Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118829698#Comment_118829698

"Neither the US nor Ukraine were willing to countenance any compromise with Putin as regards Crimea", they didn't compromise, they just let him take it ffs! What would a "compromise" over Crimea have looked like? Should they have given him Mariupol in 2014 too, just to make sure Putin didn't feel shortchanged?

The desperation to excuse Russia's actions here is beyond pathetic.

ilkhanid

If anything useful comes out of this horror, it will be the exposure of Russia as a paper bear, hardly deserving of Great Power status. Never mind the USA and China,it now seems than even other powers could at the very least stand up to them..if not kick their ass. Russia is lucky that it possesses a large arsenal of nuclear weapons. If it didn't...its humiliation in this debacle would be a signal the way that blood in the water is to sharks.

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831378#Comment_118831378

This war seems similar to the Finnish Winter war of 1939-40. The Russians making many mistakes and the defenders taking full advantage of it. The poor performance of the red army led Hitler and others to believe that Russia would collapse under attack.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118828437#Comment_118828437

After a prior history of total control under the Communist's, they morphed into a capitalist system, but even after this happened, the total state control remained. And a previously brainwashed people were easy to control...they knew nothing else. Add in the total annihilation of any state that sought independence IE: Chechnya, which served as a warning for any other independents, and you can see how it's done. Thousand's of Russian Citizens jailed under draconian laws, 15 years jail for protesting / showing "fake" news. etc. Yes, the newer and younger generation of Russians, who never experienced communism under the USR are pretty well aware of what's going on, but they live in what is effectively a police state. Putins excuse of starting a war because of NATO encroachment, is complete and utter rubbish...if there were no NATO country's within a thousand miles of Russia, he would find some other excuse..he badly needs to divert attention from what's happening within Russia... 20 years of robbing the Country blind, is having an effect on ordinary Russians...something really sick in a society where for every 1000 Birth's, there is 500 abortions. And at some point in time, this will manifest itself in other ways. Having a democratic successful Ukraine as next door neighbor, was the last thing he needed.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831340#Comment_118831340

Yeah AFAIK Ukraine have shown absolutely no interest in taking Crimea back since its illegal annexation. So what more could Ukraine and the international community give him on that front? Is Nordner seriously suggestion Putin cares about 'official recognition' of his thefts of other countries' territory?

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831805#Comment_118831805

....and they probably would have collapsed in short order had not the debacle of the Winter War so rudely exposed the shortcomings of the Soviet Army. As it was, even Stalin had to acknowledge that the army was not fit for purpose (not that he'd ever have admitted that it was his fault). Incompetents and seatwarmers were dismissed and weeded out-not all of them, though- and competent and talented officers like Zhukov and Timoshenko were given commands. A process of reconstruction and reform was initiated. Enough had not been done by June 1941 but it was enough to save the Soviets.

odyssey06

Russian denazification update from Twitter via BBC

unknown people left a pig's head outside Ekho Moskvy editor Alexei Venediktov's apartment and put a Ukrainian crest sticker on his door with "Judensau" – Jewish pig" – written on it

The editor of Russia's last independent radio station Ekho Moskvy, which was taken off air by the Russian authorities days into the war, says he will ask police to investigate how a pig's head came to be dumped outside his apartment and an anti-Semitic slogan glued onto the front door.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=623cdb895fbc655faa01ecb0%26Pig%27s%20head%20left%20at%20Moscow%20radio%20editor%27s%20door%262022-03-24T21%3A39%3A48.188Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:f990e341-24c1-4ed3-8a78-6a98c40f793b&pinned_post_asset_id=623cdb895fbc655faa01ecb0&pinned_post_type=share

saabsaab

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831890#Comment_118831890

True. In fact for several weeks their armies did collapse until winter and materiel from the west came to the rescue.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118832115#Comment_118832115

The chaotic administration of the war on the German side and angry debates between generals on which objectives would be given priority was a big help to the Soviets too. Stalin finally learned not to interfere and give his generals their head. Hitler never did.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831805#Comment_118831805

Always worth remembering that Finland however did lose that war, giving up the Karelian isthmus and their second city (Viipuri) in the process.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831140#Comment_118831140

So you refuse to address the valid points that you have no evidence to support your presumptions of what Putin would have done in your hypothetical appeasement scenarios.

Nordner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831340#Comment_118831340

Nobody is excusing their actions. All I am saying is that this war was always going to be the likely outcome of US and NATO assistance for Ukraine just as happened in Georgia in 2008. Another former soviet state with significant ethnic Russian populations and disputed territory.

To say otherwise is disingenuous and you know it.

There could have been a peace deal with Ukraine protected from Russian intervention as part of it.

But, no, it was all or nothing for NATO same as its all or nothing for Putin.

Maybe things will work out well in the end for Ukraine, who knows? Not worked out very well for Putin so far that's for sure.

Podge_irl

There could have been a peace deal with Ukraine protected from Russian intervention as part of it.

No there couldn't.

That statement has precisely as much backing and evidence as yours.

Pete_Cavan

There is a peace deal with Ukraine protected from Russian intervention (Minsk Agreement) but Russia completely ignored it and apparently everyone else is too so as not to escalate tensions with Russia (that doesn't stop people claiming everyone else has provoked Russia). Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons as part of that deal. They are entitled to have a conventional military for national defence. Having a military is not an aggressive act or justification for an invasion.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118832901#Comment_118832901

So Ukraine and Georgia both independent sovereign states arent allowed make their own decisions due to Russia's fefe's?

I also adore the way you keep contradicting yourself, you say Ukraine could have gotten a peace deal avoiding Russian interventions but then literally the next sentence you say it was all or nothing for Putin. You cant have things both ways no matter how much russian propaganda you consume.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118832901#Comment_118832901

How can you know Russia would have upheld such a deal in good faith?

Nordner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118833279#Comment_118833279

Adore away all you want. I meant, in the absence of any deal, it was an all or nothing scenario for Putin.

As in all out war.

He could never hold the entire country but he will probably take Donbas and land bridge to Crimea, including, the now flattened, Mariupol.

There is no doubt he has overplayed his hand here and shown himself, once again, to be a brutal and callous tyrant.

What you and your mates refuse to countenance is any possibility that this invasion was entirely predictable and, most probably, part of US and NATO plans to undermine The Russians, expose their barbarity and make fools of them on the world stage.

Brussels Sprout

There's no surer sign that this war is heading toward a long draw out slog than that hardly any of the posts in this thread are about the latest news from Ukraine anymore.

Even looking at the BBC updates page there isn't a whole lot of news about that's happening on the ground - more about the high level politics and meetings.

Unfortunately one piece of news that is emerging is that is that 300 people may have died in the ruins of that theatre that was hit by the missile in Mariupol 9 days ago. A lot of them seem to have been children too.

Nordner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118833375#Comment_118833375

They would have had to if there was the promise of a direct NATO response to any bullshit.

No NATO membership for Ukraine, so no NATO missiles or troops (so long as The Russians kept their side of the bargain).

Possibility of E.U membership for Ukraine, albeit as a neutral country.

Surely that would not be beyond the realms of possibility? Would certainly have avoided all the misery, destruction and death we are witnessing now, not to mention threat of WW3.

Half the reason Russia has been so emboldened over the last decade or more is because The West failed to take a harder line with them on previous occasions. Their antics could have and should have been nipped in the bud much sooner but too many **** were making too much money doing energy and property deals with them and laundering their money, especially through The City of London and The Premier League.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118833386#Comment_118833386

And you still refuse to accept that Ukraine making its own decisions is what Russia has a problem with. All you do by claiming this is some grand conspiracy by the US and NATO is remove any agency of the Ukrainian people who have shown time and again they want to be closer to the EU and NATO than Russia.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118833447#Comment_118833447

What triggered the ousting of Putins puppet Yanukovych in 2014 was when Putin ordered him not to sign the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement so the idea that Putin who has become even more nationalist and hard line since then would now allow Ukraine to enter the EU under any circumstances is laughable. Also the EU will never allow terms and limits to be dictated by a 3rd party on the entrance of a new member.

Podge_irl

A) Ukraine was nowhere near joining NATO, so why now?

B) The idea that Russia would agree to a treaty that envisioned direct NATO intervention if they took military action against Ukraine is fantasy.

Your suggestions that X, Y or Z would have removed the "need" for Russia to invade are based on nothing whatsoever. Russia has acted in such a manner as to be completely untrustworthy and to suggest that this was inevitable. The only way this could have been avoided is probably Putin being assassinated years ago. The West's interventions have just meant that Russia's invasion hasn't worked, they didn't cause it.

myfreespirit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118833386#Comment_118833386

More utter nonsense, so much so, that it reads like Russian propaganda...

Do you have any evidence (real, hard attributable facts) that support the assertion that this war is part of NATO plans to "undermine the Russians".

The post is all of a piece with other posts from you, positing similar opinions.

Opinions, not facts.

Of course you are fully entitled to hold those opinions, even if they appear baseless, and you can't back them up with any evidence or facts.

Shao Kahn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118831378#Comment_118831378

If anything comes out of this, it will likely be a more rapid decline of western power.

People don't seem to realize how incredibly fragile the American economy and Dollar is right now, or how dependent the west is on other parts of the world. Countries like China and India are backing the Russians here, and it's not by mistake either. They know what way the tide is flowing!

There is going to be fuel, power and food shortages all over Europe and the US... even Macron has admitted this.

Why do you think Putin has just brazenly demanded Rubles for their Gas? lol He knows the west is on the edge of the cliff with these sanctions... and they have no other tools in their arsenal with which to effect the outcome. They are shooting blanks now!

We are witnessing the beginning of the end here. Western power is built on a foundation of sand, it's completely hollow at it's core. Many experts have warned about this for years, but we've continued to outsource every essential industry and resource... now this war and these sanctions are going to expose our soft underbelly, and there is no going back once that balance shifts.

The media will keep feeding all of you guys a pack of lies, and you guys will keep swallowing it. But reality will bite hard...

Quin_Dub

NATO Membership for Ukraine is another Putin Canard of sorts.

Yes it was a concern for him , but guarantees about not joining NATO would not have satisfied him in the slightest.

What he could not allow was Democracy on his door-step in a country that has so much shared history and commonality with Russia. The Russian people would have looking over at friends and relatives living in Ukraine wondering why they couldn't have some of that.

An open, democratic Ukraine is an absolute threat to his hold on Russia and he simply will not allow that to exist. So the idea that some negotiated NATO neutrality was enough for him is just a nonsense.

Does anyone honestly think that Putin would have been happy to see a democratic Ukraine working towards EU membership with all of the anti-corruption and judicial changes that would have entailed?

Why would he allow such a direct and obvious comparison to the Oligarchy that is Putins Russia to exist?

myfreespirit

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118833797#Comment_118833797

All the "West", as you put it, needs to do, is to continue to squeeze the Russian economy until the pips squeak.

Force devaluation of the Russian Rouble until basic foodstuffs become bitingly expensive for the Russian population. Sanctions take quite some time to work, but they will impoverish Russia.

Putin needs petro dollars and euros for gas and oil, it is significant that there is NO disruption to gas supplies to Europe. A strategic shift by Europe away from Russian raw materials will benefit Europe and harm Russia.

liamtech

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118832901#Comment_118832901

Im going to leave it now @Nordner . I did try and discuss this with you, but i do feel that you tend to dodge certain points which are raised. I was off all day yesterday but on reading back now, it seems your central argument is that

• America/NATO/The-West is partially to blame for this War

I kinda feel that this is the hill on which you have decided to die. Iv seen several posters have made very practical attempts to demonstrate the invalidity of this position, but its to no avail. I did at least argue that your view is a result of contamination by poor USFP during the post 9/11 period. The US behaved badly circa 2001-2008 (the Bush Years), and this (imho) leads you to unfairly view them at present, and in relation to Ukraine/Russia.

il continue to debate as always but, i doubt the positions will change so.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118833797#Comment_118833797

The US economy is the world's largest (GDP around 50% higher than the next closest, China), US unemployment claims are the lowest in half a century, and there are no issues with the US dollar

Russia on the flipside has a smaller economy than Italy's, the major rating agencies no longer going to rate it, should enter default soon, their currency has lost around 40%, inflation is running at around 10%, could be 20% by the end of the year. They are heavily reliant on exports like oil/gas.

Putin has "ordered" Gazprom to only accept roubles (it's an attempt to prop up the rouble) but will probably backfire as the current contracts with European countries stipulate EUR/USD payments. Doesn't look like any are going to pay in rouble. On top of that most of these countries will be dramatically reducing their reliance on oil/gas over the next year to 2 years anyway, if Putin demands roubles, it will only speed that up

Food and natural resource and general prices are going to increase for us, there's definitely going to be some pain from this, certain developing countries could experience food crises. However, keep in mind, the situation isn't static. Oil/gas producers can start to produce more to cover the shortfall (e.g. Canada just announced yesterday it is increasing production by 5%, the US will start supplying Europe with more LNG), wheat and fertilizer producers will also likely increase production to attempt to cover shortages from Russia/Ukraine.

"The media will keep feeding all of you guys a pack of lies" - every conspiracy theorist, financial doomsday merchant, etc.

Larbre34

A decline of Western Power? Are you on drugs?

All Putin has done is rouse a sleeping giant. None of the economic growth and development in Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Brazil etc is sustainable without the investment and the technology and the strategic know-how of the West. Russian is a G20 economy of 150 million people and the stroke of a pen in the west shut it down overnight. Banks, Management Consultants, Software, Hardware, Componentry, Designers, Industrial Engineering, Consumer goods, Fast food and fast fashion - all Western owned and licenced.

I've read two or three analysis pieces in the likes of Forbes and Bloomberg during this crisis that China are scared stone shytless at the prospect of the same thing happening to them if they don't remain neutral and that's why they haven't sent Putin military supplies or troops that he is looking for.

It's how India now finds itself under so much pressure geopolitically.

India: "But we have a huge weapons deal with the Russians and we need to keep a strong relationship!"

The West: "We've just ended Russia's ability to ever deliver on that at the stroke of a pen, so you'd better wake up and smell the coffee boys".

Not to mention that Russian armaments are being shown up as absolutely crap by superior Western technology.

Yes, there is going to be some energy hardship in Europe, but that reset was needed, we have the resources to aggressively replace and innovate. We will work together with the US and Canada, Australia and New Zealand, Japan and Korea as well as other hugely resourced allies like Malaysia, Mexico, Phillipines, to restore the supremacy of the West in absolute terms and never again make ourselves a hostage to fortune of dodgy corrupt powers like Russia and China.

Time for the likes of India and Pakistan and South Africa and the UAE and Brazil and Azerbaijan to choose. Align with the West, strongly and unambiguously, or suffer lost decades of inertia.

Remember that gas Putin wanted paying for in Rubles? You left out the bit where he was told on Wednesday that he'd get his payments in the contracted Euros or Dollars and be grateful for it. Or in other words, 'f**k off'

fly_agaric

Forgetting NATO and US for just a minute (if possible for those such Nordner), a major factor in this seems to me to be a struggle over Ukraine's potential EU accession, going back to Maidan and Russian aggression that really ramped up after that.

Russia under Putin seems to have lost, to the EU or the West, argument in Ukraine as regards what kind of future people want and he/regime cannot accept that. This is irrespective of Ukraine rejecting NATO membership, or any military alliances with the US/others. That was not enough I think. If it was, why would you continually escalate the aggression towards Ukraine since 2014 (ending up, finally, in this war) which has actually had the extremely predictible effect of Ukraine seeking more aid off oustide military allies for protection from Russia/Putin. Putin wants the country and its people turned back away from the EU/West and towards him & to Russia and run along the lines he is more comfortable with + can control.

I know extreme left in this country and I suppose elsewhere around Europe despise the EU. However the EU can hardly be painted as a militarist & aggressive organisation threatening Russia with attack, can it? Ukraine growing closer to it could undermine Putin's rule in Russia by providing a more succcessful counter-example in another much larger and more important country (than likes of Baltic states) that is a neighbour of and very linked with Russia, but it does not militarily threaten Russia.

Ironically way Russia has acted now in Ukraine could now, finally, force the EU to develop a stronger role in that area (defence & protection of the members from their neighbouring external threats like Russia).