General Irish politics discussion thread

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120399104#Comment_120399104

There aren't many things that unite politicians of all parties in this country but utter hypocrisy when it comes to opposing planning permissions in their area seems to be one of them. Out of curiosity are there any TDs who have said that they have a personal policy of not opposing planning permission? I'm guessing there isn't because they all fear losing the votes of large blocs of voters (such as resident's associations).

It's such a given at this stage that the objections of an elected politician should be completely ignored by any planning authority.

hotmail.com

Labour are going to build or renovate 1 million homes if they get back in.

Water John

Nice round media friendly figure. It's building 50K houses per year. It's an upscale of the track the Govn't are presently on. Ivana has not performed well over the weekend. Her speech last evening was rushed and had too much material. she improved towards the latter end, getting her pacing a bit better. Might have realised she was ahead of herself time wise. She lacks cadence in her speaking, it's monotone. Don't think we need to hear the word 'comrades' anymore.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120398498#Comment_120398498

Why?

Say you are charging €1,000 rent, but the market rent is €1,200, 20% more.

You leave the house vacant for two years meaning you lose out on €24,000 in rent. It takes 10 more years (12 in total) to make up the difference. If the rent increase is 50%, it takes four years (six in total) to make up the difference. The rent control legislation could be gone by then. To make it worthwhile, you would have to be confident that you could double the rent. That means it would only take four years in total to be back to square one.

Them's the maths, a landlord would be mad to leave a place vacant for two years.

Water John

Would the possible configuration of the next Govn't be a hidden driver of landlords leaving the market at this time?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120391587#Comment_120391587

It has a potential effect in either direction there - it gives those independents yet another chance of extracting a quid pro quo from the Government for their vote; but if what they get is crap (or non-existent) it won't outweigh the local damage of being associated with supporting the Government.

There is also the ability to goad the GP members who act as if they're not really responsible for GP actions. One is overboard already of course.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404066#Comment_120404066

You miss one critical point: I am talking about landlords who'se properties have already remained empty for 18 or so months because of lockdown, not through any voluntary desire. So using your numbers the actual choice is:

• Lose €18,000 and stay on €1,000 rent; or
• Lose €24,000 but then have €1,200 rent.

That's €18,000 gone either way. Is it worth losing an extra €6,000 for the €200 increase?

Edit: €200 for €6,000 would still be questionable, but in reality it gonna be over 50% not 20%, and my main point is what loss should be accounted for.

WishUWereHere

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120403903#Comment_120403903

How? Áine Lawlor asked her that question on TWIP, and Bacik rambled off on another topic altogether.

retalivity

Bacik spouting nonsense and being rightly ridiculed for it. SF have the free-houses-for-all market cornered, and the SDs are gonna hoover up the progressive young vote that would have lent to Labour, so shes gone all in on mad plans that are no way workable. to try and stay relevant.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120403903#Comment_120403903

No they wont get back in and even if they did, they wouldnt come anywhere close to that target. Laughable.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404113#Comment_120404113

Why?

The most likley configuration is more of the same. FFG.

SF will get the most seats, but not enough to form a govt without support from FG or FF.

Its more likley than not that FFG will still end up running the show.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404113#Comment_120404113

The main driver of landlords leaving the market is the large profits they can make from selling. The "hardship" of being a landlord is a convenient thing for them to have a moan about but they have been well compensated for this by the rise in rents over the last decade.

Most of those selling are either accidental landlords who were previously in negative equity or career landlords at or near retirement age who are cashing out on a high. The property doesn't cease to exist once sold, most individual houses will be bought by owner occupiers which is a positive. It is simply moving that unit from column A to column B but as both are undersupplied, its not such a bad thing. Apartments will be bought with tenants in-situ or with the intention of renting out again after refurbishment and possibly with additional units where possible.

We need to stop worrying about these landlords, very few will have created a single additional unit outside of splitting a house into several apartments. For all the bad press they get, it's the institutional landlords who are building thousands of additional rental units and increasing the supply.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404842#Comment_120404842

For all the bad press they get, it's the institutional landlords who are building thousands of additional rental units and increasing the supply.

That is absolute nonsense, they arent the ones building any of the supply they are simply the ones who buy it up before it has a chance to reach the open market. Also they can afford to do so because our tax system for private vs institutional landlords is insane, private landlords pay 52% tax on all rent received while institutions pay 0%. One of the seriously needed changes is a re balancing of that, its bonkers that such a situation exists and hasn't been resolved in all this time.

Also institutions arent the benevolent benefactors of the rental market you make them out to be. These are the same kinds of institutions who refused to rent tons of properties between 2010 and 2015 as they had bought at the height of the bubble and wouldn't let people rent these properties unless they were able to charge what would have been insane charges for the time.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120400246#Comment_120400246

While I fundamentally agree, I would add that it is merely reflecting the hypocrisy of the population at large. One of the more representative things our politicians actually do.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404918#Comment_120404918

Those developments only go to construction because there are large companies willing to forward buy all units. There would be very few build to rent properties being built if this wasn't an option. There is no market for individuals to buy units to let out, very few have access to the money required, borrowing isn't an option and it would mean the developer taking huge risk as they have to commit to the construction in the hope of finding a lot of different buyers at prices which cover their costs.

The alternative is the developer holding all units and recouping the cost through rent received over many years. For the renter, this is essentially the same as an institutional investor owning the units but for the developer, they have huge capital tied up in one development for decades. That might work for a one off project but not for multiple projects.

The building of rental properties needs companies who can buy them now and are happy to recoup the money over the long term - investors. That's how it works in all the countries which get held up as examples of well functioning rental markets.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405103#Comment_120405103

What absolute rubbish. Your argument basically amounts to selling properties is too difficult for developers so only private institutions should be allowed do it? BTW people have been individually buying properties off plans for years this is not something that has only been made possible by institutions. Are you that unaware of how strapped for housing we are at ever level of the market? People are begging for any property to simply get a step on the ladder.

We shouldn't be building 100% build to rent blocks full stop its just another part of the problem where property is simply seen as an investment and not a way for people and families to start their lives which is just another part of whats leading to the major demographics issue every 1st world country has screaming down the tracks at them but nobody wants to do anything about.

Your viewpoint is childishly naive and myopic in the extreme, I cant be bothered arguing with fundy libertarians like yourself anymore.

Sam Russell

The housing crisis will only be solved when there are sufficient houses built. That will only happen when the Gov, at local or national level, gets into major building programmes. It happened in the 50s 60s and 70s, but stopped then.

In the meantime, rent controls are needed because that market is broken and is leading to homelessness. How that is brought about is a major political question - and is not going to be solved easily.

The planning system is preventing houses being built as it is too easy for objections to delay or prevent house being built. How that is brought about is a major political question - and is not going to be solved easily.

So, where do we go from here?

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404431#Comment_120404431

I don't think there are very many landlords sitting around at the moment with a history of 18 months vacancies on their hands.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405168#Comment_120405168

There is a chronic shortage of rental accommodations - why shouldn't build to rent blocks be built?

What we need is sufficient supply of build-to-rent blocks and apartments and houses being completed for purchase. We have neither, but the problem is not in the few completions of either that is taking place.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405389#Comment_120405389

We have a chronic undersupply across the board indeed but people are stuck in rentals because they cannot buy which is blocking off the bottom of the market for new renters to move into. Yes we should build build to rent but 100% blocks is insane. We need to create space at the top of the market for people to start buying to then vacate rentals that lets people move into. I reckon there is actually plenty of rental property in this country its just occupied indefinitely by people who would prefer to have bought but there's nothing for them to buy. Im also arguing that not allowing people to buy and forcing them into rentals like people are arguing for by building huge swathes of 100% build to rent is stifling people starting families pushing our aging population into becoming an even bigger problem in 20-30 years time.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405430#Comment_120405430

We're not building huge swathes of anything which is the actual problem. If every single new build "build to rent" was instead put out on the market for first time buyers it wouldn't make much difference.

Its pissing about around the edges. The problem is not institutional investors and build to rents. The problem is that we are simply not building enough.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405168#Comment_120405168

I was referring specifically to rental properties. By definition, a rental property is not owned by those living there (disappointing to have to point that out but here we are) so once built each unit is either retained by the developer or it is sold to another party. Whether the owner is an individual with 1 or 2 properties, a small business with multiple units or a large company with hundreds of units makes little difference really (although larger professional landlords generally account for asset depreciation so replacing a washing machine for example is generally not the same issue it would be for a small landlord living of rent received if they have to fork out a couple of hundred at short notice).

The nature of the landlord is largely irrelevant, except that one type has the ability to fund the purchase of large numbers of units which in term makes the construction of those units possible. I never said anything about only selling properties is to certain types of buyers but that is the reality of the situation when it comes to getting rental units built.

Do you think there are lots of landlords out there with the finance to buy a unit or several units off plans (bearing in mind that it would be extremely difficult to get external financing for that)? Even if it does exist, it's not on the scale required to produce thousands of rental units. Getting finance to build units is extremely difficult and trying to get it on the basis of herding the cats that would be many small buyers would be next to impossible.

And your last sentence is truly pathetic, assigning yourself some imaginarymoral higher ground and casting aspersions while you show how clueless you are. You clearly understand absolutely nothing about the topic so probably best that you don't engage further.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404113#Comment_120404113

RTE or the Irish Times (I can't recall which) ran a story a month or two ago implying that yes there is a fear in the landlord community that a SF government would be bad for business and it's time to cash in their chips while the prices are high.

Personally I think that is scare-mongering. I think if SF do get in there's not going to be any sea change, especially considering they'll be in a coalition with somebody who will resist anything dramatic.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405350#Comment_120405350

Probably not anymore, but the original question relates to whether or not a prediction I made sometime (I think) in 2021 came true.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405450#Comment_120405450

Virtually every large scale apartment project that I know of that is currently under construction or recently finished in south dublin is build to rent, in fact I haven't been able to find one currently under construction that is not build to rent. Stillorgan cornerstone - build to rent, sandyford central - build to rent, kilmacud green acres - build to rent, blackrock college site - build to rent, monkstown dalguise house site planning was rejected but once again - build to rent, the buttery on newtown park avenue - build to rent. And these are just the sites im aware of from commuting to my in laws once a week, id happily put on a bet that 80% of sites that are 60+ units are build to rent.

Putting them out for private buyers would absolutely make a difference as it would free up our current stock of rental space which people who want to buy are being forced to sit in.

I absolutely agree we need rental accommodation but from a very casual observation there is no balance being struck right now vs purchasable units. Im open to being proven wrong though.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120404484#Comment_120404484

Just shocked Ivana is able to have policies other than gender equal pay, women in politics and so on.

Someone has finally told her that doesn't win votes.

1 million in 10 years is quite a claim to make. Sinn Fein will probably promise 2 million next.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405980#Comment_120405980

But still the vast majority of houses/apartments in Dublin are not build for rent. Modern large cities like Dublin have these build to rent properties to accommodate well paid people who can easily afford the rent.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120405980#Comment_120405980

Again, it's the fact that all units can be bought upfront which allows for these units to be built. If they weren't BTR, they may not be built at all. Building them for sale is a completely different proposition and has a lot more moving parts which present risks to some or all of that various parties or potential parties involved. BTR and BTP units are not interchangeable, not building one doesn't automatically mean the other gets built.

Banks aren't going to give mortgages to buy units off the plans, too much risk involved from developer going bust to substandard build. At the same time, there is too many risks for a developer to start building speculatively and they won't get external financing for that.

Renting needs to be made more sustainable. Even those who eventually want to buy will likely rent for 10 years or more and that needs to be at rents which still allow them to save to buy. There are some people who wont ever be able to buy for various reasons, they need stable rents. No matter what why you look at it, we need a huge number of BTR apartments built annually for many years to come.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120406225#Comment_120406225

Indeed build to rent in the city centre makes sense, not in suburbs as all of my examples posted are.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120406442#Comment_120406442

Those areas are frankly part of the city now in my view.