Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

John.Icy

The orange looks solid enough to me with a quick glance at the GFS. Close to something worse alright so may change. Forgive my eyes but as far as I can see, any gusts in excess of 130 km/h seem to stay offshore. The 7 counties in the orange is pretty identical to the second frame of this animation if you were to overlay the warnings & projected gusts here. Red for maritime areas I'm sure. When it starts to clear off could be disruptive enough as quite a large swathe of strong gusts for more areas, including Dublin - which going by SB's storm table is rather underexposed to gusts in excess of 100 km/h. Pinch of salt though with taking gusts overland too seriously at this stage (or at all).

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642430#Comment_118642430

Hmm, I wouldn't call his posts ramping really, he's gauging what the charts are putting out there. This is a forum after all, opinions and debate are welcome - it's not a public service where Irish citizens come to for detailed forecasts, rather this forum is a sphere to discuss forecasts amongst people with a similar interest.

As for your prediction, or forecast rather - snow over 250m could be right, might not be either. There have been times before where rain and sleet were forecast and it snowed instead - 10th December 2017 is one example of this, 22nd March 2017 is another that I can think of straight off, there are numerous other examples too if I went digging.

Either way, welcome to the discussion, please be courteous to other posters on here, it's all just for fun really at the end of the day.

NedsNotDead

Right now Anything can happen and it probably will

A whopper of a gust at Knock Airport at 1700, 126kmh, the average speed high there all day.

igCorcaigh

.Southern Britain could be badly hit, just looking at those charts...

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642636#Comment_118642636

ECM this evening is perfect for Connaught and Ulster snow-wise as is the GFS to all levels away from immediate Atlantic windward coastal margins.

You'll do fine, if that's the track, still to be refined.

5 - 15cm to low levels depending on how far inland you are.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/status/1494023173590953984?s=20&t=hpNJWiynXLRaxBz4zzEi1w

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642552#Comment_118642552

Due to the situation I'd say there not jumping to anything with the uncertainty. Will be a ramp tomorrow morning and if no real changes a possible orange snow ice warning issued.

pauldry

Somehow Sligo will dodge the snow and Tubbercurry will be buried. That's what usually happens or like February 11th last year Castlebar and Westport had several inches but just a few flakes in Sligo despite radar showing heavy snow over us. Just feel Sligo and Donegal are going to miss out on any snow.

pauldry

Eunice is currently starting to form at location X

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642726#Comment_118642726

No, not really.

And for some who mentioned earlier that this is all a bit of fun, well no, not entirely. The weather forum gets huge spikes in visitor numbers for these events and folk are often times looking for some serious guidance.

At the same time I would say to anyone fitting that description that is reading this now, while you may find some useful or interesting details here, you should always refer to Met Éireann warning and guidance from NDFEM in the first instance.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann will definitely go red for Friday morning for the West and South!

Otherwise you will have kids and rush hour all out at 8am when the storm is most potent

craicdood

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642842#Comment_118642842

Talk about a chip on your shoulder. Did ME take a snow dump in your cornflakes?

igCorcaigh

OT:

But I find it amazing how a storm that does not even exist now can be forecast, and modelled. There have been some amazing advances in the science and technology in recent years, all down to some very hard work by some very clever people. Way above my noggin!

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642908#Comment_118642908

No its the post predicting 5-15 cm of low level snowfall in Connacht I have a problem with.

Upper level temps barely touch into the required range for what is a very short and fast moving storm window and such a prediction ignores the energy and source of the storm airmass as well as the uncommonly mild Atlantic it is traversing.

Met Éireann, for my money, are covering the range of possible outcomes appropriately at this remove, and high level snow will be a feature, but predictions of widespread low level snow in Atlantic coastal counties is simply not a correct interpretation of the forecast data available now.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642535#Comment_118642535

I don't know even their rainfall Amber is 150mm of rain in 24 hours ours is more hourly based, I don't think I seen as much rain in Dublin since 25th October 2011 that was bad

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118642957#Comment_118642957

That bit always boggles me too. Amazing forecasting technology really.

When I was a young lad in the 1980s, storms just.....happened.

Drumpot

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643008#Comment_118643008

https://youtu.be/NnxjZ-aFkjs

https://youtu.be/Qi1a5Tbw77E

Ah the good old days… Even when we knew storms were coming we didn’t know they were coming ……

Meteorite58

French models more South on the latest run and as such showing it less windy then the other models. ECM and GFS quite closely bunched now and UKMO slightly lower in track.

GFS down slightly on wind speed over Ireland and over the sea whereas the ECM showing showing slightly stronger windspeeds in Munster with Kerry looking stronger again , high end Orange and possibly Red warning for Kerry perhaps , going on the last couple of runs anyway but of course this could change and still a bit of a spread in the models. Storm going through very quickly as can be seen.

UKMO likely overdoing the windspeeds by about 10 - 15 km/h I would think, now every system is different but judging on recent performance, In my opinion ECM/ WRF and GFS is the best bet for now, I wonder If this is a bit too complicated for the likes of ARPEGE and ICON even at this stage, later on tonight and tomorrow another good day of model watching.

SleetAndSnow

Too far south and we will get at best sleet in Cork, maybe a small bit snow if lucky , too far north and we could have a lot of wind damage... Oof we are unlucky in this one! 😂

Little snowy old me

Refusing to get excited..... until tomorrow morning. Burnt to many times before.

Meteorite58

WRF 12Z probably a good average of the models for wind speeds at this stage I would think, gust charts below would be more or less in line with ECM and lighter than UKMO and ICON .

Higher track on this run though leading to a bit less snow fall.

Tazio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643214#Comment_118643214

Era, I wasn't planning sleeping in past 05:00h on Friday morning anyway..... :)

igCorcaigh

Hmm... So for us down here in Cork City region, it seems like there will be the first round of wind around 5am on Friday, before quietening a bit, and then a stronger round of wind at about 10 or 11am?

That fits with the charts I say earlier today, but I'm aware that it could change a lot.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643295#Comment_118643295

And getting SW'ly / S'ly first and then big veer to strong NW'lys. Looks like heavy frontal rain early morning before the winds arrive.

lolokeogh

i am supposed to be leaving for waterford friday morning,herself and two kids,with other family members in tow.thinking twice now,stay over back home sunday,decisions decisions,hotel needs to get a cancel tomorrow if so,thanks for all the posts folks,i really appreciate it

Artane2002

Just a quick note for those doubting that it'll snow simply because it was 16C today:

March 3rd 2019 brought widespread snow (nothing major though) and this came on the back of February 2019, which brought record breaking mild weather and a prolonged run of mild weather in the final third, with temperatures reaching mid teens at times, including March 1st. The snowfall brought a dusting here in Dublin of all places too!

Also for the uppers brigade, uppers back then were just under zero. Here, we're looking at -2 to -6C uppers for those away from the warm sector.

It'd be nice to see the low shift south though to bring more and more people into the game, we're running out of time though.

Dazler97

Wow so this storm looks as if it could still go north of its track or south, if it nudges north we could be in red warning territory for the South

squarecircles

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/11305-major-storm-eunice-this-friday---synoptic-analysis

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643393#Comment_118643393

Yeah, it's all so marginal isn't it! I'd like to see the progression of the storm as it rapidly develops.