Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

StevenToast

Brennans bread reporting shortages in the midlands....

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643567#Comment_118643567

Yes same here will defo be interesting alright

Kermit.de.frog

Latest ICON 18z, tasty enough for most snow fans overnight Thursday and through Friday morning

Reflecting the thickness values above the freezing level is brought down closer to the surface which compensates for perceived elevated 850 hpa layer temperatures when it comes to snow. They aren't actually elevated however. -4c - 6c is good for snow. Projected freezing level altitude in meters Friday morning

The strongest of the winds generally kept off the south coast

Of course, too much of a kick north or accelerated deepening of the center of the system and this goes out the window and snowfall with it.

Achilles Knee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643252#Comment_118643252

I suppose burnt is one thing we won't be😉 Wet, cold alright.

Achilles Knee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643583#Comment_118643583

BINGO

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z nudges slightly North. Enough to give a violent swath of winds across the South. There's your red!!

torres9kop

Is Dublin getting snow on Friday??

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643758#Comment_118643758

Too early too tell. Possibly, better chance in the afternoon with some heavy sleet/snow showers crossing the country. A chance in the morning too but it's touch and go at the moment. Check in tomorrow 😎

JanuarySnowstor

Big upgrade on the 18z for both wind and snow! It seems to be peaking over Ireland now rather than UK.

A dangerous system coinciding with rush hour and high tides!!

Meteorite58

A nudge further North from the GFS 18Z, looks stronger on the run compared to the last, will the ECM follow suit.

Gonzo

The 18z is a big downgrade for snow. Snow now mostly confined to the northern 1/3 of the country and only a dusting at that. Wind is perhaps a bit stronger especially for southern and eastern areas, but southern UK still getting the core of the wind speeds. The big downgrade in the snow makes sense because the temperatures, uppers etc are extremely marginal for snow.

South Wales to London will be getting the direct hit of the winds if this verifies.

Meteorite58

Was thinking the same, the further North the storm tracks the less snow.

Vaccinated30

In dublin, am I keeping the kids off school tomorrow?

squarecircles

Just enough north to prevent snow, but not enough north to get the storm.

gas.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643873#Comment_118643873

Dunno. Are they suspended? 😋

Otherwise no.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118643873#Comment_118643873

the stormy weather is on friday, tomorrow is Thursday.

zisdead

Have absolutely no interest in slushy snow.I am a wind storm all the way man.

Get yourself shifted 150 miles further north Eunice 🙏

irishfeen

ITV main weather just now (Met Office in UK) refusing to call it any way at all.. skipped the entire storm almost to just show Friday midday as a static screen with the official UK warnings in place.

Seems to be very much up in the air across Met Éireann and Met Office - wouldn’t blame them either!

Oscar Bravo

Earlier today with a line thundery showers nearby a gust of 126km/h (78mph) was recorded at Knock Airport around 5pm. Heard some nice long rumbles around 4.30pm here in Castlebar.

Kermit.de.frog

18z UKMO takes thing another nudge south. Most of the snow in the north, northwest, midlands, southwest before transferring east early Friday morning.

Arpege more or less the same.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118644049#Comment_118644049

That's gas and the ARPEGE has nudged a tad further North.

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118644049#Comment_118644049

The UKMO snow depth chart is mental, showing a foot for parts of Galway/Roscommon/Westmeath and a large area of 15cm+. We all know how inaccurate these charts are but it's still crazy to see this at 38 hours out

Icyseanfitz

Wonder will Kerry go red Friday morning 🤷‍♂️

pauldry

It's nor really gas as was said they nearly always trend North of original. Funniest part though is there will be only a small snowfall in the North and an hour or two of severe wind in the South

When we wake on Friday the land will be green with slush at the walls and a normal steady breeze.

Media might force Met Eireann to make it red though due to uncertainty.

Meteorite58

AROME very like the UKMO for snowfall projections, nice bit of CAPE approaching Western coasts also on Fri maybe a few more thunderstorms . Cumulative snowfall below , actual would be less.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118644099#Comment_118644099

Ah I just miss the heaviest of the rain/s3as I'm in carrick on Shannon

redsteveireland

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118644099#Comment_118644099

Bank!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118644117#Comment_118644117

Media might force Met Eireann to make it red though due to uncertainty

Seems Orange is the new Red now. Lots of places will shut Friday morning regardless.

M.T. Cranium

18z analysis shows that a very weak low has formed now, 1022 mb at 39N 37W, from satellite image would estimate its position now to be around 42N 33W. SST values in that region are around 18 C. RGEM 18z model shows it deepening to 1009 mb by 06z (so currently around 1016) at 45N 29W, then by 18z Thursday down to 984 mb at 50N 20W. (after which off the model grid but these positions are similar to the GFS 18z).

So the guidance seems to be splitting into two camps, one fairly far north (and North American models mostly), the other further south and Euro models. Just the look of the current satellite has me somewhat favoring the northward shift. The 18z GFS track is fairly similar to Darwin although with a slightly different balance of strong winds around the centre (Darwin was holding back a bit to deliver that big punch from the WNW in the rear quadrant, Eunice seems to be more balanced and would have the two more equal intervals of strong winds).

It looks to be following a fairly similar track to the damaging 27 Feb 1903 storm also.

However, nothing needs to be decided here and now, 00z model run should be interesting, should see signs of which side will be caving to the other side perhaps.

At the very least, I think we could usefully say that Friday will not be a very good day to travel, it might turn out okay in some areas and Dublin could be one of those, but I wouldn't advise anyone to make any long-distance road trips. If you have to go somewhere, try to time it for mid-day Thursday when there should be a relative lull or the calm before the storm.

Akrasia

The most important question is what will the weather be like at 7pm on Friday in Limerick when Munster play Edinburgh

(Also I hope nobody dies)