General Irish politics discussion thread

L1011

So Sunak jumped because he realised none of his "things that might buy votes" list could happen. Interest rates aren't coming down, unless they interfered with the politically independent BoE. There's no more money coming in for tax cuts. And the Rwanda flights can't happen in time (if ever); plus it isn't stopping the boat crossings anyway. There was not one single way they could try convince voters to come back to them.

Over here, the opposite situation is in place - they'd probably want to hang on to the last day and go longer if there was any legal method to do so; because there is headroom to improve polling in that time.

There is money for tax cuts, at least temporarily. Housing starts are up significantly and there's a lot of very large apartment developments near complete in Dublin at least. And the main opposition party have hit a wall and may veer off one direction to target specific voters and shed the floating voters back to Government or other opposition parties.

Water John

There is a wide range of voting options, esp in the local elections here this time. More right wing and against the mainstream candidates of all descriptions. The results will be interesting and a good detailed analysis will offer a lot of insight. Much more so than polls.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174981#Comment_122174981

Yeah but given the way politics works in this country, that could cost them more votes outside Dublin than win them votes in Dublin…

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122176120#Comment_122176120

The "dem up in dubberlin" crowd have never voted Green anyway

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122176120#Comment_122176120

It's a reasonable (and infuriating) point, though I guess those people so inclined would be angry at the concept of the project and the fact they haven't been able to get anything actually done. I think ultimately having shovels in the ground on such a huge project is a positive on the whole and there is still a good chance they can do that before the election.

Ultimately, thing weren't going to get any better in the UK, things might here. So I wouldn't see them rushing into an election.

Water John

Our country, is in a much better place than the UK. There is no comparison. Crack the affordable housing conundrum and try and improve health access and it will not be a bad place to live.

Brussels Sprout

I'm actually pleasantly surprised to read that more women than ever are putting themselves forward for election. Given the abuse that many sitting female politicians have received I thought we might see a drop off in numbers.

source

Pete_Cavan

Later this year we might be looking at contract signings for the M21 Adare Bypass and M28 to Ringaskiddy, with the last section of N5 currently being upgraded, so the government could have a decent regional spread of infrastructural projects. Also works happening at Galway Ceannt Station as well as commuter rail network upgrades in Cork. Lots of improved bus services all over the country too.

There are a lot of housing units under construction and the government will want to get as many sets of keys hanhanded over as possible. The National Children's Hospital has obviously been a source of negative headlines but if fit out works are happening, they'll at least have something to show.

Time is the government parties friend but I wouldn’t be convinced that the SF decline will be a trend for too long. If they hold off on the GE for too long, SF might regain some of the ground they seem to have lost. Hard to know what impact the Local/European Elections will have, if the government parties get a spanking some of the spankers may be happy to go back to them, but if all these small parties split the anti-government vote, SF may be able to put forward a better case for high transfers to go to them.

LetticebCivil

Look at the Louth FG candidate for the type of candidate in our two main parties. Disgusting

Water John

The two main parties ATM are SF and FG. I presume those are the ones your referring to?

LetticebCivil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195728#Comment_122195728

The two main parties in our government. One of them is not SF

Water John

Oh, sorry for misunderstanding your post. I would agree, anybody accepting such payments shouldn't stand for public office. I don't know of any political party (but there are so many now), who'd tolerate such behaviour.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122174981#Comment_122174981

If FG continue to grow in the polls incrementally and SF continue their decline, or they further stagnate, Harris will go immediately after the budget. The big clue will be the budget date, if it's moved then the election is imminent. If he holds on until Jan/Feb there are all the usual issues around weather, dark nights etc but the longer they wait, the more chance there is for something to go wrong, and they run out of time and have to have an election in circumstances not of their choosing.

Water John

Oct/Nov probably a better bet. New leader, fresh mandate is a reasonable excuse.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195805#Comment_122195805

Matt Cooper in his podcast last week said he's heard late October/early November. This is based on the pre budget submission date being brought forward to allow the budget itself be early. The only reason the budget would be early is if they want an election before christmas.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195712#Comment_122195712

To be fair to both parties, the behaviour by the candidate who stood down is not representative of the parties these days, despite what looks like your attempt at point scoring.

That said, if the candidate did get work and money for withdrawing an objection, as per The Ditch, then she is correct to stand down because that type of behaviour is disgusting. Thankfully it will soon be against the law.

LetticebCivil

Recent history would suggest otherwise

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122196016#Comment_122196016

So presumably you can then name other FF & FG politicians who received money or other benefits for withdrawing a planning observation?

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195862#Comment_122195862

The problem there is that if they announce an earlier budget then it gives away the GE date being before Christmas

They will probably try to avoid January as it's typically a time of depressive weather and back to work vibes after Christmas. Not great for getting political points across. My money is on February

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195304#Comment_122195304

I had a SF candidate at my door the other day. I asked them were they getting a hard time at the doorsteps about immigration and he said "Yes. yes we are". I asked him if he thought that those votes would ultimately transfer back to them and he said "Honestly, I don't think so".

For him to say that he must have been getting outright abuse.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122197299#Comment_122197299

I'm surprised at how quickly immigration has become such a vitriol topic.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122197521#Comment_122197521

The media have been shameful in elevating it way beyond it's actual importance. It's unfortunate the pollsters don't really dig into why people are 'concerned'.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122197521#Comment_122197521

I think it's been a perfect storm:

• a vicious housing crisis
• a cost of living crisis due to large inflation
• networks formed during the Pandemic on sites like Telegram where people have been primed to believe all sorts of hateful stuff (basically the CA forum on this site but with absolutely no moderation)
• A government shoe-horning considerable numbers migrants into small rural communities where services are already under pressure
• Tents popping up in Dublin city centre filled with new arrivals to the country

We already had lots of protests a year ago but the stabbing in Dublin in November was the match that really ignited things.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122197634#Comment_122197634

Dublin already had tents even before the refugees arrived. The refugee promise feels like the straw that broke the camel's back, and from there it was far-right playbook.

pleasant Co.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122196066#Comment_122196066

Is that specifically what you're looking for, or is it disgusting behaviour leading to benefits in general? I mean, why limit it to contrived planning objections? We can see disgraced Maria Bailey (FG) who tried to extort the Dean hotel due to her own idiocy, or hey, why not Simon Coveney (FG) who wanted to offer a lucrative crony position to Katherine Zappone? Both examples of deplorable behaviour, and to be fair there's not a shortage of examples but those 2 were quite prevalent in the media.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122197521#Comment_122197521

I think external influence is peddling the classic rhetoric that everything would be fabulous if it wasn't for the Brown People taking away those houses, jobs, etc etc. As @Brussels Sprout aludes to, the strain caused by unrelated economic and social issues has only played into the hands of the bad faith merchants

LetticebCivil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122196066#Comment_122196066

A simple google search will give you any info you need on FF/FG members who have crossed the rubicon.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122199346#Comment_122199346

So I've to research your claim? That's not how it works!

LetticebCivil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122201870#Comment_122201870

It t is a fact not a claim. Burke Ahearn Haughey and Lowry should be enough to start your research

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122202862#Comment_122202862

Given your original post (which I replied to), which of the politicians that you've mentioned are a "candidate in our two main parties"?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122195712#Comment_122195712

So let me ask you again, can you name other FF & FG politicians who received money or other benefits for withdrawing a planning observation?