Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2021/2022 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Thanks for posting all those charts Meteorite, very useful. GFS 12z have pulled back max gusts to 114kmh in this part of Mayo, still warrants an orange though I would think.
I get these GFS numbers from windguru, I find they've been groundtruthing very well with the reports from the local stations.
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Happy new year everyone!😃
Need to keep an eye out for this low pressure system just to our south later Monday night/Tuesday
GFS and GEM develop this feature in a way where snow is possible on the northern flank of the associated fronts and southern and south eastern counties most at risk of that snowfall as it's coming up against the cold air from the north.
UKMO/ECM keep it further south avoiding the country altogether, mostly dry but notably colder for a time.
We shall see later if any moves either way...
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Monday night into Tuesday mornings feature now showing on the GFS and ECMWF model that rain turning to sleet and snow on the northern flank across Connacht and parts of west Munster. Freezing level down to around 400ASL. Will be interesting to see if there is any more changes over the next 24hours. Also a risk of some strong winds in coastal areas of the west and southwest.
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Yes a good test for the models in the upcoming bit of cold weather. GFS showing more in the Western half of the country, could be all very light and sleety in nature but the fact it is falling later in the night might help some snow in higher elevations it to stay on the ground for a time as the cold air settles in. Winds keeping the temperatures up along the coasts, could be frosty and possibly icy inland by Tues morning.
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Full on wintry weather Thurs into Fri. Blustery Front crossing the country early Thurs morning with a fresh unstable airflow following and dragging in much cooler air producing a large amount of wintry showers of hail rain sleet and increasingly to snow. Unstable enough for large convective weather producing heavy hail with thunderstorms and strong gusts quite possible. Becoming increasingly wintry towards evening with some considerable accumulations possible on elevated ground, enough to make driving very difficult overnight and into Fri morning. Charts below give an indication of where snow might accumulate. Most of the weather in the Western half of the country and coastal counties inland a bit probably getting the most wintry precipitation that might accumulate.
Very windy along the coasts, maybe warrants yellow warnings considering the combination of weather types , considerable Windchill so might be bringing the gloves to work with me 😀
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So looks like three stages to the upcoming spell of wintry weather beginning as the fronts crosse the country in the early hours possibly turning to sleet and snow in Northern areas as it runs into into cold air , how much will fall and when and if it transitions back to rain remains to be seen but more than likely a wet snow on lower levels for a time and decent amounts on higher ground .
Following the front will be a series of troughs and introducing the colder more unstable airmass with the 528dam line crossing the country. Here will turn to wintry showers during the day and increasingly to hail and possible thunderstorms and snow showers well into Thurs night / early Fri morning, some more prolonged wintry precipitation possible locally I would reckon.
Models now picking up what looks like another a more active trough crossing early Fri and or the beginning of an area of Lp which looks to bring more widespread snow, this is one to watch , I think the models might upgrade this more perhaps.
All the models showing different snow depth charts from nothing to a few cm's in places. I would think something like a cross between the ECM and the GFS would be a fair guide at this stage, maybe leaning towards the ECM. Very blustery for a time especially along the coasts and as the fronts crosses the country early morning.
12.00 Thurs
00.00 Fri
12.00 Fri
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After the overnight frontal rain turning cooler and showery again, quite windy along the coasts and blustery for a time overland . Convective ability again tomorrow for hail showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. The 528dam line in over Ireland again . Showers becoming sleety, probably only real chance for any snow to settle would be on the highest ground like mountains and maybe some hilltops briefly but turning milder again early Sunday morning .
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After a rather chilly week with some cold zonality we appear to be heading into a relatively mild and settled spell of weather with high pressure taking over. This is a mild ridge to begin with but it may turn cooler as the week progresses. Tomorrow will be a very mild day with temperatures reaching 11 or 12C across the country and from Tuesday onwards daytime temperatures genearlly 5 to 9C, so nothing too mild or cold.
By Wednesday high pressure will be positioned right over us and there maybe a chance of some sunshine with clear skies at night, so patchy frost is possible from mid week but temperatures even at night may stay above freezing throughout the week until we get to next weekend.
With all this high pressure around there will be very little in the way of rain away from the north-west with most places seeing no more than 1 or 2mm of rain this week. Some places may stay completely dry over the next 7 days. By next weekend we will be exactly half way through this winter and will progress into the second half of winter during the 3rd week of January.
There is alot of uncertainty what happens after this Friday so I've decided to just talk about this weeks weather rather than try and focus what happens during the 3rd week of January.
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After the front goes through Thurs evening much cooler air moves in from the NW giving wintry showers and snow accumulations on Hills and mountains mostly in the NW and N and possibly some snow on high ground in the W. Blustery with some wintry showers along Atlantic coasts coasts, more so in the W, NW, N and possibly a bit breezy overland on Friday, temps look set to be maxing at 6 to 8C near the coasts in the SW, S and SE, much colder in the Northern third of the country, looks like good sunny spells for much of the country. Turning cold after dark with frost in sheltered places, temperatures rising from the W early Sat morning, turning milder as the day goes on .A breezy to blustery weekend in store at times, possibly quite wet during Sat into Sun morning and perhaps showers or some more prolonged rain in places on Sunday when Temperatures will be milder up around 10 - 12C.
Would expect some hail showers along the coasts, remains to be seen if there is enough instability to get a few isolated thunderstorms sparking near the coasts from early Fri. best chances would think in the NW and N.
Some decent rainfall accumulations showing up especially in the NW /N.
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Slow moving trailing front over us for much of the day tomorrow into Sunday when it should break up to showers and ease as the day goes on.
Quite windy tomorrow along the coasts and blustery overland , feeling cool in the wind. Not pleasant conditions with the wind blown rain.
Sunday looking very windy along Northern coasts and blustery inland slow to ease in the evening/ night, looking colder there now also then earlier charts were showing in fact could get wintry showers. Could have frosts Sun night into Mon morning.
Snow accumulations on high ground in Northern counties possible again on Sunday. Looks like a very raw day in Ulster.
Certainly more seasonal weather this weekend.
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Rainfall totals look to tot up again as we move into the early days of next week.
Rain spreading to most areas from the W tomorrow afternoon into Sat, highest rainfall totals in Atlantic coastal counties much less the further E , Galway and Kerry could get 10 to 15mm approx in 24 hrs.
Latest guidance showing Sunday to be quiet wet ( this is still evolving so may change, the chart below is the latest guide.
Monday looks mostly dry apart from some showers around the coasts until rain arrives towards evening in the W and currently looks like producing a of rain from later Mon into Weds ( Rainfall accumulation chart below past 120 hrs but have included up to early Weds morning as the rain begins within the +120hrs to give some kind of an indication of how wet the spell could be )
Model Map - Accumulated Total Precipitation (mm)
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Windy along the coasts and blustery overland during the frontal passage tomorrow into Sat. Less cold on Saturday and turning cold again on Sunday, maybe some sleet on Mountain tops, a bit of white on the Wicklow mountains perhaps.
Will see if it we get a blast of milder and very wet weather briefly brought up from the SW around next Tues into Weds.
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Still holding on to the very windy look for next Weds. The jet looks like whipping up a strong storm off the NW, strength over Ireland all down to the track.
Not much difference between the ECM, GFS and GEM.
GFS looks the strongest for now, UKMO a bit further out for now so keeping the strongest winds to the NW /W.
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ARPEGE on the upper end of the wind strength predications for Weds and ECM has backed off considerably on its latest output. GFS probably about in the middle for now. Some heavy rain also and turning to wintry showers more so in the NW later Weds into Thurs.
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Huge temperature swings this week. Getting up to around 15C on Weds and later getting cold very quickly in Northern counties and maybe just 8 or 9C on Thurs with a few white peaks on Mountains in the NW.
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