6 nations 22

lawrencesummers · 31-01-2022 8:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561331#Comment_118561331

Shrewd move Mr.Buffett

Dubinusa · 31-01-2022 8:47pm

The reliance on Sexton is concerning. But, he's the only option really. There's nobody else close. This could be our downfall! But, we can only play who we have and it seems like Carberry and Carty are the controllers atm. The drop off to these players is big enough to be worrying.

But, There's some hope. Munster's prospects look very good! Will they step up though? Or will they make the grade for the world cup? Sexton at his age, is phenomenal and still class. But, for how long? Carberry is decent, Carty up and down and then.....

31-01-2022 9:10pm

Wales could sneak the tournament yet if Wyn Jones' enormous face can take a few more hits again to win red cards

PTH2009 · 31-01-2022 10:27pm

France to win the championships

Ireland for the triple crown (yes I can be positive ha)

Usual wooden spoon for Italy with Wales, England and Scotland having average campaigns

lawrencesummers · 31-01-2022 10:32pm

Interesting point made on dublintalk off the ball earlier that while France are favorites they have not won a championship in 11 years.

Its a new squad in a lot of ways that they have but its not a squad that has won anything (yet) and that counts for something.

OldRio · 31-01-2022 10:36pm

I think Scotland will surprise a few.

bilston · 01-02-2022 1:05am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118562413#Comment_118562413

Totally agree.

They've England and France at home.

Anything can happen when Scotland play Wales.

I'm sure they'll beat Italy.

They finish up in Dublin.

fitz · 01-02-2022 1:31am

Far too much reasoned discussion so far.

I reckon we'll give Wales an absolute spanking this weekend.

Thrashssacre · 01-02-2022 1:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563210#Comment_118563210

I actually agree with the shape Wales are in right now This should be a 20 point win.

Roxxers · 01-02-2022 3:06am

fun russ is Scotland's problem will win **** all with his ego

Dubinusa · 01-02-2022 6:10am

Scotland can be good, if things go right for them. I think they can be a surprise. I can't see them playing top notch for consecutive matches. They can be up or down. They should give England a tough outing.

lawrencesummers · 01-02-2022 7:02am

I can see them beating England, home advantage, finn russell and their recent results against the english are good.

Some of the english players are just over rated, their team selection will be interesting.

As far as us hammering wales i dont see it. They are lucky champions, but champions none the less.

So much International rugby can be decided by one or two major incidents, like a Red card a sin binning, an injury to a key player, if none of those crop up we are good enough to win but a split second head hit can change a game completely.

TRC10 · 01-02-2022 7:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561813#Comment_118561813

I really think it would be smarter to have Sexton finishing games.

I mean think about it. Why is it considered better to have your inferior out half closing out games, which is what happens because Sexton rarely, if ever plays 80 minutes anymore. And with Sexton there is a strong chance he's forced off early anyway, and you potentially have Carty or Carbery playing 60/70 mins?

So why not start Carty or Carbery and then bring on Sexton on 50 minutes. The last 30 minutes is where the game is won.

South Africa bring on their strongest front row just after HT. They even did it before HT v Scotland.

We just assume it's best to start with your strongest team and finish with your weaker team, because that's how we've always done it. But is that really the best way of doing it?

Former Former Former · 01-02-2022 8:54am

In that model you have the weaker player on the field for more minutes so you're less likely to win.

aloooof · 01-02-2022 8:54am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563436#Comment_118563436

”The last 30 minutes is where the game is won.”

Not true. Just look at the England game in the 6N last year. And even if it was true, you can certainly do enough to lose a match in the first 50 mins to the point you’re out of contention in the last 30.

We just assume it's best to start with your strongest team and finish with your weaker team, because that's how we've always done it. But is that really the best way of doing it?

Yes. Because your then have your strongest team on the pitch for longer.

lawrencesummers · 01-02-2022 8:58am

In the last two World Cup cycles we have won the 6 nations the year before the world cup, 2018 & 2014.

In the world cup cycle before that France won a GS in 2010.

What we are really really good at is peaking a year before the world cup so we can all board the hype train for the WC.

Its the year before the world cup, So history says its either a French GS or an Irish championship.

Also in 2010 England and Scotland was a draw in Murrayfield. I Might have a small few bob on that this year.

stephen_n · 01-02-2022 8:59am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563436#Comment_118563436

Tactically subing Sexton on is a real gamble. If he goes down after 10 minutes you have a replacement to come on. If he goes down 10 minutes after coming on as a sub. You’re completely goosed.

Scotland will be Scotland, they might win a couple of games, they might not. As much as we rely on Sexton too much. They rely on flaky Finn more. Capable of mercurial brilliance but not any consistency. They will as always, flatter to deceive.

lawrencesummers · 01-02-2022 9:37am

Anytime russell does something brilliant he should be taken straight off, because the confidence goes to his head and then he is guaranteed to do something terrible soon after.

TRC10 · 01-02-2022 9:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563525#Comment_118563525

Or, you have your stronger player on the field for the most important minutes.

The Wales game last year is a good example of how having an inferior 10 finishing, can lose you a game. (Sexton was forced off injured). I'm not saying Burns should have started that game, but it shows how tight games are won and lost in the last 20 minutes. Games where we beat teams like England out of the gate and have it wrapped up early are rare enough in the 6N.

I'd say there aren't many who'd say that Anscombe is a better 10 than Biggar. But when Wales won the GS in 2019, in all but the Italy game, Anscombe started and Biggar came on and finished the game at 10, and played a massive part in winning the France and England games. They wouldn't have won those games if Anscombe was closing them out.

In an ideal world you'd have an equally good replacement or your 10 plays 80 minutes most games, but Sexton just doesn't do that.

Say for arguments sake, Carbery starts in Paris and is having an absolute mare. There's no rule that says you can't bring Sexton on after 20 or 30 minutes. So it would also give us an insurance policy in that sense.

aloooof · 01-02-2022 10:15am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563649#Comment_118563649

"I'm not saying Burns should have started that game, but it shows how tight games are won and lost in the last 20 minutes."

You're overlooking the fact that those games may not be very tight by the time you come to 20 mins left if the inferior players start.

ionadnapokot · 01-02-2022 10:17am

First 20mins is more important than the last 20mins. Scoreboard pressure.

Ireland usually always loose in the 6N unless they score the first try. What set Wales apart last year (apart from playing v 14 men) was their ability to hang in after conceding the first tries. in fairness its a trait they also displayed during Gatland's tenure.

TRC10 · 01-02-2022 11:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563767#Comment_118563767

Starting Carty or Carbery wouldn't cause us to be out of the game on 50 minutes. In the 2 'big' games they've started (Aus 2018 and Japan 2019 respectively) we were winning when they came off.

If starting without Sexton means it's over as a contest on 50 minutes, then Ireland has much bigger problems than Carty or Carbery.

Former Former Former · 01-02-2022 11:31am

In the last 6N, Sexton missed one game through injury, played 80 minutes in three and 71 mins in the other. I think his tendency to come off early is overstated.

He got a HIA against NZ after 60 mins, but we were leading when he went off and finished the game ahead.

What problem are we trying to solve here?

aloooof · 01-02-2022 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118564101#Comment_118564101

It could easily be the difference between being ahead and being behind, tho. Or further ahead / further behind.

Ask any of the players; they'll all want to start. There's a reason for that.

Add in stephen's point about a sub getting injured, it makes even less sense.

irelandrover · 01-02-2022 11:43am

Is there a team in the world who doesn't start their best outhalf? With the front row its less clear because the split is normally about 50 minutes / 30 minutes for the first choice/second choice.

Your outhalf can play the full 80 so why wouldn't you start them?

Bazzo · 01-02-2022 12:59pm

Front row is not comparable because a front row player can be subbed back on.

kuang1 · 01-02-2022 1:23pm

Scotland might pip Wales for 4th this year, and that's Scotlands ceiling.

Their depth is v v poor so I'm not having any of this "Scotland could go well this year" guff.

It's France's to lose. If we could get a LBP or better in Paris it should make for a classic last day of rugby on the 19th March.

England happy to build for next year and come in 3rd.

molloyjh · 01-02-2022 1:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118561944#Comment_118561944

We have Peyper this weekend. We could disembowel Wyn Jones and he’d say play on.

molloyjh · 01-02-2022 1:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118563649#Comment_118563649

In Cardiff last year Sexton went off on 69 mins. We were behind 21-13 when he went off. We didn’t lose that game because of what happened in the last 11 mins. We lost that game because of a red card and a number of unforced errors from numerous players, including Sexton, over the course of the 80. That game absolutely doesn’t highlight what you think it highlights.

Also, many people would say that the most important part of the game is the last 10 before half time and the first 10 after. In some games the first 20 is where a game is won and lost (Clermont-Leinster in 2017 for example). This idea that tight games are win and lost in the last 20 seems a bit obvious. But the first 60 is what dictates whether games are or are not tight. If we need Sexton to come on to close out a tight game then surely there’s a strong chance that playing Sexton from the start would have prevented it from being tight in the first place?

Again, with that Wales game you are referring to, you seem to think that we lost it with Carty in the pitch for 11 mins and him being unable to close it out. But if he was starting then surely by that logic we’d just have been further behind by the time Sexton came on. And if Sexton couldn’t get us in front after 69 mins then how would he have been able to turn around a bigger deficit in 20-30 mins? There really is an enormous hole in the logic here.

lawrencesummers · 01-02-2022 1:57pm

I would love to be witness to the person that explains to johnny how he is clearly the better outhalf but he is starting the game on the bench.

Im sure the reaction would be measured, as in your going to be measured for a coffin afterwards.

CONSI · 01-02-2022 2:04pm

We play Italy on 27th so surely someone other than sexton plays that game, Carberry with Carthy on the bench, Sexton can then have a months break before England game, depending on where we are after 1st two and england game than maybe someone else to play v scotland on 19th

01-02-2022 2:20pm

England fan, can’t see past France personally with games agains England and Ireland at home.

Looks like Eddie is happy to sacrifice this year to prep for the World Cup, probably a third place finish which would be a decent result considering all the changes, anything else is a bonus.

lawrencesummers · 01-02-2022 2:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118565016#Comment_118565016

If France are champions then Third place is optimistic if you ask me.

That means getting past either Ireland who are going well, or wales who are champions or Scortland who england have to play away from home.

I think 4th would be a good finish for Jones tbh, 3rd would be excellent but 5th is entirely possible.

01-02-2022 2:41pm

Would be fairly confident of beating Wales at home and Italy away , I would make the Scotland away game and Ireland at home 50/50 so let’s say win one of them and that’s 6 points. I like this England team, plenty of unknowns but some exciting players and playing a more expansive game. Don’t get me wrong there are some concerns, but even beating SA in the autumn with such a changed team and coming under massive pressure was a really good win!

TRC10 · 01-02-2022 3:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118564774#Comment_118564774

Again, with that Wales game you are referring to, you seem to think that we lost it with Carty in the pitch for 11 mins and him being unable to close it out. But if he was starting then surely by that logic we’d just have been further behind by the time Sexton came on. And if Sexton couldn’t get us in front after 69 mins then how would he have been able to turn around a bigger deficit in 20-30 mins? There really is an enormous hole in the logic here.

I never said anything about Carty playing v Wales last year. I think you meant Burns.

And no, because if Burns started the match and played as poorly as he did, he'd be hauled off for Sexton after 20/30 minutes if need be, before the match was out of sight.

But as I said, I wasn't saying Burns should have started. I'm basing this on the assumption that if Carty or Carbery started, we'd be well in the contest on 50 minutes which I think is a fair assumption.

aloooof · 01-02-2022 3:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118565844#Comment_118565844

You're advocating for a plan which may require someone to be hauled off after 20/30 minutes. That doesn't sound like a good plan, whatever way you look at it.

Dubinusa · 01-02-2022 4:42pm

I can't see us beating Wales if Sexton doesn't start! I don't have much faith in Carty or Carberry, which I think is our Achilles heel. Our lack of depth at 10 is worrying. I could be wrong and both players could go well. But, my feeling is that if a match is close, these lads aren't good enough. They are the best options atm. That's what concerns me.

Former Former Former · 01-02-2022 4:59pm

Does this only apply at out-half?

Or should we be starting Healy, Bealham and Murray?

aloooof · 01-02-2022 6:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118566240#Comment_118566240

Agreed. I understand the calls for starting Carbery/Carty if it's with regards minutes towards the RWC, but as a strategy to try help us win the particular game in question? It's completely illogical, imo.

If I had to choose between Sexton coming on and and we're chasing the game, or Carbery/Carty coming on and we're winning the game, I'd take the latter all day long.

I think even Carbery himself has come on in each of the 3 wins vs the All Blacks and helped us see them out? I'm not convince we'd have won any of them if he started.

Mr Burny · 01-02-2022 6:19pm

Eire big favourites v Welsh. -14 points on the handicap.

Dubinusa · 01-02-2022 6:20pm

It's good to point out the lack of depth at lh! I had forgotten. I agree that Healy starting wouldn't be ideal. I feel like he is fairly close to retirement. Bealham starting wouldn't be as big a problem. We are lacking depth in key areas. If Porter got injured, we'd be fucked.

The current crop of lh props among the provinces is not high quality, imo. It's anybody's guess as to the pecking order.

PTH2009 · 02-02-2022 2:04am

After Munster back in December it's hard to trust teams with a lot of players out

sydthebeat · 02-02-2022 10:29am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568769#Comment_118568769

Yeah... No

That was a fantastic result for munster but let's not discount the amount of senior players wasps were missing for that game.

18 missing due to injury and at least 4 missing due to covid.

It wasn't exactly the David versus goliath game the media made it out to be.

And this Wales team, while missing a lot of their squad to injury, are still coming with their first choice back line, and at least 4 of the 7 forwards would be automatic starters. It is on their bench that they will feel the pinch, and id never ever take a wales player in a red shirt for granted

molloyjh · 02-02-2022 10:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118569303#Comment_118569303

Don’t forget the Wasps red card too.

Wales haven’t won in Dublin (RWC warm up in 2015 aside) since 2012. Under Pivac they are 1 from 3 vs Ireland and that 1 required a red card and numerous unforced errors from Ireland to give them their 5 point win at home. They’ve a load of injuries. We showed a lot in November to suggest we’ve kicked on while Wales we’re at best mixed in their games.

They’ll be very combative and will probably feed off being written off over here a bit. But I just don’t see how or where they win this if we perform to our ability.