General Irish politics discussion thread

FrancieBrady · 11-09-2023 12:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121096481#Comment_121096481

Like FF or FG, SF's management of their relationships with other countries are their own affair.

Would I be happy about our relationships with the Saudi regime or Israel.

No, I wouldn't.

So a SF delegate said something about Cuba...so what exactly? Are they proposing joining Cuba in a military alliance?

The question for me as a voter is, will a government of this country end our neutrality and bring us into military alliances we have IMO no business being in? That question I will ask of FF FG The Greens SF or anyone else who looks for a mandate to govern in a GE.

Francis McM · 11-09-2023 1:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121090243#Comment_121090243

Correct, we do indeed shelter behind the NATO countries and enjoy the benefits of being a tax haven in the west while hanging off the coat-tails of others.

Loafing Oaf · 12-09-2023 8:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121094857#Comment_121094857

It's not really about the candidates. If the vote is there for SF to win a second seat in a constituency where they currently have one, they will find a candidate and they will very likely win. Here in Mayo the talk is SF's second candidate will be councillor Gerry Murray. He's been active in local politics for a long time but doesn't have a huge profile outside of SF and got 5% of FPV when he ran for the Dail in 2007. But I'd still put my house on him or whoever SF put up taking a second seat, especially since the constituency is back up to five seats.

rock22 · 13-09-2023 9:06am

@Loafing Oaf "It's not really about the candidates. If the vote is there for SF to win a second seat in a constituency where they currently have one, they will find a candidate"

But, famously, in the last election SF did not run enough candidates where the votes were there for a second seat. Which is possibly the reason the question was asked.

It is hard to see, with the opinion poll number, a new government that does not contain SF. My own view is, they should be given a chance. Their policies are certainly more in line with my left wing leanings. Will their performance match? Probably not. It seems to be an almost universal axiom of modern politics that politicians can never deliver all they promise.

The interesting thing is who will go into government with them.

Is there a role , for instance , for Labour or Social democrats. Or will the numbers mean they need the support of right wing parties like FF FG or the Greens?

If FF end up in government could this spell the end of them or will it spell the end for FG? Or will it inject new life into FF if they remain in Government?

Or will FF and FG and the Green manage to cobble enough support, perhaps with Labour and some independents, to keep SF out of government?

blanch152 · 13-09-2023 10:08am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121094857#Comment_121094857

A good question, the answer lies in the local elections, and that applies to all parties. If they don't throw up decent successful vote-winning councillors in the local elections, then they have a problem come general election time.

FrancieBrady · 13-09-2023 10:14am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121103751#Comment_121103751

FF are between a rock and a hard place.

I heard, just yesterday a high profile local FFer spitting fire about MM's 'infected' outburst.

The FF grassroots know, another term with FG is likely possible, but they also know the outcome of that will be that they grow support for SF. The bigger SF get the more likely their demise is.

blanch152 · 13-09-2023 10:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121096481#Comment_121096481

The neutrality of Sinn Fein and their supporters on here, while claimed as being a moral position, is simply nothing more than knee-jerk anti-Britishness. Laughably transparent nonsense has been posted supporting Sinn Fein's position.

The truth is that those who support Sinn Fein's position on neutrality have zero morals. They are prepared to support Sean Russell in his endeavours to get favours from Hitler and the Nazis as much as they are willing to support Chavez and Putin and Gadaffi before them, no matter how many people are killed by those tyrants and thugs.

Loafing Oaf · 13-09-2023 11:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121103751#Comment_121103751

But, famously, in the last election SF did not run enough candidates where the votes were there for a second seat. Which is possibly the reason the question was asked.

That's only because their slate of candidates was decided before the SF surge of the last few weeks of the campaign, which they could not realistically have seen coming. If they had started registering at 25% in the opinion polls even three months out from the election, they would have put forward enough candidates to capitalise on that anticipated vote share, even if a lot them were by necessity little-known and inexperienced.

blanch152 · 13-09-2023 11:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121104346#Comment_121104346

That surge came from the volatile section of the electorate. While it appears to have held steady and increased since then, the last two weeks of the next election campaign could swing wildly depending on whatever statements are made.

FrancieBrady · 13-09-2023 1:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121104346#Comment_121104346

Agree. It was a lapse which I can't see happening again.

Loafing Oaf · 13-09-2023 3:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121103997#Comment_121103997

And yet there has been little public backlash against Martin's comments from the more republican elements within FF. And you know why? Because he's still leaving the door open to coalition with SF and as far as they are concerned that's the bit that counts. All that stuff about SF 'infecting the younger generation'?

FrancieBrady · 13-09-2023 5:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121105603#Comment_121105603

Michael's door was always open. He just played us all to ensure he got the Taoiseach's job.

I'm sure as you say FF backbenchers will not publicly revolt when the door is always open.

My local FFer was enraged at MM making a future coalition deal more difficult and like a climbdown.

Loafing Oaf · 13-09-2023 5:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121105882#Comment_121105882

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/09/11/martin-rules-out-fianna-fail-deal-with-sinn-fein-after-next-election/

He's trying to give the impression of ruling out coalition with SF while not actually ruling it out. Saying there is a 'huge incompatibility' between the two parties does not rule out the possibility of said incompatibility somehow melting away after a couple of rounds of negotiation on government formation. But this approach won't work come the election campaign proper. FF's position on SF will be the first and possibly only item of business in every media interview with Martin until he clarifies his position.

ArmaniJeanss · 13-09-2023 5:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121104400#Comment_121104400

The trick, for any large party, is to put two candidates on the ballot at the time this decision has to be made (about 5 weeks before the election).

A second decision can be made about 10 days out based on public/private polling. Is your second candidate live or not, or is even your first candidate in trouble? Are you still chasing two seats or one seat? If the latter you can do a leaflet drop saying in this area we'd like you to Vote No 1 TOM, No 2 MARY. If necessary all leaflets in all areas can say Vote No 1 TOM if he is the preferred candidate and you have given up on winning two seats. But declaring two candidates early has at least left your options open. FG did this in Dublin West and pretty much abandoned Emer Currie at the last weekend to shore up Leo Varadkar. Needs must etc.

FrancieBrady · 13-09-2023 5:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121105919#Comment_121105919

You don't need to coach me on Michael's sleeveen record on who he will or will not coalesce with.

I agree BTW, fascinating election campaign incoming on that topic.

Francis McM · 13-09-2023 5:36pm

2 days ago Tanaiste Micheál Martin accused Sinn Féin of “infecting a new generation of young people”, among other things. He ruled out coalition with SF and it was interesting to see Eoin Ó Broin claim that Micheál Martin was "increasingly resorting to negative attacks on his party rather than trying to project a positive vision."

I am glad that the FF leader clarified that the "Uh Ah Up the RA chants" / shouting were insulting and offensive to the victims of violence, or words to that effect. I think MM will be attracting some traditional votes from FG, after Leo's past few years.

Loafing Oaf · 13-09-2023 5:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121105933#Comment_121105933

Pat Rabbitte tried to walk a similar line re FF in the run-up to the 2007 election, absolutely lambasting them in every interview but somehow finding a way of ducking the question when pressed about going into government with them, muttering something about 'the national interest' or whatever. I remember even Tubridy had a go:

"Is there any possibility that Labour will be going to government with Fianna Fail? Now I think the answer to this question has to be either yes or no."

"Well I've made my position on that perfectly clear."

blanch152 · 13-09-2023 5:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106056#Comment_121106056

Sinn Fein will be walking the same line themselves. Last time out they spent the two years before the elections saying that they wouldn't go into coalition with FG or FF, and then cried for weeks when they were left out of coalition talks.

It will be more difficult next time out, when if they are leading in the polls, they are going to be asked whether FG or FF is the preferable option.

Francis McM · 13-09-2023 5:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106056#Comment_121106056

So your point is that Irish politicians are not to be trusted? Many would agree with you. Another reason many would vote no for a U.I.

In fact many if not most politicians are not to be trusted anywhere.

Loafing Oaf · 13-09-2023 6:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106083#Comment_121106083

Micheal Martin is certainly not to be trusted on pre-election commitments given his record

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-micheal-martin-rules-out-fianna-fail-fine-gael-grand-coalition-1.4149063

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/martin-opens-the-door-to-coalition-with-sinn-fein/38941313.html

My own position is that it would be better if politicians didn't make these promises at all and left all options for government formation open but if they make them and then break them then they're bringing democracy into disrepute and treating voters with contempt.

rock22 · 13-09-2023 6:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106082#Comment_121106082

Have you any link to that. ? Because i clearly remember MMcD saying SF would talk with everyone

FrancieBrady · 13-09-2023 6:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106172#Comment_121106172

Michael is a part of the sleeveen tradition of politics here. It is time we matured a bit but I can't see it happening under the present leaderships of FF or FG. They'll play the word games again, get caught doing it and brazen it out.

As Rabitte (him again) said 'you say these things in an election campaign'. Or words to that effect.

Loafing Oaf · 13-09-2023 6:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106188#Comment_121106188

Actually re Rabitte and coalition with Fianna Fail, leaving aside other Labour pre-election promises, he did actually manage to walk the line and it's reasonable to expect voters to recognise that, i.e. he absolutely hammered FF but didn't in so many words rule out going into government with them. IIRC Joan Burton gave the game away after the 2007 election when she said the door to FF-Lab had to be left ajar in case it turned out to be the only possible government (as FF-SF might well be next time). It's when a politician explicitly rules out a particular partnership option before the election and flatly breaks their word afterward (As Martin did with an FF-FG coalition and seemed prepared to do re FF-SF) that politics and democracy are brought into disrepute.

FrancieBrady · 13-09-2023 7:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106238#Comment_121106238

One of the main reasons FF can't get themselves out of the polling doldrums is the distrust of Martin in the general public. With the click of a mouse you can find evidence of him saying one thing if it suits and then doing the direct opposite.

Francis McM · 14-09-2023 10:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106362#Comment_121106362

Says the man whose heroes say they want an inclusive Ireland with equal respect etc, and then those heroes go and glorify / commemorate pira. I would have a lot more respect for, and trust in, the current FF leader Martin than I would in those who shout and chant uh ah Up the RA.

Good loser · 16-09-2023 12:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121106188#Comment_121106188

You must know that all Pat Rabbitte meant by that reference, was that policies (when complicated), in an election, have to be condensed to sound bites.

That man was a very high calibre politician imo.

Loafing Oaf · 16-09-2023 12:56am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121116866#Comment_121116866

Yeah but there are ways of doing that that don't involve outright deception. Rabbitte seemed to be saying it's okay to simplify things to a point where you're actively misleading people. Take the issue of child benefit cuts that prompted the question.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE_-Fp7lGSk

If Gilmore had said "Labour in government will fight to protect child benefit" or "Labour will resolutely oppose FG plans to cut child benefit", that would have been a legitimate deployment of 'Rabbitte's razor', the voters would have got the message, and it would just have been another forgettable election soundbite. Instead he made an absolute line-in-the-sand commitment that he probably knew Labour would never be able to honour and, what's almost worse, never properly apologised for it afterward, and in the process consigned Labour to the dustbin of history, or something very close to it.

Here's a guy who understands the enormity of a supposedly progressive party breaking pre-election promises

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDjRZ30SNo