General Irish politics discussion thread

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122470038#Comment_122470038

There are two issues, why Sinn Fein is failing to attract additional voters, and why it is losing those who voted for it the last time. There are a number of overlapping issues and problems that they need to address.

The leadership question: MLMD is a tired leader, lacking in energy, lacking in personality. A negative person, suited for a particular time, which has now come and gone. MM has grown into leadership as Taoiseach while FG, Greens, SDs and Labour have all changed leaders since the last election. The opportunity to change has probably come and gone, but it was an opportunity missed.

Populism in the post-Covid era: In the 2020 general election, there was a lot of dissatisfaction and the electorate were angry. This resulted in SF getting a huge boost. Since then, we have had Covid, one of the consequences was a shift in the electorate's understanding. Previously, the government would always be blamed for everything. Covid helped people realise that sometimes the government could do nothing about the circumstances that the country found itself in. The Ukraine crisis reinforced this view, and the electorate has shifted away from populist slogans to asking who is most competent to resolve issues. Sinn Fein falls short here as the next two issues demonstrate as it has little to offer beyond populist slogans.

Weak Front Bench: SF's front bench is weak. Other than Pearse Doherty and Eoin O'Broin, the rest have no public persona. Even then, those two are not the most engaging, giving off the impression of angry teenage boys rather than the gravitas of future Ministers. Others fail to impress, lacking command of their brief or appearing to be too whingy. The problem is on the backbenches are a heap of idiots who can't be let anywhere near a microphone or a TV camera. There is no sense that SF have competent people ready to take on roles in government.

Policy: If the country is looking for solutions, and your front bench is weak, one area you could try and compensate is by producing robust costed policies. The recent 8-page policy on immigration was laughable, barely distinct from the government's approach, and lacking in details on costs and practicalities. How could lengthy consultation with locals be balanced with the urgency of the response needed? How much would need to be spent on building accommodation for migrants, and why should this be done instead of building for Irish people? MLMD flapped around on even the most basic questions when interviewed. As for the €300k house, there isn't a person in Ireland who believes that to be realistic. Having had 4.5 years since the last election, the Sinn Fein preparedness for government is shockingly poor. It seems that they believed that continuing to rant for the sake of ranting would be sufficient to propel them into government. They have been fighting the last election, not the next one.

Foreign Policy: This is a big problem. Declan Kearney cosying up again to one of Putin's lackeys is the sort of indiscretion we don't see from the major parties. It smells of naivety, of stupidy, of carelessness. Ireland has interests. We must remain close to the West, to protect FDI, to protect the livelihoods of Irish citizens. Getting in bed with Putin is possibly the worst possible thing to do. SF won't be trusted to hold the role of Foreign Minister.

PIRA Legacy: There are those, like myself, who will never be able to vote for Sinn Fein because of the PIRA legacy. However, beyond that, there are two things that are putting other people off voting for Sinn Fein. Firstly, there is the continued commemorations to honour and celebrate murderers and rapists who committed atrocities in living memory, the repeated failure to apologise properly for what the PIRA did, the failure to come clean on how SF is actually run and financed. Secondly, there is the worry out there about whether SF can be trusted to hold the Defence and Justice Ministries. In particular, unresolved allegations of garda collaboration with the PIRA, the need for SF members to consult the party before co-operating with the gardai, and the feelings within the garda ranks about the killing of their colleagues by the PIRA. These issues remain unresolved, and while some like me will never be swayed, others will be swayed if these become things of the past. It remains in SF hands to address these issues, but they won't, as that will be seen as a betrayal of the PIRA.

When you look at all of the above, the conclusion is that there are large swathes of the electorate who will continue to vote for other parties as they do not trust SF. The weaknesses I have identified are not being addressed, and the populist strengths of SF are not carrying a currency in today's Ireland. Something has to change if SF is not to fade back further before the election.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494092#Comment_122494092

Maybe now do FF and FG and tell us why they are only attracting a few more percentage points in current polling?

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494092#Comment_122494092

Apparently David Cullinane in the Health portfolio is held in high regard (yes, the "Up the Ra" guy). They said it on the Irish Times podcast at one stage and I took note since they don't generally go out of their way to praise SF.

Personally I wouldn't vote for them for two main reasons:

1. Their lack of transparency and the complete omerta. I don't think that it is normal or even healthy that you never hear any rumours or dissent leaking from a party. That can only be maintained by severe discipline within the party. The direct result of that have been several allegations of bullying and controlling behaviour from people who have left the party. The leadership campaigns as well have an air of show campaigns (in the case of Michelle O'Neill's contest) or no campaign at all (in MLMD's case). While their IRA past isn't a big issue for me personally (their ceasefire is 30 years ago now) I do think there are certain influences from that era that have bled into that party that make me feel uneasy.
2. Their opposition to property tax, carbon tax and water charges. What kind of self respecting left wing party opposes a property tax? (PBP also do but they're a complete joke.) It's just outright populism and I have no respect for it.

Even though I wouldn't vote for them I think they get an unfair amount of flack, especially given that they've never been in power. The Sunday Independent in particular has been disgracefully biased in their coverage of them for as long as I can remember.

In the end it seems that a bunch of racist twitter accounts seem to have done in a couple of years what the Sunday Independent couldn't do in 20. SF get more grief from those accounts than any of the parties actually responsible for immigration to this country and it seems to be working. Their previous core support base seems to be departing them which leaves them in a complete quandary now.

Augme

Is Harris stupid or does he just think the electorate is? The man who voted and supported the most pro Israeli Commissioner the EU has ever had can't comprehend States pro Israeli stance.

The Taoiseach said he cannot comprehend how some member states in the European Union seem to think those human rights clauses are redundant.

"I just can't get my head around it.

"They are there for a reason and I expect them to be implemented and enforced, and, I reiterate my call for that today."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0811/1464419-ireland-middle-east/

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122494328#Comment_122494328

I don't like FG and I don't like von der Leyen, but you can disagree with somebody on one key policy area but still view them as the best choice for a job. That's politics, it's about compromise.

And fair play to him for making some noise about this - maybe something will happen.

corkie

https://www.mayonews.ie/news/home/1575755/whether-we-like-it-or-not-democracy-is-at-a-crossroads-michael-ring.html

“People are not prepared to get involved in politics, which is a pity because it is serious for democracy. Whether we like it or not democracy is at a crossroads at the moment. Facebook and that stuff is destroying democracy and people’s confidence in politicians,” he said.

Facebook and other social media is a big bugbear for Ring, who fears that misinformation being spread on various online platforms has for too long been left unregulated and needs to be reined in.

“Social media is uncontrolled, and if something is not done at European and world level and at national level then God help young parents today. God help anybody who has young children and the temptation and pressure they are under.

“We don’t know what’s coming into these phones now. Something has to be done to control this. Wait ’til this AI [artificial intelligence] gets further advanced. We won’t know what’s true and what is lies.”

Long article but I think I quoted the point of it from the end. Mayo Fine Gael TD opting out of politics but still sprouting/speaking the party line about social media. They must be scared of been publicly held accountable for the failures in policy. The landscape of politics is changing, and the Youtube prankster, now an MEP, is prime example of the change.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495918#Comment_122495918

He's not opting out, he's retiring. And I don't see anything wrong with what he's saying. The job has gotten extremely toxic, no idea why anybody would want to get involved in elected politics.

Who's the youtube prankster that's now an MEP BTW?

corkie

A Cyprus character, he ran for it as a Prank and got elected.

Fidias: How I Won the European Election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvNazaqjRlM

Tiktok profile.

@dulpit

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495918#Comment_122495918

If you think that social media has been a net benefit for politics or even society then I don't know what to say to you.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122495918#Comment_122495918

You clearly agree with Ring that the landscape of politics is changing because of social media, he believes it is for the worse. You might set out how in an era of unfettered misinformation, manipulation, lies and deceit, how social media is improving political discourse.

FrancieBrady

I wouldn't expect much in the way of any proper accountability as a result of this process, the horse has bolted, so to speak. But fair play to Murphy in seeking to make SIPO accountable and transparent. Hopefully it might help lead to a proper, fully equipped and independent oversight body. Although if the incumbents, who have resisted giving the powers SIPO itself wants, are returned, I won't be holding my breath.

https://www.thetimes.com/world/ireland-world/article/sipo-reopens-investigation-into-leo-varadkar-zj8vwd2cn

corkie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122497701#Comment_122497701

Do not like using him to back up the good points of social media! But if Simon Harris can see them in

Online Safety ~ Tiktok Video. More on that in Tiktok thread.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122498492#Comment_122498492

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/crime/taoiseach-simon-harris-declares-regulatory-war-on-social-media-over-online-hatred-and-racism/a1193494685.html

Strange that he is declaring war on it then.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122496530#Comment_122496530

Would rather have him in there than Daly or Wallace…

zell12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122493716#Comment_122493716

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/grainne-seoige-will-next-week-lodge-papers-seeking-to-run-for-fianna-fail-in-general-election/a2051084690.html

shoo-in

Brussels Sprout

Just looking at Adrian Kavanagh's page for recent candidate selections around the country:

• Cork East - Liam Quaide, Soc Dems
• Cork East - SF moving from a 2 candidate strategy to a single candidate with sitting TD Pat Buckley
• Cork South-Central - Padraig Rice, Soc Dems
• Dublin Mid-West - Shane Moynihan, FF
• Dublin North-West - Conor Reddy PBP
• Dublin Rathdown - Shay Brennan FF
• Dublin West - Breda Hanaphy selected alongside sitting TD Paul Donnelly for SF
• Laois - Elaine Mullaly, formerly of Independent Ireland running as an Independent (wonder what happened there. She's a bit of a conspiracy theorist - wonder did she get booted. Ah ok seems she wasn't happy with Ciaran Mullooly joining the centrist group in the European Parliament and left "as it no longer aligns with my values and principles")
• Limerick City - Sarah Beasley, Aontu
• Louth - Erin McGreehan, FF
• Mayo - Patsy O'Brien, Ind
• Meath East - Caroline O'Reilly selected alongside TD Thomas Byrne for FF
• Tipp South - Sitting TD Martin Browne selected to run again for SF (I had wondered would he get dropped since he's been anonymous in the Dail)
• Waterford - Conor McGuinness joining TD David Cullinane on the SF ticket (with the possibility of a third candidate to be added later on)

Brussels Sprout

I had wondered about Elaine Mullaly ever since I saw her appear on a stream on the night of the local & European elections hosted by the racist academic, Dr. Eoin Lenihan. I thought it odd that someone from Independent Ireland would so brazenly share a stream with candidates from the lunatic far-right (Irish Freedom Party, Irish People party etc). Going by what she said that night she seemed to be quite central in vetting and selecting candidates for Independent Ireland for those elections.

I reckon she'll be no loss to Independent Ireland although John McGuirk disagrees and wrote a long article in Gript lamenting her loss to the party.

 And for what? One gets the distinct impression that an entire political party has been sacrificed on the altar of Ciarán Mullooly’s desire to be able to show his face in the RTE staff canteen as a liberal in good standing.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509608#Comment_122509608

SF running 3 candidates anywhere outside of Donegal would be insanity.

They'll probably do it, then.

corkie

@Brussels Sprout Thanks for the link.

Cork South-Central (5 seats): Cllr. Úna McCarthy (Fine Gael), Cllr. Shane O’Callaghan (Fine Gael), Cllr. Laura Harmon (Labour Party), Cllr. Pádraig Rice (Social Democrats), Anna Daly (Aontú), Monica Oikeh (Green Party)

Was aware of 3 candidates so far, FG & SD. Anna Daly ran in the LE but was unsuccessful. Don't know much about the Labour or Green candidates. I assume Micheál Martin will be here as well. Have FF any other candidate as well?

Laura Harmon is a Councillor on Cork City Council for the Cork City South West ward. She was elected in the 2024 Irish local elections with 1,240 first preference votes, and placed 5th in the seven seat constituency.

https://www.carrigdhoun.com/post/meet-the-candidate-monica-oikeh-green-party

Edit: - Corrected spelling Michael to Micheál

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509845#Comment_122509845

You can probably put your house on FF running Micheál Martin and Seamus McGrath.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509788#Comment_122509788

It would be crazy.

• They ran 4 candidates in the Tramore-Waterford City West LEA in the recent election and only 1 of them got elected.
• They ran 3 in Waterford City East. 2 of those came second last and third last only out-polling the candidate from the Irish People party. The third was elected
• They ran 3 in Portlaw-Kilmacthomas. Again 2 of those came second last and third last only out-polling the candidate from the Irish People party. The third candidate got the final seat.
• They ran 4 in Waterford City South. 2 got elected
• In Dungarvan they ran 3. 1 got elected. The others finished 12th and 13th in a 6-seater

In contrast, in Dungarvan they ran a single candidate and they got just over 1 quota and were elected on the first count in second place.

Waterford is only a 4-seater. Yes, David Cullinane won 2 quotas in 2020 but that appears more and more like the high water mark for them. If they ran 3 candidates they could well fall into the same trap that they did in Donegal in 2016 when they split their own vote and only ended up with 1 seat when they should have won 2.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509845#Comment_122509845

Seems like a strange choice for the Greens given that they have 2 city councillors in the constituency. Perhaps neither of them wanted it since they've just been appointed Lord Mayor and Deputy Lord Mayor. It probably helps the Greens on the gender quota front as well.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509686#Comment_122509686

You thought it odd that II would associate with known racists? I wouldn't think it odd at all…

blackwhite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122509608#Comment_122509608

Very surprised that SF didn’t quietly drop Martin Browne in Tipp.
A TD who shares conspiracy theories that 9-11 was a hoax perpetrated using holograms isn’t exactly the image SF are trying to present

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514738#Comment_122514738

Incumbency is a big factor in getting elected though, and beyond their front bench, the rest are numbers to be marched through the lobbies.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514435#Comment_122514435

I'm not surprised when they're racists, after all it's the secret sauce that binds that party together. I just thought that they'd be cuter about hiding it.

Like everyone knows that Farage is a racist. However he tires to maintain plausible deniability and wouldn't likely go on a podcast hosted by someone like Tommy Robinson.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122514738#Comment_122514738

They don't really have alternatives. They only have 2 councillors in Tipperary out of 40, Labour have the same.

Tipperary has been split and he will now run in Tipperary South. It is definitely a seat at risk and parachuting in a new candidate would be a sure loss for them. Mattie McGrath and Seamus Healy (if he runs) will both take votes from SF.

I think Mattie McGrath is safe, there is a seat for one of FF or FG, the last seat will be between Healy, Browne and the other FF/FG.

They got 12% in the last election in Tipperary with both FF and FG outpolling them, so a big question mark here.

L1011

Apparently SF are looking at adding a third in Dublin Midwest. They really are going for too many candidates again; presumably scared of 2020 repeating

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122518670#Comment_122518670

That would be madness on their part, they had a disastorous local elections.

Holding the two seats will be a challenge, especially with two candidates from different parties with the same name - Eoin O'Broin. The SD version may take a seat, or Joanna Tuffy may arise from the dead for Labour. With a strong local elections showing, FG may look for a second seat.

With so many parties looking to take a seat - FF, FG (2), Labour, SDs, and the potential for an independent like Paul Gogarty or II, not forgetting Gino Kenny who has a seat, SF running three candidates could completely split the vote and lead to it spraying everywhere. Losing one of their two becomes possible under such a scenario.

blackwhite

Not a good day for politics in the North, with Doug Beattie stepping down as UUP leader. A voice for compromise and working with other communities, instead of divisive one-upmanship.

His statement suggests a lurch towards the hardline is coming from the UUP.