2022 Irish EV Sales

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119761987#Comment_119761987

As much as many here would like to agree with you, that's the not the way it's interpreted for the oft mentioned sales bans starting from 2030. Hybrid's fall under the electrified banner and won't be phased out until the later date of 2035.

KrisW1001

@unkel in the mainstream market, BEVs are sold at similar margins ICE models; the big margin difference between ICEs and BEV margins is almost all due to to premium large-car and SUV sales. The various government incentives for BEVs have allowed car makers to achieve higher transaction prices to offset the higher manufacturing costs, but in terms of euros received per manufacturing slot, those higher transaction price makes a BEV a better use of constrained capacity.

Customers see BEVs as premium, and ICEs are losing their lustre except for larger SUVs where current BEV technology isn’t a cost-effective solution yet. ICEs might have very low production costs, but they are commodified, and subject to fierce price competition. The small margins in the bread-and-butter ICE models like Focuses or Golfs means these have always been profitable only at large volumes, but a restriction in production capacity makes these a poor use of manufacturing capability right now. As I said in the bit of my quote you missed out, it is hard to get a base-spec ICE right now, but more expensive trim levels are a lot easier to order.

Everyone making EVs in Europe right now is making money on them. In the mass market, manufacturers are already far beyond the point they needed to reach in order to meet EU fleet CO2 emissions targets, so there would be no reason to keep producing BEVs unless they can be sold and sold at a profit: none of these companies are charities. I waited over six months for my new car, despite the factory that makes it running at full capacity all through that time. The days of manufacturers limiting production once they met an emissions target (e.g., VW’s e-Up) are gone.

There’s a lot of opinion and commentary that says BEVs are only a bargaining tool to sell gas-guzzlers, but that is almost all based on an analysis of the US car market; Europe is a very different place. Right now, price is now the biggest barrier to wide BEV adoption in Europe: existing range, performance and size of BEVs are all well within the target ranges for the market. Yes, Ireland is an outlier and we’re more American in our population patterns and thus our driving habits, but we are also such a small market that our preferences have insignificant impact on the European car market.

But speaking of America, the European manufacturers that are still investing in ICE products are doing so only because they have large operations in the US market, which for various reasons will be the last to electrify.

@liamog - another way to look at this is that ICEs must cease sales by 2030 unless manufacturers use electrified drive trains to dramatically reduce emissions. Paradoxically, I think this actually helps us with emissions before 2030; without that carrot of another five years, car-makers would have just kept selling regular petrol and diesel cars with no hybrid assistance, right up the the cutoff date.

brownej

Whats interesting about EV sales in Ireland is that compared with other markets, Tesla is not quite at the races. Tesla is number 1 in lots of markets including Germany for EV sales.

However in Ireland VW group outsells tesla 4 to 1 with VW on its own outselling tesla nearly 3 to 1 in BEVs. Hyundai group also outsell Tesla 2.5 to 1.

I'm sure price plays a part but ID4 being the number 1 EV is hardly a cheap car and outsells the tesla model 3 by a huge margin.

liamog

@liamog - another way to look at this is that ICEs must cease sales by 2030 unless manufacturers use electrified drive trains to dramatically reduce emissions. Paradoxically, I think this actually helps us with emissions before 2030; without that carrot of another five years, car-makers would have just kept selling regular petrol and diesel cars with no hybrid assistance, right up the the cutoff date.

It's great to see that 42.22% of cars sold this year fall under the electrified banner, and that 21.6% of new cars have plugs. It's really puts into perspective how achievable those targets are.

mfceiling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764721#Comment_119764721

I would say that the ID4 and model 3 are 2 completely different cars. Also vw make it so easy to buy their cars (especially older people). Walk into the numerous showrooms and you can see the car you want and arrange finance there and then.

The price drop of the model Y might change the figures in the future.

RedorDead

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119730408#Comment_119730408

Im not sure you're right. Theres a lot of people out there that are not suited to EVs and would simply prefer a diesel. Residual values holding really well on diesel currently and while it may suffer a little bit compared to EVs over the short to medium term i simply cannot see the "horrendous" depreciation you forecast. 40% of the fleet market is diesel, compared to just 27% of the total market.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119730408#Comment_119730408

Highly unlikely to see ‘horrendous’ depreciation, although I know how you’re thinking about it.

the reality is that the overwhelming majority of car transactions happen in the 2nd hand market - to suggest that diesels will depreciate more than normal is to suggest that 2nd hand buyers would have finance/savings to choose a comparatively expensive electric car ahead of an ICE.

there will ALWAYS be a market for ICE cars in the 2nd hand market while BEV’s are so comparatively expensive.

I’d be more concerned about the depreciation on the glut of €55-75k medium suv family BEV’s, sold into the middle class on finance, on some foolhardy assumption that cars dont depreciation any more.

look at it this way - look at how many pre-08 cars are still about, on crazy high motor tax. Cheaper to buy, more expensive to run. That change happened almost 15yrs ago and those people can’t afford anything else.

that’s where diesels are headed, except the silly BEV prices will actually support the ICE prices because they are so expensive.

KrisW1001

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764721#Comment_119764721

The reason is simple economics. Tesla makes cars that are more expensive than Volkswagen’s, and unlike in Germany, the Irish tax system offers only limited ways to dodge having to pay tax on the money you spend on a car. Even the latest BIK changes to promote EV adoption were specifically capped to prevent the politically unpalatable situation of senior managers being given a €100k car tax-free while everyone else had to pay for theirs with taxed income.

MightyMunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766123#Comment_119766123

Is an ID4 not around the same price as a Tesla? I wonder if Ireland has a higher % of SUVs than elsewhere in Europe.

creedp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766010#Comment_119766010

The equivalent of the property bubble'. Some people are spending big money on EVs funded via PCP on the assumption that EVs are largely depreciation proof. While that may apply in the short term, all cars including EVs will return to normal depn levels in the not too distant future. People will get burnt, it's only a matter of when.

Will be interesting to see how diesel depn will evolve. It could be argued that there will continue to be an underlying demand for used diesels for a number of years to come and a reduced supply, both from new sales and the continuing impact of Brexit, will ensure strong demand for this supply. Speaking to a guy with a 202 5 Series who said he was offered a trade in higher than what he paid for it but there is nothing out there at present that interested him. So it's not only EVs that are experiencing zero/minimal depn at present. Watch this space.

KrisW1001

@MightyMunster: "Around", but Tesla is still more expensive. Based on manufacturers’ Irish pricelists, Model Y is priced from €53k for the entry RWD model with 455km range. The ID4 starts at 49k for the entry RWD model with 497 km, but when you try to actually get one, the cheapest offer is €51k. (both range figures are WLTP, I took the lower figure of VW’s claimed range values). Basic options are much more expensive on the Tesla (€2300 for 20” wheels???).

But the killer feature for VW is leasing plans: VW has more and better PCP offerings, and that makes a big difference to the kind of customer who treats their car like their mobile phone: something that they pay every month for and “upgrade” every three years.

As for share of SUVs, I don’t know. The European average is around 40% of new passenger cars are “crossovers”, but the last time I saw a breakdown of that share by country, Ireland was a little above average, but less so than the UK. Germany has always been below average, though - they prefer wagons.

But one of the big factors in the Irish car market is the effect of second-hand UK cars, so until Brexit messed things up, sheer availability of second-hand stock meant the Irish vehicle fleet ended up looking a lot like the UK one, even though new car sales were very different (for example, for years, the top selling new BMW models here were the 5 and X5, yet the most common BMW models on the road was the 3-series, a UK company-car favourite). Basically, the UK loves SUVs, so even if we weren’t already keen on them, a glut of ex-lease UK SUVs would have put a lot of them on our roads.

fits

A lot of the reason Tesla not doing so well is their PITH CEO.

Obviously pcp plays a big role also.

MightyMunster

The ID4 is more expensive than I thought!

Over 50k, and no heat pump, no leather seats, manually adjustable seats, no rear heated seats, slow charging speeds. Surprised that so many people are buying these over Hyundai, Kia or Tesla. But then I suppose lots of people buy Toyotas too and that's also a mystery to me.

unkel

It's familiar, the salespersons are good. Service is good. Dealers are everywhere. Same with Toyota. Not for nothing these cars are (soon were) the biggest car companies in the world.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119767080#Comment_119767080

Tesla not doing so well? 🤣 They don't sell any cheap cars, only very expensive ones (the cheapest is €53k) and yet within the next 10 years they could well be the biggest car maker in the world in number of cars sold (they already are by market cap and probably soon enough also by total profit)

fits

I meant by comparison with vw in ireland. the Id.4 are same price

eagerv

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768517#Comment_119768517

Model Y is similar pricing only lately to the ID.4, so Tesla sales will only increase in the future in that segment imo.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768517#Comment_119768517

So you reckon Tesla in Ireland is not doing well (compared to VW) because of Musk? That makes even less sense. Tesla was doing quite alright despite having only one reasonably affordable EV (Model 3), but that is a saloon which is a very unpopular form factor. Wait until you see the sales numbers for the Model Y (which has now also become reasonable affordable) for 2023.

And I doubt many ID.4 buyers just went to a VW dealer to hand over their money because they don't like the Tesla CEO 😂

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768459#Comment_119768459

If they achieve full self-driving and robotaxi's before those 10 years are up, they'll be selling precisely 0 cars in 10 years' time.

unkel

That's what Musk has been saying alright :-)

brownej

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768865#Comment_119768865

I think the people that paid huge money for FSD years ago and never got it are pretty upset. Its $15k now and no guarantee you will actually get it which is ridiculous.

Tesla seem to be going backwards with their FSD, removing radar and ultrasonics and going all in for cameras. I have seen online people complaining that the existing ADAS functions are crap with cameras only especially at night.

cannco253

https://www.independent.ie/life/motoring/car-news/volkswagen-tops-bevphev-buying-with-id4-the-most-popular-model-42077030.html

“What you might find interesting is that the data shows BMW to be the most imported EV and PHEV (cars only).

And buyers are favouring the 530e, making it the all-round most popular import.

In all, more than 1,000 BMW PHEVs have been imported year-to-date.”

Red Silurian

I think there's only one thing that will sell a car in the next few months and that's supply, such is the demand for EVs at the moment.

If tesla get their supply right, which they seem to be doing so far with the M3, they'll cash in no matter who their CEO is. If Nissan send 500 Leafs to the country next year they will all get sold no matter what DC charging plug they use and Renault would sell shiploads of Zoes even if they reverted to the AC43 standard

For what it's worth the I agree the Tesla CEO is on a personality level to Donald Trump but much like Homer Simpsons climb of the Murderhorn being aided by two people while he slept in a sleeping bag it was Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning who were the brains behind Tesla. Musk just provided the cash

ted1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769457#Comment_119769457

I think Musk provided far more than cash, the vision you are fooling yourself ig you think it’s just the cash

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769375#Comment_119769375

Have you seen the latest version of FSD beta? It's incredible, scary really, it drives just like a careful human would drive. But then with superhuman capabilities (better vision than a human, better reaction times than a human, safer than a human).

You can really describe it as fully self driving now, with the caveat that the human driver is still responsible at all times. I think there are close to 200,000 cars in the beta program in the USA and Canada now. These people got superb value for money for their FSD

For FSD Teslas in Europe like my own car? Not so much. Don't blame Tesla though, they would love to open up the beta program to Europe but the UN regulating body that overseas autonomous driving doesn't allow it

ELM327

FSD beta in the US is phenomenal. It's like there are two different FSD products (which there are given the two prices)

celtic_oz

The FSD license should follow the person not the car IMO or at least be able to transfer to another car.. the initial investors have to hold on to old cars on a vague promise ?

unkel

Yes indeed. There are plenty of people who paid (not an awful lot of money mind) for FSD in 2016 and 2017 and have long since sold their car, never even been on the FSD beta. That's a poor deal. Possibly even reason for class action.

D_D

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119768717#Comment_119768717

Im going to put my hand up and say I ain't buying a Tesla for this exact reason... Musk is a pox and I can't put money in his pockets

unkel

Off to buy a superior bargain ID.4 with ya so 😂

Mr Q

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769660#Comment_119769660

We must be seeing different clips of it, there are still a huge amount of issues with FSD and they are a long way off having it worth the price.

When Tesla start taking responsibility for any accidents the car has when FSD is engaged then it will be a different situation.

unkel

When Tesla take full responsibility and the car is level 5 autonomous, you might be able to subscribe to FSD for $5k per month (@liamog's scenario)

Mr Q

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770957#Comment_119770957

Mercedes have already done this with a Level 3 system, they will take responsibility if an accident occurs while the system is engaged. You can buy a car with this as a 5k one off option today in some countries.

It is limited currently with top speed and other factors. Level 5 could be decades away.

unkel

I've no doubt level 5 will be in this decade in some country.

I'm aware of Mercedes being the only company that offers level 3. As you rightly say, the only difference between level 2 and level 3 is responsibility is for the car, not the driver.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770269#Comment_119770269

I tend to agree. I struggle with the notion of taking money out of my pocket and putting it into his. It’s just a personal principles thing.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770340#Comment_119770340

The biggest issue with FSD has always been the ‘full’ and ‘self’ parts. The latest software hasn’t changed that, and Tesla are miles away from L3 software that could accept liability. That’s the next real game changer, simply because the software will have to deliver

the_amazing_raisin

October stats are out, beep beep doesn't like me for some reason so I can't use the filters

Looks like pure EV is at 14% market share for 2022, up from 8% in 2021

Total EV sales at 15,241 for 2022, an increase of 82% from the 8,338 in 2021

I also noticed the ID.4 is the number 5 selling car in Ireland 😁

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119773224#Comment_119773224

Have to say I understand, no doubt a Tesla is a lovely car but buying one feels on par to staying and playing golf at a Trump resort

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820123#Comment_119820123

Your surrounded by racist people and conspiracy theorists?

I mean Tesla have their bad spots, but that's probably a bit harsh 😜

Although, we'll see how their CEO does with Twitter. His answer to the internet being a cesspit seems to be an even bigger cesspit 😬

sk8board

year to date, by manufacturer

and October, by manufacturer

EV sales 14.6% YTD, versus 8% last year (Jan-Oct)

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119820123#Comment_119820123

I mean, VW were formed by a great man.

the_amazing_raisin

October top cars by model, I'm guessing the new E-Niro has hit Irish shores

Also, there's 25 lucky Polestar 2 owners out there

the_amazing_raisin

And year to date by model, ID.4 is doing very well against the competition, almost 3x the Ioniq 5

EDIT: Okay, it's more like 2.5x, my math isn't good outside work hours

I wonder what the story behind that is, it's not like the ID.4 is that much cheaper so is it just a question of availability or do Irish people love VW that much?

Also, looks like the Zoe has had its day, sales are down a lot on last year

sk8board

Whatever peoples reviews or opinions, the ID4 has been a maaaasssive success here in Ireland for VW - they seem to be able to get the deliveries into the country every month, which Kia, Hyundai and Tesla can’t.

1,200 VW EV’s in July alone, but 300-600 most months.

look at Tesla - only landed cars here twice in the last 10 months

and here’s the ioniq 5!

EV6 isn’t much better:

TitianGerm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821036#Comment_119821036

I'd imagine they've gotten an awful lot of Tiguan buyers switching to ID4 when their PCP was coming to an end.

It's been a massive success for them here though.

The ID3 is a lovely car and would be selling bucket loads only for VW making the model offering shocking and way overpriced.

sk8board

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821057#Comment_119821057

Tiguan PCPs is all well and good, but they still had to make & deliver the cars.

hyundai, Kia and Tesla could sell as many of the ioniq5, ev6 & m3 they want to, if only they could build and deliver them.

there’s also only so many people with a €45k Tiguan rLine on 0% finance, who can afford to move to a €55k ID4 on 4.9%.

fits

“The ID3 is a lovely car and would be selling bucket loads only for VW making the model offering shocking and way overpriced.”

yes. Very happy with ours indeed.

Thumper Long

There are also 33 Volkswagen dealerships in the Freestate, that with the traditionally strong VW presence makes sticking with a VW or buying a VW a safe choice for a lot of people. The Koreans are improving all the time and their reputation is also growing, Toyota will sell a lot of EVs if they can build them akin to the VW penetration, unfortunately the Tesla sales model is still a step too far for most people but if they had 30 odd showrooms and a traditional trade /sale model I think they would be much higher up the list, I’ve yet to see a gang of kids waving at an ID4 😂

Like the kids in Ballally shouting tosser at tesla drivers?

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119821272#Comment_119821272

I think for Tesla there's also the fact that the Model Y is a lot more expensive than the competition and for all it's good points that'll put a lot of people off

Model 3 is cheaper, but not the same type of car and I think it's gotten to the point where everyone who wanted one (and could afford one) has now bought theirs

Tesla's major selling point is the SuC network IMO, and that's not as big a deal in Ireland as it is in Europe