FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Tyrone212

From a imby perspective from the gfs I went from having a white christmas to a mildish wet one, snow pushed back until later on the 26th now. Anyway lots of chopping and changing, no point dwelling on each run as it will keep changing.

Rebelbrowser

Oh ye of little faith. Christmas miracle coming from the ECM in an hour...

BLIZZARD7

Everything still very uncertain, but I think people are missing the bigger picture here. How many times have we had Northern hemisphere patterns like this at day 5/6 at this time of year? 🤔

The ensembles from GFS and ECM are still showing high pressure anomalies @ day 10 over Greenland and the Arctic. Even if Christmas snow chances vanish (I'm not convinced of this yet) there should be many more chances going forward...

mcburns07

Exactly, it's mid Dec, we have 6-8 weeks of peak winter to go and things are in our favour for a change, patience is key.

Gonzo

The GFS 12z ensembles are still updating and from Christmas Day onwards everything is up in the air. Roughly 60% of them are going for mild after Christmas and the rest are cold or very cold. There are still some beast from the east style charts leading into the new year so despite the very poor operational charts last night and this morning, the getting much colder theme from Christmas Day is still on the table.

mcburns07

Mods please delete

Snowbiee21

Looks as if it’s game over at 96 anyways.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348033#Comment_118348033

Yeah.

Gonzo

Mild up to southern Scotland now. We now have pretty much cross model agreement for a mild Christmas. Ah well the dream was nice while it lasted. Hopefully we can get another roller coaster in the run up to the new year and that it will go more smoothly than this one did.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118347642#Comment_118347642

Or oh ye who know what ye are on about (sob sob)...

Rebelbrowser

Sorry, just to clarify ECM out to t168 is a bust for cold and snow....

Rebelbrowser

The t168 ECM looks very like what ICON has been showing (and been laughed at for showing on Netweather) for about two days....

Kermit.de.frog

Yeah the tendency for some who should know better to ignore charts/data that don't show what they want is an issue that leads to over-reactions and disappointment for others as well.

NW, for example, is very south of England focused and there are meltdowns going on over there. Don't know why.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118343722#Comment_118343722

🎼 What , a difference, a day makes.. twenty four hours..🎼

Little snowy old me

What a shame. But I didn't allow myself to get to excited for fear of a big let down, which this is.

Cork2021

Ah well! On we go!!

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348425#Comment_118348425

With age comes great wisdom

sicknotexi

It doesn't look good. I curse the day I discovered those stupid colourful charts. This is all your fault Beast from the East 2018 version.

snowgal

Ah shtop!! Sure it’s not over yet! Only starting, Have a bit of Christmas spirit 😁🤞

sicknotexi

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348763#Comment_118348763

I was only joking with my previous post. I think everything is still all to play for. On to the pub run.

Gonzo

First thing, Snow before January is rarer than hen's teeth in Ireland. Snow in January is rare as Hens Teeth and snow in February and March is generally more likely. The models may have written cold and snow off the table for Christmas but that does not mean it has written it off for the rest of winter.

There is still an outside chance the models could swing back to cold before Wednesday evening. There is still the chance that we may have to jump on the rollercoaster again around Christmas for the run up to the new year. The GFS ensembles have begun to swing back to cold towards the new year after a big swing to mild this morning.

We may not get our cold or snow this Christmas but if we end up striking gold final days of December or some time in January or early February then I'd be more than happy with that. We will be extremely unlucky if we're still sitting here first week of February chasing FI Charts for the first flakes of snow this winter.

CrowdedHouse

\o/ for the mild

Kermit.de.frog

The charts are not terrible. There is potential but Christmas Day itself looks an ever longer shot.

pauldry

We will be extremely unlucky if we're still sitting here first week of February chasing FI Charts for the first flakes of snow this winter.

Every year we say this. 😉

Daz_

It always surprises me about this “technical “ thread that if it’s not the weather on the charts that some people want , science and fact goes out the window . Have hope and don’t be so doom and gloom take over .

Wishing for snow that doesn’t exist should be dumped into the general weather thread in my opinion .

mcburns07

Disagree, it's a thread for discussing FI Charts, don't see the issue with having a preference for what they show.

If this thread was purely technical discussion we'd have a handful posting in here and not many people interested in reading it.

Edit to say: This isn't over yet....

Rebelbrowser

18z gfs looks a slight improvement anyway....

Snowbiee21

MeteoAtlas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118349274#Comment_118349274

😶

mcburns07

🤣 Snowbie caught out plagerising for the second time in recent days.