FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2021/2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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A fantastic run by the ECM. That would deliver an absolute pasting for much of Leinster and showers would also get along way into the midlands and parts of munster too. We really need all the other models on board with this particular run over the next few days.
There is something odd with the GFS, not just over the past few days but the past few weeks. I've noticed it is tending to throw out the mildest charts it can find for many operational runs over the past few weeks, the odd time it throws in a very cold run and rarely shows us the more likely outcome. This mornings GFS is same as yesterday's 12z going full on for zonality and mild after Christmas. This run is one of the most extreme mild runs in the current set. However there has been a shift back to cold in general with many of the other lower resolution GFS members.
GEM isn't great this morning and looking at the other members there are only 2 members out of 21 going for something similar to this mornings ECM. However the GEM does seem more to support a cold outbreak closer to New Year's Eve.
CFS is still cold or very cold for the Christmas holidays but more of a northerly so that would be mostly dry.
As for that beautiful ECM run this is the precipitation chart towards the end of the run.
If the above verified there would be serious disruption with prolonged snow and possibly blizzard conditions across much of Leinster and into the midlands. This is perfection and all we want for Christmas. The wind direction is spot on as the IOM shadow wouldn't really affect us, it would be more of a problem for Northern Ireland. If the winds had any more of a northerly tilt to them then the IOM Shadow would come into play. Even if the ECM proves correct and the other models start supporting this, we are unlikely to get the wind direction at this perfect angle to maximize snow streamers across Leinster from Louth to Wexford. All eyes down on the ECM this evening, fingers crossed it continues to show charts like this. I would like to see the GEM getting back to the colder solutions it had earlier in the week and for the CFS to continue throwing out cold charts with sweet easterlies rather than northerlies.
I don't have alot of confidence in the GFS 12z, it will probably be another very mild outlier. The Pub run didn't even work last night it stopped at 144 hours on wetterzentrale.
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Something which always forgot in this sort of set up is north Donegal especially around Inishowen which receives plenty of snow from streamers along the north coast if the wind direction is right.
Note also that the ECMWF showed storm Barra 9 days out on the 18th of November and storm Barra hit Ireland on the 7th of December so this may be a good Oman. It nailed it on the head. I have attached that run below from the 28th of November.
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GFS 12z a massive change and brings a 2 day snow fest, very similar to the ECM
The butterflies in my stomach have started in preparation for this evenings ECM 12z, will we have more of the same, an upgrade or will it break our hearts.
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When we had yesterdays GFS 12z unleash the pigs ear I was very unhappy about it but part of me was kinda relieved that we wouldn't be heading into another week of heartdropping moments every morning and every evening for the 6z and 12z. The tension is definitely back on now and I think it is obvious we're due some more sea sawing of models and charts.
GEM 12z isn't cold yet but does show plenty of promise and could end up getting very cold towards the new year.
Not looking forward to the ECM 12z but I hope it's another great one. We have waited 11 years now for a cold and snowy winter. We Deserve this. I know there was 2018, but that was really a Spring event.
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ECM 12z similar to the morning run. A strong block with lows sliding more ESE than SE resulting in them sliding a little closer to our south coast than earlier run. Colder airmass moving in from a slacker NE rather than ENE direction by Xmas Day. Lots of snow-making potential in the mix in the latter parts of the run from Xmas Day night into the 26th.
Ultimately, in the more reliable 3-5 day period up to Tuesday the model is a slight improvement on the 0z run. Just need a few more days of consistency on ECM/GFS now.
Post edited by Changwhitewater on7 -
ECM 12z is done. Not as good if you want snow and the air over us is milder but overall the trend is very similar to this morning. Basically the cold has shifted north by about 200 miles. Looks very similar to the GEM 12z. If we see similar charts in the morning to both of today's ECM's and a continuation of GFS and it's ensembles going colder then we can start to feel more confident about all this.
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ICON only goes to Christmas Eve but it's looking good and shows that it can get fairly cold from Christmas Day.
The GEM 12z is similar to the ECM 12z but the lower resolution GEM members go up to 384 hours just like the GFS and several of them are developing very cold conditions for us in the run from Christmas Day to New Years Day.
Over the past week of model watching, today has definitely been the most promising day. However we still have 9 days to go with this so plenty more surprises on the way.
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Shot before this. Light snow across west Ulster and Wicklow mountains. Probably snow on the Northern third of this system as it heads North across the country. Long bit away, might not happen. If it stalls somewhere could be a nice big dump before Christmas.
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