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General Irish politics discussion thread

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    #4592
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,472 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122403233#Comment_122403233

    McEntee is also safe as houses now that ME has gained a seat. The kind of controversies she has endured rarely cut through at constituency level anyway. SF would have been fancied to take the fourth seat but with them slumping it might go to someone out of leftfield (or rightfield). Can't see it being Keogan though…



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    #4593
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,891 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122404049#Comment_122404049

    Aontu could take O'Gorman's seat, they got three councillors in Dublin West in the locals.

    5 seats in Dublin West. Leo stepping down.

    Donnelly (SF), Chambers (FF), Currie (FG), with the last two seats between Walsh (Labour), Coppinger (Ind?), Aontu (don't think they have selected yet), O'Gorman (Greens) and possibly a second FF or SF candidate.

    As for McEntee, you need 25% first preferences to get elected in a three-seater. In the locals, FG got 22% in Ashbourne LED, 31% in Kells LED, 27.4% in Laytown/Bettystown, 22.1% in Ratoath. Not sure which of those in Meath East, but should be enough, so long as she is the only candidate.

    Edit: Meath East has gone to a four-seater, so hard to see McEntee losing out, they may run a sweeper candidate.

    Agree about Harris.



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    #4594
    pureza
    Registered Users Posts: 1,360 ✭✭✭pureza


    Fine Gael are in a bit of a quandry in Wicklow in that one of their potential 3 candidates sweeps up a lot of votes in the south of the county but lives in the 4 seater,losing voters to the new wicklow wexford constituency

    Of the 5 incumbents there,the green is toast I'd say,Brady and Harris will be top of the poll

    The new Wicklow wexford 3 seater will be 1 FF,1 FG and either 1 SF or one independent ,being Pier Leonard if she stands ?



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    #4595
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,203 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122407300#Comment_122407300

    Given SF's reversal in fortunes lately I wouldn't think that they'll be topping many polls. They seems to have lost large sections of their former base. They appear to have recognised this fact in a recent review where they acknowledged that their stance on immigration was at odds with many of their former voters.

    The thing is, if they change their stance in immigration they may lose some of the younger middle class vote that they've picked up more recently. 2020 seemed to be the sweet spot where they managed to retain both groups. From here on in they may need to choose between one or the other.



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