General Irish politics discussion thread

Rosahane

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122417091#Comment_122417091

Ah, come on. You can’t come on here and talk sense… you’ll be guilty of shinnerphobia😝

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122434908#Comment_122434908

Very much so. They will get less money from day 1 as they currently get two independent allowances.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122434908#Comment_122434908

Yes, and they'll have problem with electoral funding too.

Water John

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122434908#Comment_122434908

Michael will have to become Michela Collins😉

marno21

Michael Ring standing down at the next election for Fine Gael.

Now 14 the number of FG TDs not running, likely 15 when Joe Carey presumably announces he won't be standing again.

It's getting to the stage now where Harris can run a "fresh faces" campaign.

Brussels Sprout

There was talk of Ring's daughter running in his place. No shortage of FGers in Mayo anyway. They once had 4 TDs there!

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122444070#Comment_122444070

Not really a standout candidate to run alongside Dillon though. They won't be over-confident of taking a second seat…

corkie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122443532#Comment_122443532

This adds up to a total of 30 TDs not running again out of the total 160 – 18% of the current crop. ~ source

^^ Number across all parties.

L1011

I can't see Bernard Durkan staying now that the other grandee in the constituency has stepped down (Catherine Murphy). Last time out there were three relatively elderly candidates (them and Emmet Stagg); now he'll stand out as being Very Very Old.

tayto lover

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122443532#Comment_122443532

I just saw that. 15 not running. Is there some bit of a scandal coming that they are leaving in droves I wonder?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122445653#Comment_122445653

Most are old, got their pensions, don't want the hassle of running in what's an increasingly hostile environment to run in. Plenty of freshly re-elected councillors to take their place so less likely to be accused of losing FG a seat if they go now versus previous elections.

Brussels Sprout

Of the ones that are not old - you'll find that a lot of them were demoted when FG went into the current coalition government. They probably saw a future of either being in opposition or continuing to be a back benchers and thought that it just wasn't worth the hassle, abuse and time away from their families.

Larbre34

And so the latest Opinion Poll is to be published in the Sunday Indo tomorrow, prepared by Ireland Thinks.

FG 24% FF 20%

SF 19% INDs 18%

SDs 5% Lab 4% Aon 4% Grn 4% SPBP 2%

A clear indication now that FG and FF will be able to form a coherent government of the Centre, of probably 90+ seats between them, and likely the support of gene pool independents. 63% of Poll respondents expect this to be the case.

The Taoiseach and Tánaiste are the most popular Party leaders, respectively.

In February of this year, the equivalent Poll showed 47% opining that Mary Lou McDonald would be Taoiseach in the next Dáil. That has now fallen precipitously to 20%.

48% believe that Mr Harris will lead the new government.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122460874#Comment_122460874

It certainly looks good for FF & FG right now.

Something to consider though is that a recent analysis showed that the majority of people only made their mind up for who to vote for in the local & Euro elections in the final week.

SF were able to turn things around in the campaign of 2020. Honestly I can't imagine they'll be able to do that again this time around. Nonetheless I'd be holding off on the FF/FG coronation just yet.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122460874#Comment_122460874

It really highlights to me that there's clearly a gigantic gap between the outsized noise of online agitation, and the pragmatic opinions of ... well. I don't wanna say "real" people because that lessens the kind of legitimate anger out there, which there clearly is … but perhaps those not trapped in social media echo chambers sucked into obsessing over every perceived issue as The Biggest Issue.

Maybe it's not a great reflection of Irish democracy right now: 'cos while our system of voting is fairly robust and fair, there's obviously not a strong enough opposition or alternative option for the voters to try. You could write a whole book on why SF can't clamber over the top and into Kildare St. proper - but the upshot is the voters are clearly allergic to whatever it is SF is selling.

mehico

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122468409#Comment_122468409

Has there ever really been a strong alternative option in opposition prior to around 2020? The 2020 election had the 3 main parties within about 3 or 4% of each other.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122469763#Comment_122469763

There was a very brief period of polling in 2010 that had Labour in first, ahead of FG and significantly ahead of FF

Shifted strongly to FG by the time of the polling date though.

yagan

Well another term in bed with each other will make ff/fg indistinguishable for whole generations.

Our middle aged demographic bulge suggests they'll hold up, but pretending they represent different blocs will be hard to defend.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122469763#Comment_122469763

Labour pre-2011. If they had stayed out of that government I reckon we'd have FG/Labour/SF as the 3 medium sized parties, but that ship has long sailed now.

As it stands, the only real options I see for the next while will be whether FF + FG need a small party (e.g. Labour, Greens, Soc Dems) or a few independents to get into power.

pixelburp

Is there any strong sense why SF are so incapable of putting themselves over that top? Seems like at this stage they won't repeat the result of getting most 1st preference votes the rate they're dropping support - but why? It can't all be put at the feet of immigration, so have their fantasy economics just made them look too Mickey Mouse?

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122470038#Comment_122470038

I wonder is part of it that they are not really clear on their policies on a lot of things still - they come across as populist and just going with whatever the popular option is at any particular time?

There's also the issue of their history that I think will still keep people from voting for them no matter what. Regardless of their policies, some people will not vote for a party that still commemorates fallen volunteers from the troubles period. That is obviously less of an issue that it had been previously, but it's still there (it's one of the reasons I couldn't vote for them as an example).

Finally, I think they still have an issue with their ground game - a lot of Sinn Féin TDs remain anonymous even after being in the Dáil for 4.5 years now…

Sam Russell

The trouble with being a populist is that you chase issue and try to give the popular view with an ill thought out policy to match.

That works for a while until todays popular policy is unpopular with those who were given yesterday's popular policy. Being populist only works for a finite period, then it has to become authoritarian.

Basically, the party is running out of road - or money - to be popular.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122468409#Comment_122468409

It remains to be seen how much "anger" there really is. Most people I talk to every day are perfectly calm and relaxed and just going about their day to day lives. The angry ones are those out on the fringes and extremes, but these are the types who favour violence, vigilantism, confrontation etc, all the while flooding social media with their hate filled nonsense from anonymous accounts.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122469806#Comment_122469806

I don't think FF and FG are pretending they represent different blocs, I'd say it is fact - FG more right of centre, FF more to the left.

Do they really have to "defend" them being different parties? It has been the case for a century now.

And is it even a problem having two similar yet different parties? The electorate have their choice of them or multiple others. Most people clearly want to vote for centrist parties, I think it is better that those votes are spread between two different parties rather than one. Having one such centrist party would not be good, if people lost faith in it, they may look at more extreme options as the alternative. I'd say having two strong centrist parties is a big benefit for Ireland.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122470667#Comment_122470667

Finally, I think they still have an issue with their ground game - a lot of Sinn Féin TDs remain anonymous even after being in the Dáil for 4.5 years now…

I'd say the reason why a lot of Sinn Féin TDs remain anonymous after being in the Dáil for 4.5 years is because SF want them to be fairly anonymous.

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122470038#Comment_122470038

Everyone knows the reason, but if you repeat the reason you will be hopped upon and abused by rabid "see no evil" segment of their party.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479124#Comment_122479124

Is the reason their historical links with the IRA? Or a perceived current link with the IRA? (I'm not sure)

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122479533#Comment_122479533

Noone other than decided voters are considering the IRA when looking at potentially voting SF

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122486513#Comment_122486513

Ya, I'm trying to figure out what @paul71 was implying...

zell12

The party is hoping to repeat the success of celebrity candidate Cynthia O Murichu’s Euro election. It’s understood the news will not go down well with the party locally

https://connachttribune.ie/speculation-tv-presenter-grainne-seoige-may-run-for-fianna-fail-in-galway-west-in-general-election/