General Irish politics discussion thread

FrancieBrady

You'd really have to wonder what is going on in FF.

Is Martin in control?

Why would he allow this to happen now and effectively unleash a rerun of The Mahon Tribunal and the esposure of FF ethics that decimated the party electorally?

Barry Cowen was also on DriveTime absolutely praising Ahern to the rooftops and then went on to defend Leo Varadkar on his about face on Ahern. Very strange goings on.

Water John

You think there's mood music being played here, Francie?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221485#Comment_120221485

Genuinely baffled tbh. Lame duck leader?

Water John

At least we know who the leader is.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120221681#Comment_120221681

Cowen, the backbenchers?

Certainly odd that a leader who was in Cabinet during those years would want it all raked up again.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120195975#Comment_120195975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120214432#Comment_120214432

Serious question - are you a member of FG? FF?

astrofool

Never been a fan of or would vote for Ahern and he probably should have been charged for what came out of the Mahon tribunal (remembering that we voted against giving more powers in this area to the oireachtas and the burden of proof required would likely have meant he walked off scott free anyway).

However, the realpolitik is that a lot of people like Ahern and associate him with pension and wage payouts and a long running boom that he didn't get tarnished with when the bust occurred (and we voted FF back in anyway rather than let a more normal party like Labour hoover up the populist votes).

A lot of people online won't like it but he'll end up an asset at election times even if you don't like him (and I'd point at the vitriol Varadker receives when he's as plain a politician as you can get).

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120231078#Comment_120231078

It won't add one vote to FF, and it will turn the stomachs of anyone who was thinking of giving them a vote again.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120231078#Comment_120231078

He might be an asset alright if he is limited to back room stuff like planning and whatnot but the fact that he was coy about running for President was fairly enlightening.

I'd imagine Michael Martin had to give it the green light for him to be readmitted. I wonder is there a vague plan there for him. I can't see any universe where Bertie could win a Presidential election (but Michael Martin himself definitely could).

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120234093#Comment_120234093

They're opening themselves up to an awful lot of potential flack for maybe some "back room stuff like planning".

Strikes me more as the party continuing to yearn back to a time that is gone from them. They will never be the natural party of government ever again (hopefully no one will), bringing back Bertie won't change that.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120234564#Comment_120234564

After reading a lot of comment on this I think it's as crass as not wanting to be in the shadow when it comes to the photo ops around the GFA anniversary. Ahern and FF don't have much in their recent history to point to as a success after all.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120234613#Comment_120234613

Be grateful for small mercies though, at least they did nor murder gardai or engage in bank robberies or fundraise to arm a private secret terrorist army.

FrancieBrady

While elements of the media try to cheerlead Bertie's second coming as something Irish politics needs or welcomes, it's good to see that there are those objecting to him being lionised without accountability.

The current Taoiseach's willingness to forget what he did has copperfastened the idea that FG and FF have indeed merged in all but name.

Indistinguishable now.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/absolutely-farcical-dcu-faces-backlash-over-honorary-doctorate-for-bertie-ahern-42338381.html

Seth Brundle

mod: @Francis McM - next attempt to make this about the IRA will result in a ban.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120234564#Comment_120234564

They can yearn all they want but that man would be unelectable in a Presidential election - which is the only option he has available to him politically. The key voting demographic of 45-60 year-olds were the generation who were burned most severely in the crash and quite a lot of them associate him with that and nothing else.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120236293#Comment_120236293

I completely agree but there is still an element in FF that thinks they belong back in their pre 09 electoral position. I’m shocked it was allowed as there is nothing but downside to it as far as I can see.

Brussels Sprout

The Irish Examiner are reporting that the next Dáil will have an increase of between 18-20 additional seats. This is to bring the T.D. per capita figure back to the constitutionally mandated range of 1 per 20-30k people. They are also reporting that the rules limiting constituencies to between 3 and 5 seats will remain in place.

Personally I think the beneficiaries of all these extra seats could well be the exact same TDs that got elected last time in the places where SF didn't run enough candidates. In that election massive SF surpluses ended up electing other left-wing candidates. SF are unlikely to make the same mistake twice so I think a lot of those candidates would have been very venerable. If there is now going to be a new seat in their constituency then that may save them though.

The making and breaking of constituencies will also be a major factor. 5-seater constituencies are better for smaller parties whereas 3-seater constituencies traditionally favour the larger parties.

The CSO are due to publish the full details of last year's census in a few months time and then the new Electoral Commission will decide the new constituencies, based on that, a month or two after that (sometime in early summer I believe).

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120237021#Comment_120237021

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Take Donegal for example. Splitting into two 3-seaters could see SF take 4 out of 6 with a small increase on 2020. Pringle could lose out but his transfers elect the second SF candidate. On the other hand, a small decrease could see them take only 2 out of 6.

All around the country you could see similar issues. Dublin West going to a 5-seater could see O'Gorman keep his seat and the last seat be a dogfight between FG and SF with the result dependent on which part of the constituency the extra voters come from. Small possibility of someone else sneaking in.

Brussels Sprout

Yeah the Irish times political correspondents were saying that the redrawing of the boundaries is a hot topic in Leinster House at the moment. Somebody always gets screwed over when half their base gets put into the adjoining constituency (I remember it happening to Jerry Buttimer in 2016 in Cork South Central when a huge section of his base, in the west of the constituency, was transferred to Cork North Central).

Thankfully we have an independent commission along with a set of guiding principles so it's all above board unlike far too many states in the USA where some of the politicians themselves get to draw their own constituencies.

Sam Russell

Of course, they could have a Constitutional Amendment to fix the number of Dail seats set for all time, or go for a smaller ratio.

The USA has only 100 senate seats.

VinLieger

Its going to be a really hard sell to get a referendum passed to effectively reduce representation. People will point to the UK saying they have 90k constituents per MP vs our 30k per TD but I really fail to see how that's a good argument for it passing beyond being a whataboutery argument. The best way of pushing for it imo is showing how much more it will cost taxpayers to keep adding TDs based on current limits.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120237339#Comment_120237339

Strangely enough the US Senate is in a similar situation to the Dáil - in that it has a variable number of seats set by a (more rigid) rule defined in the constitution. In its case it doesn't expand when the population of the country goes up but when the number of states does. If Puerto Rico and D.C. ever join then it'll have 104 seats.

I take your meaning though and yes I think that is what will likely happen in the end. Perhaps we will have a referendum to fix it at a nice round 200 seats at some time in the future.

Larbre34

The State needs a new Constitution as we near the centenary of the first.

Quite a lot of provisions are now out of date or have been amended many times and are somewhat messy.

We are holding really useful Assemblies on many aspects of the State and society, which nearly always seem to result in some recommendation of constitutional change.

But that process is very bitty, it would be far better to hold a new constitutional convention, over maybe 5 years, to arrive at a new document entirely, fit to define The Second Republic for the rest of the Century.

And I think the biggest challenge will be to remove from the Constitution altogether, those subjects which are better suited to legislation and leave, or add those aspects which define the pillars of the State, to protect its fundamentals and the people who exist under its umbrella.

Hotblack Desiato

There's an awful lot of totally outdated rubbish in there, apparently a woman's place is still in the home and we are all obliged to worship "almighty god" whoever that is. Meanwhile vastly wealthy religious bodies invoke the constitution to protect that wealth from the consequences of their crimes, yet still have overbearing influence over taxpayer-funded education.

Brussels Sprout

I see Denis Naughton has announced he'll be retiring at the end of this term. It's a bit of a strange one. He's only 49. He even managed to serve as a minister after leaving FG which was quite the feat, and unlike quite a few of those other independent ministers he didn't lose his seat 2020 (in fact he got elected handily enough). He didn't give any particular reason although reading in between the lines of this quote perhaps he has a job lined up:

decided, for both personal and professional reasons, after giving 26 years of my life to national politics that now is the time to step back and explore new opportunities

In a sign of how Roscommon has been chopped and changed in constituency terms with each passing boundary revision he thanked "the people of counties Longford, Leitrim, Galway and Roscommon for their support".

markodaly

https://twitter.com/Ballymagash_T/status/1626863869460185090

This could be a major scandal for SF.

For all the talk about a few hundred euros here and there not declared for Pascal, 313,000 euros unaccounted for?

We all know SF are the wealthiest party in the state and treats the island of Ireland as two separate jurisdictions to get around Irish Law. Partitionist by nature.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120259880#Comment_120259880

SIPO will probably say they have 'no role' to investigate this and run away from it.

There should of course be a sanction if it is found to be true. But we know to our cost SIPO have not been allowed to have the proper powers.

treats the island of Ireland as two separate jurisdictions to get around Irish Law. Partitionist by nature.

P.S> With FG making way in their rules to start a NI party it will be interesting to see how they propose to comply with regs. Will they just ignore the NI ones and comply with here or vice versa? Or will they comply with both jurisdictions by having two separate parties for administration purposes - which of course, is the only way to stay legal in both of those jurisdictions.

FrancieBrady

I can see this becoming yet another damaging story for the government and 'we didn't know' isn't going to cut it.

Write downs of this magnitude are an obscenity for ordinary people who faced the full rigour of the law if they couldn't repay.

https://twitter.com/SaturdayRTE/status/1626936922873511938

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260262#Comment_120260262

I can see this becoming yet another damaging story for the government and 'we didn't know' isn't going to cut it.

Why not?

Do you think the government are made aware of these internal decisions made by AIB? Do you have any proof that the government were made aware of this decision to write down this debt? If not, then its pure speculation.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260221#Comment_120260221

SIPO will probably say they have 'no role' to investigate this and run away from it.

Did you not read the article where it said that SIPO are investigating the complaints and faces an investigation into its election spending conducts?

I am glad though that the people who decry the 'power swap' are openly ok with SF being even more dishonest when it comes to party finances. "Do as I say, not as I do"

I take it you wont vote for SF if these matters are not clarified Francie ;)

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260602#Comment_120260602

If you owned 56% of a company...how would any regulator or judge treat you if you claimed 'you didn't know what was going on in that company'?

How do you think any company making that claim should be dealt with?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260621#Comment_120260621

Article is behind a paywall.

What I can see is that it says 'SF 'faces' an investigation.

Have SIPO confirmed that an investigation is underway? Can you quote them please?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260648#Comment_120260648

If I owned 56% of a company I would not expect to be briefed on every single decision made within that company because that would be insanity.

Its clearly bad governance by AIB, but I strongly suspect those who will chastise the government over it are the same people who would chastise the government for interference were they to be more involved.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260746#Comment_120260746

Even if it involved policies of writing off 9 million euro's?

Not buying that one and I don't think most people, who face the full rigours if they don't repay, would either.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260761#Comment_120260761

Banks write off debts all the time. This write-off looks dodgy as ****, but do you genuinely think this kind of thing gets flagged up to the BOD? And the govt were like "cool, great guy, played GAA let's let him have it".

People should 100% be annoyed at this, but trying to bring it back round to the govt, who are as much as possible silent partners in the company, is absurd.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260904#Comment_120260904

So who does or should have oversight if this is as 'dodgy as f*'?

My view would be those who have a 56% stake in the operation and who will ultimately foot the bill for this.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260936#Comment_120260936

The management of the company, who may well face consequences now.

There is almost zero chance anyone in govt even knew about this.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260971#Comment_120260971

How do you know that?

there is more information required here.

Water John

That there above is a lesson for any one in whataboutery.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260262#Comment_120260262

I found this story infuriating but my immediate reaction wasn't to blame the government and I doubt it will be more most people either. God knows there are plenty of things to be bashing them over right now without having to reach for things like this.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120260979#Comment_120260979

Because I work in a 50% publicly owned company and I'm fully aware of the kind of thing that makes it to the Board and what doesn't.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120261727#Comment_120261727

AIB have been called before the Finance Committee by a member of the government. Fact.

That to me smacks of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

They want oversight after the fact. Would it not be in the taxpayers interest for them to have oversight before the event or established policy on these things?

Reactive again instead of being proactive...no bother of course putting strategies in place for other costs to the taxpayer where a certain cohort lose out.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120261948#Comment_120261948

This is oversight.

Oversight does not mean micromanaging everything the company gets up to. Writing off debt and taking haircuts is something banks do on a pretty regular basis - you can not possibly have every such scenario making its way up to board level.

I suspect there is policy on these things and its simply been ignored in this scenario. It happens frequently and punishment by definition has to come after the fact.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120262014#Comment_120262014

Last word on this.

If this was 'normal' why the hell is a government minister wanting questions asked? Why isn't your handwaving not satisfactory for the government? Quite clearly this type of write off is considered wrong by the very government administering our stake in the bank and there was no 'taxpayer protection strategy' in place.

We'll see how it pans out, but I stick by my contention that this will be damaging.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120262079#Comment_120262079

I never said it was normal, I said the exact opposite.

I think its utterly absurd to blame this on the govt simply because they are a majority shareholder.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120262079#Comment_120262079

What, just like Paschal's posters would be damaging?

And just like Bertie rejoining his local FF Cumann would be damaging?

Bad news for you Francie, ordinary people know well what are important issues and what are not.

AIB will have written down Carey's debt based on what they felt they could get. If they hadn't accepted 60k, he'd have taken bankruptcy and they have got €0. I'm not saying these decisions should not be subject to scrutiny under a robust set of regulations, but if people like Doherty think AIB are going to stroll into a Dáil Committee and answer questions about dealings with a private individual, then they're dumber than they look.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120263450#Comment_120263450

Dara Calleary and Neale Richmond have also called for them to answer questions at committee.

Larbre34

They ought to know better and all.

On another day, they'd probably be on the phone day and night to a bank, fighting the case of some constituent in the same boat.

Just because Carey is well known doesn't mean its right for his bank dealings to be debated in public or in Parliament, at least insofar as they aren't already a matter of record in the Courts.

Theres a conflation here between this AIB write-down and other allegations floating about in the ether. Justice will take its course in its own good time.

But it amazes me that people like all three TDs above and more, don't seem to have learned anything from the Angela Kerins case.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120263538#Comment_120263538

What they need to find out on behalf of the taxpayer can be found out without going into the specifics of one person's dealings. They can do this on our behalf or stand back and let it drip out in the media.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120263450#Comment_120263450

Well thats just not true, AIB chased Ivan Yates out of the country by trying to make an example of him and got nothing close to what they could have if they had been willing to negotiate. They are criminally inconsistent when it comes to debt relief.