Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789039#Comment_118789039

There's an entire Canadian battalion in the Ukrainian army, they've had so many joining up. I wonder is there a particularly large Ukrainian population in Canada?

SafeSurfer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789012#Comment_118789012

I can’t agree with you.

If one started a discussion on WW1 for example only from 28th July 1914, or from the German invasion of Belgium, the discussion would be missing a lot of what is relevant if not essential to the discussion.

Events do not happen in a vacuum and cannot be discussed in a vacuum.

It seems strange that context should be discouraged in the politics forum.

I think it is absurd to argue that if Ukraine had

“butchered a million children ten years ago” it would be irrelevant to how an attack on that country would be viewed today.

Would people be queuing up to house citizens of a country who had killed a million children 10 years ago?

kksaints

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/canada-ukraine-diaspora-relief-efforts-russia-attack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789048#Comment_118789048

There is apparently, something like 1.4 million of Ukrainian descent.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788019#Comment_118788019

I may not be a major general, but I’m not seeing anything in that list of bullet points, that has any validity more authoritative than its contrary.

Besides, speaking of ‘unequal fight’, ‘toys’, ‘arming civilians’ and ‘cheerleading’…

…Russia’s offensive is stalled (edit: again), to all intents and purposes, and Russia is fast running out of first line military to throw at it.

That war isn’t any more winnable by Russia than Ukraine now, still less any peace which a ‘winning’ Russia may try to enforce.

Now, where does India stand about this Ukraine business, again?

Oh.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788568#Comment_118788568

Poster said that Putins rationale for invading Ukraine was because he didnt want a democratic free state next door to highlight how corrupt things are in Russia.

Then I pointed out how corrupt Ukraine actually is and all of a sudden its russian propaganda. Nowhere did I state Ukrainian corruption delegitimises its statehood - that was your own suggestion, not mine.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789157#Comment_118789157

Again a strawman. Nothing of what you say counters the argument. That is why it is Russian propaganda you are repeating, without foundation.

It is that Ukraine was moving on a path away from Russia and on the path to the EU. The same path as Poland, Baltic states, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria.

Should Putin have waited until the EU was just about to sign on the dotted line to actually become an EU member?

The path they started on when they threw out the corrupt Russian stooge in the Maidan revolution, and signed the political and economic treaty with the EU. Instead of signing up to become a Russian client.

That political and economic treaty includes measures for Ukraine to reform its institutions and economy to align with the EU.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789074#Comment_118789074

At a very simple level if one wanted to answer the question "Why did Russia invade Ukraine last month?" , one thing we can say with categoric certainty is that the existence or otherwise of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine had absolutely no role whatsoever in the decision.

We can also say that any allegations of "war crimes" supposedly committed by Ukraine in the Donbas region also had nothing to do with the decision made by Putin.

By all means we can discuss the actions of the US/NATO over the last few decades up to and including the war games in the Black Sea last year involving the Ukrainian military. We can also discuss the actions of Russia and their operatives in Donbas or the annexation of Crimea among lots of other actions undertaken by Russia to undermine Ukrainian independence.

But , repeatedly bringing up "But but what about the Nazis?" and "What about the bad things that Ukraine did in the past?" DO NOT form any part of a reasonable discussion on why we are where we are today.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789171#Comment_118789171

Do you have any proof that Putin invaded Ukraine because they were more open, democratic and free than Russia, and he didnt want a less corrupt neighbour showing him up? He'll have a stroke when he sees Poland and the Baltics in that case

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788982#Comment_118788982

The Russians are banned from publishing anything about troop movements/activities - I think its an instant prison sentence. It makes sense too, because that kind of carry on can be the death of you. I think it was the death of some Ukrainian reservists in the past - people are trawling social media looking for footage and posts from everyone to find out troop locations - thats modern war for ya.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789214#Comment_118789214

Hold on a second. You started out this sub thread asking what was Putin's motivation.

Where was your 'proof' of you own assertion it was to do with NATO?

When other posters respond referencing Putin's actual speeches, and events in Ukraine, you ignore them or strawman.

When posters reference other motivations, your demand proof. Proof you fail to provide for your own view, whatever that is.

You think this is stuff that gets written down?

I can't tell if you are being deliberately disingenuous, or Russian propaganda has done a number on you. But this charade is threadbare.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789224#Comment_118789224

Shur didnt my Russian handlers tell me it was NATO, as did Putin himself in his pre-war announcements and warnings.

I have not heard anyone (other than posters in this thread) claim it was because Ukraine were becoming democratic and fair and this reflected poorly on Russia itself.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789214#Comment_118789214

I think part of the argument about why Ukraine is different to a Poland or the Baltics also plays to the reasons why Putin feels that Ukraine is really Russia and not a separate country.

They can explain away a Poland et al because they "aren't really Russian and it's not the same" , that's much much harder to do with Ukraine

As an analogy it's a gross over-simplification but look at how the British government are fighting so hard about the NI Protocol for an idea of the root cause.

They'll give you all kinds of reasons , but when it really comes down to it they know that an NI that retains opening trading with the EU will act as a beacon to the British public of how terrible a decision BREXIT was , so they can't let that happen and they'll happily ruin the NI economy to do so.

They can explain away a successful Irish Economy to an extent , but that would be impossible to do for a booming NI.

SafeSurfer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789171#Comment_118789171

Corruption is measured and they are pretty much equally corrupt. A score of 29 vs 32 on the corruption index.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-corrupt-countries

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789257#Comment_118789257

You obviously weren't even paying attention to Putin's pre-war speeches where he claimed Ukraine as part of Russia, but sure that didn't stop you parroting the Russian propaganda line that it was all about NATO without question.

Why do you think Putin would object to Ukraine signing trade deals and starting on the path to EU membership?

What do you think that says about Russia, that every country free to choose its own destiny (i.e. not run by a tinpot dictator like Belarus) has sought to align itself with the EU and not Russia? And even Ukraine, with its close cultural connections to Russia starts on that path?

Losing a permanent hold on Ukraine, and letting it fall into the Western orbit, was seen by many as a major blow to Russia’s international prestige.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-crossroads-europe-and-russia

At some point between 2004 and 2013, Putin decided that he perceived the Europeanisation of Ukraine as a threat – a fundamental challenge to his model of authoritarian rule.

https://theconversation.com/a-short-history-of-ukraines-relationship-with-the-european-union-178350

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789096#Comment_118789096

Indeed, it's just guff from one general, from a nation which has strong trade ties with Russia.

To go into the war side of things

It's a common trap for people to believe that because one side is losing, the other must be "winning". Both sides can be losing.

Russia is a military super-power, they are very potent, Ukraine is in a severe situation, but all the elements of surprise, speed, etc have completely gone from Russia's advance, which has slowed to a WW1 style crawl (for now)

In terms of material lost (independently verified with visual evidence), Ukraine has lost 355 pieces of equipment (tanks, helicopters, trucks, etc) whereas Russia has lost 1,300. A ratio of over 3 to 1. In just 3 weeks.

On top of that a significant amount of tanks and other vehicles are actually being abandoned by Russian soldiers, and those are being captured and reincorporated into the Ukrainian military, who have captured a net of 358 Russian vehicles and tanks.

Russia should be dominating in the air, but 3 weeks in they aren't. Much of the Ukrainian AF is still intact. The Turkish drones, which were dismissed by military experts, are still flying, and Russia seems to have difficulty taking them down, which is almost bizarre. Allied (easier just to call it Allied) anti-air equipment is constantly entering Ukraine.

In terms of manpower, the balance shifts significantly, the Ukrainian army and national guard is actually close in strength to that of Russia, but they have a massive military reserve of almost 1 million (who have received some military training in the last 5 years). These men are highly motivated in comparison to Russian soldiers, they are defending their homes, their families. There's been a huge influx of Ukrainian expats and foreign fighters. The fact that Putin is scrambling for any foreign mercenaries is the clearest possible signal that the Ru military manpower and morale is not in good shape.

Russia's key strength is artillery. However supplies are coming under increasing attacks from Ukrainian counter-attacks, and they appear to be having successes. The Russians have to field 55% of their armed forces in the field in a foreign country, it's 300,000 meals a day, huge amount of fuel for tanks, ammunition and shells. The whole time they're taking attrition.

Again, Russia is extremely potent, but every day it's barely creeping forward in this invasion of Ukraine is a day it's losing. Standing still is going backwards. And the war economy to back it up is being gradually crippled by sanctions. Russia still has a few tricks up it's sleeve, nasty options, but the invasion is certainly not going as planned.

Things could change dramatically this week, they could start making progress, but so far that's not the case. 4 major generals killed out of 20, at this stage in the conflict? It's crazy

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789311#Comment_118789311

Indeed - but where was Ukraine on that index before the Maiden uprising and where are they now?

2013 , Ukraine was at 25 , they are now at 32/33.

A very long way to go , but they are making efforts.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789311#Comment_118789311

But One is steadily improving over the last 8 years and one is permanently corrupt

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789257#Comment_118789257

Ukraine began striving toward a more western-values based system of Government. Attempting to reduce corruption, kicking out Russian proxies. Liberalizing laws on civil liberties. Stating clearly a wish/ambition to join the European Union, thereby aligning their laws and standards with said organization.

APPARENTLY COINCIDENTAL TO THIS

Russia occupies Crimea

Arms separatists in the Donbass, while encouraging them to affirm their Russian identity

Kicks off a localized 'Troubles like' conflict

Regions cede unilaterally from Ukraine and on Moscows nod request assistance from the Russian Federation.

Russian invade the entire Ukraine, to annex it , denazify, Take it into a Russian Orbit. 'liberate it'

APPARENTLY COINCIDENTAL TO THESE EVENTS

What thin veil of liberality present within the Russian federation slips - the country bans free speech. Arrests journalists. Some free press voluntarily cease production. Old women holding signs are dragged forcibly into vans arrested for denouncing the war special military operation.

General Russian thesis, ignoring 'Nazis under the bed' - the Ukraine is a fake country - it is really just Russia - and we want it back. They will welcome living in a free Russia

but YES OF COURSE @timmyntc

It has nothing to do with democratization. Nothing what so ever to do with the Ukraine wanting a better future than that of being a Satellite of a dictatorship

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789157#Comment_118789157

Its all NATO's fault, and Ukraine's corruption.

Thanks for setting us straight, i feel a fool for missing the facts

Please - for the love of sanity - go to FREEDOM HOUSE - look at the statistics of both Ukraine, and Russia - compare and contrast = and realize that Russia's score HAS NOT YET TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE LAST FEW WEEKS OF DE-LIBERALIZATION

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789257#Comment_118789257

Here's an article talking about exactly the points I was making

Ukraine is becoming more westernized, it’s becoming more diverse and has a regime that he cannot control. Over time, it sets an example for others in Russia who would like to become more democratic. It provides a counter example to Russia’s autocratic dictatorial system. You have these rows of dominoes, one Color Revolution after another, and at the end of the domino series is Russia. All this is dangerous for him.

Brussels Sprout

Oh wow. Looks like an Irish citizen has been killed in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1503767266315411465

Bad few days for journalists over there. I wonder will some of them be yanked out of their by their employers now.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118788019#Comment_118788019

Yes, this general is not swallowing the western propaganda about this war. Seems like a sharp guy.

Once you heard Zelensky calling for the no fly zone, and blaming the west for any further deaths, you knew this was his last desperate attempt to stay in the fight. Without control of the air, they have no chance. Convoys moving at a snail's pace, without being hit by the Ukrainian air force and they expect us to believe that Russia are taking a severe beating... you'd really want to be seriously gullible.

And he is correct, western leaders are more interested in using Ukraine to make Russia look bad. There has been talk of turning Ukraine into Russia's new Afghanistan... I feel sorry for the Ukrainians being handed javelins and other fancy toys, thinking they can win. It's actually pretty cruel.

Hopefully we can see some great diplomatic efforts, and bring the suffering to an end as soon as possible. Sadly, I think it may result in a far less favorable deal for Ukraine than they might have gotten from Moscow prior to the conflict.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789391#Comment_118789391

I would speculate that the Russians would be hoping for just that. Without western eyes they can blatantly label all Ukrainian reports as propaganda. It would serve their interests.

That said, safety of journalists is a real issue - Its horrifying. Im at a loss on what to do if journalists begin to leave - and seeing so many label the Ukrainian reports as 'propaganda', even here on this thread.. abysmal

seamus

Many/most of the journalists operating in war zones are freelance. They may have regional exclusivity arrangements/retainers with certain publishers, but they're free to go where they want.

As you suggest, employees of a paper or TV station aren't going to be placed within active warzones, for many reasons including insurance. If an employee of theirs was killed while on an assignment in a warzone, they'd probably be finished, financially.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789401#Comment_118789401

A Javelin is not a toy. It kills Russian tanks.

So obviously you dont have much of a point when you have to resort to twisting of language - proof positive you dont have a case.

If you want to know what kind of agreement Ukraine would have been offered look to Munich 1938. It would not have meant peace it would just be war by other means to cripple Ukraine army and one step on the way to ending up like Belarus.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789373#Comment_118789373

Ah yes, the University of Rochester. A journalistic titan.

Their credentials aside, its strange how none of the big publications toe the same line as you, about how Putins motivations were driven by Ukraine becoming too free and setting a "bad example" of how Russians can be better off outside Putin's thumb.

Larger US papers which would be firmly on the side of Ukraine, and have no accusations of Russian bias, echo the NATO encroaching sentiment, and while not coming to any conclusive statements (how could anyone know for sure) they certainly dont imply its anything to do with your point.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html

Mr. Putin appears intent on winding back the clock more than 30 years, establishing a broad, Russian-dominated security zone resembling the power Moscow wielded in Soviet days. Now 69 years old and possibly edging toward the twilight of his political career, he clearly wants to draw Ukraine, a nation of 44 million people, back into Russia’s sphere of influence.

Russia presented NATO and the United States in December with a set of written demands that it said were needed to ensure its security. Foremost among them are a guarantee that Ukraine would never join NATO, that NATO draw down its forces in the Eastern European countries that have already joined, and that the 2015 cease-fire in Ukraine be implemented — though Moscow and Kyiv disagree sharply on what that would mean.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-war-invasion-whats-happening-11646157211

https://theconversation.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-178512

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789074#Comment_118789074

However you would discuss the causes of World War 1.

Ukranian corruption is not a reason Russia invaded. Why would it want to end the corruption before its own worse corruption?

Neo nazis are not a reason for the war. Russia has more than enough fascists and the ones in Ukraine were not a threat to Russia.

NATO is not a reason for the war unless Putin's aim was to increase NATO funding and encourage other neighbouring countries to start talking about membership. Again this makes no sense whatsoever and we're obvious outcomes to a large scale invasion.

None of these points are relevant to the war in Ukraine. I guess if Ukraine had managed to join NATO earlier it would have likely avoided invasion though this is an issue with not being Western facing enough.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789401#Comment_118789401

Hopefully we can see some great diplomatic efforts, and bring the suffering to an end as soon as possible. Sadly, I think it may result in a far less favorable deal for Ukraine than they might have gotten from Moscow prior to the conflict.

I'm sorry , but this is just nonsense.

What exactly would have been "better" about whatever Putin was offering before the conflict?

Putin was coming one way or another , suggestions that he would have been happy with anything other than complete political control over Ukraine is just beyond mad.

He wants Ukraine to be just like Belarus , a subservient client state with a leadership utterly reliant on Putins imprimatur for their existence.

He would have accepted nothing less.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789450#Comment_118789450

Does it kill Russian artillery and rockets?

Does it kill Russia's vastly superior air force?

It's not a toy, when used in conjunction with many other weapons. It can very much be a force multiplier, when used intelligently. But considering what they're up against overall, it pretty much is a fancy expensive toy.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789472#Comment_118789472

Ukraine will undoubtedly get a better deal now than they would have before all this, but with the Chinese rowing in behind Putin and India negotiating to buy Russian oil in Rupee or Yuan it seems the Russians can hold on yet and prolong this.

Brussels Sprout

It looks like there has been movement of the naval forces toward Odessa.

Now I would have thought that the Russians would first need to get past Mykolaiv so that they could assault Odessa by land as well. As far as I know Mykolaiv is still holding out so perhaps the naval forces are just getting into position.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1503732767569420296

Apparently the beaches of Odessa have all been mined so it may be quite difficult for those aquatic vehicles to land. Perhaps they have some fancy equipment for dealing with that.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118789473#Comment_118789473

Russia's vastly superior air force which is having to fly low to evade the still active Ukranian air defences, thereby leaving itself vulnerable to the stingers supplied by NATO. Remind me, have Ukranian air defences been neutralised?

It's an anti-tank weapon, why would it kill their air force? Stop being so disingenuous.

It's a WEAPON designed to destroy tanks and it is destroying Russian tanks.

But that's a toy according to you.

I think that tells us a lot about what kind of input we can expect from you.