Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787588#Comment_118787588

lol yeah because theyd risk military losses and more sanctions to just flex their muscles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787597#Comment_118787597

Allegedly because Ukraine were warming to NATO and the Russians saw that as an existential threat. If a settlement is reached it will surely include something to mitigate that "threat", and there would be no need to invade again.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787602#Comment_118787602

Moldova do not share the longest, flattest border with Russia of any country in the world.

Pussyhands

The prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia are travelling to the Ukrainian capital by train to show support for the country on behalf of the EU, the first foreign leaders to visit Kyiv since Russia invaded last month.

Would NATO respond if any of these leaders got killed?

Kyiv must be relatively unscathed by missile attacks if they're willing to go there.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787660#Comment_118787660

If Russia sees Ukraine in NATO as an existential threat, why did they sign a deal in the 90s for Ukraine to give up their nuclear weapons, with no mention of that?

If you think this was only about NATO you haven't been paying attention or only been paying attention to Russian propaganda.

Did you miss the part where Putin said Ukraine wasn't a proper country? He sees Ukraine as a Russian colony, he did not invade just to keep Ukraine out of NATO. Look at the list of demands from Russia during their peace negotiations (aka surrender demands). It was about a lot more than keeping Ukraine out of NATO but they also want them out of the EU, with a weak neutralised army and a puppet regime.

This has been coming ever since the Maidan revolution when the last Russian stooge tried to defy the democratic will of the Ukrainian people and veto a trade deal with EU.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787683#Comment_118787683

Care to post these demands then? All I can find are:

demilitarisation

recognise crimea, LPR, DPR

militarily neutral

I dont see anything there about wanting a puppet regime

seamus

@pixelburp wrote:

So, the question becomes: at what point is it just not worth the hassle anymore for Putin - and what is the best case "I'm taking the ball home" scenario acceptable to everyone, that allows Russia to leave with "dignity" intact? Maybe if Kyiv falls, or Zelensky is captured/killed, the spine of the resistance will be broken, but I highly doubt it. There are no great indicators Ukranians are even remotely interested in capitulating en masse. Therefore the "special operations" get bogged down into whatever amounts to Russian Peacekeeping, perhaps needing exponentially more soldiers to keep Ukraine in check than was needed to invade the place. I can't see that playing well with Russians back home, or powerful figures aware of the truth.

Ultimately Putin is still trapped. Unless he's taking the opportunity to crush all potential internal resistance to him, then any kind of capitulation is unacceptable to him. If he withdraws with no material gain, the knives are out for him at home.

I can easily see Ukraine willing to negotiate the holding of independence polls in Donetsk and Luhansk, but on condition that there is a complete Russian withdrawal and the referenda are overseen by international observers.

Russia won't go with that though, because they don't want to hold elections that they could lose.

This is what makes the whole situation so dangerous; Putin has started a war where both sides are willing to do whatever it takes to achieve a victory.

IMHO, the only two ways which nuclear war can actually be averted here are Ukraine relenting the east or Russia removing Putin. The former seems considerably less likely than the latter, but neither seem to be close and Putin will be getting increasingly frustrated.

I'm not sure how helpful it is to have the Polish, Czech and Slovenian leaders going to Kyiv today. On one hand you'd be thinking, "No way Russia will risk killing them - even accidentally - and dragging NATO into the war". On the other hand, why wouldn't they? A careless attack on or near the leaders' transport. Russia claims that Ukrainian Nazis carried out the attack to frame Russia. Poland deploys troops into Ukraine, NATO involvement becomes nearly guaranteed. Putin gets to continue playing to the home crowd about how Russia is the victim and is just defending itself.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787554#Comment_118787554

Well, what motivation was there for the whole of Ukraine in 2022, after Georgia / Crimea / Donbas?

If Putin manages to grab and hang onto Ukraine, I’d see Transnistria as the next logical move.

Then Lithuania, for linking up with the Kaliningrad enclave and isolate Estonia and Latvia, if Trump gets in the WH year after next and takes the US out of NATO as he intended.

Lots of ‘ifs’ there, sure.

But looking at the pattern of the past decade, and his recent TV/PR musings, Putin’s territorial ambitions are clear enough, to not really have to ponder “why would he” for too long.

goldenmick

@Pussyhands - Kyiv must be relatively unscathed by missile attacks if they're willing to go there.

Really?

Do keep up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60748417

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787708#Comment_118787708

Were you not paying attention either to the whole denazification of Kiev government? What do you think that means?

The demands are that ukraine cannot join any 'bloc', that also means the EU.

"We will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine... As well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation," Putin said, repeating a baseless claim of genocide in areas of Ukraine's Donbas region controlled by Russian-backed separatists

Demilitarize.

If they don't get the puppet regime this time, they want a Ukraine so weak and vulnerable next time there'll be no opposition and they'll get it.

The only reason they've dropped it as the negotiations have gone on is how badly they are doing militarily.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787718#Comment_118787718

I've questioned before but it seems Poland is most likely to get involved in Ukraine defence. Question is, could they or would they do this outside of the framework of NATO membership? And how easy is it for them to simply declare they are no longer in NATO and engage within the hour?

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787708#Comment_118787708

Are you expecting them to say out loud - "We want remove the current government and replace them with one of our stooges" ??

Look at what they've done already with the local Mayors - They kidnap them and a few days later a new "mayor" appears telling everyone to stop fighting and just listen to Russian news to get the "truth".

Scale that up to the Government , that's exactly what they want. They do not want a strong Anti-Russian government in place , in fact they don't want a "Pro-Ukrainian" government either. What they want is a country that is reliant on Russia for it's existence , politically and financially.

A successful, western focused Ukraine is an existential threat to Putin simply because it would hold a mirror up to Russia and the Russian people would be able to look across and wonder why the Ukrainians have it much better than they do.

The "Threat" to Putin is less about NATO military installations and far more about an open successful democracy on his door-step that the Russian people would be able to see, know and understand.

Ukraine isn't there yet by any means , but it was on that road to prepping for applying for EU membership etc. etc.

That is what Putin is trying to kill off.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787755#Comment_118787755

Quite irresponsible for those leaders to go there then.

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787800#Comment_118787800

I don't know tbh. It's tricky. On one hand we know that NATO members can get involved in armed conflicts without needing the rest of NATO to dive in too. Like the US has been doing for decades.

At the same time, an attack on a NATO member effectively forces the rest to assist in their defence.

While the US went off fvkcing over the middle east on their own for 3 decades, the world trade centre attacks in Sept 2001 were a direct consequence of that; a guerilla attack, but an attack nonetheless. And NATO members were compelled by article five to get involved after that.

So, Poland sending troops into Ukraine is something they are "permitted" to do without the rest of NATO. As far as I can tell, anyway.

Of course, if Russia then decides that it is at war with Poland and launches attacks against Poland, NATO is in.

If NATO blinks at that stage and even hesitates about helping to defend Poland, then the whole agreement could collapse.

Retr0gamer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787591#Comment_118787591

It's gloating over the uk governments sociopathic response. The UK population are showing that they are better than that shower.

corkie

@liamtech

Did you read this?

Chinese officials have said the government’s stance on the Ukraine conflict is “completely objective, impartial and constructive”, and repeated accusations that the US is spreading misinformation over reports Beijing has responded positively to a Russian request for military supplies.

Beijing has refused to criticise Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, or even to refer to the conflict as a “war”.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40829054.html

liamtech

Realism, Escalation, Pressure, and the Off Ramp

https://twitter.com/stephenWalt/status/1497974709761232907?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I think its clear that Russian invasion of the Ukraine is a disaster for us all. Its a disaster for Russia, the Ukraine, Europe, NATO, and the world. All parties have a stake in this, which means all have to be satisfied in some way. I will try now (for the first time in many years) to analyse the entire conflict, and offer what i consider to be a plausible way out.

I will begin by laying out the stakes for the above parties.

Russia. Vladimir Putin has spent the better part of 8 years 'prepping' for this conflict. By prepping, we could include indoctrination of his population with Anti Ukrainian rhetoric. We must also include the engagement of his military, in the vain hope that victory would be achieved with lightening speed. Arguably, he has tied his political fate to this (mis)adventure too. In terms of Realism, thanks to the actions of Putin, the regime faces jeopardy.

Ukraine. While the most obvious victim of this war, it is still appropriate to spell out the disaster in terms of cost. The Ukraine has lost effective control of large areas of its sovereign territory. 2 regions (prompted by Moscow) have declared independence. Russian military operations have destroyed large residential areas around several cities including (but not limited to) Kharkov, and Kyiv. Politically the Ukraine is receiving aid from around the globe, but said aid excludes the one form of help which would surely tip the balance in their favor. No one has offered to directly assist militarily in their defense.

Europe and NATO. The European Union, and to be frank the continent itself faces a war unlike anything we have seen since 1945. As a trading block, Russian hostility is aimed at the EU, albeit indirectly. One of the few 'corporeal' excuses offered by the Putin regime, is that the Ukraine must NOT join the EU. It should be noted that i only state this reason for the purposes of including it as a fact. Russian reasons verge on being preposterous

NATO in particular has been neutered outside its border. Statements from the organization have reiterated that NATO territory will be defended, at all costs. We have no reason to doubt this, and the fact that Russia has not attempted to test this, should serve as further proof. HOWEVER: Therein lies the problem. The Ukraine is not 'in NATO' - Another of Russia's 'corporeal' concerns is that Ukraine may join the defense block, and this they seek to deter.

The World. I dont view it as an understatement to suggest that the entire world has been involved in this conflict. Economically, the western world and its allies have sanctioned Russia, and this is no small thing. Gas prices, Oil trading, delivery logistics have all been affected. Further to this, the threat of Nuclear war has re-appeared for the first time since the cold war. State actors, organizations and multinational corporations, have been forced to 'chose sides' - fence sitting will become less and less comfortable as this situation continues to escalate.

The Russian Argument. It goes without saying that Russia is the aggressor in this situation. I and others have argued along this line from day one. Therefore in assessing the reasons we can divide them into REAL, and UNREAL perceived threats - i use the word 'perceived' in order to highlight the view of the Putin regime. I should wish to point out that, I do not SHARE this view;

• Ukraine joining NATO - While accepting that NATO is a defensive block, we can assume that Putin (arguably a relic of the cold war) views it in terms of the organization being the traditional enemy of Russia
• Ukraine Joining the EU - clear wish to not have the Ukraine join the EU, and to keep it in the Russian 'sphere of influence'
• Ukraine representing an existential Threat to Russia - an UNREAL perception not based in reality. And proven so by the conflict. Saying that the Ukraine is being very effective at fighting the Russian army is factual. Stating that the Ukraine could effectively defeat Russia, AS A WHOLE, is nonsensical.
• Ukraine being a new Fascistic state (neo-nazi) another UNREAL perception. I would go as far as to call it a manufactured crisis. Yes, there are some neo nazis in the Ukraine. NO, they do not have any real power within the Ukraine. The Ukraine is VERIFIABLY not a Neo Nazi state
• Ukrainian genocide of Ethnic Russians in the East I argue that this is also an UNREAL perception. While accepting that a proxy conflict has taken place in the East of Ukraine, between Ukraine and pro Russian forces, to call this a genocide is nonsense. AT MOST it is a 'Northern Irish Troubles' style conflict, which it should be noted: was triggered by Russian actions in 2014.
• Ukraine being an American/Western Proxy Arguably the most obvious UNREAL perceived issue RE this conflict. If it were true, the US/NATO would have acted. They have not, therefore nothing more to argue.

The Pressure.

Economic sanctions, pariah status, exclusion from various multinational organizations. Russia is facing a whirlwind of economic sanctions from the West and western Aligned states. We have also seen, extraordinarily, that multi national companies are voluntarily ceasing to deal with Russia. An exodus of western companies has taken place from within the Russian Federation. Economically Russia has retaliated by threatening to nationalize company property left inside Russia. Not since Cuba in the 1950s have we observed such actions.

Militarily, Russia has observed (with growing frustration) the west continue to arm the Ukrainian forces, with whom they are fighting. While they act to deter this support, it will seemingly continue. It could further escalate as, we have seen discussions around more modern equipment, take place over the last 72 hours.

The OFF RAMP need not be Mutually Exclusive to the Pressure

I posted days ago in IMHO/CA that we should not see support/pressure, and an off ramp as being mutually exclusive. I will use the same analogy i used then, to highlight this situation:

The football match: Russia is playing a football match which as far as they know, is a MUST WIN GAME. They began expecting victory to be easily achieved. To their astonishment, their opposition has retarded every attack they have made. they continue to play, becoming more and more desperate. The ref has cautioned the excesses of a few players; Their opponents are not attempting to win the game, their tactics involve beating every Russian push and preventing Russia from taking the lead. Frustration is now endemic among the Russian team. The crowd is entirely against Russia. The team stands alone

-Russian manager receives a call - RESULTS ELSEWHERE MEAN A DRAW WILL DO - the off ramp

The pressure, literally makes this off ramp even more attractive. The escalation of pressure will further sweeten this escape hatch, and will (hopefully~) make it the only rational course of action that remains open to Moscow

A Hypothetical Off Ramp

In my opinion, only two ACTUAL CORPOREAL concerns need be addressed. The EU Question, and NATO - we could add a further sweetener to a Russian Off Ramp - the removal of sanctions

• The EU. Russia has chosen to view the EU as hostile. I do not believe it need be viewed this way, and any hostility that now exists is a direct result of Russian actions. This hostility will, therefore, naturally subside (although not be forgotten) at the conclusion of hostilities.
• NATO - the meat and bones of the argument. Not that i grant any serious validity to Russia's position. We have already seen that the Ukrainian President has stated publicly that he has 're examined' the Ukrainian wish to join NATO. RESULT FOR Moscow folks

A peace plan seems possible

The Ukraine could formally adopt guaranteed Neutrality. Said position could be endorsed and guaranteed by both Russia, and NATO. After the Napoleonic era, Belgium was viewed as the 'backdoor that swung both ways', that is: A doorway to Paris for the Germans. And a Doorway to Berlin for the French. The great powers at the time agreed to mutually guarantee the Belgian position. Taking this as a valid analogy for the Ukraine an 'Armed Neutral Position', internationally recognized by two Nuclear armed blocs, seems a likely compromise.

• Russia gains guarantee that NATO will not station troops in the Ukraine
• NATO guarantees that the Ukraine will NOT be further molested by Moscow.
• The UN could observe and assure this neutral stance - if either bloc violates this - the other retains the right to intervene
• The Ukraine is an Armed Neutral, subject to inspection and interaction with both sides.
• The Ukraine CAN (and will) join the EU but be absolved from any eventual defense pact that may be incorporated into said union as a result of this conflict. They are 'Ireland on the Black Sea'

Combine to this, a few more possibilities:

• Crimea, Defacto under Russian control. A sweetener could be that we accept reality. DeJure Russian control of Crimea. A Sweetener for the Ukraine. Russia assists and compensates Ukrainian nationals that wish to relocate to Ukraine proper.
• The Eastern 'Statelets' - territory could be ceded to Russia (or a new proxy) - i suspect this to be inevitable but it need not be catastrophic. Similar to the above, Russia compensates Ukraine, in exchange for Ukrainian acceptance
• Russia compensates the Ukraine for the damage caused to its infrastructure - not a WAR GUILT CLAUSE PER SAY - history has demonstrated that this is counter productive. I would further add that the west should (in my view would) be content to play a large financial role with rebuilding the Ukraine.

Conclusion and a few notes

Russia is entirely in the wrong. My preferred outcome would be that the Regime of Putin Collapse. I suspect i am not alone on this, and it pains me to suggest that Russia gain anything from their actions. But the above does (in my view) offer something of a possible WAY OUT. It will end the blood shed, and allow us to step back from the brink. Realism recognizes the reality of geopolitical situations, it advocates the supreme importance of State Survival above all else. I have been posting repeatedly for days. My heart is with the Ukrainians. The above is just an outline of survival for all sides. Subsequent to a Russian withdrawal, if Putin should suffer an unfortunate accident, and or, have to relocate to a secure compound in Krasnoyarsk - i shed no tears. I hope thats clear.

A further note. There are several users who i am ignoring. I will continue to do so. I am happy to debate the above with all others. But if your argument equates to my ignorence of 'Nazis under the bed in Donbas' - i wont be taking that seriously at all.

As to citations: Happy to provide - its a long post folks - to be honest everything i have said is verifiable, and has links scattered throughout this thread. But if you take issue with any particular point - of course, raise your objection in good faith, and i will be happy to respond.

Finally - im not an international diplomat. and this is NOT MY THREAD - so please feel free to ignore - its just my take which has been fermenting for a week. After the back and forth of last night - i decided to put my money where my mouth is so - rip it to shreds if you will!

thanks for reading THE LONGEST POST I HAVE EVER PLACED

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787888#Comment_118787888

I don't think NATO members HAVE to immediately go on the offensive. I'm sure there'd have to be a vote of NATO members first. Otherwise, couldn't Croatia declare that small drone as an attack and then all of NATO would need to attack Russia.

I don't think 9/11 similarities can be used as the twin towers attack had everyone baying for blood. If the poles go into Ukraine then I don't think NATO will be happy.

An Indian Major General being very blunt:

• Russia won't back down
• CIA backed propaganda and echo-chambers is giving the West a false understanding of events, Russian "difficulties", likely outcome
• It is a question of how long does Zelensky want to continue an unequal fight
• Western toys (javelins etc) prolong a conflict, cannot win a war
• Arming civilians, beauty queens is madness
• The West is cheerleading Ukrainians into disaster

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iaq-jw4F3M

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787825#Comment_118787825

NATO maybe, but not EU. Ukraine was not on the path to the European Union as they barely met the first of any criteria for entry. Turkey had a better chance of admission in the next decade than Ukraine. "Open successful democracy?" What are you smoking? Ukraine was a corrupt oligarchs playground, exploited both by East and West for their resources (natural and human - and not the good kind of "human resources")

There seems to be huge amount of revisionism or rose tinted glasses here post-invasion, trying to colour Ukraine as a paragon of human rights and democracy when it was a bastion of corruption, and widely accepted as same.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788019#Comment_118788019

Didnt you get the memo? You arent allowed to say Ukraine is losing - its Russian propaganda. Ukrainian men being forced to fight & not allowed to leave the country is great patriotism, not a tragedy.

Varik

Turkey's involvement in Syria would be the closer comparison, they even at multiple stages announced plans to invoke article 5 but didn't seem to get much support on that from other Nato members.

Polish troops fighting in Ukraine is one thing but for them to do anything they'd need to hit the s-400 / 300 batteries in Belarus which cover most of western Ukraine.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118787928#Comment_118787928

Nah there's a huge hoard of people who hate the brits.

Yet another example here.

Kay Burley says to Ukrainian refugees in Dublin that rest assured, the British people are behind you and it's being construed that Burley thinks Dublin is British.

There was no "correction"...Burley said the British people support you and then they said they wanted to thank the Irish people.

https://www.joe.ie/news/ukrainian-refugees-dublin-immediately-correct-kay-burley-british-people-comment-sky-news-744337?fbclid=IwAR040AARGc8awKXazGl2gJr44ZyURBpBddddLXMFd0nyEKwtfyPskBuzfks#l0s3qfqjhoda31nen5

Fighting Tao

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788068#Comment_118788068

Didn’t you get the memo that no one here claimed that Ukraine would win the war with Russia. However they have made Putin look like a fool by putting up a resistance and showing him that he is only loved in places where he can strike fear like Orwell Road.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788060#Comment_118788060

I'm not for a moment suggesting that Ukraine was anything like a fully functioning democracy , but they were beginning to move in that direction.

Their position on the Global corruption index, whilst still WAY down the list had been steadily improving over the last few years and Zelensky had been taking steps to cut out the most egregious aspects of corruption.

They've gone from a score of 25 in 2013 to a score of 33 last year, still pretty bad but the upward trend is clear. As a comparison Turkey is at 40 on the same scale.

So - Not a democracy yet by any means, but trying to get there , that's what Putin doesn't like.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788093#Comment_118788093

Don't think Putin cares what anyone thinks. Do you?

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788068#Comment_118788068

Ah timmy, you just said they were "losing"...invalidating your own somewhat stupid statement!

Don't think Ukrainians could be "forced to fight" in the way that they have whatever measures govt. might adopt in extremis (you know, when another state/nation generally considered one of the world's great powers is throwing the kitchen sink at ending your existence as a nation!).

It's both "patriotism" and "a tragedy" as they are not mutually exclusive. Seems Russia/Putin are just a misery & tragedy making machine, and they wither everything they touch.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788060#Comment_118788060

Ukraine was on the path to the European Union. You have created a strawman argument here that "path to" and "about to join" are the same thing.

What kicked off the Maidan revolution was the corrupt russian stooge trying to defy the democratic will of the Ukranian people by refusing to sign a political and economic treaty with the EU.

That is the path towards the European Union and away from Russia's orbit, and the future Putin wants for Ukraine as a Russian colony with an appointed puppet, like the Belarus low rent Goering.

An EU trading with Ukraine is an EU less dependant on Russia.

If you don't think any of this factored into Putin's view then you really don't have a clue what's going on, or pretend not to.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788019#Comment_118788019

He's backing India's support of Russia (key trading partner) which is why he's echoing pro-Putin stuff

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788093#Comment_118788093

Plus the future of Ukraine is very different if it has fallen in 3 days to a coup d'etat, to an unconditional surrender versus a negotiated settlement because Ukraine have made the invasion too costly for Russia. It's not about 'winning', it's about losing more slowly and making the other side hurt at the same time.

Dohnjoe

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1503703096702246921

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788019#Comment_118788019

He makes some fair points but there's a lot of nonsense in there too:

• He states that Russia "has all the time in the world". That's simply not true. Invasions are expensive to wage - in terms of cost, loss of troops and the affects of sanctions. They're already begging China for help and trawling the likes of Syria for warm bodies to send to the front while at the same time their economy is crumbling - slowly yes but crumbling nonetheless.
• The whole tone is extremely patronising of the Ukrainians - basically making it out that they are the hapless victims here , with no agency of their own, being fed a pack of lies by Westerners and if they had any sense they'd just bend over and take their medicine from the Russians for their own long term good. I suspect if the Chinese were invading India this particular general would be singing a different tune.
• "Stingers and Javelins are toys" - ffs, tell that to all of the Russian tank, helicopter and various other equipment operators who have been killed and maimed by them. Along with the Bayraktar drones these have made a huge difference to the Ukrainian cause. Yes the Ukrainians have been asking for other equipment but they also continue to ask for these weapons.