General Irish politics discussion thread

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721626#Comment_118721626

I think the SDLP are already aligned with FF (for some unknown reason).

As for the merger, yeah it makes perfect sense although I cannot see the likes of Brendan Howlin and Roisin Shorthall going for it given all of the history.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721672#Comment_118721672

Reports earlier this week that alliance is in tatters. I'll try and find it.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721672#Comment_118721672

They are yesterday's people. Both will know it.

The is about the next 10 to 20 years and getting it right, now.

Hotblack Desiato

SDLP, like FF are mostly anti-choice so it's not as surprising an alliance as it might seem

Sam Russell

I think the 'anti-choice' issue is long dealt with, like divorce, and is no longer a live issue - at least not at the political party level.

Labour amalgamated with the Workers Party (Democratic Left), when the Labour party had about 10% support, with the WP having about half that, and following the stint in Gov, ended up with 10% for the combined party, and declining steadily. They have split again, and now the two parties struggle to get 4% in the polls. They need to do something before they disappear altogether.

Forming a SDLP and joining with the Northern SDLP to form an all-Ireland SDLP would be a good move.

Not too sure it would succeed without a lot of new blood though. The likes of Howlin are dinosaurs.

Brussels Sprout

I'm not sure how well the Labour party's ties with the unions serve them. I know that it puts some people off voting for them and at the same time I'm not sure how many votes they get from union members.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118827988#Comment_118827988

There is no "split again" - the bulk of the Workers Party left and became Democratic Left but the remains of the WP continued to and still do exist.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828376#Comment_118828376

The split I was referring to was the split of the Labour Party and the newly formed Social Democrats. The first item on the agenda of new Irish political parties is the split.

The WP split into all sorts of parties, like PBP, Rise, and probably a few more, etc. Hard to keep up with them. They just want to shout from their bunkers - 'We would be better - only we don't want to get into anything that might make us responsible and lose support'.

Remember Richard Bored Barret protesting about something or other outside Dublin City offices when he was just elected a councillor, and where he should have been inside at the council meeting directing his opposition at his fellow councillors - not outside shouting through a megaphone at the building. Protest is all they know - and any bandwagon is worth jumping on if it gets publicity for them - particularly if it could get votes.

Brussels Sprout

Ivana Bacik officially becomes the new Labour party leader (after running unopposed for the position).

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1506965618872004613

Her first act as party leader is to call on the government to expel some Russian diplomats over the invasion of Ukraine.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828840#Comment_118828840

Wonder what James Connolly would think of the Labour Party now.

It's likely she'll lose her seat at the next election. Her constituency is notoriously fickle.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828863#Comment_118828863

I don't think anyone can say for sure what is "likely" to happen in that constituency. I think it will be the most competitive in the country:

• Chris Andrews (SF) - probably the only banker given that SF's vote total is likely to increase from 2020
• ????? (FG) - This is FG heartland. They had 2 seats here up until 2020 and should almost certainly have enough of the vote to win one of them back at the next election
• Eamonn Ryan (GP) - topped the poll last time out but will pay the inevitable small party in government penalty next time out
• Jim O' Callaghan (FF) - could potentially be the leader of FF come the next election or could still be wallowing on the back benches - who knows!
• Ivana Bacik (LAB) - won the bye-election in impressive fashion and will get a spotlight bump with her ascendancy to the leadership. General Elections are of course a different beast though since she'll be competing against the sitting politicians

I would be shocked if SF and FG don't get 2 of the seats and then it's a massive battle for the other 2 between Ryan, O'Callaghan and Bacik. It's all to play for at this stage but their respective fortunes might change a lot come the next general election. If O'Callaghan doesn't up his profile between now and then I think he will be the one to miss out.

touts

Ivana won the by-election but that was because most of her core vote came from FF/FG voters who were not enamored with the weak candidates those parties put forward. In a general election they will return to their traditional homes and give her at best a third preference in a general election and those won't flow to her in time to stop elimination.

That said I would imagine she will then run again in Trinity senate election and will take a seat there. So it is likely she will want to lead labour from the senate. Wether or not she is allowed to do that will depend on who is left in the Dail and if they feel they can risk being cancelled were they to attempt to oust the champion of the woke.

Sam Russell

Dublin Bay South and its predecessors have been the natural home to party leaders. Garret Fitzgerald, Rory Quinn, John Gormley, Michael McDowell to name but a few - some at the same time. Currently, two of the current four are party leaders.

Hard to predict at the moment, as it will depend on who takes over from MM - and how much the GP handles things. It is a long time till the next election, with a change of rotating Taoiseach due this year.

Brussels Sprout

that was because most of her core vote came from FF/FG voters who were not enamored with the weak candidates those parties put forward

I don't know about that. No exit poll was carried out on the day of the referendum so we cannot be sure where her votes came from.

Looking at the total %'s of first-preference votes FG's didn't actually change that much between the general election in 2020 and the bye-election. They dropped from 27.8% -> 26.2% so relative to the other parties their votes actually held up.

The Greens and FF had big drops. I could definitely see Green voters shifting toward Labour....not so sure about FF voters.

Hotblack Desiato

Jim O'Callaghan managed to make a lot of noise about himself a couple of years back but seems quieter lately. Like Alan Kelly, a lot more people seem to actively dislike him than are neutral or positive about him (those who've heard of him at all, of course!). Can't stand him myself!

Podge_irl

Her record in GEs in general does not exactly bode well, whatever about the by-election she finally managed to get in on. I would have thought Aodhan O'Riordan would have gone for the job.

touts

Ivana is on Drivetime being interviewed by Sarah. Couple of very interesting answers to questions:

Was there a plot against Alan Kelly? She won't comment on internal matters. i.e. yes

How will she work with Alan in the future after he had to resign: "Well people choose to resign from politics all the time. Look at Eoghan Murphy" Basically she just told Kelly to resign his seat.

What does she say to people in Labour who don't think she represents traditional labour values? They are peddling a lazy narrative. i.e. they can f**k off with Kelly.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828840#Comment_118828840

I don't think it’s good for people to become leader of their party unopposed. It’s doesn’t give them a real mandate. I mean at least Alan Kelly got some sort of mandate from someone, and he ran against someone else.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118830209#Comment_118830209

It was an awful start to her leadership...clearly hiding something over the resignation, caught out unprepared for the mini-budget questions and totally unconvincing when asked about her background and suitability for leading a labour party.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118830209#Comment_118830209

Pretty much summarises her dreadful interview.

She wants to see the minimum wage raised by 30 cent an hour.

Not 1 euro, not even 50 cent, but just 30 cent.

No point of a Labour Party. She belongs in FG.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118829699#Comment_118829699

FF's disastrous performance in the DBS by-election seems to have softened his cough. Little point in him becoming party leader if he can't hold his own seat...

Sam Russell

I think J O'C was against a successful FF result in DBS - as it provides major competition at the next election. No TD wants a strong running mate who might unseat the current holder.

I live in DBS and the FF campaign was half-hearted.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118836128#Comment_118836128

There is a huge difference between not trying that hard to get someone elected; and having the worst FF electoral result ever.

The candidate is as responsible for the result as anyone else of course.

Sam Russell

Well, he wont have a sitting FF TD on the ticket at the next election.

Hotblack Desiato

There mightn't be a sitting FF TD there after the election either 😁

touts

Ivana's on air Car crash just got pride of place on Playback

It sounds even worse on a second listening. Theres a whiff of Edwin Poots about her. The only saving grace for her is Labour have tried everyone else as leader so there is no Jeffrey Donaldson waiting in the long grass for her.

touts

Ivana's on Newstalk live now. She can't explain the difference between Labour and the Soc Dems. She just answered a question about her time as leader of labour in the senate during labours time in government after the financial collapse with a scripted answers to other questions about how grateful she is for Alan Kelly's support and then another answer on Covid and Ukraine.

Gavin isn't letting her away with it and keeps asking the question so she is crumbling. She sounds like she is nearly in tears at times.

Brussels Sprout

Fine Gael TD for Donegal, Joe McHugh, has announced he won't be standing at the next election:

https://twitter.com/aoifegracemoore/status/1521791755636641794

With SF nailed on to win 3 seats there in the next election, he would have been in a battle for one of the final 2 seats with Charlie McConalogue and Thomas Pringle.

L1011

Was probably the best TD there in generations, for local issues at least. And not in the turning-up-at-funerals-and-grant-awards like Cope was, being willing to try work on serious issues.

Tombo2001

Just one for the Mods.

What is the point of having a Politics thread when the primary discussion on the current government takes place on the Current Affairs/IMHO forum. I was hoping to tune into the discussion on Robert Watt and the Oireachtas hearings (FWIW I really do not like the way he has been treated by elected politicians, for me it is a witch hunt and my bigger issue is that it would put people off going for his job down the line and reinforces the negative stereotypes that people have of Public Servants). Anyway, once I saw the conversation was happening on Current Affairs, well whats even the point because of the nature of the conversation that tends to take place there.

In other parts of boards you'll be told 'Moved to such and such forum'.....why not with politics.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119015082#Comment_119015082

I had a similar experience with the Russia thread over there so I started the Ukraine one in this sub-forum instead.

Unfortunately the traffic on this sub-forum just isn't high enough to sustain many threads.

I don't know why that is exactly. Perhaps it is similar to the way that tabloid newspapers tend to have higher circulations than broadsheets.

Tombo2001

Yeah - it is strange. Other forums, the cycling forum is a really good example - you have a lot of technical knowledge, people who are passionate about cycling, you can learn a lot from it.

The Current Affairs thread - its like a really really bad Facebook discussion. We're here to give out......travellers, social welfare scroungers, Nigerians, civil servants, RTE....what evs. We are here to give out and thats what matters.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119015168#Comment_119015168

It's precisely that.

The burden of post quality reduces traffic because you simply can't get away with spitting out any old nonsense.

A pure example of quality over quantity.

That said, after the update last year, you could probably blame that for the collapse in users here.

pixelburp

Politics was always quieter prior to the update, but what it had that kept things spicy was Brexit and the Trump Presidency. Both were outsized car crashes that had people enraptured, for better or worse. Look at the relative quiet of the Biden Presidency thread; it's barren because there's nothing to despair and gawp at to the same degree.

Hotblack Desiato

Boring politics is good politics 😊

Headshot

Watching "The Tonight Show" just reminds me why I despise People Before Profit so much.

Ireland would be so much better without this lot

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151510#Comment_119151510

I was ambivalent about them in the past. I didn't take them too seriously especially considering that they are clearly never going to enter into a coalition government. They just seemed to be a constant feature of Irish politics. What flipped me though was their stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year where they had to make it all about NATO and the USA. It was like they had this world view from 2003 (when the USA & NATO invaded Iraq) and they were going to contort events to fit that view no matter the evidence in front of them. It was like they'd give a half-hearted criticism of Putin just to check a box and then spend the majority of their time railing against the USA with gusto.

They only returned 5 seats in the last election due to SF not running enough candidates so ordinarily they'd be in deep trouble the next time around. However with the expansion of the Dail, in order to meet the criteria set out in the constitution, they might just end up keeping their seats next time around - more's the pity.

Brussels Sprout

In December we're going to have the first ever Taoiseach swap within the same government. Does anyone know how they agreed upon the date? As far as I can make out, no matter what way you slice the numbers Micheal Martin appears to be getting more than his fair share of time.

Method A: Halfway between maximum election period

The Election was held on Feb 8th 2020. The next week one will need to be held by Feb 8th 2025. Halfway between these dates is sometime in August 2020

Method B: Halfway between maximum election period from start of government

Micheal Martin was elected Taoiseach on 27th June 2020. Halfway between that date and 8th Feb 2025 brings us to mid-October 2020

I cannot think of any other way of calculating it. Did Fianna Fail pull a fast one and get some extra months for Micheal Martin at the expense of Varadkar? Not to mention that there's no guarantee that Vardkar will even get his full allotment (should some unforeseen event cause the government to collapse)

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119815660#Comment_119815660

My guess is wanting to align the swap with a recess.

Sam Russell

How many days will Varadkar be Taoiseach compared with M. Martin if the Gov goes fulltime?

Remember that the Gov was not formed for six months.

beggars_bush

Double child benefit payment coming today.

A lot of it to be pissed up against a wall

Hermy

So a lot of it will be going back to the government in VAT while supporting local retailers. That’s great news.

Beechwoodspark

Big front page story on the Irish Mail on Sunday - about an unnamed TD who allegedly was grooming underage teenagers and using fake profiles etc.

Screenshots of alleged conversations between the unnamed TD and children, in the article

the paper says that when this came to light a few month ago, the unnamed party took the whip from the TD but he still features on their website and still on committees.

Very little coverage of it so far.

For example RTÉ Havnt covered it.

anyone know why they aren’t covering it?

seems a significant story surely

Murph85

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818107#Comment_119818107

Ridiculous waste of money...

beggars_bush

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818127#Comment_119818127

its meant to be a targeted payment

Hermy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818258#Comment_119818258

And how do you know it isn't?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818258#Comment_119818258

Child care is not targeted - it goes to all qualifying families irrespective of means.

The Gov takes the view that there must be targeted and non-targeted payments. Otherwise, those that do not get any payments - which includes those who just miss out by being just over the means test limit - will consider themselves cut off from any relief.

The minimum targeting for child benefits that could be applied would to make the payments liable to income tax as is the state pension.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818146#Comment_119818146

Because Irish media is doing what it always does - self censoring?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119818146#Comment_119818146

Suspect reporting restrictions to stop the children being identified

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119816534#Comment_119816534

It was less than that - just over 4 and a half months. Election was 8th Feb. Martin was elected Taoiseach on June 27th.

For arguments sake let's say that they swap on the 15th December (I'm not sure the date so picking the mid-way point in the month).

Then Martin will have been Taoiseach for 901 days

If the next election is held on 8th Feb 2025 Varadkar will have been Taoiseach 786 days

Now Varadkar was also standing in as Taoiseach during the period of government formation, which was 140 days - so perhaps they factored that in too and just went with December because of the recess as @PommieBast pointed out.