FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Hopes and dreams are always going to be crushed or made here in Fantasy Island. It's not worth getting upset if something in the very unreliable timeframe does not happen. When it comes to cold and snow, Ireland is one of the toughest places on the planet to predict snow, the UK is similar but has more favorable geography and positioning. The majority of properly wintry charts fail to make it beyond Fantasy Island and we end up with a far more bland solution most of the time. December 2010 and possibly 2018 Beast from the East are rare exceptions where we could see them show up in the extended range of FI and stay largely on course up to the moment snow started to fall.

Our current situation is a great unknown. I just took a look at this mornings models and most of them keep us dry and settled but there are still some isolated runs showing Beast From the East style situations for us after Christmas Day while others go for northerlies. Some runs are hinting at bringing back the Atlantic or milder air up from the south. At the moment anything is possible between Christmas Day and New Years day and I wouldn't discount anything. We will definitely see some frosty nights and rather chilly days over Christmas which is a far better outcome than most years. I still reckon January into February is when we will get a better chance of some proper cold and hopefully snowy conditions. December was always forecasted to be fairly average but maybe a cool or cold trend towards the final week and that is exactly what we're getting.

pauldry

Yes the charts look promising now for cold. Theyr nice to look at anyways. Maybe that is why the members are doing it. So that we can all get excited for Christmas (even if our dreams get dashed)

typhoony

Battleground might be over the UK but to my untrained eye there is decent potential for a cold blast from the East looking at todays +144 charts

nacho libre

I think the Atlantic will have a go but not win through as suggested, although we would have to endure a few unsettled days before the block asserts itself again. It still looks like we are in with a shout for snowy cold towards the end of the year, certainly if the MJO really is one of the driving agents in terms of getting cold here. I will be more confident of all this happening if we see a switch in the UKMO long range update towards a snowy cold outcome. I think for the 2010 cold spell they signalled it well in advance. Not sure if it was the same for 2018?

Gonzo

From what I remember 2010 was signaled almost a month before it happened and there was barely any chopping and changing in the models in the run up to the event. I think the Beast From the East was largely straight forward but there were some downgrades and upgrades in the run up to the event.

As for the weather between now and Christmas I think we will get some low level cold with temperatures daytime around 5C but I think the bulk of cold is well supported for continental Europe, particularly the eastern quarter and pushing south east into Greece and maybe the boot of Italy. I have a feeling for us the mild will win out towards the new year and opening 10 days of January could be fairly average or even quiet mild and Atlantic driven. Perhaps towards the middle to end of January we could have a better chance of a proper cold and snowy spell. All we need is a good 4 day blast of cold and snow and that would make must of us happy and the thing is these events rarely happen before January anyway.

Billcarson

I think if we are going to get a decent cold spell it has to be before the middle of jan. I would say the best bet is early jan. Second half of Jan hasn't delivered in years......

Gonzo

GFS 12z is rolling out and if it verifies it's game over for the Christmas holidays. Atlantic rolls back in from Christmas eve and a fairly unsettled and often wet week between Christmas day and New Years day with temperatures possibly reaching 14C after Stephens Day. By the 28th most of Europe has gone very mild by this point with any cold shoved right back up to the pole and into Russia.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118326695#Comment_118326695

FFS

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118326722#Comment_118326722

We have to hope this is an extreme mild outlier but I haven't liked the way the models have changed run by run over the past 2 days and this mornings runs we're having more of an Atlantic influence in several of the runs and now we have the pigs ear sitting beside the Christmas Turkey on todays GFS 12z.

Cork2021

🥲

mcburns07

It's the hope that kills you.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118326745#Comment_118326745

A positive is the 12z GEM is looking good. This could be the rollercoaster of all rollercoasters..

sryanbruen

The wobbling is all thanks to a typhoon in the Pacific that is approaching the Philippines and results in a temporary collapse of the MJO. This collapse has given a signal for more energy in the Atlantic than was previously likely. This energy would need to undercut and pressure to lower through the med for any hope of high latitude blocking. I was saying to others that we would be fortunate if we get any snow this side of the New Year with a small risk and January would provide the highest hope, now not so sure and not as optimistic.

GFS 12z is worst run yet.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118326781#Comment_118326781

Of all the models the GEM has been the most consistent with it's forecasts over the past 5 days so there is hope that maybe it is correct. CFS has also been fairly determined to keep us cold over the Christmas Holiday week. The GFS has never really gone for this cold spell at any stage other than some lower resolution members.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO looks beautiful, I'd rather it on board than the GFS at this point, which itself is more prone to looking uncertain and chaotic purely by virtue of the fact we see x4 runs a day. Lots more ups and downs to come, hopefully ECM follows UKMO/GEM this evening.

BLIZZARD7

ECM 12z is v nice, high risk high reward but looks like it will deliver Christmas snow in its latter frames... the roller coaster continues

Edit : Unfortunately doesn't make it, PV is in bits though... the blocking high migrates too far north rather than sinking this time 🤦‍♂️

ECM/UKMO/GEM are quite solid looking in the 96-168hr time frame so still all to play for

Gonzo

ECM 12z should reinstall some confidence that we are still within a chance of cold between Christmas and New Year. No doubt about it the GFS has had a serious wobble today. Tomorrows runs will be critical to see if the GFS is on to something or will it get back in line with the other models and a colder outlook. This battle isn't over yet.

Slashermcguirk

Anyone know what the record is for driest year on record in Ireland? Dublin airport only at 615mm of rain for the whole of 2021 to date. With the dry outlook that must be considered a really dry year! I think Dublin averages between 700-750 mm per year. I would say below 600mm would be extremely rare

As for Christmas, would give anything for a good snow blast!

Billcarson

I'm not really a big fan of these slider situations too risky ,id rather the low tracked more to our south and out of the way. I'd rather take our chances with the hp further south and see what we may get eventually.

I wouldn't be surprised if the low does track further south and the hp not going as far north. Time will tell......certainly is far from resolved .

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327351#Comment_118327351

only 356mm or 14ins fell at Glasnevin (Botanics I presume) in 1887, I think 1976 might be the driest of the 20th century as winter 75/76 was dry?

Nice ECM , I think it might take one or two attempts for anything wintry but it has 1978 written all over it!

Kermit.de.frog

Everyone remain calm, like me 😎

icesnowfrost

12z is a soul destroyer :( but it’s only one bad run. Still hope ahead, all is not lost.

Dazler97

I see met Éireann are saying next week " turning somewhat colder as the week progresses" I think models are looking good for end of December into January for snow I know it may not be set in stone but nice to look at

BLIZZARD7

GFS is rubbish this morning, UKMO looks decent and the ECM... delivers a howling North easterly right on que for Christmas day! - one can dream 😁😁😁

Important differences around +120 to +168hrs that will decide our fate, keep an eye on the low off coast of Norway in this timeframe... I'm glad to have the UKMO (mostly) and ECM on board at this stage

BLIZZARD7

This is probably the best possible setup we could see for Christmas day...East Coast under constant heavy snow showers, looks like a disturbance in the flow

- please don't take these charts seriously yet, the ultimate tease... but wow

Let the upgrades begin

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329279#Comment_118329279

I can see isle of man shadow been cursed already!

Danno

WOW - lovely charts, lets hope this trend sticks, along with the snow!

Danno

Kermit.de.frog

Ok, now i'm officially interested.

Rebelbrowser

ECM is not supported by GFS or GEM (though GEM a halfway house). Great if other models come on board. Obviously if you only have one model in your favour you pick ECM every time

GFS at t240

GEM at t240