FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118359479#Comment_118359479

They are indeed the biggest trollers.

Depressing.com

January, surprise us in a good way.

Over and out.

pauldry

I admire your optimism. They always go back to the sht charts eventually. Lead us on for a while then back to Bland.

The dream is over. I just said nearly last night as saw met Office video showing cold in N. Then saw date...20/12/2021 was when video was made.

So indeed there is zero chance of a white Christmas of even a white anything bar turkey. N ill probably burn that too.

munsterlegend

Lads pre January snow is as rare as hens teeth in these parts. Charts are chopping and changing a lot the past few days so who knows what they will show in next 48/72 hours.

Niall145

Sh*t climate

snowstorm445

This sort of thing happens to about 95% of wintry scenarios in the models. If every instance of cold synoptics actually came true we would have very snowy winters indeed, these scenarios are really common across the winter from start to finish. Oftentimes there will be complete agreement on it until a few days out.

Many painful experiences over many years have really hammered home how rare it is to actually see it. You would think over 10 years the science of modelling might have become a lot sharper and yet we still see this sort of stuff every year, depressingly.

pauldry

Yeah living in the Northwest for 17 years and you'd think we'd get a lot of snow but we get about 1 to 5 days most Winters and as mentioned most of them happen from January 21st to March 21st. I'd say over 90 per cent of them have.

So far this Winter wev had 2 days where there's been snow on the mountains that's all.

Gonzo

I don't think I've seen such a transformative overnight flip in charts so quickly. There are 0 cold runs left, not just for Ireland but most of Europe is now looking mild or very mild right into the first week of January (except Scandi and the extreme far east of Europe). So many of us on spent many hours on the models and the dream disintegrated, smashed to pieces by the Atlantic. The ECM was right all along to back the mild and the Icon was the first model to signal this very mild pattern setting up for end of December and start of 2022.

Definitely we can all do with a break from model watching and maybe come back in January and see do we make any progress with getting a few cold or snowy days this winter.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118359725#Comment_118359725

They've been shockingly bad. Worst I ever remember. Literally 180 degrees wrong most of the time the last two weeks.

Derekon2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360606#Comment_118360606

Gonzo, all valid points.......a wee bit disappointing to see the charts flip so dramatically overnight

To any new posters, bearing the following in mind will save a lot of disappointment in the future with respect to the hunt for cold & snow:

1. Only trust cold is on the way if the ECMWF/ UKMO are both showing it at 48-72 hours out

2. Anything beyond that is just speculation- also personally speaking, I only really trust the ECMWF & UKMO models with regards to any pending cold

If you really follow the above, you won't be disappointed (granted it's less fun!)

D

Irish Steve

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118359923#Comment_118359923

To coin a comment from a respected member from a few years ago "Ireland doesn't have a climate, it has weather". So true.

sryanbruen

These are the dangers that come with a wedge instead of a proper block in the high latitudes. Outside of very particular operational runs which were showing when I last posted and were outliers, there was never much promise for Ireland. Wedges rarely ever make sledges on this island, the northeast of the UK was much more favoured.

That Pacific typhoon caused some havoc in the model output and caused a collapse in the MJO. This is the prime likely cause why we seen such a sudden vanishing away from the anticyclone that was set to give us a settled end to the year. There was a small possibility that the wedge could force the Atlantic lows to undercut and eventually send Ireland into a cold easterly flow but it was looking far too weak. We would often be on the mild side of the background. The wedge then was backdated too north and west closer to Canada with the -NAO becoming western based. Preferably for cold here, the high would need to be at least positioned over Iceland.

Saying that, the switch to exceptionally mild conditions instead is extraordinary and what I have described does not excuse for that. Worst model failure since January 2019.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118360820#Comment_118360820

Its the very warm September curse I tell ya!

When it looked possibly good for a decent cold spell a number of days ago for the last week of Dec, I thought oh are we going to get away with the very warm September 2021 and very mild Autumn after all. Well today is no!! So far...........

Danno

What a let down... damn Atlantic lows, always power up when you least want them to - whether it's to dash a warm summer spell or a cold winter spell. We were close, maybe next time.

My fear now is that as the Hudson Bay in Canada completes it's freeze over it will enhance zonality going into early January as the cold will simply spill out over the mild Atlantic whipping up more lows.

Billcarson

It will end up being the usual of many recent winters with all hopes resting on Feb to deliver .......

Gonzo

The mild now appears to be locked in for the next 7 to 10 days at the very least. I would probably ignore the rather cold and snowy looking setup for January 1st on the latest CFS lol. Hopefully we can have another go at chasing cold and snow before the winter is over but to me this winter will probably end up like most winters. Many forecasters were predicting an average to slightly cooler than average December but that is now completely off the table, December is already milder than average and the milder than average anomaly will likely increase over the remaining days of December. At this stage confidence about a coldest January since 2010 is not looking good as this very mild Atlantic pattern can perssist for a long time, however it seems all through this year, every attempt at the Atlantic has resulted in a week or 2 of very wet conditions and then it shuts down so I still wouldn't role out us getting on the rollercoaster again at some point over the next month.

Probably best next time to look at the ECM for any trends and the UKMO on the shorter range. The GFS and to some extent the GEM will always have some eye candy with so many ensemble members to tease us 4 times per day.

Tyrone212

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118361683#Comment_118361683

"Mild locked in for another 7 to 10 days at the very least."

Maybe not, UKMO has it feeling more seasonal again.

Gonzo

From the UKMO charts Scotland and maybe NE England may get some sleet or snow from that but there is absolutely nothing in there for Ireland. It may feel cool for 2 days but it's not the proper cold or fun that we all crave so much. GEM 12z is similar and goes for 1 day of cold.

pauldry

Ah shtop will ya

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118362838#Comment_118362838

It probably won't happen but all that warm air could lead to a Scandi High. If you notice on that ECM Chart there is very cold air close by to the North East. Though, knowing our luck , the deep low in the Atlantic will force the high to slink away south eastwards, rather than moving in a way to facilitate the Siberian air heading our way

pauldry

I hate to say this because I don't know should I but I wouldn't write off a cold snap around Dec 26th 27th entirely. The deeper low pulls the cold air from the North as it traverses our South. Granted after this it'll be 10c to 13c

Larbre34

Come off it fellas, I've been coming in here 15 years, just for fun.

In that time, I'd say 6 or maybe 7 outbreaks have borne fruit. Some of them have been pretty spectacular, it has to be said, but 6 or 7 properly wintery spells in 45 months of Winter is the going rate and absolutely nobody should be surprised about the failure of modelling at +120 marginal conditions.

In fact, when I Iook back at the 46 or so Winters of my life, that number of decent periods of snow in just 15 years is actually well above average.

So, don't lose heart, a long Winter still lies ahead and fundamentals don't look too terrible for week 4 of it. Just don't drive yourself mad by putting faith in anything beyond +72. Its a fools errand.

J6P

Cheaper energy bills. That is the only positive!

YR no going for 15 degrees in Dublin on the 29th.🔥

Wouldn't be bad for July

Widdensushi

Fair play to ye, it's the most entertaining thread on boards every year, never fails to deliver, ye big babies 😂😂

Gonzo

We will be all back in here hoping on the rollercoaster within the next 2 weeks. I've a feeling the current exceptionally mild and Atlantic driven spell may well begin to run out of road by the middle of January or possibly earlier. January really is the start of winter in terms of colder weather when one can expect that there might be slim hope of some cold and snow. December rarely ever delivers. More likely to get snow mid April than anytime in December.

Meteorite58

Funny how the models all align when the Atlantic becomes mobile again!

Plenty of rainfall potential over the next 10 days, LP systems showing up more and more , like a steady progression moving up from the SW , becoming mild with blustery wet conditions and even a bit humid at times.

One system around next weds showing up on both the GFS and ECM could be a bit windy, will see if anything becomes of it.

Gonzo

looks very mild and wet over the next 7 to 10 days at least. However there is always hope that things may begin to turn colder as we head into the second or 3rd week of January. The warmth over the next week is bordering on extreme at times and is not sustainable for a long period of time.

Gonzo

Hope everyone is having a lovely Christmas. Last night I watched Gavsweather Christmas Eve live steam and on that he mentioned that quite often the models can show very cold and wintry conditions in FI on Christmas Day and part of the reason for this is the lack of weather data due to not many airplanes collecting data, and that these cold charts often disappear by the following day.

Anyway here we are it's Christmas Day and the GFS 12z is whipping up a fairly chilly northerly. Long way off into FI and probably a phantom Christmas Day bit of eye candy perhaps by lack of data.

Kermit.de.frog

There is one positive - the heating bills will be considerably lower over the next 7 - 10 days. Some nights later in the week not falling much below 12 or 13c.

Gonzo

yep the next 1 to 2 weeks look exceptionally mild and saving on the heating will be most welcome. There is a chance we may be on the rollercoaster again mid month but we would need major luck on our side to tap into cold spells this winter as most of them are lining up to affect Scandinavia to Greece/Turkey regions and this looks like continuing for the time being while the Atlantic is extremely active. In 2 weeks time we will be at the half way point of winter so unless we get a dramatic model flip to severe cold in the next 2 weeks, the first half of winter will finish up extremely mild and mostly Atlantic driven.

Many forecasters were forcasting the coldest winter since 2010 for this winter and at the moment these forecasts are looking a bit of a bust, we will need a flip to sustained cold and more seasonal conditions soon. We really needed that cold spell over Christmas and the New year, while we did get the blocking, the Atlantic powered up at the worst time possible and the block was no match for power of the Atlantic. It remains to be seen will the Atlantic continue to power through mild south-westerlies for the rest of winter or can we get another block going with a chance to drag colder air this far west. Anything is possible with the weather, the weather will do what the weather wants and we have no control over it other than to describe what the charts/models are showing us looking for trends etc and making guesses after that.

mcburns07

Its difficult to see the warm anomalies continuing. December is the 7th month in a row of above average temps at Cork Airport. 9 of 12 months this year have been above average. Something has to give eventually. We’ve seen how useless the models are beyond the usual 5 days so I’m not placing much stock in the mild they’re showing. Expecting a flip to something colder in the next few weeks, how cold remains to be seen.