Sunday 30th January 2022

Could do with a change of luck - for the better :)

A quick look and gave a reasonable perusement to 4.00 Sedgefield,,

Think there are reasons enough to oppose the top three in handicap/betting here. I think Demi Sang wants further than the slightly extended 2m, or at least softer ground than the forecast good ground imo, at this minimal trip. Fame Valley is down in grade, but, from what he's shown, I think he needs soft as well. Set In Stone would be my pick of the top three, as can win at this level/trip/ground, but she's racing off a career high mark, and doesn't have any course/course and distance form that would make her of interest at her ~3/1 price,,

The Steward may want softer as well, and Baraboy's getting on at twelve..

Enough reasons to overlook the jollies, and a couple more besides, and I will side with SILKSTONE @ ~9/1, who is having his second run for his trainer Danny Brooke. Came a fair third over 2m on soft at Musselburgh lto, and has a few other placed efforts at this trip, from higher marks,, #Will do me here at 7s or bigger for an each way..

#cos I punts in shop; I'll have to wait til tomorrow to back him, and we all know how prices can fluctuate overnight/early morning (worse on Sundays, with de shoppes opening later)

😊 Gluck all

Outsider pick.. Plus some other opinions !

3.20 Fontwell

Had a look at this race, as I fink it's the very last race that Dai Burchell has a runner going in as a trainer; and that runner is in the shape of Adherence.. Cannot possibly make a case for him at all, and he's around 8/1 now, or thereabouts. If he gets much shorter, he's getting into 4 place lay territory imo..

Looked at a few more down bottom of handicap, and then looked at the ones at the top.. I was only about 5 horses down the list, and I had decent cases made for no's 1, 2 and 4. Of those, I think no 4 Midnight Glance is the value pick, and, as he doesn't appear guaranteed to stay, or that the race will suit, he's perhaps worth a small win only bet here @ ~15/2..

The two other horses in the market top five, Flying Nun and Antony, are opposable imo.. Don't know why Flying Nun is the joint ~10/3 fav - No idea why on form; perhaps her 2nd run in a handicap - though she didn't pull up any trees in that 1st handicap run (mebbe it was a 'visual thing' ), and I'd deffo rate her as a place lay bet, that is if she doesn't drift massive.. Up to evens I'd be 4 place laying her if I were on exchanges. I don't like Antony @ 4/1, because, although his last run was grand, he is after all, 12. Too old imo. If I was woke I might be tempted to back him at bigger than 5s, but I is prejudiced against the aged gee gee, as a rulee 😋

On tee t'outsider pick..

MESSAGE MAN 25/1 Boyles / Lads

Race is way way too hard to solve for me, so looking to build a case for something to come out of woodwork, and potentially be good enough to place, and consequently, also good enough to win this reasonably strong Class 5 Hurdle.. All that said, realistically Message Man may well finish out with washing. His first (of three in total) run was shoy8, and he was pulled up on heavy lto; but it's the middle run that gives cause for pause at likely prices. He weren't beat that too far over a similar trip and similar going, at Plumpton, last December gone. Will be his first run in a handicap too. Worth €1 ew, and that about it; though far from a forlorn hope, he is a speculative one, and 25s (even 20s would be middling) about fair, while not seeming too generous.. Boyles and PP prolly going 5 places in this... dunno about Magic Sign.. could be 4 places a quarter with them; but then if there's a non, well, it gets annoying.. no point wasting energy walking to Ladcrooks anyhow, unless they're obviously offering better odds..

I didn't want that barstewardin grey line above, but I can't dislodge it somehow 😒 That's what happens when ya wants to say 'greater than' in symbol form... smh... (>) stick it inside brackets, and all's good, but try to use it in normal sense, and ruddy grey/quote line appears :(

That's all from me... Tomorrow, and the days arter are other days too! 😜

j@utis

That's some write up, leff. Good luck with your picks. No flat racing today, so I'm taking a day off from form studies.

SonOfGoat

3 bets.

2.40 naas, brunello, around 9/4. I'm sure this won't win so laying at 9/4ish and also laying 3 places at around 1/2.

3.0 Sedgefield, dalkingstown, around 5/4.cant see it winning here. Lay bet and my best of the day.

3.10 naas, the nice guy, around 6/4. Another lay bet here. Confident this won't win.

Ta j@utis 😊

No joy in 3.20..

No joy in 4.00 either 😴 would never have found that Leeswood Lily, the well backed winning 11/4 2nd fav