Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

McGiver

Interesting analysis of "Russian volunteer battalions":

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-volunteer-units-and-battalions

Red Army running out of manpower (in line with causalty reports) but Putin is afraid of mobilization which would probably cause riots and overthrow him so he's paying €3k per month for mercenaries recruited all over Eurasia.

This recruitment effort will likely be expensive if it comes close to meeting its targets. It appears that the Russian Ministry of Defense will pay the volunteers’ salaries while the “federal subjects” will pay their enlistment bonuses. Salaries generally start at roughly $3,000 per month per soldier or about $1.2 million per month per 400-man unit. Enlistment bonuses offered by at least some units appear to be roughly a month’s salary. If the effort generates 85 battalions each of 400 men it would bring an additional 34,000 volunteers into the fight at the cost of about $102 million per month in salary alone. Considering that the 30 days of training the volunteers will receive before entering combat will not produce combat-ready soldiers, that price is very high. The volunteers will receive veteran status and benefits if they serve in Ukraine, moreover, in addition to their salaries and bonuses, a commitment that will add to the Russian Federation budget for decades.

pixelburp

So remember how some would claim Russia hadn't designs on the rest of Ukraine, only those poor unfortunates Russians of Donbas and Luhansk?

Yeah. About that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/20/russia-may-seek-to-occupy-more-territory-in-ukraine-says-foreign-minister

Despite that evidence, the Kremlin has maintained that it launched its attack to protect its proxy governments in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

“Now the geography is different,” Lavrov said, in a change of rhetoric from the Russian government. “It’s not just Donetsk and Luhansk, it’s Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and a number of other territories. And this is an ongoing process, consistent and insistent

This was always an invasion. This will not stop at those breakaway regions; Russia must be beaten back to the border. The bullshít some would have had us believe; the nonsense peddled trying to reframe the conquest as anything but the obvious. oh, Kyiv was just a "distraction" tactic, I remember that one. Or that for the sake of "peace" Russia should be given what they wanted; they'd go home them.

This won't stop, Russia now says this, plainly, publicly.

bobowen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119365891#Comment_119365891

Pretty sure this is in direct response to the commitment by the US to supply the Ukrainians with missiles with a range of 300 km for the obviously successful Himars system. The Americans previously refused to supply missiles with more than a 50km range so as not to bring us closer to WW3. This is an obvious escalation tactic in response to the slow but successful grinding war of attrition that the Russians are using to deplete the Ukrainian army of its numbers and morale in the Donbass.

It is a chess move response to an ill thought out dangerous US chess move that gives Russia the PR ammunition they needed to sell the eventual annexation of both Odessa and Kharkiv to their citizens as a defensive necessity.

There is genuine fear on many of the ear to the ground Russian telegram channels about the much talked about Kherson offensive and the Himars effectiveness in taking out of the bridges and dams around the area that, once destroyed, will allow the Ukrainians to start their offensive since the Russians will find it hard to reinforce their defences. First time I've seen that anxiousness on these channels since the start of the war. Others think its been overhyped and its merely Zelenskys last roll of the dice to maintain western armament support. He needs a big win.

The Donbass is lost to Ukraine at this stage but the Kherson offensive if it happens will be pivotal to reversing it.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119370351#Comment_119370351

Nonsense.

Russia tried to seize Kyiv and were repulsed. But the public need to be sold on capturing Odessa? In the fantasy world of Russian propaganda why do they need to be sold anything?

Or did they already see through the last set of sales lies about nato nazis budapest and demilitarisation?

The himars are hitting legit russian military targets. Unlike russias indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets, medical facilities and refuges. At every step it is Russia who has escalated.

If Russian propaganda is squealing about it you know the US made the right call on it.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119371004#Comment_119371004

Its only in a fantasy world that Russia has the ability to get near capturing Odessa or Kharkiv anyway.

beggars_bush

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62252704

looting grain and now steel.

Next it will be Ukraine's gas and oil reserves

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119371173#Comment_119371173

That's what they are there for. That has always been the reason. Ukraine to be in Russia's orbit and cannot allowed to be a sovereign state that determines its own future, and looks West. Everything else was just pretext, lies or moves in the long game. You can see they never game a damn about the people in Donbas who identified as Russia, they use the fighters as cannon fodder or have no qualms about killing the citizens as collateral damage with indiscriminate attacks.

bobowen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119371190#Comment_119371190

Surely it doesn't make sense for the Russians to waste missiles on targets like schools that are purportedly empty. I have seen countless clips of gym halls loaded with weapons and Ukrainian soldiers inhabiting them. Filmed by themselves no less. You can find them yourselves if you look beyond the dying 20th century filtered propaganda sources that you all seem to mistake for primary sources.

There is proof that they have been doing this for years however, from a Unicef report on the purposely ignored Donbass war of the previous 8 years. There's the obligatory "the russians are doing it too but" angle, it being a Unicef report, but the fact is its how the Ukrainians wage war. They inhabit hospitals and schools as a rule.

Do you deny still that the Ukrainians do this?

Are Unicef liars under the spell of Putin?

https://gdc.unicef.org/resource/attacks-schools-military-use-schools-during-armed-conflict-eastern-ukraine#:~:text=Ukraine's%20Ministry%20of%20Education%20and,the%20UN%20Safe%20Schools%20Declaration.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119374775#Comment_119374775

How do you explain the city of Vinnytsia being hit by Russian cruise missiles? A city to the west of Kiev, hundreds of miles from the front.....it couldn't possibly have been a legitimate military target or currently contributing anything to Ukraine's war effort in the south or east.

That was a clear action of a terrorist state, an ISIS style attack.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119374775#Comment_119374775

You can dress it up as "obligatory" Russians are doing it too "angle". So the Russians are doing it too? But it is only how the Ukrainians wage war? You can write this but when someone pauses to read it the contradiction in it is obvious.

If military forces have been using schools, that makes those schools targets. It does not give carte blanche to indiscriminate attacks without foundation.

Russia using school in occupied town as a base - photo #22

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2022/06/photos-more-than-100-days-of-war-in-ukraine/661217/

More evidence of Russian war crimes targeting civilian refuges. They didn't even claim if was used by Ukraine military but that the Ukrainian military blew it up in a false flag!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariupol_theatre_airstrike

School hit. No evidence of its use for military purposes. Was this a wasted missile? Or maybe the Russians think it wasn't wasted if it killed some Ukranians, even if they were civilians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/08/russian-airstrike-ukraine-school

It doesn't make sense for Russians to waste cruise missiles? There was no military target here. Were the cruise missiles or did they serve their intended function, as Russia intended, to inflict civilian casualties and terror?

https://kyivindependent.com/national/russian-missiles-strike-kyiv-apartment-and-kindergarden-in-photos

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-russian-missiles-leave-wreckage-in-heart-of-ukrainian-city-far-from/#:~:text=He%20pointed%20out%20that%20Vinnytsia,south%20and%20east%20of%20Ukraine.

bobowen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119374892#Comment_119374892

My point exactly. Why would the Russians bomb such a western random target unless they had Intel that there was an important meeting of Ukrainian high commanders going on?

Was it not interesting that it was soon after this that Zelensky attempted his purge of the head of the SBU?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375008#Comment_119375008

Could be, or it could be that the attack was indiscriminate one from terrorist scumbags.

bobowen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119374893#Comment_119374893

The question stands. Do you deny that the Ukrainian army use schools as military bases in the current conflict?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375031#Comment_119375031

Look Kremlinite, the Russian invading army are going to get torched out of Ukraine and will end up retreating bringing as many of their dead stacked on clapped-out trucks as they can when they scuttle towards the border at endgame.

No one gives sh*t about the crap you're throwing up in the air. Russia is despised from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean and far beyond, and you should reconcile yourself to that. You're shouting into the void trying to make a feeble case for fascism. Until they atone as a people and as a state, the name of Russia is dirt everywhere that matters.

The war has turned and the Russian army is getting incinerated with missiles from the top shelf of Western armies armoury. Russia is reduced to whatever residual Soviet crap they can get their hands on.

The youth of Russia are paying the price with skulls split by snipers and unidentifiable charred remains for babushkas to weep over. This is the choice Russia has made with their violation of Ukraine.

We'll all remember your posts, and I for one won't forget to tag you when Victory Ukraine day arrives. It's coming sooner than you think. Don't hit the bottle when the day comes, it's bad for you. And you only need to look to Russia for the consequences of severe alcoholism.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375031#Comment_119375031

I have not denied it. But I deny the implication that only Ukrainian forces have done so.

I would also note you have not shown Ukranian use of the such sites in unevacuated towns or cities.

And I deny that this has affected Russias attacks on civilian targets. They have hit schools and residential taegets far from front lines.

Do you deny that Russia has deliberately and/or indiscriminately targeted civilian refuges and targets - as per the evidence cited above?

bobowen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375117#Comment_119375117

Racist and Delusional.

Classy.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375132#Comment_119375132

He denies everything. He's in thrall to fascism and is trying desparately to achieve some class of false moral equivalancy in the minds of whoever he can as his boys get incinerated by an army defending their nation.

He's a merchant of doubt, and a peddler falsehoods. He'll throw anything in the air in case he finds a thicko that will allow it to stick to some part of their brain.

amandstu

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375031#Comment_119375031

This is not a "conflict".It is an invasion by a large country on its smaller neighbour .

That country can use whatever methods it sees fit to defend itself.

The Russian army needs to stay home and protect its own citizens rather than allow itself to be the whipping boys of the anti democratic regime that the USSR has morphed into.

In fact the Russian army might have something to say to those so called political leaders when they are free to turn their attention to their own country.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375143#Comment_119375143

Not a racist word was typed. (Are Russians a race? Who knew?)

Your boys are getting toasted, and if they're lucky they'll be crawling back to the border vowing never to set foot on Ukrainian soil again.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375008#Comment_119375008

The regime claimed they attacked a building called "The House of Officers" in Vinnytsia, but it now turns out that was just a historical name from 100 years ago and these days it was a well known concert hall.

A photo of Russian precision bombing in the city (and have a look at how built up the surrounding area is) :

pixelburp

Thanks to people engaging with an ignored user pointedly trying to intellectualise state terrorism, one reads pearls like

My point exactly. Why would the Russians bomb such a western random target unless they had Intel that there was an important meeting of Ukrainian high commanders going on?

Why would a country bomb civilian targets? This is either wilful nativity or tedious contrarianism for its own sake. Mixed with victim blaming of course; the Ukrainians probably deserved it, they can't have just been innocent people. Disgusting.

Because, and again to reference the actual colleague in Ukraine I work withliving out West, permanently worried, it keeps Ukrainians afraid, and cowed. Grind down their moral. A Blitz, if you will. I refuse to believe any adult user can't comprehend why an army might indiscriminately attack random targets across the country as a means to antagonise and psychologically belittle.

Shameful that this thread has become hijacked by such a repugnant segue that tries to justify noted, historical strategies by Russia. Or any morally bankrupt armed force that refuses to minimise civilian casualties.

Shameful. And more fool us for engaging.

odyssey06

Russia hits Odessa port with missiles even though they just signed an agreement allowing it to be used for grain exports.

This is how the gangster fascist regime of Russia views agreements it signs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/23/russian-strike-odessa-port-ukraine-grain/

This tweet sums up Russian modus operandi

https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1550769682361339904?s=20&t=nOKMzCCNxmjZbtVOzLysyA

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119376544#Comment_119376544

Sink the Black Sea Fleet, and turn it into a NATO lake. They're trying to starve the developing world and freeze European pensioners this winter. F*ck 'em, all bets are off.

Zero breathing space for enablers and propagandists from here on out.

ilkhanid

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119375155#Comment_119375155

It's hard to know what they think they are. They're certainly an empire, but they seem to think they are a ''race'' or that they have some kind of special status as the premier slav people and that they have some unique 'Kultur' and a special mission to spread it.

bear1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119377010#Comment_119377010

I don't know why NATO aren't moving in on the black sea and simply mooring their ships off of the Romanian coast.

Lavrov today stating they won't stop until the Kiev government are out. Barbaric.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119374775#Comment_119374775

The "8 year war" in Donbas where for the last 7 years an average of 30 civilians died per year killed by any side (including the ever so humanitarian Russians & their ever so careful & well trained proxies) - 50% of whom were accidental kills by landmines - & where the Russians refused to allow the UN in - or try to bring anyone to the Hague or allow in any international media.

At what point does spouting Kremlin propaganda become a deliberate lie?

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119378610#Comment_119378610

They think they're "a civilization" - russkiy mir - "Russian World"...

What a civilization!

McGiver

Good to see that some realism has descended into the German government quarters

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-cem-ozdemir-agriculture-black-sea-grain-ukraine-war/

That's it. Always been.

McGiver

Also, Turkey negotiating something as the middleman for Ukraine shouldn't be trusted.

Turkey are imperialist "little Russia in the South", very similar to Russia. They will only try to gain leverage and regional power. They are no charity or partner to trust.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119386836#Comment_119386836

There needs to be consequences to Russia breaking agreements "Russia broke the ports agreement, US will now send 10 300km missile systems to Ukraine - in future, Russia should think of the consequences before giving & breaking its word"- etc

McGiver

Orbán should shut up and disappear. Absolute disgrace. Putin's mate and trojan horse in the EU.

https://www.rferl.org/a/orban-ukraine-war-us-russia-talks/31956804.html

Szijjarto, Hungarian Orbán mafia Foreign Minister was in Moscow last week, buying more gas and talking "peaceful solutions in Ukraine". Absolutely spineless traitors who should bé thrown out of the EU immediately.

https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-to-drop-energy-price-caps-high-consumption-clients/31953528.html

Just look at the picture! This is highly disturbing...

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119386887#Comment_119386887

Yes, that's the only thing that will ever work with this mafia state.

Now, the thugs are trying to blackmail us all with gas, as expected from the mafia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-works-resume-grain-exports-flags-russian-strikes-risk-2022-07-25/

The EU collectively needs to bridge this winter at all costs and starve them out. There's no way back. It has to happen.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119387058#Comment_119387058

The EU collectively needs to bridge this winter at all costs and starve them out.

Starve who out? The Russians? Last time I checked, they were net exporters of food, fertiliser, energy etc.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119386904#Comment_119386904

I don't understand how Hungary, of all countries, would have a leader this obsequious towards Russia. Hungary. Unless locals simply don't see these comments from Orbán mind you; this is a country where in the run-up to the recent General Election, the opposition parties got 5 minutes airtime - combined.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388098#Comment_119388098

Quelle surprise, the voters like when their own needs are put first. Hungary would be screwed without Russian oil & gas, so rather than throwing their economy into oblivion for a country they really arent that dependent on, they prioritise their own economy and peoples livelihoods instead. Who would have thought that would be popular 🤔

beggars_bush

Russia still have plenty of customers for gas, oil and other natural resources

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119386904#Comment_119386904

Lavrov looks like he might just eat the Hungarian FM in that photo his grin is so wide! Hungary have made a monkey out of the EU and all of us though, I cannot deny that.

They have slowed down and obstructed adoption of sanctions, tried to make delivery of weapons to Ukraine more difficult and its looking like they will keep their Russian gas flowing + smirk and cock a snook at the other countries scrambling to sort out energy supplies, all the while availing in full of advantages of their EU membership.

There's also the optics element of it, where Órban utterly humiliated the EU commission and the other 26 leaders, made them crawl and beg to him to get the previous oil sanctions through - e.g. throwing in special exemption from sanctions for Patriarch Kirill at the last minute as a favour to Putin!

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/02/patriarch-kirill-excluded-from-eu-sanctions-after-hungary-s-objection

Hopefully there'll be a showdown with them at some point. Don't see how it can carry on as it is. Unfortunately Polish govt. are (as far as I know...haven't read anything to contrary) still committed to acting as their prop and preventing any serious EU action against them. I do worry this may not change, even if they are unhappy with Órban's friendship with Russia.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388203#Comment_119388203

And historically Hungary has been bet into a corner and treated like a vassal state by both the Allies and the Soviet Union over the last 100 years. So yes a selfish attitude really does pay off. And running with the hare and hunting with the hound during world war 2. Hungary is not a country to be held up as an example of anything.

yagan

Hungary like Russia has a revanchist ambition towards areas in Romania.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389529#Comment_119389529

Hungary has a revanchist ambition towards areas in Ukraine too. Transcarpathia has many Hungarian speakers in parts

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388040#Comment_119388040

How long do you think that situation is going to continue, under the sanctions regime?

Russians are completely dependent on the West for their technological needs in most areas of production, and already long out of spares for most of their (mostly German) machine tools and other means of production. That was the flipside of Germany’s self-developing (but hardly altruistic) dependency on Russian energy.

All well documented already, including their desperate attempts to hire out software devs for updates and patches for that western equipment (because, again, sanctions: they’re not getting them form western manufacturers any more)…in the face of a brain drain of properly epic proportions.

They may well be warmer than Europeans this winter. Fat lot of good that’ll do when they can barely feed themselves, with their agri-food sectors in production stop for lack of equipment.

Meanwhile, about Orban…

https://twitter.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1551908898575196160?s=20&t=MhCuvDnxZCsBCtk78VXXJA

…some Hungarians are starting to smell the wind, looks like.

nigeldaniel

Not sure if this could go in the Ukraine thread or the Russian thread but I will drop it in here.

Poland is buying a shed load of heavy gear from South Korea.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/27/asia/south-korea-poland-tanks-howitzer-ukraine-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Quote from the above link.

will see Warsaw purchase 980 tanks based on the South Korean K2 model, 648 self-propelled K9 armoured howitzers, and 48 FA-50 fighter jets,

I am not suggesting it will all end up in Ukraine at all!!!

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389363#Comment_119389363

Didn't know that! Utterly despicable and traiterous behaviour, disgusting. I don't support this from my taxpayers money. This doesn't belong to the EU or NATO, it's a serious vulnerability and Russian trojan horse. I'm pretty sure they are allowing KGB operating there too! Very very bad.

"Patriarch" is a gangster and removing him from the sanction list is just plain wrong.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119388203#Comment_119388203

Bollox, you don't have any idea about Hungary or the CEE.

Czechia which was, thanks to its stupid inaction akin to the German one, a country most dependent on Russia gas (100% dependent) has just negotiated a gas contract from the Dutch LNG terminal and that replaced 33% of the consumption. Czech government is amongst the most hawkish towards Russia now and prefers fight for human rights & freedom and against the terrorist Russian state even at the cost of some domestic hardship.

Bulgaria also extremely dependent on Russian gas and criminally disconnected from the supply by Russian gangster state breaching contracts, has also diversified gas supplies from Azerbaijan and by getting US LNG gas.

Where there is a will there's a way.

Hungary regime is an authoritarian regime in bed with the Russian mafia regime and is dependent on it for its survival. They are traitors of the EU and not friends of Hungarian people as you try to frame them into. In fact, they are enemies of the Hungarian people by not isolating Russia as the rest of the EU attempts...

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389434#Comment_119389434

Nonsense.

Historically, Hungary was kicking the ball way above its league and ability. Very high ambitions but much lower ability. They acquired some Ottoman imperialistic habits due to being occupied by them which linger to this very day and are unusual for the region. Austrians and Hungarians were both imperialists but Austria moved on and Hungary didn't. Hungarians are still very resentful and frustrated by the loss of the "empire", the narrative and feelings are similar to the Versailles Treaty situation. There are no bigger whiners, complainers and resenters in the region than Hungarians.

Don't forget that Hungary was on the wrong side in both WW1 and WW2, was a fascist state in the interwar period, had (and still has) border and ethnic conflicts with most of its neighbours.

Hungary is no saint in the CEE region. Long way to go for them to draw the line with the past and become a democratic non-nationalist (aka not chauvinist) EU country.

McGiver

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119389316#Comment_119389316

Yes but no easy way of delivering the products.

And all the customers are much poorer and want serious discounts.

Higher delivery costs + lower selling prices = less money for the Russian mafia.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-aim-have-price-cap-russian-oil-place-before-dec-5-2022-07-27/

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398503#Comment_119398503

Why Nonsense my post agrees with everything you say. They were chastised by the allies post world war 1 and were brutally oppressed by the Soviets post world war 2. And always seem to have a habit of backing the wrong horse and picking the wrong side. Not a country I would have any great sympathy or admiration for with their misplaced imperialistic tendencies bar maybe the brief period around 1956. Where they were led to believe help might be forthcoming from the west.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119398409#Comment_119398409

Yes, am just hoping it is coming towards an end-game here quite soon (like, this year) where Orbán (put the accent in right place this time!) is faced down by the EU, the money gets cut off completely and say in the European council removed.

I'd speculate the NATO (& EU) countries who are supplying Ukraine with various kinds of aid and weapons must have to keep them (and possibly Turkey too?) firmly out of the loop about certain things. It's not ideal in a military alliance I'm sure.

edit: There have been some protests there recently too, so it makes me unsure if the election results/electoral system flatter the ruling party and Orbán + make them look much more popular and in firmer control in Hungary than they really are. If the outside pressure goes up (starting with a loss of all the EU funding) maybe the govt. will crack and be ousted, you never know.

bobowen

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-president-first-lady-pose-for-vogue-photo-shoot-receives-mixed-reactions-3198892

A Vogue photoshoot while Ukrainian wives and mothers bury the thousands of men that he conscripted and sent to the trenches.

A man of integrity.

johnnyskeleton

Mod note:

Bobowen, no trolling please. Banned for a week. Other posters, please do not reply or comment @ him until the week has passed