General Irish politics discussion thread

Good loser

Heard there on BBC that 14 Labour MP's are on the same wavelength as Paul.

L1011

SF are one down now (and back to not being able to claim they're the biggest in the Dail I think)

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/sinn-fein-td-violet-anne-wynne-resigns-from-party-over-psychological-warfare-41383485.html

The things she's resigning over are common knowledge - SF is a centrally controlled party that doesn't accept any variance from policy at all; and tens of female reps quit during the previous Dail and council terms claiming bullying

blackwhite

I doubt SF are too upset to lose her. She’s been nothing but a magnet for negative stories.

If they’d thought before the election that they had a sniff of a seat in Clare they wouldn’t have had her as the candidate

Brussels Sprout

She's been a walking disaster for them but it's not a good look to be losing another elected representative like this.

If FF/FG were clever and could avoid their worst impulses they would stop hammering SF on the IRA and instead expend all of their energy in their internal workings and populist proposals. I fully expect them to have learned nothing though and go into the next election talking about Jean McConville and Jerry McCabe. It's like an itch that they cannot stop scratching and certain opinion columnists demand it even though it wins them absolutely no new voters and often actively puts younger voters off.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118690083#Comment_118690083

ffg will throw everything at discrediting sf, heading into the ge, it wont work, their reign is coming to an end, for now anyway....

Brussels Sprout

Alan Kelly is stepping down as the leader of the Labour party.

That's a bit of a shock. He hasn't even contested an election for them as leader.

Larbre34

I'm closely related to the senior parliamentary assistant of a Labour TD.

The talk almost since Day 1 of Kelly's leadership, has been that he is hopelessly inept and out of touch and incapable of leading the Party to a unified policy position and clear identity ahead of the local elections in 2024.

They had to cut their losses now or face total irrelevance and extermination.

I'm told an early reunification process with the Social Democrats is on the cards for whomever takes over the leadership.

SecretsOfEarth

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721555#Comment_118721555

For me, I could never warm to Kelly - I often found him smug and self-righteous, even when making valid points. Of course, there was also the problem that, anytime he criticised the government for something that was broadly unpopular, it was usually rebutted with a reference to his own government days.

Brussels Sprout

Interesting. They could call themselves the Social Democratic & Labour Party or SDLP for sho.......oh wait a minute

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721595#Comment_118721595

Why shouldn't they do exactly that and align with the northern Party of the same name. It would be the perfect time for such an alliance and an all-Ireland centre left Liberal party.

It would be perfect positioning ahead of the next decade of Irish unification politics and would certainly eat a hell of a lot of Sinn Féin's lunch at the polls, if they get their policies right.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721626#Comment_118721626

I think the SDLP are already aligned with FF (for some unknown reason).

As for the merger, yeah it makes perfect sense although I cannot see the likes of Brendan Howlin and Roisin Shorthall going for it given all of the history.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721672#Comment_118721672

Reports earlier this week that alliance is in tatters. I'll try and find it.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118721672#Comment_118721672

They are yesterday's people. Both will know it.

The is about the next 10 to 20 years and getting it right, now.

Hotblack Desiato

SDLP, like FF are mostly anti-choice so it's not as surprising an alliance as it might seem

Sam Russell

I think the 'anti-choice' issue is long dealt with, like divorce, and is no longer a live issue - at least not at the political party level.

Labour amalgamated with the Workers Party (Democratic Left), when the Labour party had about 10% support, with the WP having about half that, and following the stint in Gov, ended up with 10% for the combined party, and declining steadily. They have split again, and now the two parties struggle to get 4% in the polls. They need to do something before they disappear altogether.

Forming a SDLP and joining with the Northern SDLP to form an all-Ireland SDLP would be a good move.

Not too sure it would succeed without a lot of new blood though. The likes of Howlin are dinosaurs.

Brussels Sprout

I'm not sure how well the Labour party's ties with the unions serve them. I know that it puts some people off voting for them and at the same time I'm not sure how many votes they get from union members.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118827988#Comment_118827988

There is no "split again" - the bulk of the Workers Party left and became Democratic Left but the remains of the WP continued to and still do exist.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828376#Comment_118828376

The split I was referring to was the split of the Labour Party and the newly formed Social Democrats. The first item on the agenda of new Irish political parties is the split.

The WP split into all sorts of parties, like PBP, Rise, and probably a few more, etc. Hard to keep up with them. They just want to shout from their bunkers - 'We would be better - only we don't want to get into anything that might make us responsible and lose support'.

Remember Richard Bored Barret protesting about something or other outside Dublin City offices when he was just elected a councillor, and where he should have been inside at the council meeting directing his opposition at his fellow councillors - not outside shouting through a megaphone at the building. Protest is all they know - and any bandwagon is worth jumping on if it gets publicity for them - particularly if it could get votes.

Brussels Sprout

Ivana Bacik officially becomes the new Labour party leader (after running unopposed for the position).

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1506965618872004613

Her first act as party leader is to call on the government to expel some Russian diplomats over the invasion of Ukraine.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828840#Comment_118828840

Wonder what James Connolly would think of the Labour Party now.

It's likely she'll lose her seat at the next election. Her constituency is notoriously fickle.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828863#Comment_118828863

I don't think anyone can say for sure what is "likely" to happen in that constituency. I think it will be the most competitive in the country:

• Chris Andrews (SF) - probably the only banker given that SF's vote total is likely to increase from 2020
• ????? (FG) - This is FG heartland. They had 2 seats here up until 2020 and should almost certainly have enough of the vote to win one of them back at the next election
• Eamonn Ryan (GP) - topped the poll last time out but will pay the inevitable small party in government penalty next time out
• Jim O' Callaghan (FF) - could potentially be the leader of FF come the next election or could still be wallowing on the back benches - who knows!
• Ivana Bacik (LAB) - won the bye-election in impressive fashion and will get a spotlight bump with her ascendancy to the leadership. General Elections are of course a different beast though since she'll be competing against the sitting politicians

I would be shocked if SF and FG don't get 2 of the seats and then it's a massive battle for the other 2 between Ryan, O'Callaghan and Bacik. It's all to play for at this stage but their respective fortunes might change a lot come the next general election. If O'Callaghan doesn't up his profile between now and then I think he will be the one to miss out.

touts

Ivana won the by-election but that was because most of her core vote came from FF/FG voters who were not enamored with the weak candidates those parties put forward. In a general election they will return to their traditional homes and give her at best a third preference in a general election and those won't flow to her in time to stop elimination.

That said I would imagine she will then run again in Trinity senate election and will take a seat there. So it is likely she will want to lead labour from the senate. Wether or not she is allowed to do that will depend on who is left in the Dail and if they feel they can risk being cancelled were they to attempt to oust the champion of the woke.

Sam Russell

Dublin Bay South and its predecessors have been the natural home to party leaders. Garret Fitzgerald, Rory Quinn, John Gormley, Michael McDowell to name but a few - some at the same time. Currently, two of the current four are party leaders.

Hard to predict at the moment, as it will depend on who takes over from MM - and how much the GP handles things. It is a long time till the next election, with a change of rotating Taoiseach due this year.

Brussels Sprout

that was because most of her core vote came from FF/FG voters who were not enamored with the weak candidates those parties put forward

I don't know about that. No exit poll was carried out on the day of the referendum so we cannot be sure where her votes came from.

Looking at the total %'s of first-preference votes FG's didn't actually change that much between the general election in 2020 and the bye-election. They dropped from 27.8% -> 26.2% so relative to the other parties their votes actually held up.

The Greens and FF had big drops. I could definitely see Green voters shifting toward Labour....not so sure about FF voters.

Hotblack Desiato

Jim O'Callaghan managed to make a lot of noise about himself a couple of years back but seems quieter lately. Like Alan Kelly, a lot more people seem to actively dislike him than are neutral or positive about him (those who've heard of him at all, of course!). Can't stand him myself!

Podge_irl

Her record in GEs in general does not exactly bode well, whatever about the by-election she finally managed to get in on. I would have thought Aodhan O'Riordan would have gone for the job.

touts

Ivana is on Drivetime being interviewed by Sarah. Couple of very interesting answers to questions:

Was there a plot against Alan Kelly? She won't comment on internal matters. i.e. yes

How will she work with Alan in the future after he had to resign: "Well people choose to resign from politics all the time. Look at Eoghan Murphy" Basically she just told Kelly to resign his seat.

What does she say to people in Labour who don't think she represents traditional labour values? They are peddling a lazy narrative. i.e. they can f**k off with Kelly.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828840#Comment_118828840

I don't think it’s good for people to become leader of their party unopposed. It’s doesn’t give them a real mandate. I mean at least Alan Kelly got some sort of mandate from someone, and he ran against someone else.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118830209#Comment_118830209

It was an awful start to her leadership...clearly hiding something over the resignation, caught out unprepared for the mini-budget questions and totally unconvincing when asked about her background and suitability for leading a labour party.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118830209#Comment_118830209

Pretty much summarises her dreadful interview.

She wants to see the minimum wage raised by 30 cent an hour.

Not 1 euro, not even 50 cent, but just 30 cent.

No point of a Labour Party. She belongs in FG.