Storm Eunice - Friday 18th February - Wind & Snow Potential

cheezums

Looks like the entire south of England will take a battering from this.

youngblood

So no red warning for the midlands is what Im seeing here!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645473#Comment_118645473

Lack of coasts

Oscar Bravo

Status Red - Storm warning for Cork, Kerry

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Storm Eunice will track quickly over Ireland tonight and Friday morning bringing severe and damaging winds. Southwest winds veering northwest will reach mean speeds in excess of 80 km/h with gusts in excess of 130 km/h. Some coastal flooding, especially at high tide.

Valid: 03:00 Friday 18/02/2022 to 08:00 Friday 18/02/2

pad199207

Orange Level Snow Warnings issued

Quitelife

Apparently in Northern Ireland the DUP are blaming the protocol for this extreme weather!

fits

Well that’s it. I’m wfh tomorrow. Don’t need to travel for any reason so not going to.

Widdensushi

3 to 8am red warning, does that mean schools are open?

M.T. Cranium

To give some idea of the local variations that are going to be possible, if the 06z GFS verified, then around 0400-0600h (before dawn) the ring of Kerry region would be in hurricane force WNW winds 100-150 km/hr, and around Mallow in north Cork it would be almost calm.

The duration of these very strong winds looks to be 2-3 hours, would be interesting to get the take of JS and other Cork posters on what could be expected in Cork city and out towards Cobh, my guess is that there would be quite a gradient of wind gusts inland, and that those extreme winds out on the Kerry coast would only hit a few spots around Sherkin and towards Kinsale (probably more like 80-130 km/hr by then) and further inland, closer to 70-110 km/hr).

This brief wind max will move rapidly east and likely with a bit of a decrease in top speeds as it goes, by Wexford (07-0900h) it should be more like 60-100 km/hr.

Would say residents of the Kerry peninsulas should prepare for damaging wind gusts from directions between SW and NW (winds will veer steadily during the event).

If the GFS 06z is correct then the low would only take 2.5 to 3 hours to travel across the country from landfall in Kerry to exit near Wicklow. That intense core of winds just to the west of the centre would more or less disappear as the circulation became more evenly distributed.

We may get different looks from later model runs though.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645600#Comment_118645600

Certainly Cork city got a battering from Darwin MT so if this storm is gusting from the same direction you'd expect similar I suppose? I know my golf course located about 10km south of Cork city lost over 150 trees in Darwin and lost many more through Ophelia (albeit that Darwin had knocked the less stable ones already I assume). For Ophelia, my local secondary school (3km from Cork city) had the 60m or so roof of its gymnasium ripped right off and deposited in a local garden.

Kermit.de.frog

The models generally kick the fronts further north this morning along with the center which puts the frontal snow risk in to the west Connaught, northwest counties primarily. Between 5 and 12 cm possible there. The snow risk extends east in the morning as the wrap around comes in and sleet/snow showers coming in behind.

I think on the wind warnings an orange is more appropriate in the southwest really though I understand why they went for a red, better safe than sorry. This won't be a long lived event, just a few hours. Between circa 6 and 8 am is peak intensity in the southwest and along the south coast. By 9 am the brunt of the winds have probably passed at that stage though some strong gusts in the eastern half of the country for a couple of hours in the morning.

In the afternoon some strong winds back in to northwestern counties for a while.

A lot people by this time tomorrow in relation to the wind aspect at any rate wondering what the fuss was about i'd say.

Apothic_Red

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645351#Comment_118645351

I used side with the knowledgable posters here but I have to say ME have really upped their game of late with the accuracy of their predictions.

If they say it's a red, I believe them

Icyseanfitz

So will schools in SW be open tomorrow 🤷‍♂️

longrunn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645600#Comment_118645600

and towards Kinsale (probably more like 80-130 km/hr by then) and further inland, closer to 70-110 km/hr)

When you say "further inland", what do you mean in terms of distance? I ask because I'm 10km inland from Kinsale. Thanks!

lilywhitearmy

League of ireland season is back up and running tomorrow night. Hopefully things don't get too bad, leading to any postponements.

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118644914#Comment_118644914

only if your school is to the east of where you live

Teacher2020

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645663#Comment_118645663

Schools were closed in Orange warning areas in December for Storm Barra.

As regards to the Red Warning it seems a bit close to open a school at 8.50 when the warning finishes at 8. Pupils usually would start arriving at 8.30 and teachers would start commuting before 8. Possibly will open with a later start time. Can't see them open on time.

Gaoth Laidir

UK Met Office General Aviation forecast outlook for southwest UK tonight and tomorrow.

Regional Outlook (Valid 0000-0600 UTC)

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SW THROUGH THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM EUNICE, OTHERWISE SIMILAR

UK Extended Outlook (Valid 0600-0600 UTC)

SCOTLAND WILL BEGIN MAINLY FINE, WITH JUST ISOL SHRASN IN NW. OTHERWISE WDSPR RA, HVY AT TIMES, WILL MOV QUICKLY N AND E ACROSS THE UK IN MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING WINDS. THE RA CLEARING E OF ENGLAND BY MIDDAY, WHILE TURNING TO SN ACROSS NORTHERN BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND, BEFORE CLEARING AWAY E LATE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE, DURING THE MORNING A VIGOROUS LOW WILL MOV IN FROM THE WEST TO BE CENTRED ACROSS WALES BY 10Z. THIS LOW WILL HAVE SEVERE AND DISRUPTIVE WINDS ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK, AND THESE WINDS WILL TRANSFER E ACROSS S OF BRITAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE A WRAPAROUND OCCLUSION, WHICH WILL BRING A SPELL OF RA AND HILL SN AS IT MOV NE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE EVENING, THINGS WILL GRADUALLY GET BETTER AS ALL PARTS MOV INTO A COLDER BUT STILL STRONG AND SHOWERY NW FLOW, WITH OCNL SHRASN/SHSN IN THE NW

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645663#Comment_118645663

I suspect not, but given the warning is only until 8am, really kids should be told to come in but not until nearer 10am. By 10am in Cork and Kerry it will be breezy and no more. However i can't see that happening and given some kids' commute starts before 8am I fear a blanket closure will happen. We've had an average of about 1.5 weather closures a year for the last few years down here without, in truth, much extreme weather since Storm Emma in March 2018.....

M.T. Cranium

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645679#Comment_118645679

Your distance inland is about what I was thinking, although maybe you would be exposed to maybe 80-120 km/hr briefly.

It should be stressed that we might be seeing different guidance before the event starts so this is just one idea of what could happen.

SleetAndSnow

Cork is a very strange county shape wise, I genuinely always forget how much further north the city is then the most South Westerly point of the county. The city is actually kind of inland? If that makes sense. What you experience in kinsale could be totally different to what is experienced in cork city. And then north cork may as well be the mid lands, so it's a bit of a South east, south, south west and Midlands county in my books which makes it a hard county to set a warning for.

Where as a county like Waterford it's more of a straight county so the same thing is felt in much of the county.

fryup

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645446#Comment_118645446

and south Wales

Gaoth Laidir

Surface pressure reports from 18Z to 11Z. Note that ship sailing northeastwards well southwest of Ireland. That's the one that is releasing radiosondes. The low seems to be catching up with it as pressure has been steadily dropping. I'd scarper to the east now if I were the Captain.

obs_20220217_1100_animation.gif

StevenToast

Centra in castletroy out of brennans bread and full fat milk...

Had to stock up on Pat the Baker half slice pan and low fat milk....

lapua20grain

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645656#Comment_118645656

Same here all that's on here are amateurs, knowledgeable amateurs but amateurs nonetheless. I follow the actual meteorologists in met Éireann

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645761#Comment_118645761

Thoughts and prayers!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645795#Comment_118645795

What's on here is a discussion of model output

Met Eireann do the same several times every day but don't post it on boards

Gonzo

This storm doesn't look too severe in Meath or Dublin. I just want this storm to go away and the worst of the winds should be passed by the morning hopefully, I had my fill of the wind yesterday already. Snow now looks mostly confined to the NW of the country and fairly low level snow at that, but high ground should get a decent dumping.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645684#Comment_118645684

Only issue may be waterlogging where any pitches are not high-tech.

Other than that, the high winds will be gone a good 6 to 7 hours before kick off, so plenty of time for inspections of any structures that may have got a rattle during the morning.

It will also be very cold for players and fans alike, with a raw fresh to moderate breeze and passing showers of sleet and hail, sometimes thundery in nature. There is next to no risk of lying snow causing disruption though.

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118645663#Comment_118645663

Yip I would say, most likely they will be, albeit maybe a bit later around 10am or so. The RED finishes at about 8am it seems