Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

liamtech

In terms of the Russian Claims re the Donbass - The ICJ has spoken on this now - so those few claiming that any part of this war was justified:

The UN’s international court of justice (ICJ) in The Hague has ordered Russia to stop its invasion, saying it had not seen any evidence to support the Kremlin’s justification for the war, that Ukraine was committing genocide against Russian-speakers in the east of the country, Julian Borger writes.

The court ruled by 13 votes to two for a provisional order that “the Russian Federation shall immediately suspend military operations that it commenced on 24 February 2022 in the territory of Ukraine”. Only the Russian and Chinese judges on the court voted against the order.

The order was in response to a Ukrainian appeal to the court on 26 February, asking for a urgent ruling on Russian unsupported claims that Ukrainian forces were committing genocide in Russian-backed enclaves in Luhansk and Donetsk, regions in eastern Ukraine, as a justification for the attack.

Russia did not attend an initial hearing on the case, nor did its lawyers turn up to hear today’s ruling. Instead they sent a letter to the court claiming the ICJ did not have jurisdiction over the case. The court’s president, Joan Donoghue, rejected Russia’s argument, pointing out the frequent occasions that Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials had claimed the alleged genocide was the reason for the attack.

The ruling is unlikely to influence Putin’s choices, but it does provide an authoritative refutation of his pretext for starting the war.

This is clear now. It was obviously a pretext for war, but there is no real truth to it at all.

Source from

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/16/ukraine-russia-war-latest-zelenskiy-says-peace-talks-are-more-realistic-three-eu-leaders-vow-support-on-kyiv-visit-live?page=with:block-623207c38f081efd3276cff8#block-623207c38f081efd3276cff8

breezy1985

The Russian insistence on an official status for the Russian language in Ukraine is making me think that Ukraine or at least the Crimea and Donbass regions are in for a future of parades and flags and language and police commissions if any deal is agreed.

A Ukrainian father trying to flee to safety is captured by Ukrainian border guards at the Polish border, his wife was driving.

Apparently there is a growing people-smuggling industry. $500 to get out of the warzone.

It's not clear what the punishment for attempting to flee to safety is. Hopefully he fares better than Denis Kireev.

liamtech

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1504142532279685126?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1504142532279685126%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fdiscussion%2F2058195983%2Frussia-threadbanned-users-in-op%2Fp964

Jack Detsch of Foreign Policy is tweeting the latest on US support for the Ukrainians.

I have seen several such tweets from others RE whether the drones are armed? Nothing concrete on this, but improvised arming of drones is already taking place in Ukraine so - certain to continue, and perhaps with the US being able to advise on improving methods RE this

Certainly the Ukrainian president speech to the US Congress has had an effect - The US will not intervene militarily but they are throwing all other support behind Kyiv

Hoping to get more concrete info RE the types of drones

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794358#Comment_118794358

Another quote from that speech:

https://twitter.com/ElenaChernenko/status/1504112388450177030

"Self-purification of society". That sounds......ominous.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794706#Comment_118794706

Shades of proper fascism there alright - disgusting stuff

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-troops-bomb-mariupol-theatre-1200-civilians-inside/

This new story was mentioned a moment ago on CNN - only vague info beginning to drip out - Seemingly the theater was being used to house civilians - certainly watch this space. and OF COURSE, expect the usual denials from Von Ribbentrop Lavrov

• Russian military deny bombing theater
• Russian Foreign minister states NAZIS in theater
• Bombing of Theater is Fake footage
• The Ukraine bombed its own theater

Russian credibility will nosedive further day by day - Its pegged to the Ruble so

Detritus70

https://youtu.be/-MgZQOkP1yM

Apologies if this has been posted before, we must also assume that Putin is not given the best intel from his own people. Along the lines of nobody daring to disturb Stalin as he lay dying in his room.

I love the sentiment that one day they will come in with guns and escort Putin out, rather than give him news he may not want to hear. This gives me a tiny glimmer of hope.

https://youtu.be/-MgZQOkP1yM

StringerBell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794599#Comment_118794599

Incredibly powerful.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794358#Comment_118794358

Many of them can go to Israel. The ones who can't could probably cut a deal with non-aligned third world countries.

myfreespirit

myfreespirit

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794894#Comment_118794894

Bizarre. Why are you accusing that poster of spreading Russian disinformation?

myfreespirit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794904#Comment_118794904

APOLOGIES APOLOGIES APOLOGIES.

I quoted the wrong post.

My error.

Attempting to correct it, it appears not to be possible on Boards.ie.

My anger was directed at another post entirely.

Heraclius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794914#Comment_118794914

No need to apologise to me! I was just really confused when I read your comment. I was worried I had Ukraine and Russia confused this whole time:)

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794595#Comment_118794595

Yeah I can't see Russia accepting a deal on those lines unless it's so desperate for an offramp it'll take any deal that doesn't literally involve Ukraine joining NATO. I still think some blue skies thinking is required to come up with a mechanism for guaranteeing Ukranian security that is satisfactory for both sides.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794914#Comment_118794914

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794920#Comment_118794920

'Friendly fire' incident! I ended up apologizing a few days ago - there are so many posters and posts, its bound to happen - @myfreespirit i got a notification myself there but the post is gone so - not to worry -

Im glued to some Battle maps i found online - taking with a pinch of salt but they are detailed - also seem to mirror some of the reports coming out on main stream media - If mods prefer i not post these - absolutely - fully understand - below are some maps from the various areas

To suggest Mariupol is in trouble is an understatement - considering the Russians bombed a theater there - its dire - (arm chair general liamo) would suggest that the Russians are trying to split the Citys defense in two - also notice the shelling of the humanitarian corridor out of the city? Ghastly

On the other hand

Above suggests Russians confined to roads in many places - Logistics must be hellish, and they are IDEAL TARGETS for irregular warfare.

There are plenty more maps popping up around the net - the above are sourced from Ukraine press releases so - usual caveats but it does MIRROR the British MOD tweet suggesting the Russians are struggling to launch sustained offensives - CORRECTION - Maps modded by independent source - Source is tweeting footage of the various engagements (some gruesome stuff so perhaps avoid - im using just for their daily updates, as an additional source to mainstream Sky News Daily updates)

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of DPR and LPR (taken with grain of salt)

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-20-summary/

Nordner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118792818#Comment_118792818

100% agree. It is the least The West can do for Ukraine after all this. That is why The US ought to be at the negotiating table as well, especially seeing as they have been arming, funding and training their military for years at this stage.

For a lasting peace The US will have to act as guarantor. Ukraine then becomes a neutral buffer state (albeit under Western protection from Russia) that can benefit by trading with both Russia and The West going forward.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118795261#Comment_118795261

For a lasting peace The US will have to act as guarantor. Ukraine then becomes a neutral buffer state 

Hard to see the Russians accepting this though, unless they're getting absolutely slaughtered on the battlefield. From their POV it would be little different from Ukraine actually joining NATO. Finiding a mechanism to guarantee Ukraine's future security that is acceptable to both sides is looking close to an insoluble conundrum...

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118793179#Comment_118793179

Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger in conventional military terms. If it weren't for their nuclear deterrent Russia would be in deep trouble. Others would sniff the blood in the water.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118795395#Comment_118795395

They will have to nominate someone else then, any guarantee from Russia at this stage, would be valueless-

And it has to be someone who can actively deter them. Someone capable of actually enforcing the treaty, should the need arise - and someone nuclear armed - perhaps a bespoke coalition? I dont know, but it could involve AT LEAST SOME NATO members - hard to see it not including some.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118794358#Comment_118794358

Some real old fashioned Stalinist smearing from Putin here. Proper old fashioned bourgeois accusations with added homophobic insinuations.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118791044#Comment_118791044

Why would they try to occupy the whole country?

I never really bought into that theory. Or this idea that they would try for some sort of rapid blitzkrieg style takeover. That always seemed more like fantasy type stuff from the media tbh.

Patient siege style tactics, cutting off supply lines. Avoid getting dragged into any large scale insurgency etc. That's more the logical strategy for the Russian military doctrine.

Cut a deal with the Ukrainian leadership, and be very clear what will happen if anyone reneges on that deal.

Ukraine can't keep taking this level of suffering for much longer. Civilian + military deaths, destruction to infrastructure, economy etc.

People are making a very big assumption that Russia cannot keep this war going long term. What if they're wrong about that? Russia have an old fashioned ww2 era style economy. Cash poor, but resource rich. And if Putin has planned for this war and sanctions, then it may be a very dangerous gamble to assume they will run out of steam.

Hopefully for everyone's sake, peace starts to become the more appealing option on both sides.

Podge_irl

Cut a deal with the Ukrainian leadership, and be very clear what will happen if anyone reneges on that deal.

They'll come back and lose another 10% of their armoured force in 3 weeks?

Russia have clearly failed if their goal was to avoid "large scale insurgency". History would tend to suggest that wanton destruction does not in fact make it more likely for an enemy to surrender. There is a reason Petersburg and Volgograd (Stalingrad) didn't fall during WW2 and the Russians would be minded to think on it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118795533#Comment_118795533

What's their alternative to occupying the whole country? Whatever peace they impose has to be workable and right now, the only workable peace appears to be a full withdrawal to the borders from February 2022, at best. Obviously we've no insight into whatever the Russian tactics are but whatever solution they intend for Ukraine has to be one the locals can support.

Russian can probably keep firing artillery into parts of Ukraine for decades* but that's very different to winning a war and occupying the country, I suppose it could even devolve into an Israeli/Palestine type situation where one side can bomb the other with ease but can't really find a peace they can live with. Right now they've managed to even lose the support of the ethnically Russian Ukrainians.

There's no obvious exit strategy for Russia atm, especially if Kiev insist on the return of Crimea, imo.

riddles

The problem for Russia is the war has thrashed their major competitive advantage in gas and oil so they can’t replenish what’s being lost. So they can’t evolve now!

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118795533#Comment_118795533

But they did actually try a blitzkrieg. They seized airports near Kyiv and tried to rush in and topple the government. The airports were meant to be held such that a large force could be landed, before Ukraine knew what had hit them. That is what they tried, and it failed, utterly.

Its the siege/conventional advance that they are ill prepared for. That wasn't their plan.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118795763#Comment_118795763

Brexit is not analogous to an invasion so its a fairly stupid comparison. Also its not "calling him names" its accurately representing what he is doing.

Accepting neutrality is equally a completely amorphous concept - accepting neutrality while maintaining a military and being under the protection of NATO would, I am sure, be something Ukraine could live with. What Russia want is it to become neutral and unarmed so they can waltz in later, which is obviously a completely unacceptable state.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118795697#Comment_118795697

You'd be surprised what sort of deal you'd be prepared settle for, when your cities are under siege and people are starting to go hungry. It won't be Israel Palestine, if Russia cut off supply lines - especially with air power. Their air force has barely even been used thus far, and it it arguably their strongest asset. (not that I'm hoping it's necessary to used it of course)

It's very easy for people to talk tough, like Podge above, when it's not your city being pummeled with artillery. It's not thousands of your citizens lying dead, or millions of them refugees.

There is of course a cost to Russia, but it's not even close to comparable to Ukraine's plight right now. The humanitarian situation will be pretty dire in those cities if this goes on much longer.

fryup

brave woman - still can't believe she was only fined, thought she would have got ten years hard labour😶

Podge_irl

It's very easy for people to talk tough, like Podge above, when it's not your city being pummeled with artillery. It's not thousands of your citizens lying dead, or millions of them refugees.

You have a really, really weird concept of "talking tough". I apologise if my references to a couple of literally thousands of examples of wanton destruction by invading forces not actually working has somehow troubled you.

Thankfully, however, I have eyes and ears and can actually listen to and read what actual Ukrainians on the ground are saying. I would support them in whatever action they choose, but it doesn't strike me as all that likely that they actually want to become stooges for Russia. Such is the reality we must accept.