TECHNICAL DISCUSSION - Storm Eunice 18th February

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118649825#Comment_118649825

Weather Alerts Ireland on Facebook has a video of snow in Kerry head

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118649669#Comment_118649669

The UKMO HD is a replacement for it as far as I know , handy as generated every 6 hours, I do find the wind speeds a bit excessive, will see how it handles this storm.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmohd.php?map=10

SeaBreezes

Wind starting to howl old head of kinsale..

Sorry please delete wrong thread

Oscar Bravo

Inbound

JanuarySnowstor

So the storm has formed and she's looking good!

Many seemed to have missed tomorrow's upgrades on snow potential. It could be quite a snowy afternoon in Cork!! (going by gfs)

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650096#Comment_118650096

Any chance of posting the charts for the snow potential tomorrow?

Meteorite58

GFS taking a slightly more Southern route then the European models.

AROME 18Z below , there are models stronger then it but it is usually fairly accurate.

Going to put up the ICON Flash Hi Res model to se how it gets on, might find it hard to get to work if that verifies . But I think it is overdoing it...I hope!

AROME 18Z

Vivienne23

Would someone be able to explain to me how Limerick isn’t in a red? We very rarely are included and it baffles me how it’s cork , kerry , Clare our neighbouring counties , and the charts I’m looking at seem to have Limerick looking pretty rough too

Genuinely interested….not a ‘why do I have to go to work post’ !

SleetAndSnow

Looking at sat24, the eye of Eunice looks go be heading slightly south east now, but a bit further north then what the GFS is showing.

dmc17

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650197#Comment_118650197

I'd guess it's because of the lack of sea facing coastline which is where the worst conditions could be expected for those other counties

Akrasia

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650197#Comment_118650197

Limerick isn't a coastal county so it never gets included in the reds for western coastal counties

I would argue that the Shannon estuary is as good as a coastline but met Eireann don't see it that way

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650197#Comment_118650197

Coast, that's the reason. In Much of East Kerry and North Cork will get the same as Limerick

Oscar Bravo

Latest TAF for Cork Airport has now gusts up to 70 knots forecast between 7am-9am

TAF EICK 172300Z 1800/1824 18020G38KT 3000 -RA BKN005 

BECMG 1800/1802 21028G47KT 9999 NSW FEW018 BKN030 TEMPO 1800/1801 2000 +RA BKN003 TEMPO 1803/1806 21030G57KT 

PROB40 TEMPO 1804/1808 4000 SHRA BKN010 SCT017CB 

BECMG 1805/1807 29035G60KT TEMPO 1807/1809 30040G70KT TEMPO 1808/1824 -SHRA FEW012 SCT017CB 

BECMG 1810/1812 29023G40KT 

PROB40 TEMPO 1812/1817 4000 SHRASNGS BKN010 

BECMG 1815/1817 30015G27KT 

BECMG 1817/1819 27015KT TEMPO 1819/1822 27015G26KT TEMPO 1822/1824 24010KT 

JanuarySnowstor

Wow not everyday you see 70knots

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650309#Comment_118650309

Not in cork airport anyway, max I've seen that gust too in recent years is 110 or so. Will be interesting.

pad199207

Looks to be down to 974mb now and looks more north to me.

M.T. Cranium

I think the process of splitting into two energy centres may be confusing both the short-term guidance and some attempts to follow the centre. There will soon be two separate centres, the southern one according to latest guidance is going to spin up from the chaos created when the northern centre breaks away. Nowcast special.

Meteorite58

Two centers seem to be forming all right

The wind has picked up now in Kerry, rain gone through and much cleaner air.

adocholiday

What's the likely impact of two centres on the storm? Will it make things more or less severe? Was it forecast?

corsav6

What's the outcome with two centers? Would there be an upgrade in wind speeds in Mayo?

Gaoth Laidir

Fair play to that ship that's been consistently releasing radiosondes as it came across the Atlantic. Some vital data to feed into the models in an otherwise data-sparse area.

Picture1.png

M.T. Cranium

The effects of the double centered structure were modelled in earlier today and are in the current forecasts, it won't result in a change in the forecasts.

SouthWesterly

Found this on nullschool earlier.

What's the blue airstream going towards Galway?

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118649006#Comment_118649006

I'm in North kerry. Blustery out there now

squarecircles

BLIZZARD like now west mayo,accumulating on grass and cars

YanSno

Don't be fooled by the lull, slight delay in timing. Winds should pick up in kerry very soon.

Rebelbrowser

Just woke here in Cork city. Absolutely calm here. Must be in the eye. My weather station has me at 967mb. Don't think it's been too bad so far but I know the worst winds were always to be as the low pulls away soon..

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650965#Comment_118650965

It's looking like a sting Jet may form as it crosses England. Hopefully it does not happen, because there could be some very severe gusts locally over there if one does form.

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650973#Comment_118650973

Yep completely calm here in north Cork too. Definitely not close to red conditions until now anyway so seems things were delayed an hour or two.

YanSno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118650975#Comment_118650975

Sting jet very likely conditions are favourable. Even down the London area it will be very stormy. Isolated gusts of 90mph