BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? **threadbans in OP**

Northernlily

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545324#Comment_118545324

No, he hasn't. He'll either cave or go. He can linger on but he's done as far as implementing policy goes.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545336#Comment_118545336

In reality it suits Labour to shout for him to leave but secretly hope he doesn't. At least not till after the next round of local elections.

salonfire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118545336#Comment_118545336

He'll stick it out. At least I hope he does and when he falls, it's over something actually important.

Remember the fuss about Bernard Castle, he was able to ride that one out. He'll do the same with this.

Leroy42

You don't think lying to the people, lying to Parliament and consistently breaking the rules he forced onto others is important?

Not to mention negotiating a terrible trade deal, lying to the Queen, highest deaths from Covid in the EU, biggest economic slump.

But, yeah, sure its not important whether the PM is a liar.

Penn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550246#Comment_118550246

He wasn't the one who went to the castle in that situation though, he was a few steps removed from it, and even then Cummings ended up being given the boot anyway. It was very much the beginning of the end.

Johnson was at these parties, and knew about some of the other ones. He can't remove himself from that. The issue is there's little really that can force him out, so if he decides to dig his heels in, the only thing that's likely to force him out is a vote of no confidence which would need a large enough contingent of Tories to support. If they feel he's become enough of a political liability they might, but I think enough of them are shameless pricks that Johnson could get enough votes to survive.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550246#Comment_118550246

He rode it out because it was Dominic Cummings who was the guilty party. He did not ride it out.

This is spitting in the face of everyone who had to bury a family member, forego a major occasion like a wedding (or multiple weddings in my case) or stay away from loved ones while they were ill. 153,000 deaths and, presumably you're defending him because he owns the libs or some such drivel.

He's thankfully done this time and will live the rest of his life knowing that he's the worst PM for generations. He has accomplished nothing and wrought havoc on this country just because he wanted to play Churchill.

Seth Brundle

He's thankfully done this time and will live the rest of his life knowing that he's the worst PM for generations. He has accomplished nothing and wrought havoc on this country just because he wanted to play Churchill.

Aah now you're being unfair to him. He accomplished one thing: he got Brexit done, something the British will remember for a long time!

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550679#Comment_118550679

I can't tell if that's sarcasm or not given some of the weird defenses you see on Boards

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550679#Comment_118550679

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550865#Comment_118550865

Probably the former.

He got Brexit done the same way I'll get today done simply by existing while the timer runs out. If that's an achievement, Tory fans must be truly desperate.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550865#Comment_118550865

It's sarcasm. Whilst he managed to achieve something called Brexit, I don't think those that voted for it believed that the UK would end up weaker as a result. Johnson's only political achievement will has cost the economic reputation of GB and led to a loss of British jobs, higher prices and all the other negatives that we've discussed at length in the various Brexit threads. Plus, he might even manage to reintroduce violence on a large scale in NI if he continues with his current approach.

Muahahaha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118544922#Comment_118544922

Dick got a recent contract extension from the Tories despite the Met being involved in a lot of scandals, she owes Boris & Co.

Capt'n Midnight

FYI Tonight at 18:45 on Channel 4

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/boris-johnson-has-he-run-out-of-road

MrVestek

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118499071#Comment_118499071

I'm fat. I get a pass.

ancapailldorcha

He's done. Worst PM in decades. He's surrounded himself with intellectual pygmies devoid of morals and talent and this is the result.

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550246#Comment_118550246

Slight difference is he was nothing to do with the Bernard Castle thing...

If he stays good news for labour imo his poll numbers are brutal.

If he goes the clowns they have mentioned to replace him are even worse that idiot Truss and Sunak who happily just wrote of 4.3 billion of dodgy COVID "loans"...a great look

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118550628#Comment_118550628

If he wanted to really play Churchill GB News would have him on....

GB News had an interview with a Winston Churchill lookalike in character....I am not joking....

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557386#Comment_118557386

Saw that. Not sure what sort of mouth-breathing troglodyte that was for.

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557390#Comment_118557390

Most of the GB News audience? It's practically award winning stuff versus the Darren Grimes show...

Poor Anne Diamond lol...she couldn't just leave us with fond memories of Good Morning with Anne and Nick...I guess you gotta pay the mortgage some how

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557257#Comment_118557257

I wouldn't be so sure.

If we look at that graph, every PM over the last 40 years had reached the particular low point that Johnson is currently at, but then began to claw back support. Thatcher, one of the most hated PM's in my living memory, rebounded 4 times from a low of -40. And Major, Blair and Brown had all had upward trends towards the end of their tenure.

Johnson does appear to be in a terminal decline though. But all it would take would be for some opportune circumstance for him to capitalise on and he could see his approval rating creeping back up. Take a look at John Major's really steep and deep decline around 1992. But the Cons still won a majority over a flabbergasted Labour in a surprise GE that year and he managed to stay on for another 5 years.

What's most interesting about that graph, however, is Teresa May who's trend shows a strong upward incline (dips notwithstanding) at the end of her "reign". She really did have the legs taken from under her from her own because of her milquetoast position on Brexit.

Peregrinus

None of the Prime Ministers who reached the nadir of approval that Johnson is now at recovered sufficiently to win another election with the exception of Margaret Thatcher, and her turnaround was the result of the invasion of the Falklands War. However the Ukraine crisis plays out it cannot have the same result for Johnson because, even if on the winning side, the UK will be no more than a bit player, and the Ukraine crisis does not involve an attack on the UK or any UK colony; Johnson can never hope to be seen as the victor of the Ukraine in the way that Thatcher was seen as the victor in the Falklands.

So, is there anything else that can work the Falklands magic for Johnson? I don't know that there is; his great opportunity to display resolute leadership, face down the naysayers and deliver a national triumph came with the pandemic, and he stuffed it up. Far from leading a victory parade, just over a year ago he found himself apologising for 100,000 UK dead. And nothing we have learned since then in relation to management of the Covid pandemic has exactly burnished his reputation, has it?

I don't see anything on the horizon to save him. He might pray for the French to invade Kent, or something, but short of that I don't see any realistic route to recovery from where he is now.

Tony EH

@Peregrinus None of the Prime Ministers who reached the nadir of approval that Johnson is now at recovered sufficiently to win another election with the exception of Margaret Thatcher, and her turnaround was the result of the invasion of the Falklands War.

That was only her first turnaround in 1982. She had another in 1986 and again in 1991, up from her worst rating (and one of the worst ratings of all time) after the poll tax fiasco.

However the Ukraine crisis plays out it cannot have the same result

I don't think anyone is trying to say that it will be. The Ukraine flash in the pan isn't the same thing as the Falklands however. But it's not beyond the realms of reality that something else entirely could come along and save Johnson's bacon. It's not only conflicts that focus the minds of the party faithful.

Thing is, there's little to choose from in the Tory party at the moment as a viable successor to BoJo. If there was, he'd have been ousted before now. He is, more than likely, "toast" in the long term (as unquantifiable as that appears to be at present). But I also wouldn't be a bit surprised if he managed to see this particular episode out in some fashion. He's, throughout his career, shown a remarkable ability to fail upwards in the most spectacular way.

Peregrinus

I'll give you 1986. But Thatcher did not recover sufficiently from her 1991 depths to win - or, indeed, to fight - another election. The party dumped her precisely because they recognised she could not win.

As for Johnson, I agree that he may not be shafted in the next few weeks, or even in the next few months. He could limp on for a while. But his authority is gone, and will not return. His appeal to the party is gone. Thus he can achieve nothing; he will be wholly preoccupied with not being dumped by the party, and he can deliver on no policy to which any section of the party is not signed up. Which means, basically, there is virtually no policy he can deliver on. Everything he is going to achieve in his premiership, he has already achieved. In that sense, he is toast.

(Which may be an acceptable outcome to him - as far as I can see he wants to be Prime Minister, but not in order to achieve any particular goal other than being Prime Minister. He has no policy agenda to which is committed, nothing that he particularly wants to achieve. Most PMs would find a premiership in which they had to devote themselves full-time to clinging to office a frustrating, depressing and ultimately unacceptable business, and if they saw no end to it they would quit. But, for Johnson, being PM is the reason he became PM; he may be happy enough to continue in office on those terms.)

Tony EH

@Peregrinus I'll give you 1986. But Thatcher did not recover sufficiently from her 1991 depths to win - or, indeed, to fight - another election.

I didn't say that she did. But her approval rating still went up from a massive, massive, nadir (a 50 year low). Much worse than the one Johnson is at right now in fact. Ditto with John Major, who managed to crawl upwards from an equally low approval rating.

As for Johnson, I agree that he may not be shafted in the next few weeks, or even in the next few months. He could limp on for a while. But his authority is gone, and will not return. His appeal to the party is gone.

This is certainly true, as of today, but Johnson has weathered storms before. In fact, he's weathered storms and STILL managed to reach the highest office of the land.

As to why he wants to be PM, that's somewhat a mystery to practically everyone. But he's been groomed for political position since his Eton days. It's all just amusement to him really, cos there's no danger for him. He's became PM mostly by opportune circumstance and once that's gone, he'll just step back into a "lesser" role and carry on. It won't phase him. But instead of repeating an opinion, I'll just refer you back to what I said at the beginning of the thread.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118308642/#Comment_118308642

Peregrinus

Approval always goes up from the nadir. That's pretty much the definition of "nadir", if you think about it.

But that's no help at all. Approval has to go up to a point where an election victory becomes possible. If that doesn't happen, Johnson is toast (in the sense we have discussed). And I don't see any realistic path to it happening.

FWIW, I think if Johnson limps on, that will suit the Labour party quite well. Of all the characteristics that the opinion polls measure for the various political parties, approval of the leader is the one which has the biggest gap between Labour and the Tories. The longer Johnson is the face of the Tories, the better for Labour. And while the lack of an attractive alternative leader may be one of the things that helps Johnson cling on for the time being, at some point the party will conclude that a leader without any qualities would be less damaging to them electorally than a leader with Johnson's qualities.

Tony EH

@Peregrinus Approval always goes up from the nadir. That's pretty much the definition of "nadir", if you think about it.

That's not really the point. The thing is Johnson has further to fall before he reaches the depths that both Thatcher and Major sunk to. At the moment he's at -40. He's got around another 20 points to sink. Of course, that could happen over the next few weeks. Or, something could come his way for him to capitalise on. His approval could go up from roughly where it is now and there'll be a different story in a few months. That's not an impossible scenario. We'll have to wait and see.

What's saving his bacon at the moment is the lack of a credible stand in. The very fact that the likes of Liz Truss is being touted says it all really.

As for Labour, there's no doubt that they're happy that Johnson is "the face of the Tories" without a doubt. But Labour's capital on that is rather minimal really because they're in an awful state themselves with their crippling infighting. Keir Starmer? Pfft. There's nothing going on there, irrespective of Johnson's shortcomings.

To be honest, I don't think Labour could even win a GE if one was called in the morning and Johnson was still the leader of the Conservatives.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557778#Comment_118557778

But when have you ever seen a PM's ratings go up sufficiently to offset Johnson's current unpopularity? You'd need a disaster for him to lead the nation through and given that he's presided over more than 150,000 deaths from covid and created another disaster for his own personal gain, that avenue is closed. He's wasted everything on defending the idea that he is above the rules.

Thatcher had an incompetent Labour party and the Falklands war while Blair had a toxic Tory party as his opposition. Keir Starmer is much more of a statesman than Johnson will ever be.

May was defenestrated because she couldn't deliver on all of the mutually exclusive things the Brexiters wanted. Johnson, by contrast ditched the expendable Brexiters at the first opportunity. That's all it was.

Annasopra

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118499735#Comment_118499735

Thats kinda why Keir Starmer isnt that popular. Because he's boring.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118557965#Comment_118557965

Well, I'm old enough to remember all the talk about John Major being "toast" and yet he managed to not only go back up in ratings, but also beat Neil Kinnock in a general election too, a general election in which Labour was slated to win IIRC. The Conservative victory in 1992 came a surprise to an awful lot of people.

The basic point I'm making here is that political Mystic Megs are often mistaken and it's usually better not to try and predict any outcome at all, especially when history (even recent history) has shown that to be the folly that it is. The very fact that Boris Johnson became PM at all is a testament to just how volatile politics can be and very few things are an absolute certainty.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118558174#Comment_118558174

I'm not predicting that the Tories can't win in 2023/2024. I'm saying that Johnson is in extra time as leader of the party. If the reopening is a success and further lockdowns are avoided, people are going to start questioning the Brexit deal he made so much of a fuss of. He can lie all he wants but it won't save him. Nor will any of his toxic creatures.