Is crypto era over?

Dohnjoe

2013: Crypto goes crazy, hype, in the headlines, BTC hits 1k

Bear market

2017: Crypto goes crazy, hype, in the headlines, BTC hits 20k

Bear market

2021: Crypto goes crazy, hype, in the headlines, BTC hits 60k

Bear market

Usual disclaimer: the past isn't an indicator of the future, even if there is another bull, we have no idea if prices will even break ATH, etc. However having been through the last 10 years, the psychology never changes. It's not like people have stopped going to casinos.

Potatoeman

https://twitter.com/General_Shill/status/1591996096876007424?t=z7l3YHGg8T4bOme0yM5qNw&s=08

GreeBo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119861041#Comment_119861041

Define "money" for me?

Crypto is no more an investment than fiat currency trading is.

Banks or fiat currencies don't and haven't collapsed? How is the Shekel working out? There are plenty of FIAT currencies that have come and gone along with plenty of banks.

Furze99

Very little coverage in the general media to date of the bankrupting of crypto companies. There seems to be a collapse in confidence in the concept of crypto and investors looking to sell as quickly as possible. Little financial substance to the concept and very concerning accounts of financial shenanigans to give a look of apparent structure. Has the look of a giant ponzi scheme and those that got in and sold out have made their money, leaving suckers to take the hit.

But will it have an impact on economies in general and the ordinary citizen?

Mucashinto

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872237#Comment_119872237

I genuinely feel sorry for CZ if he's going to be the patsy they pin this on.

There's been a couple of insane threads on twitter showing the involvement of the usual big financial players (Goldman etc) and they're getting removed at a quick rate. This one still up here is all speculation & conjecture but still, **** hell, that Bankman-Fried family...they get around!

https://twitter.com/JagoeCapital/status/1590751676105125888?s=20&t=hM3ClRFSAr0p_jLuw9vngQ

My current thinking: Glenn Ellison == Satoshi 🙂 The whole thing was created by behavioural economists in the (ultimately correct) view they could 100% predict human behaviour (and so make an absolute shedload of money) in a market if they 1) had some control to affect prices (so unregulated and have some control over exchanges/price movement) and 2) the underlying assets could not be linked to any real world effectors like revenue or profits etc. ergo BTC.

I've gone full tinfoil hat 🙂

What a week/two years

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872486#Comment_119872486

I wouldn’t feel too bad for CZ, he turned down the OTC trade of FTT for $22. He picked his moment to stick the knife in. Not the FTX deserve any sympathy, you don’t dip into customer funds. The questions will be about how interrelated all these people are. Genslers name coming up in connection to people working at FTX is not good for him, people are also looking into his involvement in Silver trading and possible insider trading in it from a few years ago.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872486#Comment_119872486

People who found themselves on the wrong side of this did so because of the kind of BS you just illustrated.

Firstly, financial institutional do not trade on their own account. Financial regulation and the foundations and institutional investors have seen to that. Yes they facilitate their clients who want to deal in this just the same as they do in lots of other kinds of high risk situations. But it does not matter to them which way it goes, they will still get the same cut. They are also interested in the use of the technology underly crypto and they invest in research and development of this technology. But that is where it ends. And I'm saying that as someone how held senior positions in banking in mainland Europe for over three decades.

As for behavioural economists, people struggle to organise a christening, a wedding or a funeral, never mind something as big as this. This great delusion formed and grew just like every other great delusion in history, the most notable being 'tulip mania'. I see crypto as an automated version of tulip mania, but far more dangerous because the very automation that made it possible will make a crash happen even faster.

You make money in investing by taking cold, calculated unemotional decisions. Group think, following trends, listening to the talking heads etc. is for the patsy, the people who ultimately you are going to make the money from. They will happily sell you high valued assets for a song and buy crap at a premium all because their little information bubble says so. It's up to you do decide if you want to be the patsy or not.

Dasein

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872322#Comment_119872322

if your philosophy in life is to invest based on the collapse of, say, the US Dollar then i think you have to accept the following risk profile:

You will have an employment life of about 40 to 50 years; by the last 10/15 of those years you really need to have built up a significant amount of your 'lifetime capital' because you have to heavily reduce your risk taking as your active employment years wind down... so, in my experience, you've got about 25 years where you can take real financial risk with your investments - real leverage etc. If you think it's a good idea to take investment positions, or back investment theories, that depend upon those 25 years happening to run coincident with the collapse of the largest fiat currency on earth, then, I wish you good luck - because you will certainly need it.

Dasein

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119871938#Comment_119871938

you needed increased participation - and particularly increased leverage - to fuel those price runs

large institutions will not step back into this space now, large PE, large Pension Funds are now gone - without them you're going to lose a ton of liquidity which will see increased vol but the big bull run days are over

I mean you see people talking about cold storage and all that stuff - the price cannot go hard bid from people who stick 20 BTC on a USB stick and leave it in their safe - the thing requires constant network effect growth

Mucashinto

If this guy is right

https://twitter.com/hellspawncrypto/status/1525575167027695616?s=20&t=pyeMHUqBoFWWDd13cU8rrg

and most of the 'super cycle' price movement was faked, which is not out of the realms of possibility surely, how can it come back from this. Or at least how long would it take. People have short memories alright and there will inevitably be new entrants again who want to get rich quick but surely the well runs dry at some stage. Could have just been too greedy and killed the goose. Will have to wait and see who's actually lost big here, still no release of FTX's biggest creditors yet.

For me BTC is still the only coin where the network effect will work imo (all linked to it as an immutable store of value). Miners & investors happy to see the price go up and nobody uses it to transact so that's irrelevant. With the others, price goes exponential - miners happy, investors happy, users fucked? Always going to be the issue that 1 of the 3 parties is disadvantaged surely? Seems like the tech and the price have to be separated out for the other blockchains to actually gain adoption.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872766#Comment_119872766

Ultimately price volatility is all the matters, that's the real attraction. Even if Eth never touches ATH again, as long as it can drop 85%, then pick up 20x for no real intrinsic reason - then that's all people want.

Sorry to say this, but it's the "stock market" for stupid people. There's often little logic to it. Which again, increases the attraction and feeds it.

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872896#Comment_119872896

The dataset is 1.89% of all trades? An the 98.1% is of that 1.89% set?

So this would indicate a smidgen of dishonesty (or small enough to be considered genuine errors), hardly "most" of the super cycle

I'd be wary of anyone declaring themselves the defender of cyber security, and diverting from that point deep into politics

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872977#Comment_119872977

I think a lot of it is to do with the younger generation feeling they need to hit a home run to be comfortable and buy a home. Old fashioned 6% a year in traditional investments are not gonna do that.

Mucashinto

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873091#Comment_119873091

EDIT: Yeah, you're probably right.

Like I say, my tinfoil hat is firmly on atm. No idea what to believe now tbh. Just madness 🙂

Is FTX/SBF the only guy to not run when **** hits the fan? And to actually double down and see if you can get away with the last bit left (which is surely nothing compared to what you had at one stage). While everyone's watching. Just wtf.

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873227#Comment_119873227

No worries, I've only just glanced at that twitter post so not saying I'm accurate here either - nothing wrong with having the tin foil hat on from time to time, though I think you've offended Jim, not sure exactly why but maybe he has a soft spot for Goldman 😯

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873177#Comment_119873177

It's not really an investment, it's a reshuffling of wealth without anything of substance being produced, but a lot of people don't seem to grasp that.

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119873177#Comment_119873177

Or watching too many influencers selling the dream/fantasy of getting rich quick.

Dasein

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119872977#Comment_119872977

I agree.

People will trade it; I'll trade it myself.

But the "have fun staying poor" clowns; or the endless people who don't know cmos from sea moss, lecturing comp sci graduates on how we "just don't understand the tech", is now finished, finito, fin, mort.

It's just like trading beanie babies or rare sneakers - nothing more, nothing less.

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119875224#Comment_119875224

Would have to disagree, it might be way off yet but finance will be decentralised, people of the future will obtain mortgages, gain interest on savings, and pay for goods via decentralised exchanges.

There aren't many requirements for this:

Coins are safe (already achievable with cold storage)

Coin valuation is stable, or somewhat stable (yet to be achieved)

Coins can seamlessly purchase goods/services (yet to be achieved, seamlessly anyways)

Holders have complete trust in DEX (yet to be achieved)

The day will come when banks are obsolete, money is an item that is based on trust, and that trust does not depend on physical objects, or financial institutions such as bank as we know them today.

maninasia

Yep. As far as I know almost all DEX have performed very well. Their record is much better than centralized projects.

Platforms such as UNISWAP and AAVE etc

You control your own wallet and risk is dramatically lowered.

Dasein

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119876544#Comment_119876544

Personally, I doubt all of that.

But, as I said, people really need to be aware of their investment horizon...

I've worked in finance for a very long time - part of which included launching a hedge fund that had to get fully regulated - it took about 3 years and millions of euro to achieve that ... so that informs me that the time it would take to effectively upend the entire financial system in the manner you suggest (ignoring whether that's actually realistic) would take a minimum, IMO, of about 25 years. If you're 30 years old today then I suspect you're risking wasting much of your most productive years on something that might happen just as your ability to take risk is winding down. People need to be aware of these things, life can be hard enough when the chips fall your way - but if you're fighting the tide for 10+ years then it can get really difficult; even the capital losses that people have taken in the last couple of years could prove very difficult to recoup.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119876544#Comment_119876544

There needs to be a level of trust for loans though does there not?

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877373#Comment_119877373

Yes, of course, same for current lending, the bank assesses the risk of loaning you money, asks what collateral you have and decides how much it can risk to lend you.

The bank has trust in you to pay it back, but understands that loaning money is a risk.

So, for decentralised loaning its the same trust and the same risk.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877733#Comment_119877733

How do you enforce repossession of a house with decentralised finance? Pretty much everything I have seen with Defi involves having to post collateral equal to or exceeding the amount borrowed.

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877832#Comment_119877832

How does the bank go about repossession, it attempts to enforce a binding contract. The bank then has to pay lawyers to try reposes the house.

Then the challenge for Defi is how to seize collateral. In this case if the deeds are digitised and stored then this can be achieved.

dartboardio

Crypto isn't an 'era' or a phase... It's only the beginning and people should be in for the long run.

People think just because it's had a **** year that it's down for good...

lol. if only things left lasting effects that quickly.

HerrKuehn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877908#Comment_119877908

I am struggling to see what problem this is trying to solve though. In what ways will it be better for consumers? I get some people really like the idea of it, but what is the point? Same with bank deposits etc, who would guarantee them under this new decentralised system? In what way would it better than what we have?

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119877733#Comment_119877733

There is still going to be centralization somewhere, most likely the owner of the blockchain/exchange. In the case of a mortgage, for example, what does decentralization mean and how does it work?

erlichbachman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119878036#Comment_119878036

On one hand you're stating you don't se the problem its trying to solve, then asking who would guarantee the deposits.

One of the problems its trying to solve is that somebody needs to guarantee deposits in banks!!

How is it better for consumers, well if we have 100 customers of a bank, and that bank makes money off those customers whilst they bank, then what happens if we remove the bank and those 100 customers could still continue banking, they would save on banking fees, or at least any fees would be divided between themselves.

AnF Chuckie egg

Traditional banking uses a clearing house system, as in all transactions are eventually validated by the Bank.

Decentralised banking would be exactly that, decentralised. For that to work there has to be in place a trustless system to validate the transactions similar to what happens with transactions on the Bitcoin network.

However after 15 years of Bitcoin has there really been that much progress other than being touted as some obscure form of store of Wealth. I doubt in 15 more years the Cryptography behind Bitcoin will still be secure or fit for purpose.

And before you start churping about Ethereum or some variant, that too falls down on the cat and mouse cryptography problem of Security verses usability. The more secure you make the encryption the slower and less usable it becomes for any type of transaction especially contracts.

So back to the title of this thread, is Crypto over, well the crypto in cryptocurrency is cryptography and that has been with us with over 4000 years!! but we all still put our letters into envelopes to hide the contents instead of using cryptography for the same reasons, to make secure for everyday use takes too much work