on the annual final update until that time, looks to be a tight finish perhaps and I just wanted to confirm my SUN estimate and make sure we didn't miss anything along the way for MAX or MIN (it rarely happens with so many watching) ...

... scoring generally quite good (thanks to our friend Min Progression), the top raw scores by the way would have been 66 (also Bsal); Bsal had one point for MIN and everyone else had zero (raw scores), and most of you had the extra six points (touchdown) for IMT, so to get your raw score just subtract your MIN score plus six from your total. Also of course 20 out of 26 scores had the three point Christmas bonus so the totals for most are out of 103 possible.

===========================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Dub(A) 25th _snow

DOCARCH ___ (-2) _______ 6.1 _ 14.8 _ -4.3 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 7.2 ,-0.8 _ No

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _______ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ -5.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 9.0 , 3.0 _ No

Tae laidir _______________ 5.8 _ 15.4 _ -5.4 _ 103 _ 100 ___10.1 , 3.5 _ No

Bsal ___________________ 5.6 _ 15.0 _ -4.0 _ 110 _ 092 ___ 9.0 , 3.5 _ No

Joe Public _______________5.6 _ 14.4 _ -6.9 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 7.8 , 2.5 _ No

Kindred Spirit ____________5.4 _ 14.5 _ -5.1 _ 115 _ 100 ___11.0 , 4.0 _ No

waterways ___ (-2) _______5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 123 _ 103 ___ 7.0 , 3.9 _ No

Artane2002 _____________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -5.2 _ 115 _ 105 ___ 7.3 , 0.5 _ No

Esposito ________________ 5.3 _ 13.9 _ -6.7 _ 095 _ 130 ___ 5.4 ,-3.8 _ No

___ Normal ______________5.3 _ 15.5 _ -6.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.5 , 2.5 _ No

John mac _______________ 5.2 _ 16.0 _ -5.2 _ 102 _ 098 ___11.2 , 3.2 _ No

200motels ______________ 5.2 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 112 _ 091 ___ 8.2 , 2.1 _ No

Pauldry _________________5.1 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___10.4 , 3.8 _ No

Mr Stonewall ____________ 5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.4 _ 112 _ 096 ___ 8.7 , 2.3 _ No

___ Con Sensus _________ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 096 ___ 7.8 , 2.0 _ No

Jpmarn _________________5.1 _ 14.2 _ -6.2 _ 160 _ 090 ___ 8.3 , 2.5 _ No

Dasa29 _________________5.0 _ 12.5 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 5.0 ,-4.0 _ No

M. T. Cranium ____________4.9 _ 15.3 _ -6.7 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 6.2 , 3.3 _ yes Knock

Mickey Mantle __ (new --) __4.9 _ 12.3 _-10.1 _ 099 _ 100 ___ 5.1 _-1.2 _ yes

Sunflower3 ______________4.8 _ 15.0 _ -5.8 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 8.2, 0.5 _ No

sryanbruen _____________ 4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.9 _ 115 _ 090 ___ 3.8 ,-0.7 _ No

adam240610 __ (-2) ______4.8 _ 14.9 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 088 ___ 8.0 , 2.0 _ No

Dacogawa ______________ 4.7 _ 15.1 _-10.5_ 170 _ 080 ___ 3.1 , -4.4 _ yes Casement

Appledrop ______________ 4.7 _ 14.5 _ -5.3 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 8.0 , 1.0 _ No

Gonzo _________________ 4.3 _ 15.1 _ -7.2 _ 112 _ 086 ___ 6.4 , 1.5 _ No

Bazler ______ (-1) _______4.1 _ 11.2 _ -8.2 _ 112 _ 090 ___ 2.5 ,-3.5 _ Yes Knock

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ______ 3.3 _ 12.7 _-13.7_ 090 _ 130 ___ 0.7 , -5.3 _ Yes Casement

Danno _________________2.7 _ 13.9 _-10.7_ 085 _ 145 ___ 1.4 ,-6.7 _ yes Ballyhaise

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2022 3:42pm

Still planning to wait for tomorrow's confirmations of our scoring data before posting the annual scoring results. However, thought we could probably start off with this feature ... which may require some minor adjustments if the DEC scores change. The order in this table is based on total scores not best 10/12 so it doesn't necessarily reveal the main contest order of finish to be posted (I hope) around mid-day your time tomorrow (to perhaps early evening depending on my ups and downs, I am quite ancient as you know and my sleep patterns are rather random these days) ...

Forecaster ___IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BNS Tot Act (Pen)

Max Possible __ 300 240 240 180 120 120+_1200 1200 - - _Max Possible

Sunflower3 ___ 202 148 155 110 089 092 __796 793 003 _Sunflower3

__Con sensus _ 196 160 124 122 093 083 __778 778 000 _Con Sensus

Artane2002 ___ 189 170 125 105 083 083 __755 755 000 _Artane2002

Tae laidir _____ 230 122 117 107 090 088 __754 754 000 _Tae laidir

Appledrop ____ 183 132 144 119 077 093 __748 748 000 _Appledrop

DOCARCH ____ 178 187 119 099 098 065 __746 744 002 _DOCARCH

MrSkinner ____ 221 111 149 094 090 074 __739 738 001 _Mr Skinner

Jpmarn ______ 227 127 132 078 083 078 __725 723 002 _ Jpmarn

john mac _____199 126 118 106 097 077 __723 722 001 _john mac

Kindred Spirit __205 119 111 128 082 074 __719 715 004 _Kindred Spirit

sryanbruen ___ 194 136 097 115 084 081 __707 707 000 _sryanbruen

__ NormaL ____183 142 086 110 095 091 __707 707 000 __NormaL

MrStonewall ___177 120 136 123 077 071 __704 704 000 _MrStonewall

pauldry ______ 186 159 095 083 086 083 __692 692 000 _pauldry

Adam240610 __188 139 125 103 070 068 __693 679 014 _Adam240610

Bsal _________ 182 115 093 121 091 067 __669 666 003 _Bsal

M.T. Cranium __205 128 083 090 082 065 __663 663 000 _M.T. Cranium

waterways ____211 065 101 104 087 100 __668 661 007 _waterways

Dacogawa ____ 184 135 119 076 081 061 __656 656 000 _Dacogawa

Dasa29 _______187 058 129 119 084 074 __651 651 000 _Dasa29

200motels ____ 167 098 101 107 079 086 __638 628 010 _200motels (11/12)

Joe Public _____184 090 120 099 070 064 __627 593 034 _Joe Public

Gonzo _______ 157 120 084 097 075 079 __612 592 020 _Gonzo

Danno _______ 106 088 075 105 039 042 __454 455 -001_Danno (10/12)

Western Storm_ 106 052 060 075 053 043 __389 389 000 _WesternStorm (7/12)

CirrusBusiness_ 110 057 041 064 034 036 __342 342 000 _CirrusBusiness (6/12)

SleetAndSnow _ 085 057 044 044 049 042 __321 316 005 _SleetAndSnow (6/12)

Eon1208 ______079 045 056 047 040 030 __297 295 002 _Eon1208 (5/12)

Funsterdelux __ 037 029 038 022 026 016 __168 161 007 _Funsterdelux (3/12)

Esposito ______ 072 045 036 033 018 016 __222 222 000 _Esposito (4/12)

sdanseo ______ 037 016 010 020 013 012 __108 103 005 _sdanseo (2/12)

BLIZZARD7 ____019 018 001 034 013 012 __097 093 004_ BLIZZARD7 (5/12)

Gaoth Laidir ___ 027 010 002 015 019 017 __090 090 000 _Gaoth Laidir (2/12)

Bazlers _______ 022 000 004 019 019 002 __066 065 001 _Bazlers (2/12)

Mickey Mantle __011 000 003 011 009 004 __038 033 005 _Mickey Mantle (1/12)

Tazio _________001 000 012 008 005 002 __028 026 002 _Tazio (1/12)

_________________________________________

_______________________________________

Note: A negative penalty is a score adjustment upwards from the category totals, for a minimum score (which is 10).

Contest rank is based on "Act" (actual), "Tot" is category total score before penalty or adjustment.

Three highest totals in each category:

IMT __ tae laidir 230 (76.7%) ___JPmarn 227 (75.7%) ___ MrSkinner 221 (73.7%)

MAX __ DOCARCH 187 (77.9%) _ Artane2002 170 (70.8%)_ Pauldry 159 (66.3%)

MIN __ Sunflower3 155 (64.6%)_ MrSkinner 149 (62.1%) __ appledrop 144 (60.0%)

PRC __ Kindred Spirit 128 (71.1%)_MrStonewall 123 (68.3%)_ Bsal 120 (66.7%)

SUN __ DOCARCH 98 (81.7%) ___ John mac 97 (80.8%) _ Bsal 91 (75.8%) (MrSkinner, tae laidir t4 90)

BONUS _ waterways 100 (83.3%)__appledrop 93 (77.5%) _ sunflower3 92 (76.7%)

_________________________________________________________-

Con Sensus would rank third for MAX (160 _ 66.7%), third for PRC (122_67.8%) and third SUN (93_77.5%)

NormaL would rank second for SUN (95 _ 78.9%) (its only top three score)

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2022 10:20am

Posting this a bit early before seeing the Monthly Summary, reason being that I don't trust the power to stay on here, we had a heavy snowfall and it can lead to brief power outages either from trees coming down across lines or drivers hitting poles -- had a few flickers already during the evening. And I may sleep past the appearance of the MS by several hours, so just in case, look this over but it may be subject to any changes needed for December scoring. I don't anticipate anything very much more than one or two points at the most here or there. Will post a summary with the usual congrats when I have confirmed these scores.

Final Contest Scoring Jan to Dec 2021

The ranks in column one are for the total scores; the ranks to the right of each row are the main contest rankings based on best 10 of 12 forecasts. The excluded scores are shown in italics in the monthly scoring section.

rank (prev) _ FORECASTER__J _ F _ M _A _ M _ J _J _ A _ S _O _ N _ D__TOTAL_best 10/12_rank (prev)

_01_(01) __sunflower3 ____ 76_37_72_66_67_66_74_78_71_64_52_70 _ 793 ___ 704 _ 01 (01)

_03_(04) __ tae laidir _____ 67_64_74_39_35_49_64_82_61_66_73_80 _ 754 ___ 680 _ 02 (02)

(02)_(02)___Con Sensus ___ 65_59_81_67_64_49_59_76_59_63_58_70 _ 778 ___ 671 _(03) ((03))

_02_(02)__ Artane2002 ____ 67_48_87_61_63_43_57_65_49_65_74_76 _ 755 ____ 664 _ 03 (03)

_06_(08) __ MrSkinner _____58_63_75_70_47_53_58_69_62_39_56_88 _ 738 ____ 652 _ 04 (07)

_09_(t10)__Kindred Spirit ___58_82_67_27_55_48_51_75_41_63_63_85 _ 715 ____ 647 _ 05 (09)

_04_(03)__ Appledrop ______56_75_75_52_74_53_51_51_65_51_72_73 _ 748 ____ 646 _t06 (06)

_05_(06) __ DOCARCH _____ 54_50_70_54_54_80_56_66_49_49_79_83 _ 744 ____ 646 _t06 (08)

_07_(05)__ JPmarn ________63_76_69_64_39_40_49_66_59_60_80_59 _ 724 ____ 645 _ 08 (04)

_08_(07) __ john mac ______62_68_68_34_52_73_57_73_70_44_53_68 _ 722 ____ 644 _ 09 (05)

(t10)_(10) __ __ NormaL ___59_76_58_48_35_73_56_71_53_51_59_68 _ 707 ____ 632 _ (10) ((11))

_11_(t10) __ Mr stonewall __ 65_59_41_68_60_38_60_68_49_66_56_74 _ 704 ____ 625 _ 10 (11)

_10_(09) __sryanbruen ____ 75_76_47 _69_60_57_38_59_59_58_47_62 _ 707 ____ 622 _ 11 (10)

_12_(13)__ Pauldry ________58_47_72_64_79_43_32_53_39_72_60_73 _ 692 ____ 621 _ 12 (t12)

_13_(14)__ Adam240610 ___58_68_54_65_72_31_49_70_32_54_58_68 _ 679 ____ 616 _ 13 (t12)

_14_(18) __ Bsal __________41_50_73_48_62_70_36_60_57_46_33_90 _ 666 ____ 597 _ 14 (19)

_19_(19) __ 200motels _____38_65_47_75_33_63_57_51_62_ --_63_74 _ 628 ____ 595 _ 15 (t17)

_16_(17) __ waterways _____55_62_29_41_62_68_71_59_54_44_50_66 _ 661 ____ 591 _ 16 (15)

_15_(16)__ M.T. Cranium ___ 47_37_65_79_47_65_42_68_53_54_45_61 _ 663 ____ 584 _ 17 (16)

_17_(12) __ dacogawa _____ 79_60_67_61_50_40_47_44_47_53_72_36 _ 656 ____ 580 _ 18 (14)

_18_(15) __ dasa29 _______ 48_43_65_42_54_56_40_81_51_56_67_48 _ 651 ____ 569 _ 19 (t17)

_21_(20) __ Joe Public _____ 41_42_45_58_30_48_10_64_69_53_63_70 _ 593 ____ 553 _t20 (21)

_20_(21) __ Gonzo ________81_20_83_40_74_39_19_46_34_54_46_56 _ 592 ____ 553 _t20 (20)

_22_(22) __ Danno ________38_10_25_65_66_--_74_--_ 62_52 _41_23 _ 456 ____ 456 _ 22 (22)

_23_(23)__ Western Storm __45_81_74_33_40_44_--_72_-- _ -- _ -- _--__ 389

_24_(24)__ Cirrus Business __35_53_73_67_72_42_--_-- _-- _-- _ -- _--__ 342

_25_(25) __ SleetandSnow __30_41_77_-- _-- _50_70_48_ --_ --_ -- _--__ 316

_26_(26) __ eon1208 ______ 53_76_62_58_ --_46_ --_ --_ --_ --_ -- _--__ 295

_27_(27) __ Esposito _______--_ -- _ --_ --_ --_57_57_54_ --_ --_ -- _54 _ 222

_28_(28) __ funsterdelux ___ 59_40_62 _ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ -- _ -- _ 161

_29_(29) __ sdanseo _______51_ --_52 _ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ --_ -- _ -- _ 103

_30_(31) __ BLIZZARD7 ____10_21_34_ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_ --_ 17_11 _ 93

_31_(30) __ Gaoth Laidir ___ --_ -- _ -- _ --_ -- _ -- _ --_58_32_ --_ --_ -- __90

_32_(32) __ Bazlers _______34_ --_ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_ --_31 _ -- _ 65

_33_(--) __ Mickey Mantle __ -- --_ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_ -- _33 _ -- _ 33

_34_(33) __ Tazio _________--_26 _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ -- _ --_ --_ --_-- _ -- _ 26

===========================================================

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2022 1:07pm

So, still waiting for the MS, could be delayed to tomorrow possibly? Perhaps Monday considered a holiday. Will check again later today.

mrskinner · 04-01-2022 3:55pm

Well done Sunflower

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2022 10:12pm

Yes, I will have some comments about the contest as soon as I think the numbers are valid, any small change to sunshine for Dec would perhaps move a few people up or down by one point, but there is quite a logjam in the results from 4th to 9th place so there could be a bit of movement in that zone, if all the main elements for DEC are verified.

In looking for the sunshine averages as part of getting ready to check the data, I noticed that met.ie plan to roll out 1991-2020 normal values at some point this year, so that may change some values for the IMT normals. It won't affect our contest much because you would already be predicting absolute values for temperature elements, and the PRC normals don't tend to change very much, probably not enough to influence any predictions.

When the scoring is confirmed, I will update those long-term summaries that appeared the past two years, showing your overall stats and a log of high scores which was looking very sparse for 2021 until several more entrants in December.

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2022 12:47pm

Very slight changes from the MS, but I will repost the tables with updated scores.

Confirmed Scoring for December 2021

IMT was 6.9, scored from 6.3 as a form of maximum progression (highest forecast 6.1).

MAX was 14.6, MIN -2.1 (Min scored from min. progression)*

PRC was 111% and SUN 105%

BONUS already scored from 8.9, 6.3 NO (scores incl 3 pts for no snow, * did not get those 3 pts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ BONUS

Bsal ___________________ 18 _ 16 _ 19*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 13 ______ 88

MrSkinner ___ (-1) _______ 22 _ 16 _ 17*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 13 _ 88-1= 87

Kindred Spirit ____________16 _ 19 _ 17*_ 14 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 87

DOCARCH ___ (-2) _______ 23 _ 18 _ 18*_ 08 _ 08 ___ 08 _ 83-2= 81

Artane2002 _____________ 15 _ 16 _ 16*_ 14 _ 10 ___ 09 ______ 80

Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 12 _ 14*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 12 ______ 79

___ Con Sensus _________ 13 _ 18 _ 11*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 11 ______ 76

Appledrop ______________ 09 _ 19 _ 15*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 10 ______ 74

Mr Stonewall ____________ 13 _ 16 _ 08*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 13 ______ 73

200motels ______________ 14 _ 13 _ 13*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 11 ______ 73

Pauldry _________________13 _ 19 _ 11*_ 09 _ 07 ___ 13 ______ 72

Joe Public _______________18 _ 18 _ 06*_ 09 _ 07 ___ 11 ______ 69

Sunflower3 _____________ 10 _ 16 _ 12*_ 13 _ 07 ___ 10 ______ 68

John mac _______________14 _ 06 _ 16*_ 12 _ 09 ___ 11 ______ 68

waterways ___ (-2) _______15 _ 11 _ 11*_ 11 _ 10 ___ 12 _ 70-2= 68

___ NormaL _____________15 _ 11 _ 08*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 13 ______ 67

adam240610 __ (-2) ______10 _ 17 _ 11*_ 11 _ 07 ___ 11 _67-2= 65

M. T. Cranium ___________ 11 _ 13 _ 07*_ 15 _ 10 ___ 07* _____ 63

sryanbruen _____________ 10 _ 17 _ 06*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 07 ______ 61

Jpmarn ________________ 13 _ 16 _ 09*_ 00 _ 07 ___ 12 ______ 57

Esposito ________________15 _ 13 _ 07*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 06 ______ 56

Gonzo _________________ 05 _ 15 _ 05*_ 15 _ 06 ___ 09 ______ 55

Dasa29 ________________ 12 _ 00 _ 12*_ 10 _ 10 ___ 06 ______ 50

Dacogawa ______________ 09 _ 15 _ 03*_ 00 _ 05 ___ 02* _____ 34

Mickey Mantle __ (-5) _____11 _ 00 _ 03*_ 11 _ 09 ___ 04* _38-5=33

Bazler ______ (-1) _______ 03 _ 00 _ 04*_ 15 _ 07 ___ 02* _31-1=30

Danno _________________ 00 _ 13 _ 02*_ 06 _ 02 ___ 01* _____ 24

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) _______ 00 _ 01 _ 01*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 01* _16-3=13

... scoring generally quite good (thanks to our friend Min Progression), the top raw scores by the way would have been 65 (also Bsal); Bsal had one point for MIN and everyone else had zero (raw scores), and most of you had the extra six points (touchdown) for IMT, so to get your raw score just subtract your MIN score plus six from your total. Also of course 20 out of 26 scores had the three point Christmas bonus so the totals for most are out of 103 possible.