Storm Barra: December 7/8th 2021 **Technical Discussion Only**

Gaoth Laidir

Cork Airport warning from Met Éireann, valid to 11 am. Winds increasing to gusting to 65-70 knots from 6-9 am.

EICK AD WRNG 03 VALID 070400/071100 WIND SFC S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 0706/0709 SW 30-35KT MAX 60-70 FCST=

sudocremegg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281434#Comment_118281434

Still plenty of boats out there.

Many of those fishing boats were still fishing less than an hour ago. That container ship left moneypoint 12 hours ago, I guess it's hoping it can outrun it?

One container ship left Waterford port also.

pauldry

The rapid intensification reminds me of storms in 1997 and 1998. The only saving grace is the strongest winds bash into the Magilicuddy Reeks and a lot of remote areas of Kerry to start. However other towns and villages there and in Cork could have massive structural damage and sea surge.

konman

All the hi-res models showing snow for Mayo, Sligo, Leitrim, north Roscommon and Donegal in the morning.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281462#Comment_118281462

Jesus, my dear ole granny used to say " tis no night for seafaring". When is your 'still' from????????

Gaoth Laidir

There's an interesting early paper on rapid cyclogenesis back in the 1970s. Well worth a read.

[15200493 - Monthly Weather Review] Synoptic-Dynamic Climatology of the “Bomb”.pdf

Meteorite58

Would have always viewed the WRF as being fairly solid and reliable in the shorter timeframe, never one to overdo it.

sudocremegg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281473#Comment_118281473

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-7.1/centery:52.2/zoom:10

Meteorite58

An idea of rainfall accumulations into Weds.

Donegal Ken

Donegal, Sligo and Leitrim at present are likely to be upgraded to a Status Orange wind warning for Wednesday morning espically if this trend continues. Galway and possibly even Waterford may be upgraded to a Red level warning on Tuesday morning. We may see Met Éireann issue updated warnings as early as 6am this morning. Parts of the northwest will see some snowfall on Tuesday morning with some accumulations and blizzard type conditions particularly over high ground. There will be a surprise or two I'd say come Tuesday. The below image attached was Belleek, Fermanagh this morning.

dacogawa

Sat image rotation at 11:45 & 00:15

See you all bright and early!

igCorcaigh

Q: Do extra-tropical systems in this part of the world go through eyewall replacement cycles? (TY!)

Brief_Lives

Bookmarked

M.T. Cranium

Three hour pressure fall of 14.4 mbs at M6 buoy, winds have increased there to ENE 61 G 78 km/hr, and it has cooled to 4.5 C.

Storm centre around 978 mb at 51.5 N 18W.

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281667#Comment_118281667

Holy smokes. Extrapolated that's 115hPa / 24hrs. Definition of explosive cyclogenesis is 24?

Danno

My untrained eye says this storm centre is tracking more southerly than the models thought? https://en.sat24.com/en

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281689#Comment_118281689

Equally untrained, but looks to be headed directly at Loop Head to me.

sdanseo

Just looking at Arpege and HIRLAM there, and both seemed to be predicting it to track ENE from 6am-12pm. So the centre will likely move further north of where it is then.

M.T. Cranium

ICON 00z still wants to bring the centre in relatively south of consensus although now it's south Clare, also the circulation is much flabbier than other models, which would have the effect of keeping most of the stronger winds off the south coast. After this is all said and done we will either be saying "should have trusted the ICON" or "thank goodness nobody believed the ICON."

Oneiric 3

Pressure (sea level) is falling here now at the rate of 1.0hPa every 15 minutes, or 4.0hPa every hour, so beginning to 'bomb' now.

Current reading:

igCorcaigh

Has suddenly turned very windy in Cork City.

BringBackMick

GFS midday , hitting southwest hard

M.T. Cranium

Arpege, GEM and GFS 00z continue their earlier tracks so ICON still without any support.

tbayers

Latest models suggest Waterford very close to Red warning now too

SouthWesterly

My weather station is showing 951 hPa in North kerry.

Sudden drop in the last hour.

Oneiric 3

Current pressure reading is 978.3hPa. Breezy from the ESE but nothing untoward. Standard winter fare.

spookwoman

Met updated site some of the south marine warnings back to orange

The Nutty M

Meteorite58

For the records.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118281625#Comment_118281625

Extratropical cyclones don't have eyes in the way tropical cyclones do. Two very different structures.

Latest satellite loop shows the strongest winds so far getting into the far southwest now. No evidence of a stingjet so far.