DF Commission Report

sparky42

I posted an earlier version of this in the interesting article thread but the IT has updated it, and yeah it’s pretty much the LoA2 increase of €500 million, but apparently this is a huge amount of money that will take many years to add in (let’s ignore how much other departments get in supplementary budgets, or how much DOD will return unspent anyway), so maybe the MRV gets ordered finally, a couple more helicopters, radar, new vehicles and maybe a transport capability…

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-s-defence-spending-set-to-rise-by-at-least-50-says-coveney-1.4864427

donvito99

Not quite sure how a humanitarian aid vessel, transport aircraft and more AW139s protects the state, but it's a start...

tippilot

Unless factored for inflation LOA 2 will hardly maintain the status quo.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991006#Comment_118991006

Like I said, first step is to stop DOD from returning any increase unspent, you know they will want to.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118990967#Comment_118990967

The MRV, transport does increase the capabilities though, limited as they might be, hell maybe someone could even manage to order helicopters that are capable of operating outside of Ireland?

tippilot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991018#Comment_118991018

It would be a start. This "large increase" that will take "years to implement" line smacks of a Yes, Minister type pining for a change of government.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991042#Comment_118991042

It does doesn't it, I mean even just a basic €100 million a year matched with Inflation growth would take only 5 years, is anyone seriously going to suggest that couldn't be managed? Hell just fixing conditions would eat a couple of years of that growth before you even touch new hardware contracts.

Leonidas BL

https://twitter.com/StiofainR/status/1519793860666445824?s=20&t=pvMpjTFlV07mxS3wYf1RPA

Neutral my hole 😅

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991087#Comment_118991087

Even if we were, do you think it would stop them? Hell they reportedly flew a couple of nukes through Swedish airspace recently.

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991024#Comment_118991024

Outside Leinster even? They seem to struggle if they get too far from the blue railings...

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118991129#Comment_118991129

While that particular incident was not accurately reported, they are continuing to test the defences of NATO, flying on the edge of the Baltic states in recent days with an AN-12, which was escorted to safety by French Mirage 2000s engaged in Baltic Air Policing.

I'd expect a visit to the west coast in coming weeks too (if they have anything left flyable)

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118993275#Comment_118993275

They’ve been careful to limit the threat to the strategic bombers, most likely as they are almost irreplaceable for Russia so there’s a chance. Hell maybe they could do the DF a favour and turn up a lot when Coveney is presenting his proposals to Cabinet, didn’t hurt to get attention in February.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118993231#Comment_118993231

Just wait until they might get asked to go to sea again…

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118993275#Comment_118993275

They must be in bad shape the fact they havent flown the western flank of europe since the start of the war to just be a pest even

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118994379#Comment_118994379

It usually happens in Feb.However if they are probing the Baltics with a Cub, who knows what they'll fling down the GIUK gap.

sparky42

The latest from the IT:

An increase in military spending as recommended by the recent Commission on the Defence Forces is unlikely to be completed until at least 2025.

Last February the commission reported that the Defence Forces were not currently capable of credibly defending the country against attack, and put forward various proposals for increased funding.

The most ambitious proposals, which it called Level of Ambition 3, called for a three-fold increase in defence spending, bringing it to €3 billion a year and roughly in line with other small European countries.

It also put forward in intermediate proposal, Level of Ambition 2, which would address urgent capability gaps and allow for some limited upgrades. Minister for Defence Simon Coveney has said he will deliver his recommendation to Cabinet next month.

Defence sources said the option currently being considered is a “Level of Ambition 2.5”. The Minister would recommend adopting most, if not all, of the recommendations in Level of Ambition 2, while picking some of those laid out in the most ambitious proposal.

This would see the Defence Forces receiving hugely increased cyber capabilities and a primary radar system which would allow it to monitor effectively Irish skies for the first time.

It would also receive increased air lift capacity, improved armoured personnel carriers and an increase in numbers in the Naval Service to allow ships to spend more time at sea.

However, the purchase of a squadron of jet fighters, as recommended in Level of Ambition 3, is not being considered, it is understood. This would mean Britain’s RAF would still be responsible for responding to any airborne incursion over Ireland.

The proposals would cost between €600 million and €1 billion extra a year, it was estimated.

The plan is to gradually ramp up defence spending over the next several years. Sources said it will be at least 2025 before this funding level is achieved.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/increase-in-defence-spending-likely-to-take-at-least-three-years-1.4866904

jonnybigwallet

Ah well...Not very good news for the "Air Force", who will have to struggle on with a small squadron of propeller driven trainers. Meanwhile the ""Navy" look like they are going to receive 2 second hand light customs cutters and a small car ferry with a 20mm forward gun to ferry the army around. Great result all round.

purplepanda

In the run up to the outbreak of World War II, there was at least an excuse of insufficient national finance available to strengthen the defence forces under the De Valera government. However this time, "the context in which we are having this political debate – war in Europe" to quote Simon Coveney, there is certainly not the same valid excuse. Playing the poor mouth won't be very convincing in this era.

For example taxes can be levelled on those multinational companies that pay very low taxes on historical profits Ireland. A modest tourist / visitor tax could be charged. The country can certainly afford to upgrade the defence budget to previous levels as was spent during the 1980's & 1990's.

Since the Americans are introducing a modern version of WW2's Lend Lease Program, Ireland should be asking for financial help to contribute to the defence & policing of the Atlantic Ocean / Western European regions. Representation should be made to our European partner nations financial help & also relevant military resources, even any previous used modern equipment can be useful at this stage.

Britain & the United States in particular might be able to supply military aid, particularly maritime & aviation equipment which are vital for Ireland to quickly strengthen its military capability.

Achieving the outcome recommended in the DF Commision report in a couple of decades, if ever, is certainly not good enough in the current world crisis.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119004342#Comment_119004342

3 years is not bad at all if they get extra APCs, Radar, Ships and crew along with helicopters when you consider tenders and time it takes to deliver. I know builders waiting 9 months for just vans

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119004575#Comment_119004575

Indeed, and somehow people seem to be forgetting that the LoA3 suggestions were built on LoA2 happening and a sustained period of such investment in people and equipment before moving to more roles under LoA3. If tomorrow morning we jumped to 3 billion and ordered a couple of dozen fighters the DF simply couldn’t absorb such budgets or operate the high end equipment. We need time to build, and 600m-1 billion a year in no small matter.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119004510#Comment_119004510

There was more in play than just finances, there was also training, even if we jumped to buying a **** load of new equipment tomorrow, where do you think the people to use it will be? It’s a couple of years for trained fighter pilots to transition from WP fighters to Western fighters and operate them proficiently, we don’t even have those pilots for anything, same applies for the Navy. The Army with its larger manpower is in a better position but still would need time to build up for more capable roles and will have to get in line behind other nations that have ordered equipment as well.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119004439#Comment_119004439

That’s right Johnny, the SSNs, and Stealth fighters got cancelled…

jonnybigwallet

Even my more modest and affordable suggestions of the KAI or the wee Italian job never make it off the wish list. And there was me thinkin Simon might be up for doin something significant. Shame. Nowt happening now for a long time methinks.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119005504#Comment_119005504

They were never on the list in the first place thankfully, and plenty will happen if the budgets see the increase reported.

Grassy Knoll

Seems to be going as far as he can without getting into the fast jets at this point. Managing and utilising this level of additional investment will be challenging given the low base of manpower and capability that currently exist, so to be fair it is a decent response from government - assuming it materialises. Several of the defence facilities are so under developed they will have challenges handling a surge in new equipment and staff. Certainly if matched with improvements in t&c it could present an exciting career opportunity for young women and men in the next few years.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119006370#Comment_119006370

Given the lead time for procurement, imo ideally the first steps in investment would be in the T&Cs and in the base facilities (particularly Haulbowline if we are going to grow to double crews and a Ranger deployment to the base), while the new equipment starts through the tendering process.

roadmaster

With LOA 2 looking likely we may be seeing extra troop helicopters. Anyone dare to take a guess what we will get ? Are we looking at sticking with the Italians and going for 189s or 101s, The french for carcels or NH90s?

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119010400#Comment_119010400

I’m going to go with a couple more 139s hopeful the military spec ones though. I can’t see them adding a new type if it’s meant to augment the existing fleet. Though if I had the choice I’d jump to the recommendation of the 8 super mediums instead and keep the 6 139s for the current jobs.

jonnybigwallet

Don't think an overwhelming surge would even happen if fast jets were ordered this year. Deliveries would be phased over several years. Probably 2 to 4 per annum. Anyway....It ain't happening now in my lifetime. Government is too stingy.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119010795#Comment_119010795

Yep, they actually refused to order any just to annoy you.