General Irish politics discussion thread

Fionn1952

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120286130#Comment_120286130

He's a TD in my consituency now. Shinner economics with a side of some Renua social policies.

Putting it kindly, I'll leave it as he's not my cup of tea.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120286214#Comment_120286214

Agree, strong speaker but far too conservative for me.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120286130#Comment_120286130

Yeah but most recent IT poll had them on <1, which I presume is the polite way of saying 0. They're a one-man band, zero chance of any other seats. As I was saying in the CA forum, the poll ratings of the smaller left parties seems to bounce around between 0 and 5% with little apparent connection to how things are going for them in the 'real world' or how they are likely to do in a general election.

Water John

The Rural Independents would be in the same pool as Aontu. It's they make it difficult for Aontu to expand.

FrancieBrady

Holly Cairns to be new leader of SD's. Unopposed in her bid.

Podge_irl

Aontú are going to go the same way as Renua. Complete waste of space.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120285746#Comment_120285746

They'll go into power with FF the same way FG did tbh. Then hope that 5 years is enough time to accomplish enough that their voters forget/forgive them.

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120286546#Comment_120286546

All opinion polls have a margin of error. Depending on the size of the margin the numbers for parties that have percentages in and around that margin of error are a bit meaningless. You'd expect that relatively small parties figures would bounce around between 0 and the margin of error. That's probably what you are seeing with Aountu and the smaller left wing parties. Statistical noise. All you can really say is that their share of the vote is small but also big enough to register in a national poll. Not every political party is big enough to feature in a national opinion poll.

For bigger parties polls are a bit more meaningful but even then you bear in mind the context and limitations of any opinion poll.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120286130#Comment_120286130

Calling Aontu the 4th biggest party is the very definition of cherry picking data. There have been 7 polls published in 2023. In only one did they reach that 4% value and even then so did the Greens, Labour and Soc Dems. In the two most recent polls they polled 1% & 2%. They have only 1 TD and 3 councillors. That puts them a long way behind the Greens, Labour, Soc Dems and PBP/SOL and level with I4C in 8th place.

That aside, I thought that Peadar Toibin spoke well when he was on the Irish Time Inside politics podcast a few weeks ago. The fundamental problem with them though is that they're a bit all over the place with their issues. From the right-wing side they're pro-life and seem to be the only party asking questions about how sustainable the current immigration policy is. A lot of their economic policies seem to be left-wing. So while people on this site are always crying out for a party that is left-wing on social issues and right-wing on economics, Aontu seems to be occupying the polar opposite spot on the political compass. A lot of their supporters online seem to be conspiracy theory adjacent so I'd be curious to know what's going on in the local level. I think, much like Renua a few years ago, they are at a cross-roads and they need to decide what kind of party they want to be and who they want to have as their members.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120284659#Comment_120284659

I agree they wouldn’t but how are SF if they do get into government as the major party going to sell to a junior party that what has happened to others won’t happen again ?

retalivity

FF Senator forgot that he owns a bar, with his own name over the door

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-senator-ollie-crowe-admits-he-erred-in-failing-to-mention-he-owned-a-popular-galway-bar-in-register-of-interests-42360529.html

I mean, come on..

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293411#Comment_120293411

they need to decide what kind of party they want to be and who they want to have as their members.

Doesn't really matter what they 'want' to be though. In the real world of politics they'll never amount to anything more than Peadar Toibin's political machine, little different from those of Michael Collins, Michael Lowry etc. Except that unlike the case of those guys, there's a good chance they'll fail in their overriding purpose of getting their man re-elected to the Dail...

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120293619#Comment_120293619

The are years of damage to undo. It will involve building trust. Whether or not that is possible remains to be seen.

blanch152

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/defamation-reforms-to-be-fast-tracked-as-sinn-feins-chilling-strategy-targeted-by-fine-gael-42359878.html

This is quite simply the single most important reform needed in Irish politics. Forget Paschal's man with the van, or the forgetful pub owner, even put aside the millions that SF are siphoning off dead people, making sure that we can have an open discourse on politics and not have SLAPPs cases every second day from SF is the most important objective for our political freedom.

Sam Russell

As SF are an all-island political party, should SIPO not treat them as such and demand that their all-island funding be subject to inspection by SIPO, particular to funding leaking across the border from a political system that does not have a similar requirement.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296109#Comment_120296109

Should SIPO not demand that parties here are compliant first and properly inspect them instead of waiting for complaints or some exposé?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296136#Comment_120296136

SF are non-compliant big time. There is also a large question mark over their funding from outside of the state.

SIPO needs teeth, and other strengthening of their powers. The ability to police funding from outside of the state is one major requirement.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296190#Comment_120296190

Clearly not just SF. And the reason SIPO has no teeth is government inaction.

Brussels Sprout

Niall Collins is the latest junior minister to have questions asked about a historical planning application.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2023/0228/1359266-collins-politics/

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297158#Comment_120297158

He's making a 'personal statement' in the Dáil today apparently.

Water John

The independent with the least worry of re-election is Michael Lowry. More certain than a Healy Rae.

FrancieBrady

The Ditich contradicting Niall Collins as he addresses the Dáil is quite something.

Brussels Sprout

I wonder will The Ditch be as diligent in combing through Government minister's past records when Sinn Fein are in power 😏

Good loser

The ban on evictions is being let run out. Commonsense at last. Thank God for FG.

Hotblack Desiato

The alternative was to nationalise all privately owned rental property. And I'm not really kidding either - you cannot have the government impose severe and indefinite restrictions on private property like that.

Brussels Sprout

Neasa Hourigan was on Claire Byrne's radio show and she wasn't happy about it:

declaring that it was “completely the wrong decision”, describing it as “heartless” and expressing her disappointment that Green Party leader Eamon Ryan did not “speak up for Green Party values and Green Party policy”.

She has already lost the whip once with the Greens. She was on the Late Late Show a few weeks ago alongside Holly Cairns (talking about abuse of politicians). I wonder would she think of jumping ship and joining the Soc Dems now that Cairns is leader there. The biggest blocker to that though is her constituency is one of the few in the country that already has a sitting Soc Dem TD, Gary Gannon.

Water John

Don't think SD would want anyone who has an a la carte attitude to whip.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329233#Comment_120329233

I remember when the interminable process of forming the current government was going on, there was talk of 'Neasa-proofing' any agreement, even though she was a rookie TD who hardly anyone had heard of at that stage. So clearly she has long been a one-woman awkward squad for Eamon Ryan...

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329233#Comment_120329233

Can't see both Gannon and Hourigan being re-elected. Most likely outcome next time is that Mary-Lou gets her act together and brings in a running-mate. Paschal will take a seat leaving one to be scrapped for. As well as Hourigan and Gannon, a decent FF candidate could be in that scrape too.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330193#Comment_120330193

Seems like Mary Fitzpatrick has been trying to win that seat forever. Wonder will she be the candidate again next time around. Given that she came 5th last time out I can't see her getting elected next time round, especially with an extra Shinner in the mix.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330366#Comment_120330366

Agreed, wonder if there is a young Ahern willing to run for FF.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330505#Comment_120330505

Looking at the media the last fortnight there's an old Ahern is certainly available :-)

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330561#Comment_120330561

He won't be running for a TD slot, eye on bigger things. Next generation is where it is at for Dublin Central, if there is someone thinking of it. The brother had a seat as well at one point, so there may be nephews and nieces. The other brother was Lord Mayor, so who knows? Don't know the local set-up well enough myself.

Brussels Sprout

There are a few constituencies in the country that are absolute dog fights and Dublin Central is one of them. Others that spring to mind are Dublin Bay South and Cork South Central. Basically anywhere where you have multiple cabinet ministers or party leaders running against each other.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120331057#Comment_120331057

And with boundary changes and at least 20 extra seats to be spread around, the election night will be fun, no matter the result.

FrancieBrady

The Greens will have to answer a lot of the criticism in this article at the next election. In a lot of people's eyes this is spot on:

The Green Party: an inveterate mudguard for the establishment, the political arm of South Dublin farmers’ markets, perpetually trying to convince you – and itself – that things would be slightly worse if not for its efforts.

https://www.ontheditch.com/green-party/

I think they'll have major trouble convincing anyone.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329233#Comment_120329233

Yeah she will be off to the SDs.

She has made her feelings known and undermined the leader.

O'reillys face on TV this week after the clip played of her saying no green policies were being heard said it all.

She must be an outcast now.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120331619#Comment_120331619

The Ditch has branched out into writing Opinion pieces against Sinn Fein's opponents now too?

Francie imagine if someone shared a hit piece in the Sunday Independent written by someone like Stephen Collins or Anne Harris slating Sinn Fein and said "Sinn Fein will need to answer some of these questions". It'd technically be true but the source would certainly dilute the point greatly.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333820#Comment_120333820

The point stands on it's merits or it doesn't, regardless of where it is written.

If you don't agree, why not tackle the content.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333820#Comment_120333820

That article is laughable. The standard of journalism in it is probably the worst I have seen. Doesn't have a clue about Green policies, just some deeply-held prejudicial bitterness.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333905#Comment_120333905

Ok, I will.

First off the whole thing reads like something from a Student Magazine. The theme seems to be that there are a bunch of easy and obvious answers out there if only the Greens were not too craven and power hungry to take them.

The purpose of the Green Party is to provide a vote laundering service to middle class liberals who want to support Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael but are too embarrassed to do so.

This is the sort of lazy statement that you'd see over in one of the many Green-bashing threads on the Current Affairs / IMHO forum. It's the writer projecting his own contempt for the party onto their voters. It's the equivalent of someone saying that the only people who vote for Sinn Fein are people who believe in the magic money tree. It's just plain ignorance.

He then spends the next few paragraphs bashing Neassa Hourigan and Patrick Costello just because they have been vocal about opposing certain policies. He lists all of the things that they have voted for as if to say "Well why didn't you complaining about those things too". Well it turns that that even if they had and left the party then that wouldn't have been enough for him either since he finishes by saying that even if they left the party the gesture would be meaningless.

This is the sort of nonsense you hear spouted by the PBP brigade. Where everyone who compromises is a sell-out and a hypocrite and the only way to maintain your activist bona-fides is to never compromise and, coincidentally, never have to make any tough decisions.

Then there's a section where he accuses the Greens of "implementing racist policies against migrants and asylum seekers" without any link to what they might be. Oh and they're responsible for fascism too apparently.

Jesus Christ...I'm sorry I can't read any more of this guff.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120330505#Comment_120330505

Jaysus, talk about a marriage made in hell between two utterly toxic, past-it brands.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334455#Comment_120334455

The writer no doubt has contempt for the Green party, that in itself doesn't diminish what he has to say.

The purpose of the Green Party is to provide a vote laundering service to middle class liberals who want to support Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael but are too embarrassed to do so. That way Green voters can feel good about themselves while preserving a status quo that has seen record homelessness, a collapsing health service and more than 70 percent of young people considering emigrating.

I'd argue that this is spot on analysis TBH. I know quite a few people who voted Green but are full on FG or FF in every way.

I didn't claim all of the article was true or on point, rather that some of the criticisms made will have to be answered at the next election. In the same way the Greens had to answer for their last stint in government.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334573#Comment_120334573

And I'd argue that it's utterly derivative nonsense. He is essentially accusing Green Party voters of "Virtue signaling".

It's basically playing on the stereotype that all Green voters live in mansions in D4, drive massive 4v4s, jet off on loads of foreign holidays and then turn around and demand that poor people and farmers drastically alter their lifestyles in the name of saving the planet.

It's the equivalent of saying that Sinn Fein voters all come from council estates, hate the British, sponge off the state and expect something for nothing.

It's just offensive sterotyping based on the very worst opinions others have of the party and its voters.

And even if I knew "quite a few people" like that who voted SF it wouldn't make it true. The plural of anecdote is not data.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334674#Comment_120334674

We'll see come the election. I think the Greens will be given the same answer as they got after their last stint in government. And it will be for some of the reasons outlined in the article.

By the way, I never presented anything as 'data' I merely voiced an opinion.

blanch152

The Greens held two seats in the last Dail with 2.7% of the vote, they have 12 seats with 7.1% of the vote this time. They are currently polling around 4-5% in the opinion polls.

Sure, there are people, like whatever idiot wrote that Ditch article, who don't understand the Greens, and who engage in ignorant stereotyping, and there are also fools who fall for that schtick, but the reality is that the Greens would likely retain 4-5 seats if an election was held today, and return as part of the current government, but in an election in two years time, as the effects of climate change get clearer and clearer, and their efforts in public transport and other areas begin to bear fruit, they could do even better than that.

One thing that can be said, unlike opposition parties like PBP and SF, who attract votes for being against everything, and having nothing positive to say, the Greens have always put forward a positive agenda, one of real change, with real policies.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334868#Comment_120334868

He certainly has a 'different' understanding of the Greens as many people have differing understandings of other parties. These threads are awash with different understandings of the various political entities, nothing unusual there.

The 'reality' will be in the result of the next election. We shall see.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334573#Comment_120334573

That is not "analysis" - its just projecting your prejudices onto other voters with absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335038#Comment_120335038

An extraordinary amount of analysis goes on across media without evidence.

It's an 'opinion piece'. I agree with some of his opinions. In my experience I have found that analysis to be largely true.

You are entitled to your view.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334788#Comment_120334788

Fair enough.

For what it's worth I fully expect the Greens to get a whacked at the next election. That's just how it always goes for the junior parties in coalitions (PDs in 2007, Greens in 2011, Labour in 2016, Ind Alliance in 2020). They also benefited from SF not running enough candidates last time out - which was likely a one off bonus. I don't think they'll be completely wiped out again but they could end up back at their 2016 numbers (2 seats).

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120335095#Comment_120335095

I think you will be surprised. Some of the changes that are difficult to accept will be beginning to bear fruit come 2025, and the Greens will do better than anyone thinks.

Even if I am wrong, the long-term changes that they make will last more than an electoral cycle and be difficult to reverse. For example, imaging a government reneging on climate tax or climate change targets? Will be slated everywhere, and not just in Ireland. Greens aren't interested solely in electoral success. Unlike others who talk about change, they are interested in making change.