Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Pussyhands

Stories changing by the minute. Ukraine say they're closer, how all wars end in agreement and then they say they won't accept a Sweden/Austria neutrality situation.

Ukraine you feel will have to make concessions unless they want to turn their cities into rubble. The EU will then have to pay to rebuild them costing billions.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793055#Comment_118793055

This is what the BBC is reporting - seems like they want more guarantees against a repeat of Russian invasion. Assuming NATO membership is off the table & they aren't in the EU yet so unlike Sweden and Austria would not be covered by its mutual defence pact.

"We understand the attempt of our partners to remain proactive in the negotiation process," Podoliak said. "Hence the words about the" Swedish" or "Austrian model" of neutrality. But Ukraine is now in a state of direct war with Russia." "Therefore, the model can only be "Ukrainian" and only with legally verified security guarantees. And no other models or options."

liamtech

If we are seeing evidence of Russian suggestions of an Austria/Sweden type Ukraine - that could be massive, re Russian acceptance of eventual EU membership for Kyiv - When you consider that two weeks ago the demands were - surrender, denazify, no NATO, no EU

Seems that some parameters of my hypothetical may eventual come to the floor

It could be seen as closer to reality now. I still maintain we need that third party guarantor - and they need to be armed sufficiently to deter Russia (aka nuclear armed)

NATO - assume unacceptability to Russia

China - Assume unacceptability to West/EU/NATO/Sanity

India - ? I dont know - mere speculation

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118792979#Comment_118792979

This could be the major stumbling block for Russia at this time. One way or another when this war ends their forces and their economy will be substantially weakened, meaning their threat is considerably lessened.

All of the warnings thrown out 3 weeks ago look meeker by the day and the likes of Finland and Sweden have never had a better opportunity to join NATO. Public acceptance of such a move will be way up, and Russia has nothing to back up its threats.

Of course while Russia (and NATO) is looking in one direction, there's a strong chance that some will take this opportunity to try and further their political aims, leaving Russia wrestling insurgencies in other occupied territories, and potentially even internally. Not to mention the fact that the US, China and other actors would be actively encouraging such acts and feeding them intel.

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793055#Comment_118793055

Why do you feel Ukraine should have to make concessions? Do you think they are morally or ethically obliged to?

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118792979#Comment_118792979

Its staggering when you think about it. If Russia could have a do-over, they would almost certainly NOT invade the Ukraine. Even with a peace deal (and we are no where near that as of yet) -their reputation has been squandered (what reputation they had i hear you say, and its a valid question)

Russian goals/strengths lie in ruins

NATO is stronger than ever, perhaps soon to have new members.

The EU has a new MOJO re what it is prepared to do in the future - new precedents exist now (providing military support)

Germany has 'gotten over' the 'defense only' stance

The EU will (over a yet to be determined timeline) remove its dependence on Russian energy

and most of all

The Russian Military has been shown to be FAR weaker than anyone realized (this may be the biggest OWN GOAL this invasion has brought)

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793210#Comment_118793210

I should say too that easing the burden of the above Russian 'Own Goals' - while it would be a massive sweetener for a peace deal - i cannot see it happening at all.

They MIGHT see a slow reduction of Economic sanctions - and perhaps some 'boycotting' companies will return - Swift may come back. And global energy companies may begin to buy Russian Oil again - but as to the rest? Hard to see an 'All's forgiven friend' kinda scenario

Sam Russell

Following a peace deal, after an observed cease fire, the removal of sanctions against Russia will only occur in areas that suit the EU and USA, and do not help Russia much.

Of course, Putin's demise following a palace coup could change all this, providing the new lot were more acceptable.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793192#Comment_118793192

I don't think they should have to but....I'd personally be questioning whether not giving up an inch would be worth it when your whole country is bombed into rubble.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793302#Comment_118793302

Incompetence seems to be engrained in the Russian political system.

I initially thought Putin might provide a period of stability and rationality when he first got the job but this has been shown up over the years since as a wretched pipe dream

The USA is hardly any better with the relection of their own brand of lunacy in the offing.

It seems that Ukraine may have done the international community more service than could possibly be imagined and should be given an Extraordinary Nobel prize for Peace at the first opportunity

tooka

My take is the power of the Russians on the ground means very little , it is the Russian weapons of mass destruction that is the key issue

its a fine line Kiev are playing, trying to get a peace deal that gives Ukraine something of an independent future and knowing that if talks do not produce a deal Russia will more than likely level Kiev

I think the UK sanctions also has not helped, if they held their powder dry they could be the independent third party broker that is needed here to get a deal that would suit Russia, Ukraine and the EU

goldenmick

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793361#Comment_118793361

But then you're simply sending a signal that you'll likely cave in again should another invasion/war be started by Russia in the future.

Ukraine have chosen their stance, and the country has already been for the main part turned to rubble with millions displaced. Do you think they've endured all this, thus far, to simply cede an "inch" now?

I believe they are made of sterner stuff and will fight to the last man if necessary. But I still don't believe it will come to that as Putin will now be looking for a saving face way out of this self-inflicted quagmire he's gotten himself into. The immense pressure he must be feeling from all quarters now, and the economy of Russia being decimated by the day, means that unless he is truly "Hitler power mad" then he will compromise in some way diplomatically very soon.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118792724#Comment_118792724

It's a lot more complicated then that.

The Russian Federation is made up of 85 different groupings. Most of them are oblasts or krais where Russians are mostly in the majority but it also has 22 Republics. In these Russians tend to either be in the minority or make up a plurality of the population.

Now in the past these Republics enjoyed quite a lot of autonomy within the Russian S.S.R. They have their own languages, anthems and were basically self ruling. Putin removed that autonomy when he made it so that all of these were run more centrally - apart from Chechnya as it happens.

Compare Chechnya with its neighbour Dagestan for example. Both are majority muslim republics in the Caucuses. Chechnya is run by Ramzan Kadyrov who can basically do whatever he wants using his own local security forces without any interference from Moscow - so long as he keeps a lid on "terrorism". Ironically enough Chechnya is probably the least likely of the Republics to try and break away. In contrast, Dagestan is stuffed full of federal troops making it a de-facto police state where the police are outsiders. There is massive resentment of Moscow there and they had many young men leave to go and join ISIS.

Right now there is resentment bubbling in a lot of these Republics. They are suffering the consequences of this war (both economic and having their young men dying fighting in Ukraine) without seeing any benefit of it - there is grumblings of this being "Moscow's war".

Most of them have small populations (the largest is just over 4 million) so ordinarily they would have no chances but then again Ireland was one of the smallest countries in the British Empire in 1916 at a time when Britain was engaged in WW1.

Sam Russell

I think the question should be asked - 'What has Putin achieved so far?'

Well, I think Crimea could be ceded to Russia in a peace deal. It was Russian until in the 1950s Khrushchev ceded to to Ukraine - he was Ukrainian. It is a Russian naval base since forever, and is largely Russian.

Also, Belarus was nearly taken over by opposition forces, but Lukashenko prevailed by using nasty brute force. It is now unlikely he will be displaced anytime soon, if Putin continues to give him support.

Unfortunately, he has shown his ground forces to be incompetent, and logistics sadly poorly planned. His tanks and other armour not much of a challenge to hand held Javelin missiles. Heavy causalities is an issue that will be a propaganda difficulty to be explained to all those Russian mammies when he body bags start arriving from the non-existent war in Ukraine.

His crumbling economy cannot be hidden for much longer. Another propaganda headache.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118790737#Comment_118790737

What will become of Ukraine?

However this crisis ends, they will need to have some sort of working relationship with Russia. This is a certainty, as without this it will be very difficult to avoid future clashes.

Is there a possibility that Ukraine could feel slightly betrayed by the west, for not doing enough to help them? I am not saying this is my position. But we might see a bit of that sentiment growing, which could mean that their future is not as straight forward as some might imagine. It could be much more complex.

I don't disagree with the view that Russia have made themselves look bad. War is an ugly monstrous solution to a problem, so you are always going to look bad when you choose that option. It's unavoidable. But there is a view out there, that taking Russia down is at least as important as helping Ukraine. I mean, do sanctions really help Ukraine in the short to medium term? Debatable I guess, but we'll have to wait and see on that one. Countries like China don't really see sanctions as a good solution to this situation.

Regarding your last point, is there an argument for what method you use when defending yourself though? There is a middle ground surely between appeasement and being prepared to fight to the death for your principals?

There are plenty of people who would encourage Ukraine to watch their country burn to ground, rather than compromise on any fundamental issue with Russia. But many of these people will not have to pick up the pieces afterwards when the country is in ruins and obviously live and co-exist beside their neighbor Russia in the future.

It's very fine and dandy standing for what you think are lofty principals, when it's not your country being reduced to rubble. I think anyone who has any way of influencing either party in this, should not be encouraging more armed conflict as a solution. I think it's irresponsible to expect Ukraine to fight on and completely disregard what could be very dire consequences.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793530#Comment_118793530

Not to mention:

• Giving a shot in the arm to NATO
• Uniting the EU - after decades of attempting to undermine it
• Destroying the credibility of many of this stooges and apologists in the West
• Turning Russian speakers in Ukraine against Russia (considering they are the ones who have endured most of the suffering)
• Huge losses to the Russian economy - many of which will not be reversible
• Further increasing Russia's subservience to China
• and on and on and on.......

If all he get from that is Crimea, the Donbas (areas that he has controlled for the past 8 years) and Ukraine not pledging to join NATO while getting guarantees of no further attacks (undersigned by the likes of NATO) then this has been an unmitigated disaster for him. A monumental strategic error.

Podge_irl

It's very fine and dandy standing for what you think are lofty principals, when it's not your country being reduced to rubble.

Indeed. So maybe listen to the Ukrainians when they have been very clear the levels they will go to to resist Putin. The options are let them fight with poor weaponry, or continue supplying them the means the effectively defend themselves. There is an obvious answer.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793465#Comment_118793465

Forgot clean about Dagestan - probably due to a wish they would disappear more than anything.

Yes while Chechnya is largely under control so long as Kadyrov is ruler of the roost, Dagestanis are not. That said, Moscow would happily bomb them into oblivion ala Grozny if given the chance.

liamtech

https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

Above seems to point to FT as a source for possible terms of a peace treaty - Worth a read - Neutrality seemingly on the cards

No mention of the EU - which is interesting to me.

Security guarantee's mentioned as a serious consideration - and it is predictably a stumbling block

Like i said in my post a while ago - NATO is obvious but unacceptable perhaps to Russia

Anyway, this is about an hour old so

10000maniacs

Some seriously retarded Russian politician is urging Putin to nuke America’s Defence Department facilities in Nevada with a ballistic missile.

Putin is probably weighing up his advice. LOL.

Russian politician tells Putin to ‘fire warning missile’ at US base (msn.com)

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794149#Comment_118794149

Ah, I wouldn't worry too much what that lad says, sounds like a Russian Mihailo Walaski

The member of parliament also said that these missile launches could be beneficial to Russia, as they may hit the labs that ‘develop COVID-19.’

10000maniacs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794206#Comment_118794206

Not too far from the ramblings last week from Putin himself.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794149#Comment_118794149

The Russian "political" system does not exactly incentive the best and brightest.

Brussels Sprout

Putin was on Russian TV just now having a swipe at the oligarchs

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504116136966828043

I don’t judge those with villas in Miami or the French Riviera. Or who can’t get by without oysters or foie gras or so-called ‘gender freedoms.’ The problem is they mentally exist there, and not here, with our people, with Russia. They think this places them in a higher caste.

This is an interesting development. I wonder does this imply that he is actually worried about oligarchs or that he is trying to make scapegoats of the oligarchs (my bet would be on the latter). Those oligarchs don't know where to run to. They're getting hounded out of all of the western countries - their yachts are being seized and now it looks like even Mother Russia may not be a safe space for them.

odyssey06

@Brussels Sprout Putin needs a scapegoat... he can't let the blame fall on him when Russians realise how many of their soldiers aren't coming back - he was stabbed in the back by the oligarchs, corrupt generals, Russia Today journalists resigning etc etc

At this stage, the army leadership should take him out before he gets to them first.

AbusesToilets

The concept of Ukrainian neutrality is rather empty to begin with. They're going to buy military equipment from NATO countries and going to train with NATO countries. In addition, they will be forever antagonistic towards Russia, and likely to maintain a heightened military presence along the border.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794501#Comment_118794501

That's pretty much the situation Finland is in, although they purchase some equipment from Russia, their main systems are NATO.

"Neutral" here means not part of a military alliance bloc.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794371#Comment_118794371

Most certainly - but its an interesting situation.

Putin could point to Generals, the FSB, analysts, Officer Corps, etc etc - endless list

All of the above - (assuming they can co-ordinate) - can simply point back at him - if they can garner enough support from the Duma, and various other domestic actors - it could work

(i will immediately begin burning wax effigies of Vlad the ImPutinator)

Of course, no idea what comes next. Putin may leave but Putinism may be around a while longer

Podge_irl

A Ukraine with a fully functional military that has its "neutrality"/security guaranteed by NATO is functionally little different from being in NATO in the first place. Considering NATO was a) never going to invade Russia and b) is already bordering Russia, they will have ended up in a de facto worse situation than beforehand were that to come to pass. I struggle to see that as a realistic endpoint for this reason.

Dohnjoe

This is what Zelensky played for US congress this morning during his address. Warning, is graphic.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504133109024968709