General Irish politics discussion thread

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122359570#Comment_122359570

It leaves the door open for extremists because they do not need to build any consensus with other parties via a coalition. 

Hold on. Take a few steps back.

Extremist parties first have to win many seats to get a say. As we have seen, that isn't easy in an FPTP system, so how does an extremist party like the BNP win these seats in the first place?

And if they can't form a coalition, so what? They won't be in power.

Again, explain exactly, how does FPTP 'open the door' to extremists..

They just need to get into power even as a minority which very often happens in FPTP. 

How? They would need to outpoll the Labour party and the Tories, to take a UK example. Do you think that is easy?

The last time those 2 parties weren't the top 2, was back in the 1920s when Labour supplanted the Liberal Party as the centre-left broadchurch party of the UK.

PR is much more democratic and its need for negotiation and consensus building makes it very difficult for extremists to gain control of the government

More democratic is debatable, but yes you are half right as PR lends itself to multi-party governments, but as we have just seen in Holland, the PPV, the far-right party of that state are now in government. They are not the only example.

Not so with FPTP which requires little of no consensus.

Again, half right, as FPTP usually lends itself to one broad church centre-left/right party gaining most of the seats even on a minority of the vote. Parties don't need to compromise if they have an overall majority.

But this is not the same thing as letting the 'door open to extremists', in fact as I am trying to argue it is often a bulwark against it as extreme manifestos are usually rejected, e.g. Corbyn and centrist ones are accepted .e.g. Blair/Starmer

If the Tories for some mad reason installed Farage as leader, they will never win the next GE, as he is too extreme for most of the country.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122359290#Comment_122359290

France isn't really pr though. It's still single seat constituencies just with 2 rounds to weed out small vote getters

L1011

FG selection conventions have to be done by September 22nd; and everyones about to go on holiday so I'd expect we'll see any final retirements imminently - and Simon Coveney has confirmed his now.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361625#Comment_122361625

How many, who stood in 2020, are not standing again is it now, 11?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361654#Comment_122361654

This makes it 12 sitting FG/elected as FG (McHugh's FG status is questionable now) TDs.

I am still expecting Durkan to go also and there's rumours about some more.

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122358407#Comment_122358407

Was Thatcher a centrist? I would say she was anything but.

After all, 52% of the people voted for it, did they not?

52% of the portion of the electorate (which itself is a portion of the people) who turned out on the day.

Many of whom cast a protest vote and did not want to leave the EU.

Many more of whom did not understand the consequences of their vote (hardly a surprise as the Leavers broke electoral law on funding and lied with impunity) and since regret it.

It's notable that the people most affected by the vote - long-term EU residents in the UK - did not get a vote at all.

But yeah, it's democracy, for some debased devalution of the word democracy - just like FPTP. "Democracy in name only" if you prefer.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122360125#Comment_122360125

How is he extreme exactly?

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361952#Comment_122361952

Farage? Are you serious?

His party is a magnet for racists, bigot and islamophobes, to a degree that has embarrassed even the party itself. You may not have noticed his extremism but they certainly have.

He's a noted Putin fanboy. He has stated that he admires him as a political operator. Putin's political operations, of course, include assassinations, torture, the subversion of democracy, autocratic rule, media supression, widespread crony corruption and the invasion of neighbouring states; Nigel likes that kind of thing because he reckons it gets results.

He obsesses about illegal immigration to a degree out of all proportion to the actual signficance of the issue.

He wants to impose a punitive levy on businesses that (entirely legitimately) employ “foreign workers”.

He leans heavily into culture wars at the expense of freedom of thought and opinion. He want schools to "ban transgender ideology” and to enforce a “patriotic” model of education which means, among other things, that “any teaching about a period or example of British or European imperialism or slavery must be paired with the teaching of a non-European occurrence of the same to ensure balance.”

He wants to end "woke policing", whatever that is.

He wants to "reclaim Britain", which according to his manifesto involves indulging post-COVID-19 paranoia about the World Health Organization, the World Economic Forum, and the declining use of cash currency.

His entire politics is based on stoking fear, anger and division.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361074#Comment_122361074

Yea, France is a bit of a mad system.

Round 2 is for those with buyers remorse and I guess it makes people think harder on their choices.

In Round 1, unless someone gets 50% of the vote, they go to Round 2.

It's like FPTP but with some guardrails and a higher threshold to be elected.

Again though it favours more centrist parties in the long run. Extreme parties who do well in round 1 can be ganged up on, and outvoted in round 2.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361625#Comment_122361625

Will be interesting who they put up for the nomination.

Will it be Buttimer again, or will Shane O'Callgahan get a chance? He is much younger than Buttimer who isn't all that popular.

Will also be the first time in 43 years a Coveny was not up for election in that constituency.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362054#Comment_122362054

I think it's somewhere in between FPTP and STV.

In round 2, if it's apparent that your favoured candidate has no hope of being elected (or if your favoured candidate has withdrawn) you can think about who you would like instead, and vote for them — effectively you get to express a second preference.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361943#Comment_122361943

I am not re-debating Brexit, it's been done to death.

But the idea was put forward that Brexit was the result of FPTP, which ignored the actual large groundswell of opinion that was in favour of it, and in a PR system, that support would have coalesced to a party more aligned to its values and would have had a large number of seats in Westminister.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362073#Comment_122362073

Yea, that is a good way of looking at it.
While its technically an FPTP system, the 2 rounds offer a 2nd preference for those who want to change their mind or see their candidate dumped out of it in the 1st round.

Channel 4 did a piece on PR vs FPTP recently.

As always its a trade off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uND8O3sjr1c

Water John

Will John Mullins be the replacement for Simon Coveney?

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362054#Comment_122362054

I much prefer PR-STV obviously but for the likes of the UK, it wouldn't be the worst first step for Westminster elections to adopt the two-round system.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122361664#Comment_122361664

It creates a great opportunity for Harris to reinvent his party with a new image, new leader, new candidates.

It is a pity that O'Gorman is not doing the same.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362120#Comment_122362120

I thought he was going to run in Cork East, but I may be mistaken.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362050#Comment_122362050

Any politician opposed to teaching kids about " transgenderism" , can't be all bad

Hotblack Desiato

We're now at the "but he got the trains to run on time" stage 🙄

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362065#Comment_122362065

Buttimer will almost certainly be going for it. He got unlucky in the past when his home patch in Bishopstown got split between CNC and CSC. After the recent boundary review it's all back in CSC again. There's an extra seat in the constituency as well so they very well could run two candidates and since O'Callaghan is from a different part of the constituency it could very well be him as the running mate. Des Cahill might throw his hat in the ring as well though.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362120#Comment_122362120

Surely they want to win the seat? He was a very poor MEP candidate, can't see how he'd fare better in a dail election...

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362655#Comment_122362655

Dear Christ.

Why are you right-wingers so obsessed with other people's genitalia?

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362694#Comment_122362694

It would be funny if it wasn't so terrifying.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362228#Comment_122362228

Indeed - Might be a first step in the right direction for them,

Go to ranked choice ,where it's still single seat but you give your ranked choice and then if no one gets to 50.1% you exclude all but the top two and allocate the secondary choices of the excluded votes.

They use that in the US in a few States - Maine and Alaska for sure and perhaps a few others.

It's what gave the Alaska House seat to the Democrats over Palin a while back.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362815#Comment_122362815

It's also a pretty instructive use of language too, isn't it? I guess it's easier to disassociate the concept of helping the well-being and safety of humans, looking for paths to their own happiness, if you can use a term that makes it sound like a movement or a cult. It's patently and intentionally dehumanising language.

Anyway, off topic I know.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362861#Comment_122362861

I'm confused. What's the RCV suggestion in response to?

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362861#Comment_122362861

Single seats is rubbish, regardless of how you pick the winner.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122363382#Comment_122363382

Don't disagree in the slightest , but as an intermediate step on the journey from FPTP to fully functional PR it might be useful.

A move to full PR would require blowing up all of their constituencies and changing how they vote all at the same time which a lot of UK voters might see as too great a change in a single step.

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122363732#Comment_122363732

The Scottish and the Welsh already use the additional member system for their devolved governments. They use the GOAT that is PR-STV in the north. They used use the alternative vote for mayoral elections until the tories did away with that.

The British can handle a new system. The big thing would be to ensure it's independently devised and controlled, avoiding the perception of gerrymandering or collusion.

It'll never happen though.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122362100#Comment_122362100

In FPTP about one third of the seats are safe, a donkey with the right colour rosette would win. (Here multiple seats means local voters can override parachute candidates.)

In most others it's a two horse race, there is literally no point in voting for a third candidate.

In seats with three or more contenders the transferable vote means you don't have to second guess who others will likely vote for.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122358215#Comment_122358215

*I say that as a Green supporter

The UK Green party got 4 seats from 1,841,888 votes in 2024 in Westminster.

In 2015 the DUP got 184,260 votes and 8 seats. Twice as many seats on a tenth of the vote.

Brussels Sprout

Say the next government is made up of Independant Ireland and FF/FG. Would everyone all of a sudden be happy that the populist right is in government, where they make policy and legislation to row back on this like clean air and water, public transport, abortion, divorce, drunk driving

Divorce is enshrined in the constitution anyway so that's just silly to mention. No government is going to touch abortion for a generation either.

If Independent Ireland get into power with FF & FG then their potential to bring in unpopular nonsense will be severely curtailed. Realistically it would likely just mean that foot-dragging on climate issues gets increased and anything seen as being too "woke" wouldn't see the light of day.

moon2

Would everyone all of a sudden be happy that the populist right is in government, where they make policy and legislation to row back on this like clean air and water, public transport, abortion, divorce, drunk driving

To be honest, I'd be happy if Independent Ireland were in government with FF, FG or both, and then they proposed these things for a vote. The new policies would fairly obviously not pass, and the optics of attempting to row back such popular legislation would likely tank their vote amongst the swing voters. They'd be a 1 shot coalition party.

This is one of the stronger points about our voting system - a minor party has minor power and can't do these kinds of things with the support of the majority party, who has the majority of the power by virtue of obtaining the majority of the popular vote.

Augme

Rowing back on abortion and divorce would require a party being in charge of department of Health and Justice. A minor party like Independent Ireland would never been given those. They end up with transports and could easily see investment in public transport and progress public transport policies being decimated then. As we have seen with FG involvement with trying to dismantle the Dublin City transport plan, they'd be in favour of that as well so there's be.liyyle objection to a car first policy in a FFG-II coalition.

Water John

II don't offer answers to anything. I call them the Ballygobackwards Party. A crystalisses of what they are, a new Soc Dem Cllr is seeking to remove prayers from the start of each Cork County Council meeting, II come out opposing it before there's any discussion. A variant on Ulster says NO.

I'm not vehemently against prayers, but I would have a rational discussion on it. Do we really follow through on the separation of religion and state?

Hotblack Desiato

Rowing back on abortion rights is electoral death and everyone knows it. Renua turned into crank central for a reason.

Hotblack Desiato

@Water John we talk a good game about being a secular republic but in reality there is no separation of church and state in Ireland, almost 95% of our primary schools are religious controlled despite being fully state funded, and they indoctrinate kids with the state’s blessing.

Michael “Opus Dei” Woods decided the taxpayer would pick up the vast majority of the RCC’s abuse compensation and that was that. €1bn+ and counting.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122376214#Comment_122376214

Why would you need a praying session before a political meeting?

Would it just be Catholic or Christian prayers or, for example, would there also be prayers from the Quran?

Hotblack Desiato

I’m thinking of setting up a religion with prayers of minimum length one hour, then forcing the councils to recognise it because it’s sectarianism if they don’t 😎

dulpit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122376693#Comment_122376693

I think that was one of the issues raised. It should either be fully ecumenical or not be there at all, but currently it's just Christian.

Brussels Sprout

Seems a bit out of place in this day and age.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122376168#Comment_122376168

I have to disagree there. The biggest obstacle to public transport is Sinn Fein wavering on the subject, the latest being the stupid ridiculous idea to revive the Clongriffin rail link.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122384032#Comment_122384032

Of course you'd disagree. Despite being in government, despite FG controlling Dublin city Council, despite a FG Minister very vocal pleas to stop the Dublin City transpor plan tpostponed, it is still somehow SFs fault. 😂😂😂

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122384032#Comment_122384032

That's some degree of myopia to look at the transport infrastructure in this country and conclude it's Sinn Fein's fault. You do realise how ludicrous the statement is, assuming you're not trolling?

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122384032#Comment_122384032

Can we have examples please, of how SF are "the biggest obstacle to public transport"?

gmisk

Enjoyed the RTE doc The Locals I have to say Malachy Steenson came across as a right miserable looper usual buzzwords, Brian Garrigan a complete lunatic, but decent people like Daniel Ennis getting in gives you some hope for the future!

Sam Russell

I think O'Gorman should come out and inform the nation of exactly the process for IP applicants. eg - they are identity checked, fingerprinted, photographed, checked with EU database, etc. etc.

That way, the disinformation merchants will know the truth before their lies start.

corkie

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1813295005110247697

With only 20 incumbent TD's as mentioned earlier in thread, FG need new blood for the GE.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122389391#Comment_122389391

Harris is looking to promote a fresh new brand image for FG. It works both ways, if he gets back into government, he can claim new ideas and new blood, if he ends up in opposition, he won't be stuck with old TDs who have no chance in 5/6 years time of getting elected.

blackwhite

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122389391#Comment_122389391

The recent locals have made it a bit easier for him, as there's a pool of councillors to draw from.

Brussels Sprout

Yeah I wouldn't be too worried for FG. They have a rake of councillors with experience at winning elections will likely be crawling over one another to get a shot at all these Dail vacancies.